Draft picks matter
by DJSkillz on Dec 6, 2011 12:07 AM EST
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PrintWell, Matt Capps is back at closer, a move the vast majority of fans are not okay with, and for good reason; draft picks matter. Matt Capps was worth a top 60 draft pick for the Twins in the Rule 4 draft. For free. And they instead passed and went back to Capps. They could have signed a similar, or better (ex; Jonathan Broxton) FA reliever for similar or less money AND received a top 60 draft pick. Again, they passed. And Terry Ryan's comments are concerning for the organization as whole:
Any team should value draft picks, but especially a team like the Twins. The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays have both lapped the field over the last couple of years by wisely accumulating draft picks through the compensation system and their organizations are competing with the two toughest teams in baseball as a result. If anything, the Twins should learn a lesson.I asked Terry how much #Twins consider draft compensation w/ FA decisions: “Not that much. We’ll take it. But we’d rather have the player.”
It's not a choice of a player vs. draft picks that may or may not pan out. It's often a choice between Player A vs. Player B (comparable to Player A, and similar money) AND draft picks:
- Jonathan Broxton just received $4 million on a 1-year deal from the Kansas City Royals. The Twins could have signed him AND received a top 60 pick for less money than they signed Capps for.
- Similarly, Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer are similar players. But if the Twins sign Josh Willingham and let Cuddyer walk, they gain 2 top 60 draft picks. It's not a choice of Cuddyer vs. draft picks. It's a choice of Cuddyer vs. Willingham AND draft picks.
Not all draft picks pan out, just like not all free agents pan out, but they still matter. Even if you hit on top 60 draft picks 25% of the time, that still matters. There is no more valuable commodity in baseball than a cheap, cost-controlled player for 6 years. Draft picks give you more chances at having those. If the Twins do re-sign Cuddyer at this point, as speculated, they will have wasted SEVEN top 60 draft picks in a 2 year span:
2011 draft: Matt Guerrier; Type A under old Collective Bargaining Agreement; signed 3 year deal with the LA Dodgers. Twins lost opportunity for 2 top 60 draft picks. Worst case would have retained Guerrier on a 1-year deal OR had the opportunity to trade him ala Rafael Soriano circa 2009.
2011 draft: Jon Rauch; Type B under old CBA; signed FA deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Twins lost opportunity for 1 top 60 draft pick. Again, worst case the Twins would have retained him on a 1-year deal or maintained a tradeable asset. And Rauch specifically stated his desire to have a chance to close games; he would not have that chance in Minnesota in 2011.
2011 draft: Brian Fuentes; Type B under old CBA; signed 3 year deal with the Oakland Athletics. Twins lost opportunity for 1 top 60 draft pick. Like Rauch, Fuentes wanted a chance to close and also wanted a multi-year deal, neither of which he would have obtained through accepting arbitration.
2012 draft; Matt Capps; modified Type A under new CBA. As discussed above, Twins lost opportunity for 1 top 60 draft pick.
2012 draft; Michael Cuddyer; Type A under new CBA. Again, as discussed above, if he re-signs with the Twins, rather than the Twins signing a guy like Josh Willingham or the like, the Twins will cost themselves the opportunity for 2 top 60 draft picks.
That's 7 top 60 draft picks. In 2 years. Made even more egregious by the fact that according to most scouts the 2011 draft was the best draft in over a decade, putting a premium on those prospects missed.
The Twins need to rethink the strategy of the draft and compensation for Free Agents, and soon. It has already cost them dearly in just two brief years.
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thought our mismanagement of assets
was worth a post on its own.
Fuentes is unfair
He would have gotten a boatload through arbitration. I’ll forego the pick for $10M. Otherwise, well, yeah.
certainly a question mark...
but again, I’m not sure he would have accepted; he wanted a chance to close and a multi-year deal, and got both from Oakland. he’d have neither in Minnesota.
and, most teams have wink-wink agreements with guys over accepting arbitration...
the Twins easily could have worked that in with Fuentes when they acquired him from the Angels.
C'mon
You can have $10M right now and maybe get another contract after this year, or you can have $10.5M over the next 2 years and likely be done. Unless you’re Mariano Rivera. Not a tough choice.
ya, maybe so...
but closing was important to him too. and again, Twins easily could have come to an under-the-table agreement with him when they acquired him, which happens plenty.
Either way, the loss of 6 draft picks is still a huge waste over 2 years.
What kind of "under the table" deal are you talking about?
If you’re saying they’d have paid him off to refuse arbitration… that’s nutty. Like archie was saying, he got $10.5M over two years from the A’s, and he was in line for around $10M through arbitration. You’d have to pay the guy close to $5M to make it worth his while to refuse arbitration, and even that may not be enough – the fact that the signing team would have to forfeit draft picks would drive his eventual contract down even farther. $5M for two draft picks outside the top 15? No thank you.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I'm not talking about paying him...
teams make wink-wink agreements on not offering/players not accepting arbitration all the time.
by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
He was a type B I believe.
Nobody forfeits anything to sign B’s, they are essential free draft pics.
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he's talking about Fuentes accepting arbitration...
because the contract would have been around $10M through arbitration. And my counter is that the Twins might have been able to come to an agreement when they acquired him not to accept, as happens often. It’s not technically allowed, but if you believe insiders like Olney, Gammons, etc., it happens all the time.
Fuentes wasn't signed by the Twins
He was a late-season trade acquisition. Why would he have so much loyalty to the Twins after one month of service that he’d agree to forgo $5M just to help their draft position? Besides, if such an arrangement is not technically legal, Fuentes could just renege and accept arbitration anyway, and there would be nothing the Twins could do about it.
I agree with much of the premise of your article, but the whole Fuentes thing is incredibly implausible.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Right
Guerrier and Rauch should have been offered arbitration. Crain was. Fuentes was too big of a risk. Still, it’s three picks we didn’t get.
The only reason I can think of why they don’t care so much about the Capps and Cuddyer picks is the cap. God forbid a sandwich pick prevents them from signing a top pick because of the cap.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
"...the fact that the signing team would have to forfeit draft picks..."
I was just saying that they wouldn’t, because he was a type B. Just nit-picking, I know.
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I can think of several reasons why re-signing Cuddyer is not a great idea since I think he will almost certainly not be worth it in 3 years.
But if the front office thinks that a valid reason for not re-signing him is a top 60 draft pick, then I want that front office fired.
As archie mentioned above, Fuentes would have certainly accepted, but yeah, for the other relief pitchers, some missed chances.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
it's two top 40 picks in Cuddy's case...
and not valuing those is frankly stupid.
Not valuing them is one thing. Deciding to not bring back one of the foundations of the Twins for the past decade for that reason is another.
That being said, I am not for re-signing him for the amount of money he is looking for.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
that's not what's being debated...
picks are still an asset that matter, a lot. if you can get a comparable player to Cuddyer for comparable money (you can) then you do that and take the picks.
Depends on who signs him
There are going to be a TON of sandwich picks this year because of the change in compensation for relievers (like Capps). If a team who drafts in the top 15 got Cuddyer, or the Phillies signed him (they’re already giving their first-rounder to Boston), then it might not even be two top-80 picks.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
nope...
the new CBA changed that for Cuddy. Any team that signs him isn’t giving up a pick; the Twins just get the pick right before that teams’ pick. And Cuddyer is one of the top 5 or so Type A FA’s on the market this year. So he would be worth two top 40 picks or so.
to clarify...
Type A supplemental picks are always the first to be awarded after the 1st rd (before Type B’s) so in a normal year you’d have your 30 traditional 1st rd picks (assuming all players from the previous years’ 1st rd were signed) and then #31 would be your worst team that lost a Type A FA’s pick. In this year’s case, guess who that team would be? The Twins. The Pirates do not have a Type A player
There are 15 “new” Type A’s under the recently completed CBA:
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
CJ Wilson
David Ortiz
Ryan Madson
Heath Bell
Carlos Beltran
Jonathan Papelbon
Roy Oswalt
Michael Cuddyer
Josh Willingham
Kelly Johnson
Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Francisco Rodriguez
Of these, 9 of them (everyone but Cuddyer/Willingham/Johnson/Madson/Bell/Rodriguez) have the same set-up as traditional Type A’s; ie new team signs them they forfeit their 1st rd pick, top 15 protected, or forfeit their 2nd rd pick. Papelbon and Reyes have already been signed away, Pujols/Ortiz/Rollins will all be re-signed by their current teams, and Beltran has a contracted agreement that he can’t be offered arbitration. That cuts the pool down to 5 potential players that will garner Type A supplemental compensation, plus the 6 “extra” picks in the 1st rd from the Cuddyer/Willingham/Johnson/Madson/Bell/Rodriguez pool.
In addition, there is only 1 compensation pick this year as a result of an unsigned player from the 2011 draft; the Toronto Blue Jays for their failure to sign future Vanderbilt star pitcher Tyler Beede.
There are 10 potential Type A supplemental picks after the 1st rd if you exclude Pujols/Ortiz/Rollins/Beltran, which I would. There are 15 potential Type B supplemental picks (including Capps). Supplemental picks are awarded in this order:
Type A picks, in order of reverse standings from 2011. If a team loses 2, their first one is awarded at their reverse-standing slot, and then they are cycled to the back of the line until all team Type A supplemental picks in that category have been awarded.
Repeat process for Type B.
So, in summation, the lowest POSSIBLE picks for Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, and Matt Capps would be (if we had not resigned Capps):
- (Michael Cuddyer compensation pick in the 1st rd—supplemental under modified Type A status)
- (Michael Cuddyer compensation supplemental pick as Type A player on the worst 2011 team; Pirates have no Type A Free Agents)
- (Jason Kubel compensation supplemental pick as Type B player on the 2nd worst 2011 team; Pirates lost Ryan Doumit; Type B)
- (Matt Capps compensation supplemental pick as Type B player on the 2nd worst 2011 team; Pirates potentially lose Derek Lee; Type B, and the Cubs/Cardinals/Blue Jays also potentially lose 2 Type B’s each, sending their 2nd Type B supplemental picks behind the Twins and Pirates (again))
So yes, WORST possible case in the draft, the Twins have cost themselves the #37/#38/#49/#59 picks. That is, ummm, not good.
and of course...
depending on who accepts arbitration/who signs where, etc. those picks are probably going to be higher than that. it will probably end up being 4 top 50 draft picks that the Twins have cost themselves this offseason.
doh....
I screwed up; Pirates are not #1 (brainfart); Houston is. So the picks would actually be, worst case:
#37/#38/#48/#58.
Houston has no compensatory picks of any time because they are the worst organization in the history of the sport.
Full list of Type A/Type B's...
Type A: Pujols, Fielder, Wilson, Ortiz, Rollins, Papelbon, Reyes
Modified Type A: Cuddyer, Willingham, Johnson, Bell, Madson, Rodriguez
I screwed up with one other thing as Oswalt already was not offered arbitration. So take him/the Phillies out of the mix as well.
Modified Type B: Capps, Oliver, Dotel, Cordero
Type B: Ramirez, Buehrle, Kubel, Francisco, Ibanez, Lee, Jackson, Rauch, Wheeler, Harang, Pena
While I agree 100% that the Twins have not properly valued draft compensation
I would contend that you undervalue what it means to an entire team’s players (and fanbase) to see ideal players like him, Mauer, Morneau &c. getting exactly what they deserve after years of amazing play. That is a BIG shift from us watching helplessly as we hemorrhage talent without a prayer of retention. As much as it can get in the way of winning (no major sports titles apart from the Lynx in 20+ years now), at least Minnesota teams reflect Minnesota’s culture (which in general I would consider a good thing).
I don't not value that at all..
all else being equal, or close to equal, sure, give me the homegrown guy. but in this case it’s not.
and in the end to me the team winning is more important than individual players. if josh willingham and $8M (1 year less IMO) and 2 top 40 draft picks gives you a better chance to win longterm than cuddy (and it damn sure does IMO) then you do that.
Draft picks are equivalent to money
A team should be willing to pay $500k-$1M for the opportunity to pick the 60th guy in the draft. If they can get their player back for a discount or on a long-term deal, then forgo the picks. There is no reason to sign replaceable players for 1 year contracts at market value and forgo draft picks. There is also no reason to not offer arbitration to decent relievers when you don’t have any.
Pretty sure there was a good article on this topic, but couldn't find it to share with you.
While I’m at it, I meant to buy you a sandwich, too
Good post
Rec’d.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
Broxton hasn't pitched in months though
That’s why he’s so cheap. Still, your point is valid. It’s just not that hard to replace Capps for $4.75 million or less.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
Ya and the infuriating thing is people would do it for free on a blog
if you’re a major league GM your job is literally to figure out how to get 2 relievers better than Matt Capps for $4.75 million or less.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Dec 9, 2011 12:52 AM EST up reply actions
Capps
For Capps, we haven’t lost a pick, we just postponed it for a year or two.
I realize losing the pick this year sucks. But, bullpen arms are going like hotcakes. I still would like the Twins to sign two more. For example, Lidge, Gonzalez, Zumaya or Linebrink just off the top of my head.
?
The compensation system has been changed. Capps will not be worth a draft pick ever again.
exactly...
we lost the pick.
there’s also a time value even if we did get a pick 2 years from now. you’re sacrificing 2 years of development time AND taking a huge risk that you ever see that pick again…..for Matt freaking Capps, probably something like the 30th best reliever on the market this year.
Other issues
If you are concerned about a pick having two years of development, then its the wrong business for whomever that guy is.
time has value...
a 2012 1st rd pick, right now, is worth more than a 2014 1st rd pick. Different sport, but in the NFL for instance, for most teams a current 2nd rd pick is equivalent value to a 1st rd pick in the subsequent year, a 3rd rd pick is equivalent to a 2nd rd pick in the subsequent year, and so on. Time has value just like money. If you offer to give me $100 now or $100 2 years from now, I’m certainly taking the $100 now. It’s more valuable. Same principle with draft picks.
It depends if a team is contending right now or rebuilding
It is important to put all your talent in one time period.
This would all be moot if they let teams trade draft picks
Then we would know the value of picks. If you take the NFL as a guide, a top 60 overall pick can get you Randy Moss in his prime.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Or it can get you Troy Williamson
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Right
And the Twins have done very poorly in sandwich picks (Sanchez, Hunt). The hope is that Johnson can do a better job than the current VP of Player Personnel did when he ran the draft.
That said, 2010 is looking like the best draft since ’98 and it did not contain any sandwich picks. The best player taken by the Twins in that draft was the fourth rounder (Eddie Rosario).
The best player picked in the 00s? Albert Pujols, Cardinals (12th round)
The best player taken by the Twins in 2006? Danny Valencia (19th round).
Upshot: The MLB draft is unlike the NFL draft in terms of the value of draft picks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Joe Benson still looks better than Valencia
Parmelee might be just as good too. Valencia just made it to the majors first because he is older.
right...
more picks never hurt though; they give you a greater chance of finding more talent, obviously.
agreed they should be allowed to trade picks; the new CBA opens that door a LITTLE bit with the ability of the revenue-sharing-participating teams’ picks to trade their picks. hopefully the next CBA will finally loosen the reigns completely. it’s never a bad thing to allow more freedom to utilize resources. if a team spends them poorly that’s on them.
Not true.
Read it again. Chances probably are slim. But not impossible.
You still have a player worth something. Debatable if he is worth the pick or not.
Really?
You feel Capps will pitch well enough to have the Twins offer him a $12M contract that he would turn down.
There is that chance
He could bounce back. But most stat heads and scouts alike think that’s unlikely. More likely, he saves 35 games and blows 10 saves, all the while giving Twins faithful heart palpitations. He’s Eddie Guardado from the right side. Is that worth what they’re paying for him? I don’t know. Broxton was cheaper and could be better. Street was more expensive but definitely is better.
My take: I would have rather sent Slowey to Colorado for Street and saved the draft pick.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This is great stuff--well done
The thing about drafting and development is that it works when you have a lot of picks, since any one pick has a fairly low likelihood of working out.
The bizarre thing is that the Twins used to be so cognizant of this. They drafted and developed so many excellent later first and second and third round picks; guys who really contributed to much of the winning over the past decade. Frankly, outside of Mauer, their very high picks (from before they got good) didn’t work out. Mills, Garbe, Johnson. Despite that 3 year run of failure at the top of the draft, they were still able to develop a remarkable number of quality major leaguers.
They seem to have forgotten the value of that.
The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.
yep...
I really don’t understand the change. They have a renowned scouting group, including Ryan, yet they don’t value the draft picks per Ryan’s own comments? That makes no sense. The draft has been a MAJOR reason (the biggest reason) the Rays and Jays have become so good in recent years. You’d think we’d look at them as models, given our chances over the last 2 years. Makes no sense.
100% absolutely freaking true.
It never ceases to amaze me how terrible the Twins are on asset management on both a business and baseball aspect. Imagine if everything in the world was run this way.
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ROHLFING!!!!!
Yeah Wow
Man, imagine if EVERYBODY ran a business like the TWins, a team who won 6 division titles in the last 10 years, mostly on a shoestring budget. We’d all be RICH I tell you, rich!
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
did you miss last year.
The past is the PAST. We made a couple of good trades and had some great draft picks, but that was years ago now. That team is gone.
by b1 on Dec 8, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Lost draft pics need to be thought of as an extra cost to re-signing players, not a bonus.
That is the fundamental error the Twins are making. You could even determine the expected value the draft pics will contribute to the team in terms of average wins or runs produced from each round (including supplemental) and convert it to dollars. Then just add those dollars to the cost of the contract and you get the real economic cost of signing a player, i.e., the opportunity cost. These are really basic economic concepts, Econ 101 type stuff.
FREE AIRWOLF!
ROHLFING!!!!!
Draft picks do matter
and will matter more going forward due to the way the new CBA is structured.
Picks in the past were less important than spending. The Twins have drafted several players that could have been supplemental round picks in later rounds(Nick Burdi, DeAndre Smelter) and not signed them. It is more about utilizing assets and managing risk. Offering middling relievers arbitration could be risky for a team and I don’t mind them passing up picks in the last two years. My thought is that they should have spent more on the draft while they still could.
Now spending will be restricted and we will have to wait and see how it changes the way they operate.
by Matt Garrioch on Dec 8, 2011 9:56 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly Matt
A lot of people don’t realize it yet, but the Rays and Blue Jays and possibly the Royals will be the class of the American league for a lot of years around 2014-2020 , the only teams that may even be able to compete with them are the Angels, Rangers and Yankees, Red Sox because of money.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
The Twins and White Sox and Orioles are looking like the cellar dweller for the next several seasons to me
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
THe Twins have a lot of talent at the lower levels
It might take two or three years, but they will contend again.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
yeah i was probably a little harsh, if we were in the A.L. East or even West it'd be much more difficult
but being in the A.L. Central certainly makes things easier, I hope you’re right C-Math i think they can contend, just not like they have for the last 10 seasons.
I should say, to me, for many of the next several upcoming seasons, as things stand, The only teams i see clear cutt worse off then the Twins are the White Sox, Orioles, and Maybe A’s and Indians, everybody else and I mean everybody in the A.L. has a much better major league team or farm system with impact MLB ready players int them.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 7:36 PM EST up reply actions
RedSox will also compete because of the draft...
outside of those 3 teams, they’ve probably been as good as anyone lately in acquiring picks as well.
Don’t agree on the Twins; I hate how we’ve handled the draft, but we do still have a lot of offensive talent coming in those years. Some of that clearly from the international game.
yeah believe me i hope you're right I just don't see it for the Twins
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know... they're still in the AL East
The Yankees and Red Sox don’t compete because of their farm system. They compete because they buy off everyone else’s farm system. Granted, the Rays have made inroads, but I don’t see both of the two titans of the AL East falling behind both the Rays and the Jays… the Red Sox might, but I don’t see the Evil Empire going anywhere anytime soon.
Either way, I still feel sorry for Orioles fans.
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 11, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
the Red Sox, again...
have had awesome drafts of late in terms of number of picks, etc. too. They’re right behind the Rays and Jays in terms of milking the compensation system if you look back over the last couple of years. Padres would be right behind those. Red Sox have the money AND drafts to stay competitive for a long time. They’ve got as much homegrown talent on their team as anyone.
I suppose it's more that I see the Red Sox failing in spite of themselves...
… what with all the personnel changes. I’ll be curious to see how they manage without Theo.
But my point still stands about the Yankees. As long as they keep giving big payouts to free agents, the best farm system in the world isn’t going to cause Toronto to unseat them. (Although that would be a ton of fun for me.)
by ColossusOfRhode on Dec 11, 2011 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
Problem with your argument
You keep saying “DRAFT PICS MATTER111111!” but you aren’t providing any evidence of their real value. “A bunch of top picks will make John Sickels rate our farm system higher” is not a real measure of major league value. If you want to show how valuable they are, you’d have to go back and see what the average sandwich compensation pick has provided in value. What is the average career WAR of a player the Twins might expect to get with that pick? What does the average compensation pick get for a bonus? The bonus can be quite a bit of money, over half a million dollars for a player years and years from every making the roster, much less being better than a replacement player. Terry Ryan has said they don’t worry about the picks too much because the ability to bring back a player they were comfortable with outweighed such concerns. How many career WAR, at what average cost, are they really giving up for that added psychic benefit?
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
by AdamOnFirst on Dec 8, 2011 1:50 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
there have been about a million studies on exactly that, showing that they matter...
didn’t think I had to go into detail on that when anyone can find it from a simple google search.
Draft picks still have value, even if a lot of them don’t pan out. Guess what; a lot of free agent signings don’t pan out either. The more draft picks you have, the more chances you have to get an impact player under cheap team, cost control for 6 years. That’s the biggest reason they matter so much.
Adam you might have nuked the fridge a bit with this post
I think the larger point is that Matt Capps is not and should not be a “bring back a player they were comfortable with.” If you can find someone equal to or better than Capps for the given money, then a draft pick matters. A one in 20 shot at the next Torii Hunter matters when the opportunity cost is nothing or even negative.
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Dec 9, 2011 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
The OP also cited TOR and TAM
"A bunch of top picks will make John Sickels rate our farm system higher" is a blatant straw man.
If you want 2 put ur money where ur mouth is u should say: “A bunch of top picks will not make us TOR or TAM” or “TOR and TAM are undesirable teams to emulate.”
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Dec 9, 2011 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
DRAFT PICS MATTER111111!
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
by natetheskate on Dec 9, 2011 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
I'm just pointing out possible non-straw man arguments based on your original post
Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?
On the subject of draft
picks. Just curious as to Twins fans’ thoughts on who the Minnesota should pick at #2. If not a specific player, a type of player.
My buddy is a Twins fan, and is looking for some info, and so I figured I’d come here.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 11, 2011 12:20 PM EST reply actions
Either Marrero, Zunino or a college arm....don't like Appell or Gausman too much maybe McCullers?
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
I like Appel a lot...
I’d say one of those 3 guys; Appel, Zunino or Marrero.
Appel’s probably the biggest risk of the 3 (any pitcher is comparatively), but the upside of an ace is tough to pass on.
Zunino is a safe bet to at least be a good, solid C, and soon.
Marrero is a safe bet to be at least a good, solid SS, and soon.
Either way, with one of those 3 guys we should be looking good.
there's also the high school OF Buxton or whatever he could really shoot up the list towards the Twins
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
On
Zunino. Are there any reservations about taking him because of Mauer? Would that be seen that the FO realizes/intends they need to move Mauer to 1B in the nearish future?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 11, 2011 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
1st Q: no i don't think so, The FO has already all but admidted Failure on the Mauer mega deal
they should not have signed him to an 8 yr. deal all as a catcher, obviously.
Everybody seems to know that his catching days will be over long before the contract is up.
2nd Q: likely yes but not even neccesarily, you can never have too many pithers or catchers IMO
Torreabla and Napolia both played large roles for Tex. this year in their run.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Nap- Pole- ia
its almost offically a noun, and verb, and adjective all at once
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
Man
he crushed the ball this past year for my fantasy team.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 12, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
disagree completely...
still love the Mauer contract. 1 hurt year doesn’t change that. The mistakes were Hardy and Ramos trades. Especially Ramos relating to Mauer. I think Mauer will transition slowly over the next 3-4 years to a new position, most likely 3b IMO.
Well, the team is paying Mauer as a catcher for 8 seasons in that contract, that is the mistake
if you pay him to be a catcher for 5 seasons at 23 Million fine….but over the last 3 years he should be making closer to 20 or 22MM.
Don’t get me wrong I believe in Mauer, I believe for some absurd reason he himself may want to catch for 7+ more seasons, I just think that would be ludicrous for both partys.
I cherry Picked the Mauer mega deal and argued sort of negatively towards it, but it is what it is, if anyone Joe deserves that kind of money, and ultimately i have no problem with it, its just frustrating when the team is now, as i forseasbly predicted going to have to retract money from the payroll from 110-112M closer to 100MM.
Although, if the Twins get Willingham and Cuddyer then apparently squadoosh on the money front. MLBtrade Rumors says Willingham is down to the Indians and Twins as his teams, and the Rockies may not get either Willingham or Cuddyer but likely should get whoever the Twins don’t.
It’ll be interesting if the Twins take the (2) picks by letting Cuddyer go to Colorado and live to die with Willingham or they maybe take on both players to play the COF spots and start the year w/ Revere as OF #4.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 11, 2011 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
i just don't see them getting both...
I’d prefer them to sign Kubel and Willingham (and collect picks for Cuddy) but don’t think they will.
As for Mauer, I disagree. I think they knew when they signed it that Mauer might move in 5-6 years of the contract. And I still think he’s worth it. Again, one unhealthy year doesn’t change that for me.
Ya
with the new CBA, picks are very valuable. If I were a Twins fan I’d want the ones I’d get from Cuddyer.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 11, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
yeah Actually for me I agree ideal scenerio #1
1. Kubel and Willingham
2. Willingham
3. Cuddyer
4. Cuddyer and Kubel
5. Cuddyer and WIllingham
6. Kubel
7. Willingham
I think thats how i’d rank it.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 13, 2011 3:18 AM EST up reply actions
re-check , my bad
1. Kubel and Willingham
2. Cuddyer and Kubel
3. Willingham
4. Cuddyer and Willingham (money wise)
5. Cuddyer
6. Kubel
Still not certain though
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 13, 2011 3:22 AM EST up reply actions
really?
I’d take Kubel over Willingham or Cuddy personally. He’s likely to be the most productive of the 3 over the next 3 years IMO. Mainly due to age.
while i'd certainly agree, we're FULL of LH batters
and we need a RH batter no?
I’m going off that context
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 14, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Inflation will happen
Here’s a wild prediction – $20M won’t seem like much of an MLB contract in 6 years. Similar to a $14M deal today. Plenty of 3B are worth $14M.
That's if Mauer transitions to 3b. But...
…how many 1B that hit 10 HR per year are worth that? Mauer hasn’t been playing 3b he has been playing C, COF and 1B. COF and 1B are paid for their consistent offensive skills. If we assume that inflation and the steadly increasing size of MLB contracts. Then 23M per year will seem smaller. That is a likely enough assumption. But, unless Mauer regains 2008 form offensively, the 23M can not be justified unless he is catching a majority of the time. If he switches to 3b unstead of 1b he may be MARGINALLY worth it without 2008 numbers.
homeruns...
are not a good way to measure a player.
you would be right...
if I wrote that he is not worth it because he hits 10 HR a year. But that is not what I wrote or meant. I was using HR’s to exaggerate his offensive deficits comparable to other 23M players and other 1B or 3B players. And you know that. Just like you placed him as a 3B instead of a 1B when talking about inflation to exaggerate the likeliness that if he changes positions that he is worth his salary. Right?!
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