Twins Winter Meetings Morning Update: Capps, Slowey
by Adam Peterson on Dec 6, 2011 7:47 AM EST
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PrintUpdate 9:50 AM
The Rockies have agreed to take Kevin Slowey, according to MLB.com. The Twins will receive a player to be named later. Kevin Slowey is going to hang out with ski bums in Denver; this is an oddly perfect fit.
Good morning everyone. Day two of the winter meetings is upon us, and Twinkie Town will be here throughout the day with updates. Hopefully today is the day we hear one way or the other regarding Michael Cuddyer... Getting right to it:
Matt Capps
By now, most of you have hard about the Matt Capps signing. I think the best we can say is that the Twins now have a closer for 2011. I'm pretty much with Jon from the evening update below, meh. Unless Capps can regain form and miss bats (career low 4.66 SO/9 last year), expect the ninth inning to remain a roller coaster in 2012. I'd rather the Twins have promoted Glen Perkins to closer and signed one or two cheaper bullpen arms, preferably ones with solid strikeout rates, without paying a premium for a "closer". Not to mention an additional supplemental draft pick. But Capps is now a Twin, hopefully he will bounce back and have a solid 2012 season.
Kevin Slowey
According to Buster Olney's Twitter feed, Slowey is a non-tender candidate and the Twins have let teams know he's available. This doesn't come as a surprise to most of us, as the organization has been actively shopping Slowey since last season. In my opinion, it would be a mistake to non-tender Slowey or trade him for a bag of balls. With Brian Duensing looking more and more like a reliever every day, and injury risks associated with Scott Baker and others in the rotation, I'd rather slot Slowey in the #5 spot in the rotation and at least give him a fighting chance at a solid 2012 season and improving his trade value over the summer. Thomas Harding of MLB.com thinks the Rockies' Seth Smith may be a match for the Twins. If the Twins are truly done with Slowey, this wouldn't be the worst trade in the world, and it would be a decent replacement for Jason Kubel.
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I'd do Slowey for Smith.
He destroys RHP (290/364/581). They’d still need to find that platoon hitter to start versus southpaws though, because he struggles (202/269/319).
So why not just platoon him with Plouffe?
He hit .308/.333/.449 against left-handed pitching in 84 PA last season.
Taking a look at a left-handed hitter that doesn’t get platooned, Joe Mauer appeared 223 times against LH in 2009 (vs 383 against right handers), so Smith would roughly still be out there two out of three days.
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 6, 2011 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Cheap Kubel replacement
Still need one RH bat. Bet they’re hoping that’s Cuddyer.
Capps $4.5m one year deal
MLBTradeRumors.com is reporting the deal is $4.5 million for one year with a $6 million option ($250k buyout) for 2013…not good.
Terrible actually.
The worst part is
His option for next year, we clearly aren’t (or shouldn’t) retain him for 6 mil in 2013. We should either go a cheaper route if we’re still rebuilding, or get an actual closer if we’re ready to contend again. And by declining that option in 2013, we won’t get any compensation for his type B free agency label like we would have this year.
Would have much rather received the picks and gone a cheaper maybe in house option.
by ackledude13 on Dec 6, 2011 11:52 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
The buyout is small
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The option year is how much the Twins value Capps
They think he’s worth $6M a season, clearly. They discounted this year to account for the draft pick and the poor performance in 2011.
Upside/downside
If he pitches like he did in 2010, he’ll be worth more than $6 mil on the open market in 2013. If he pitches like he did in 2011, he’ll be worth more than $.025 mil to buy him out.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Call it going cheep or rebuilding
I think you can see the direction the Twins or heading. I’m okay with Capps if the price is right (under 5M). I just don’t see us signing anyone for much money except for Cuddyer and that would come later after he’s gotten low offers. As for Slowey, I think many have come to the conclusion that signing him for 3M to be the fifth starter and later trade bait is fine.
Ranger Bob
posted about the same time as me. Looks like I was close on the Under 5M call. I would have preferred about 3.5M but I knew that was to low to sign a closer, even if you don’t like Capps.
by b1 on Dec 6, 2011 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
He won't be closer by July
He’ll have 10 blown saves by then and Gardy will be onto someone else.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
And we'll be 17 games back instead of 7.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'd bet money your wrong on this one.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
OK
My money’s on Perkins.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
With Capps
Is the 40 man roster at 39?
by clutterheart on Dec 6, 2011 10:04 AM EST via mobile reply actions
My take on Capps
I’m not excited at that price and it sucks to lose the pick. However, putting that behind me am I glad Capps is on the Twins this year? Yes. Players in their prime don’t drop off like he did for no reason. I’m blaming the drop in velocity and K’s on injury. I think he’s a very good bet to come back to form. He’ll have an ERA around 3.00 – 3.50 and a K/9 around 7 again.
So I’m ok with this, I thought he represented a solid bounceback option that could be had for cheap this year. If he had a year in 2011 like 2010 he’d have been looking at a 3-4 year deal worth 6-8 million annually. I thought he could be had cheaper but I’m ok with it, I’d rather do this than have spent 10 million per year on a star closer.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Why would he get better?
The Twins medical staff is in charge of his rehab
It's a big gamble
Two out of the last three years, he’s been horrible. He wasn’t as good as his saves number in the year in between. I hope he rebounds. But I’m not optimistic.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
And if the pain spreads to his elbow, we'll be in even worse shape.
"I wanted to do it because it's fun, it's fun to do bad things and drive into a car."
by PurplePeopleEaters on Dec 6, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not happy about it just saying it's not horrid either
I dunno he was pretty damn good in 2010 by all accounts, saves be damned.
Last year I blame on injuries and not striking people out. I truly believe that had to be related to injury as you don’t see a guy in his prime just drop off in velocity like Capps did. In 2009 if you look at peripherals he may have been incredibly unlucky. His BABIP was .360 where his career is .306. If you throw out 2009 his career average is probably more like .285 (just a rough estimate). This was despite almost having a career low in LD%. Also his HR/FB ratio was way higher than his career average as well that year.
I’m not trying to be a Capps apologist I’m just saying it’s not the worst thing in the world as some have seen. Comments like “he’s not worth the league minimum” or “expect the 9th inning to be a roller coaster” are a bit overblown.
As far as risk, it’s a one year deal in what is likely to be a rebuilding year. So I guess I see it as less of a risk than had they gone out and gotten Ryan Madson for 4years 35 million or traded prospects for Andrew Bailey. Even if I’m wrong and he’s a complete flop, well it’s 5% of the payroll down the tubes. I agree they could have made better moves but I also don’t believe the sky is falling.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Last year I blame throwing every pitch down the middle at the belt
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
haha, touche
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
back up CF
With the Twins being linked to Murphy in Texas and Smith in Colorado I wonder if the Twins are looking for a back up CF so they could trade Revere to Houston for SP Brett Myers and half his contract. We could include Butera to even that one out if need be.
Houston dealt their CF to Atlanta who is similar to Revere and are looking to get younger. We want a SP who is cost effective and the 216 innings at 5-6 million for 1 year with a 10 million 2nd year option is reasonable. Makes too much sence wouldn’t happen.
Doofenschmirtz Evil, INC.
Phineas and Ferb
I wondered the same thing when I heard that
Not necessarily the trade for brett myers but that we may be looking at backup CF options in case we were to move Revere or Span.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
If that is their plan
You have to at least congratulate them for not just putting one of them on the trade block
by twinscrazy_german on Dec 6, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Slowey traded to Colorado for a PTBNL
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
I bet
its a relief pitcher.
Colorado 40 man roster below. Take your pick.
http://colorado.rockies.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=col
Someone eligible for the Rule V draft is the obvious guess
Anyone on the roster would not be a PTBNL. My guess is it is someone eligible to be drafted who will be shipped to the Twins if he’s still around.
+1
I would assume the same thing. Nothing like selling at the lowest possible point.
by Adam Peterson on Dec 6, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't assume
The Twins needed a roster spot so they could draft or acquire someone else. I’m not saying the guy we get will be great, but I doubt it’s a mere fringe player.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That doesn't mean the player is bad
A player like Angel Morales would be a fair return for Slowey. Does Colorado have anyone like that?
One scenario
The Twins could always draft a player from Colorado and Slowey may be the payment so we get to keep that player without having them on the 25 man roster.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Help me out here
Why does PTBNL suggest someone who is not on the roster? Frankly I never really get why PTBNL is used.
In this case it is because of the draft
The Twins probably want a Rockies minor leaguer but he’s at risk of being drafted on Friday. If he gets drafted, they pick someone else. If they take him now they could lose him on Friday instead of Colorado.
Great point.
I forgot most PTBNLs around this time fall into this criteria.
Bag o' balls.
That’s what you get for de-vauluing your own player. We should have just kept him. Now we are down one starting option, and get back probably someone who will never provide positive value to the team. Jim Hoey anyone?
FREE AIRWOLF!
ROHLFING!!!!!
Fire Ryan
What, Too Early?
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
My excitement about Ryan returning has been fully tempered.
The winter meetings so far have played out like one giant face palm. Unless Capps is signing for $1 mil or less, it is a mistake to sign him because re-signing him COSTS us a supplemental draft pick in addition to the $4.75 mil guaranteed, this for an average to above average middle relief arm, with plenty of options still available on the market. We are not going to get offered anything more than a bag of balls for Slowey, because he’s just going to get non-tendered anyways, then teams won’t have to give up anything (besides cash) to sign him. And it boggles my mind that we are even considering bring back Cuddyer. WHY?! He’s going to be expensive, and with the new CBA it will cost US two draft pics to re-sign him. We’ve gone from FOUR additional pics this year to possibly just one, in a year when we desperately need to rebuild.
Ryan seems to have caught the Bill Smith disease of trying to half ass-edly rebuild and compete at the same time. There is something horribly wrong with this front office, and it wasn’t just Smith. I mean how delusional do you have to be to think you have a chance of competing after a 99-loss season?
FREE AIRWOLF!
ROHLFING!!!!!
Is it the GM or the owner?
Bill Smith was fired because his plan didn’t agree with the owner. If he was fired because he wanted to not overpay for closers and trade his older players for a rebuild then maybe the problem lies higher up.
trade proposal
Now our starting pitching is really thin.
Wonder if we could trade Matt Capps for Kevin Slowey?
The sad thing is I would probably make that trade.
Slowey
Seriously — what are the odds that our fifth pitcher will be better than Kevin Slowey? Does anyone really like those odds?
The Twins lost the last 8 starts he made and he had an ERA of 7 and a half.
This is not exactly trading Garza away here for nickles on the dollar.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Why do you feel so strongly on this? He was horrid last year.
Why do you think he is going to turn it around? 2008 was his last good season. He has been a less that 1.0 WAR pitcher for the last three years.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
injury and misuse
maybe he’ll turn it around and maybe he won’t, but he’s fully worth the gamble and should not have been given away for nothing.
This
Pitchers who: have an above average career K rate, a (radically) better than average walk rate, and are 28 years old are worth keeping around. I’d would much rather gamble on Slowey than probably whatever else they are going to do with this rotation.
The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.
by Eric in Madison on Dec 6, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
His career krate
is slightly lower than league avg and hasn’t been better than league avg since 09. It’s been plummeting the last few years.
Agree to disagree then.
I am not sure what misuse you mean though.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
like...
winning the ST rotation job, but not being given it because Blackburn is Gardy’s boy, even though he sucks.
then, with a history of taking a long time to warm up, and never having throw in the pen, being pitched 3 out of 4 days to begin the year, and getting hurt in the process.
that’s misuse.
by DJSkillz on Dec 6, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
From 09-11
Blackburn has managed to throw more innings (over 200 more), with a better ERA+, better WAR and WPA and a much better quality start rate. So, yeah, he sucks but Slowey is even worse.
because Slowey has been injured during that time...
and Slowey’s upside is still greater and he’s younger.
Yes, and relatively speaking, Blackburn's injury is more serious
He still stinks. But his elbow is one slider away from partial to total tear.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
fair enough...
but Blackburn’s never really had any upside to begin with.
News on Cuddyer from Heyman
“The Twins offered Michael Cuddyer a three-year, $25MM deal”
That actually seems....reasonable.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I hear "too much" about every deal made this year
I think we’re seeing salary inflation this offseason.
I do.
The market for Cuddyer hasn’t been nearly as strong as everyone anticipated. Much like Carl Pavano last year.
I do also.
He turned down a 2 year 16Mil.
If I was the Twins I’d have come back with 2 years 18Mil or 3 years 21Mil. I guess they just added another year at 8M.
I’m betting he takes it.
I guess I thought
The consensus estimate of market for him would be around 2/20. I’d take that over 3/25.
But if that’s not an option, and if the Twins can get him for that, it sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
I will for sure have this on hand at all times.
Wish I could have retired it, though.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
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