Twins Winter Meetings Day 2 Wrap: Slowey Traded, Cuddyer Offer On the Table
It's been an active Winter Meetings by Minnesota Twins standards. On day one the Twins put in place the deal for Matt Capps, and today included a pair of Twins-related nuggets:
- Trading Kevin Slowey to the Rockies for PTBNL
- Offering Michael Cuddyer a three-year contract worth $24 million dollars (more or less)
Kevin Slowey
We've already covered this in some detail today, and not much new. Terry Ryan has come on record as stating that a change of scenery was the best option for Slowey, and ultimately it's hard to argue. This has been an unpleasant coupling for both Slowey and the Twins for the last few months. In terms of the player to be named later, Adam commented on it in his evening update.
Michael Cuddyer
If you don't think that Mr. and Mrs. Cuddyer giving birth to Twins today wasn't a sign from the baseball gods for him to return to Minnesota, then you're nuts. Originally it was reported that his offer was for $25 million over three years, but LEN III eventually reported that it's closer to $24 million. While I'm still a bigger fan of Josh Willingham simply because he hits both left and right-handed pitchers pretty well, this isn't a bad offer for Cuddyer.
His market hasn't been as active as people originally thought. The Phillies and Giants are more or less out of room when it comes to outfielders, and the Red Sox appear to view him as a backup option and have been quiet on Cuddyer in recent days. At this point I'd be surprised if Cuddyer didn't come back to Minnesota, but we probably won't have to wait too long to find out.
It should be noted that Cuddyer's versatility could be an asset for the Twins, and stop them from trying to bring in more players who play multiple positions while also not being able to hit. Cuddyer smashes left-handed hitters, can start in right field or first base, and hits right-handed. Those are all needs for Minnesota.
Jason Kubel
Update, 3:50 pm - The Twins have admitted that they probably don't have room for both Cuddyer and Kubel in their budget, but are clearly keeping their options open as Kubel also has an offer on the table from the Twins.
Nothing has changed here, either. You have to wonder what would happen if Kubel turned around and accepted the offer. Would the Twins move on? Or would they say "Okay, one sec Jason, we need to make a quick phonecall..."
The Relief Pitcher Market
With the Matt Capps deal now official, the Minnesota bullpen lines up with Capps as the closer, Glen Perkins as the set-up man, and Brian Duensing as the left specialist. I assume the Twins are eyeing Anthony Swarzak as the long man, meaning they have a trio of relif spots available. One of them is likely to be handed to Jose Mijares, which puts the Twins in need of two right-handed pitchers. The current pool of talent includes Alex Burnett, Jim Hoey, Lester Oliveros and Kyle Waldrop.
Clearly, at least one upgrade is necessary. I'd prefer two, but I'll settle for just one good one.
The bullpen market was active today. The Mets signed Frank Francisco to a two-year, $12 million dollar deal, signed Jon Rauch as their set-up man, and earlier traded for Ramon Ramirez. (That's how you piece together a bullpen, people.) This means that David Aardsma, Francisco Cordero, Ryan Madsen and Francisco Rodriguez are still without suitors, while big money teams like the Red Sox are considering a trade for under contract closers like Huston Street or Andrew Bailey.
Minnesota may have an opportunity to wait out the market, and snag a quality reliever at a reduced price late in the season. This includes middle inning relievers, not just those proven closers. But do they want to take that chance? The bullpen is still a major weakness for this team, and as Ryan has been fond of saying the last few days: you don't want to be left without a chair when the music stops. Well, if he really wants to build a contender for 2012 then he needs to be sure this team isn't left without another quality reliever (or two) when the off-season ends.
Seth Smith
I should take a moment to talk about one of the very few new names to come up since yesterday in regards to the Twins, as there's some (more or less baseless) speculation that he could be the PTBNL for Slowey. Smith bats left handed, just turned 29 and plays outfield, and has put up a pretty decent career in Colorado: .275/.348/.485 in 1449 MLB plate appearances. That's not bad.
But he's another platoon outfielder. Smith destroys right handed pitching, smashing them to a .290/.364/.518 line in his career. That's great, and makes him a good comp for Kubel ( .283/.341/.443 versus righties). Unfortunately, like Kubel, Smith also can't hit a southpaw. He's awful away from Coors FIeld too, hitting just .257/.332/.418 away from home. The Twins would also need to find a platoon partner for him, and while some would like Trevor Plouffe to take that role, Plouffe's MLB sample size is pretty small.
Albert Pujols
The biggest ticket this season appears to be down to three teams, all of them offering ten years and more than $200 million dollars: the Cardinals, the Marlins and the Angels. Personally I'm cheering for St. Louis, because I like the idea of an icon playing in one city for his entire career. Call me sentimental.
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Good stuff as always Jesse...
small point, but I think it’s a little outdated to say that Kubel can’t hit lefties. While he’s not great against them or anything, he has improved greatly against them; check out his splits. At this point he hits them about as well as Cuddy hits righties, for instance.
Also, it’s bad when you are jealous of the Mets on how to build a bullpen. Alderson will do very well there when they finally get out of financial trouble.
Kubel still doesn't hit lefties well, and is a strong platoon candidate.
Cuddy doesn’t hit righties well at this point, either. I agree with that. It’s part of the reason I prefer Willingham: if you’re paying a guy THAT much money, you’re going to want him to play everyday. If he’s playing everyday, he may as well hit both righties and lefties.
but he has improved greatly...
he’s not “horrible” against lefties at this point, is my point. and if we’re going to always mention it about Kubel, then we should mention the same about Cuddy. after all, there are about 3x as many right-handed pitchers out there as left-handers. that matters. and it’s a big reason why i think the “need a RH hitter” mantra is a bit overblown.
and...
if you believe 2009 (pre-injury/Target Field adjustment) is the real Kubel (I still do I guess) then he is actually quite good against lefty starters:
.264/.360/.486/.845
That doesn't tell the whole story.
Against just lefties in 2009, he had a .643 OPS. The “Lefty Starters” stat on BR doesn’t take into account pitching changes.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
sure...
of course it’s just starters. Lefties are incredibly susceptible to lefty relievers though (Loogys). You’re always going to have a problem there. Just the nature of it.
No, it's even less useful than that
The “lefty starters” stat applies to entire games when a lefty was the starting pitcher, regardless of pitching changes. It only exists at all because many early seasons don’t have play-by-play data – you can’t match up exactly which relief pitcher a batter may have faced, so it’s the closest approximation for platoon split. For modern players, I would completely disregard it.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Not that it matters.
Kubel isn’t good against LHP, but he’s been worse. And he’s still a better platoon option than everyday player, just like Cuddyer. This is the overall point, and you’re right about it.
well, i meant the other side of the split...
ie he might be even better against lefty starters, because lefty relievers probably more than counter-weight righty relievers.
but it’s all semantics; you’re right; while i think kubel can still continue to develop further against lefties (as in 2009) ideally he and cuddyer are both simply platoon bats.
It's not "lefty" relievers
Relief pitchers are more effective than starting pitchers, because they generally only have to face hitters once a game. I don’t know what there is for data behind this, but I’d guess that if there’s any additional lefty reliever benefit, it would be because lefthanded relievers are more likely to be used in matchup situations.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
of course...
but lefty relievers are more dominant against lefty hitters than righty relievers are against righty hitters. was my point.
Got a reference for that?
I’m legitimately curious – I’ve never heard that before.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
not a reference...
but I’d guess if you checked the numbers you’d find that in spades. I don’t know why it is; but lefty on lefty is just much tougher in a general sense than righty on righty.
Just speculation
but could it be because righties see righties more often than lefties see lefties?
Neither guy is a middle-of-the-order hitter against his weak side.
I think we’ve mentioned Cuddyer’s weakness against RHP quite a bit on this site, albeit not as much this week. Bobomojo has made it a personal mission of his, I think.
And I agree that having a right-handed hitter isn’t as important as having a guy who can simply hit both lefties and righties. It’s the same philosophy I employ in regards to relievers: I don’t care about matchups, as long as they can get right handed and left handed hitters out.
So it’s a case where it’s combining two issues: lineup balance, and platoon splits. Both could be handled by going after Willingham.
fair enough, Jesse, certainly...
It just seems like we always treat Kubel like a platoon guy, but never Cuddy, and that’s not really fair. Especially when Kubel’s platoon split is actually more valuable than Cuddy’s (ie more righties than lefties).
yah but Cuddy also has the ability to fully grow facial hair better
Patches just doesn’t hold up to him in that regards.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Not going to happen
Unfortunately, Gardy seems to be morally opposed to platooning players, especially established veterans.
I will take responsibility
For some of the baseless speculation, bu I was jut asking since We were rumored to be interested in Smith.
But I think the reason it’s PTBNL is because it deep nds on what happens with Cuddyer. But that’s wild speculation.
Finally, Lester is one of those guys, leaving one more to pick up for the pen.
I would say that Burnett would be one of the others for the pen
At this point, I don’t know if a stint in AAA would help him anymore. Lester could probably still use some time down there.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
It wasn't just you.
I mentioned it, and one or two other people did as well – I think, largely, because we knew the Twins liked Smith. So when we traded Slowey to Colorado we made the connection.
Mostly though, it’s PTBNL because it depends on who the Twins take in the Rule V draft. If the Twins like a guy, but don’t think they’ll be able to keep him on the 25-man roster all season, they can use that PTBNL. That way, it essentially works out like a trade so that if the Twins would take the Rule V off the active roster they wouldn’t have to return him to the Rockies.
I still don't get that
Why would they trade Slowey for a guy they want to draft on Thursday if they have the second pick? I understand the 25-man roster thing. But in this case, there are better options from other teams’ systems than the Rockies for the Rule 5. It seems kind of defeatist to draft a guy you know won’t make your 25-man roster. The hope going into the draft is you can get a guy who can help you in 2012. If you don’t think he will help, don’t draft him. Not with the second pick.
It’s more likely that the Rockies wanted the Twins to pick a guy off their 40-man, but need to wait until after the draft. The last thing the Twins want is to acquire a guy and then lose him in the Rule 5. I’m quite sure the Twins want that 40-man roster spot to sign a pitcher for the rotation, such as Beuhrle or Jackson. For that reason, they would prefer a prospect who is not on Colorado’s 40-man. If they got a guy off of the Rockies’ 40 man, they would need to protect him and would run out of roster spots before signing the pitcher and hitter (Cudddyer). They’ll wait for the draft to choose from who’s left off of Colorados’ 40 man..
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
They can draft someone else they like better
They would essentially get 2 rule V guys, one they can stash.
One thing seems certain
The list of players in the PTBNL are all eligible to be drafted. So it’s a good bet we’ll get at least a AA player for Slowey.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
By "Off their 40-man" I mean "not on their 40-man"
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Pulling a David Ortiz
Cuddyer and Kubel could BOTH accept arbitration and cause the Twins to add $20+ million to their 2012 budget. That is why the Twins have NOT moved on the outfield front. The evils of players in arbitration. Just think if the Twins added Smith from Colorado and took back the dynamtie duo. How much can Cuddyer get in arbitration $12-14 million. How about Kubel, $8-9 million. Talk about sinking a ship. Boston looks like it has to eat $16 million or so with ortiz, or give him $25 million over two years, a figure NO ONE else is biting. Wish the Twins had offed Kubel and Cuddyer both at the last trade deadline in July, and then looked at signing them cheaper this year, if need be, from anotehr team and sacrificing a draft pick or two…again, if need be.
Visit www.TwinsCards.com and check out "rosters" to see my collection!
no chance...
that either one accepts arbitration, which made the shoe-ins to be offered arbitration.
Kubel’s entering his prime years and will sign with someone for a multi-year deal.
Cuddyer’s entering his last contract and will sign with someone for a multi-year deal.
We should let Cuddyer walk and collect the two top 40 picks (which is what we’d get this year with his updated status under the new CBA) and sign Willingham (no picks due from us) instead.
True
But if Cuddyer wants the money he is going to accept arbitration. Twenty-four million over three years represents a salary cut no matter where you look at it and Cuddyer’s not stupid so it is likely that he accepts and takes about $12 million after the raise. Kubel’s interested in west coast teams, but could resign for the right price.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
no, it is not likely.
cuddy and kubel WILL NOT accept arbitration.
It does look like the Mets
Are going away from their tested-and-true method of throwing wads of money into the air and seeing who the bills land on. Maybe this is the start of breaking the curse of being, um, the Mets.
I suspect the Twins are hoping to catch magical leprechaun gold from one of the gazillion relievers they’ve picked up this offseason (to date.) Or are those just bodies to fill spots in Rochester?
Steve Goodman lives.
I think most relievers are just bodies for Rochester.
Not sure about Scott Diamond though. He could fit as a long reliever and spot starter.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
The Mets are broke
The reason they’re not spending money is because their owner gave it all to Bernie Madoff.
One of my favorite stories
The Mets gave Bobby Bonilla a free agent contract back in the 90s that had ridiculous deferrals in it – they’re paying him something like $1.3M/year every year for the next twenty or thirty years starting THIS YEAR (he retired in 2001). Their logic was that they could invest that money immediately and make more than they’d owe Bonilla… and then they did the investing with Madoff.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Bonilla loves the contract because he can be part of the MLBPA
He’s still being paid as a player so he spends all his time on union stuff.
That was part of the Madoff Ponzi scheme
I’m surprised Bonilla’s contract isn’t part of the claw backs.
Speaking of which: Doesn’t it bother people when teams like the Marlins sign all the high-priced free agents on the hope for new stadium funding? It reminds me of what the Diamondbacks did when they signed Schilling and Johnson and won a championship while taking on debt that eventually bankrupted the owners. Something’s wrong here when a team can borrow so much money to buy championships.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
It's kind of like the 2010 Twins
They also bumped up payroll quite a bit based on the promise of revenues from their new stadium, and Mauer’s extension was based on those revenues as well. Obviously, if it ends up being another Diamondbacks situation where they have to start taking loans from the league just to stay afloat, that’s a bad deal, but if they’re just spending their new stadium revenue, I don’t have as big a problem with it.
Of course, if we want to get onto the subject of the ridiculous amount of corruption that went into getting that new stadium in the first place (or have the argument about whether publicly-financed stadiums are a good idea at all), or if we just want to bash Jeffrey Loria (who, we should never forget, basically sabotaged baseball in Montreal so he could get MLB to buy him out for more than market value and allow him to buy a team he thought would be more successful), I’m more than willing to get frothing-at-the-mouth angry.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Well, the Pohlads could cover any losses
Loria, not so much.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Why?
Unless Bonilla “invested” with Madoff, his contract with the team shouldn’t be subject to claw back.
And much is wrong with MLB finances, including that.
They've been pretty aggressive on claw backs
Perhaps there’s a procedural reason they can’t do it, as you say.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Bonilla isn't an investor or an executive
He’s an employee and he has a contract backed by the union. Clawbacks are usually only applicable for people who have fiduciary responsibility. They don’t take back money from Madoff’s janitorial service.
OK, I'm no expert on this
I was just thinking of the Petters case, where employees recently gave back a chunk of money even though they were not investors.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
IIRC
That money came from successful investments. Bonilla’s money isn’t coming from investments, it’s money owed by contract. That the Mets might have used that money to invest wouldn’t change that.
It's not procedural
It’s substantive. You can get clawbacks from people who invested with Madoff and took out more than they invested (or just all of what they invested). But you can’t go after a third party who didn’t invest in Madoff but had a contract with someone who did.
I believe this is called "making it rain."
throwing wads of money into the air and seeing who the bills land on.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 7, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
RHP in the bullpen...
Alex Burnett, Jim Hoey, Lester Oliveros and Kyle Waldrop? I’d say we already know what Burnett can do. I think everyone knows what Hoey can do. Oliveros and Waldrop may not be ready yet, but that’s where the future is, I’d say. Maybe try to find a veteran or two for cheap to hold down those spots, but unless something unforeseen happens (meaning, a for-real pennant run), give the young guys their turn. IMHO.
I agree with this for the most part...
though I also wouldn’t count out Guerra or Gutierrez. I expect both to be up and to be heavy contributors within the pen by the end of this season.
That would be interesting.
I sort of hope Guerra and Gutierrez are not “heavy contributors” by the end of the season, as that would imply the guys ahead of them weren’t getting it done. But I’m kind of anxious to see what we’ve got in them, myself.
I think Hoey is better than that
He at least has upside. I’m not predicting he’ll improve, but he could. Ditto for Oliveros. Burnett and Waldrop are what they are. Mop-up guys at best.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yuck
That’s suck, suck, could suck and suck. I wouldn’t worry about giving any of these guys a “turn”. Hoey, Burnett and Waldrop have all had a shot and failed miserably.
I don't think Howey got mcuh of a shot
Burnett got his chance and failed. But the other two, not really.
Hoey got three relatively brief opportunities and was sent down twice. In AAA, he actually pitched pretty well. In his last stint in the majors, he pitched pretty well, with a 2.53 ERA. He was just so bad early that he burned that impression into people’s brains and his numbers suffered overall. I’m not ready to give up on him yet.
Waldrop got even less of a chance. Not sure what it means, but he was not seen as an option for most of the year, while other guys like Hoey got opportunities. His stuff might not translate to the majors.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I can't find where I saw it
But I think I remember seeing that Waldrop had some insane GB rate in AAA. I would be higher on him than Hoey.
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
that's where i sit...
i still think Waldrop has a chance. Hoey not so much. Age is a big part of that factor too for me. for instance, i still think Burnett will be an “ok” reliever longterm, just because of his age.
Hoey's live arm has some interest
I guess I don’t know enough about Waldrop to make that assessment, so I’d defer to you on that. Agreed on Burnett. The Twins have so few guys who can throw high-90’s, at any level, you’d like to see Hoey figure out how to be succesful.
No Hoey
I don’t care how fast he throws. It’s simply too straight of a fastball. I know he’s working on an offspeed pitch. If he can make it a consistent pitch, he might be ok.
Twins just can't quit Cuddyer.
Just saying.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

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