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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Three Moves Guaranteed to Bolster the Twins

First, a bit of an introduction before we get down to brass tacks. If you’re reading Twinkie Town, there’s a decent chance you’ve read me at any number of my other outlets. I’ve written pieces or excerpts that have appeared at Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, Fangraphs, Twins MVB, and a handful of other places. I’ve done play-by-play and color commentary work for the Minnesota Sports Broadcast Network. I’ve also done a little television work for GameOn!, which is a show that is broadcast on Sunday mornings on a local Fox affiliate. In short -- or rather long -- I’m attempting to be a bit of a mover and a shaker in the sportswriting world. My goal is to do something media-related as a full-time job; it’s an ambitious goal, but I won’t let hard work get in the way of that.

Star-divide

Nonetheless, my debut column is on three realistic free agent moves I think could really round out the Twins offseason. I've been all over the map in my reactions to each of the Twins signings thus far, but I don't think it's by any means a lost cause to fix this team up into a contender as soon as next season. I'm serious.

As I began penning this column, I pondered including reliever Frank Francisco, whom the Mets then deftly nabbed on a two-year pact for $12 million total. Nevertheless, there are still plenty of options for the Twins, whom I think can get back into contention if the club plays its cards just right.

C Kelly Shoppach

One glance at Shoppach’s .176/.268/.338 triple-slash from 2011 may induce peristaltic reactions, but hear this one one. First of all, Shoppach’s a catch-and-throw guy (three seasons > 35% CS rate) who was widely lauded for his defense when he was a young man gracing the pages of SoxProspects.com. Now, after seven big league seasons, Shoppach is a free man after his 2012 option was declined by the Rays. Shoppach’s hit a relatively well .224/.315/.417 over just under 1500 plate appearances (96 OPS+/.322 wOBA), and provides plenty of pop (.193 iso) to go with surprisingly good plate discipline (.091 isolated OBP) despite such poor contact rates (63.7 percent versus a typical league average of about 80.5 percent). He also absolutely pounds lefties (career .274/.373/.536), which would be a welcome addition on a team that combined to hit port-siders at a collective .249/.309/.361 mark. For a million bucks or so, Shoppach could render Drew Butera even more irrelevant, start against lefties at either catcher or maybe even first base, or even at the very least, pop a few homers as a power bench bat that the Twins will sorely need come opening day.

OF Josh Willingham

I’ve advocated Willingham to the Twins since the beginning of free agency for a few key reasons. For one, he’s got a comparable bat to the man whose spot he’d likely take in the lineup, Michael Cuddyer (wOBAs of .348 and .345 - advantage: Willingham), no discernible platoon splits (.862/.827 RHP/LHP OPS vs. .760/.869 for Cuddyer), and should possibly come more cheaply than the proud father of twin babies born on Tuesday. In fact, for even money I’d still take Willingham. I don’t put too much stock in ‘new blood’ in the clubhouse, but it’d be nice to see a shakeup to the country club at Target Field. Above that, however, is that the club would pocket two draft picks when Cuddyer signs elsewhere, which is a must for a farm system that could use quality or quantity as it pertains to stocking its farm system. Finally, Willingham poked 15 of his 29 home runs at O.co Coliseum, which proved nearly as cavernous as Target Field with its 97 park factor according to Baseball Reference. Do yourself a favor Terry Ryan, and serve yourself a side of agreeable pork.

Yes, that Rich Harden. But with a twist: make him a power reliever. I openly bandied about this notion in a recent FanGraphs column I wrote, and I think Harden would really make a good power reliever. Think about it: a fireballer with great K rates (9.2 career K/9), good fly ball rates (40.8 percent would play up at Target Field), and durability issues. Why not let him let loose for an inning or two at a time? I’m no doubt oversimplifying here, but the Twins need to be creative given the budgetary issues. Matt Capps wasn’t very imaginative; the Twins value predictability -- good or bad, to be sure -- but with Harden, the Twins can take a stab that could pay off huge dividends for only a small investment. Think about it: every team that has went deep in the playoffs the past few seasons has had an investment go really, really well. Lance Berkman of the Cardinals comes to mind immediately, as do about half of the Rangers. The Twins don’t need to blow the budget on a risky player, but a cheap one-year deal on Harden would neither kill the budget, nor have much of a bust factor.

I’ll readily admit that none of these three players are likely to don Twinstripes in 2012, but they’re all reasonable acquisitions that could be made based on a general idea of how much money Ryan has to work with. Let’s hear some of your ideas!
Poll
Would you be on board with these suggested moves?
Yes
347 votes
No
168 votes

515 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 70 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I don't really see the need for Shoppach after signing Doumit

Agreed on Willingham and Harden as a RP.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Dec 7, 2011 3:03 PM EST reply actions  

+1...

still need 1-2 starters though.

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks

I like nothing more than writing and chatting about the Twins, especially with other fans. That’s how I’d like to be different than other writers/media types: I hang out in my comments sections a lot.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Which....

…is silly. His numbers across the board are the same to Mauer and Butera.

Butera would be Double-A roster glue in ANY other organization.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed...

if Drew’s last name was “Jones” instead of Butera he never would have even made it to AAA. Nepotism.

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You'd think....

…his dad was a legendary player.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I love your sarcasm

9 seasons, seven teams, 359 games, 597 OPS.

If Drew comes anywhere close to that career, dozens of AA catchers will have a right to say there is no justice in the world.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 7, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Haha sorry....

meant to have my body as a continuation of the header. “You’d think he was a legendary player.”

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 6:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Without looking too deep

I’d be ok with Shoppach and using Domit as a RH DH sometime C, 1B, RF.

I’m generally against Willingham for reasons I’ve posted elsewhere but I wouldn’t go nuts if we signed him.

No on Harden.

by Gunnarthor on Dec 7, 2011 3:09 PM EST reply actions  

Well...

I think Doumit is better suited DH’ing more often than not. Shoppach is regarded for his defense and has a little pop. If he could be had for a million bucks, I’d probably go for it.

Why no on Harden? I say if the price is right (incentive-based), may as well try.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:17 PM EST reply actions  

I agree with this

I’m for anything that keeps Butera in AAA.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 7, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Free bit of media advice

Don’t start your articles with, “You probably know me, I’m sort of famous.” Total turn off.

As for the moves:

1. I don’t think we need another back up catcher, and Shoppach has never really impressed me.

2. I’m on board with Willingham.

Also, if you’ve been reading Twinkie town, you’d know that none of these are new suggestions here.

3. Um, no. If we’re going to have Harden on the roster, why wouldn’t we want to maximize his value by putting him in the rotation? And no reliever ever pays off “huge dividends.”

But I like Harden as a starter, again as a low-risk, high-reward gamble. I think we need one of those in the rotation. And we need a bat for the outfield like Willingham.

by amiller92 on Dec 7, 2011 3:19 PM EST reply actions  

Not my intent...

That wasn’t my intent at all. If that were the case, I’d have gone into detail. It’s not the case either — I’m not anybody other than somebody trying to work hard.

Thanks for the reply on the moves. Always love to hear points and counterpoints.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

:)

I appreciated this. Ha ha.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't take it that way at all for the record

Agreed on all three moves actually.

I like the Harden move if he’ll sign for reliever money. With his injury history he may be in Kerry Wood territory where this makes the most sense for him now.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Dec 7, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Right

I’m not saying I don’t like him as a starter. But, if he’s only good for 100-120 innings a year, I want to choose which innings those are, based on how effective he is.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Sorry

That was probably excessively snarky. Apparently I am grumpy today or something.

Welcome aboard.

by amiller92 on Dec 7, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

No Worries

It’s no big deal. I hear where you’re coming from; it just wasn’t my intent.

We’re all good.

Thanks for reading.

by brandonwarne52 on Dec 7, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

don't feel bad,

it came across that way to me too.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Dec 7, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

and yet another example of why I am not working hard to try and be an author anywhere.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Dec 7, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I've heard the Harden-as-reliever thing before, and I like it.

I tried to fit him into my off-season blueprint but ran out of room. He’d certainly be effective, and on a deal for $3 million wouldn’t be a bad choice.

by Jesse on Dec 7, 2011 4:08 PM EST reply actions  

Bedard ditto...

I’d still try either/both as starters, but both could be dominant relievers IMO.

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions  

could be...

i don’t want him though; i think he’ll continue to break down at this point and i think he’d be terrible in the AL.

by DJSkillz on Dec 8, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd be OK with him on a one-year deal with an option year

But I wouldn’t expect him to be a front-line starter anymore. He’s like Pavano. A solid, but broken, innings eater.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 8, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I like these moves but

Cuddy needs to make his mind up so the Twins know how much money they have.

by clutterheart on Dec 7, 2011 6:05 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Good stuff Brandon...

welcome to twinkietown!

Couple thoughts:
Last years Twins team was mocked for their DL stints I really think the last thing that Front Office, it’s Medical Staff and Twins fans in general want to hear are that the Twins signed either Shoppach or Harden. Neither have the ability to stay healthy anymore.

On top of that, taking pitchers whose injury histories have been of the elbow and shoulder variety (Harden has extensive histories of both) and thinking that you are going to maximize his innings by plopping him in the bullpen for 50 games at 1-2 innings a pop is a move that will pay off 1 out of 100 times (I just made that up, hopefully you get the idea).

You will see Harden 15-20 times next year, no matter what (IMO)… and in the bullpen, without proper rest (2 days minimum), that shoulder and/or elbow is destined to explode… time bomb… tick, tick, tick.

Willingham won’t sign until Cuddyer does. Cuddy starts the slotting process. My guess is the Twins can’t afford him (BECAUSE 3+ MILLION PEOPLE PAID A TON TO SEE THIS TEAM LAST YEAR ~ DON’T ASK ME HOW THAT IS EVEN REMOTELY POSSIBLE!).

I am a bigger fan of Cuddy than I am Willingham ~ that is strictly as a fan ~ if we need a LF/DH only Willingham is probably the guy… I think we need a plan b at 1b for Morneau ~ I don’t see Doumit being anything other than a once a month fill-in there.

twitter@al_damlo.com

by Al Damlo on Dec 7, 2011 6:20 PM EST reply actions  

On the other hand

An arm injury for Harden would be something for which the training staff could credibly disclaim responsibility. ;)

And I think plan b at first is Mauer and Parmalee. Although I. That situation I’m not sure which is worse: Doumit every day behind the plate on defense or cuddy at first being replaced in the outfield with a weak bat.

by amiller92 on Dec 8, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions  

good take

It is such a shaky proposition as soon as Morneau goes down… dominos fall and we are stuck with a really weak line-up, shotty defense and losses piling up.

twitter@al_damlo.com

by Al Damlo on Dec 8, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Three Moves Guaranteed to Bolster the Twins

I am on board with the Willingham thing. Shoppach? I never gave it a thought, but it is interesting idea and not bad either. Rich Harden I feel might be good but then the Twins are not about to spend big time yet in hopes to land Cuddyer and Kubel for the next season. The Twins are rebuilding, even if they don’t want to admit it to the fans. Pitching is big time concern and looking for guys like Parmalee, Benson and Hughes to blossom while they wait it out. They have some young pitchers that they are crossing their fingers on this coming year too.

by Poncee on Dec 7, 2011 6:38 PM EST reply actions  

Three Moves Guaranteed to Bolster the Twins

I might also add – The Twisn management got burned with Mauer and Morneau last year and they don’t seem to want to go overboard until they see what those two have to offer this coming year. (They recieved big contracts and haven’t done squat since they signed). Lirianno and Blackbourn are also under the radar and if they falter again this year I feel they will be traded away real quick.

by Poncee on Dec 7, 2011 6:46 PM EST reply actions  

I've been saying this all off-season..

We NEED Punto back. In all seriousness. I don’t see anything wrong with giving him 3 years/7.5 million. I would love a Morneau/Punto/Carroll/Valencia IF, it would be solid defensively and have a very high OBP. He’s a good team guy, no matter how bad his power is. He’s got a career .325 OBP and his last 4 years (since he’s hit 30) it’s been up around .345. That’s ideal for a 9 hitter with a great glove.
Span, CF
Carroll, SS
Mauer, C
Morneau, 1B
Cuddyer or Willingham, RF
Valencia, 3B
Doumit, DH
Benson, LF
Punto, 2B

Get an improved BP, better SP’s, and we’re looking at .500 again. In a few years of Terry Ryan management, we should be battling for the Central Crown again.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 7:51 PM EST reply actions  

The OBP of this infield:

Past 4 years:
Morneau: .375
Punto: .345
Carroll: .361
Valencia: .314 (2 full seasons, but it’s his age 27 season. Expect a breakout. (.280/.345/.450))

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Why on Earth

would you overbid by 2 years on Punto? He’ll get a one year deal. Why throw 3 at him?

by archie2227 on Dec 7, 2011 7:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd love Nick Punto back as much as the next, uh, Nick Punto lover

But 7.5 million for 3 years? Have you been smoking what Jessy S been smoking?

The Cardinals didn’t even pay him $1 million for him last year.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 7, 2011 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

He should get a raise...

The dude had a .388 OBP or something like that. I think it’ll take at least 2 mil to get him. I really don’t care if it’s a 3 year deal or a 1 year deal. At 2.5 million a year, he’s a very capable utility infielder if nothing else, so even the 3 year deal I mentioned would not strap us for cash. I would in no way be upset with a 3 year deal, but maybe it would only take 5-6 million.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

That's because he was hitting in front of a pitcher

in the NL.

He’s not getting any younger either.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 7, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Neither is Cuddyer

But we all seem to want him…
Some guys play better at 35 than they did at 27. That’s just the way it is.
I understand he was hitting in front of a pitcher. I am not saying he’ll repeat that number.
I think we could expect a .260 BA with a .340 OBP though if he were our everyday 2B… and from the 9 hole, sometimes the best we can ask for is a guy to consistently get on base.
I obviously do not think he’s a guy to build around. I think he can bring the glue to this team that it lacks and provide at least average production.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Cuddyer was a little better than Punto last year

I think. Punto is also 2 1/2-3 years older than Cuddyer.

Don’t get me wrong—I LOVE Punto. Always have. But got to be realistic.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 7, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I know Cuddyer is better. And younger.

But Punto is much cheaper and something that this team could use. That’s all I’m saying. I think he could be a solid piece. I believe he knows his role, and he will succeed in that role. For us, that would be a 9 hitter that gets on base and plays solid defense at 2B. That’s all we’d ask for.
If we can get him for 1.5, great. If it takes 2- so be it. I’d feel much more comfortable with him there than Casilla.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

He’s even cheaper than $7.5 m for 3 years… by a lot…

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Dec 7, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Punto has never had a good full season in the majors

He’s had two partial good seasons and 7 horrible seasons in 10 years. Last year, he had one two-month stretch of above average play. With the Twins, he had five chances to prove he was a starter. Every time they tried that, he failed. The only good seasons were ones in which he came off the bench to play every day closer to midseason. Not only does he not deserve a sixth chance, he’s less likely to succeed the older he gets.

Comparing him to Cuddyer is just ridiculous. Punto’s career OPS+ is 76. Cudyer’s is 111. Punto’s only reasonable spot in the lineup is ninth. Cuddyer’s a clean-up hitter. This team needs a power hitting outfielder, not a third utility player. We already signed our answer to Punto: Jamey Carroll, who’s a vast improvement over Punto. If we signed Punto, he would be displacing Nishioka, not Casilla. I can give you a dozen more good reasons not to sign Punto. But I’ll stop now.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Dec 7, 2011 11:32 PM EST up reply actions   3 recs

You could get that

Or you could get 220 ba and 300 obp.

by amiller92 on Dec 8, 2011 8:43 AM EST up reply actions  

He had 166 PA last year

He is an injury liability. Plus as myjah said, he was hitting 8th.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Dec 7, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions  

exactly...

he barely plays anymore, is not that good defensively anymore, and is a trainwreck offensively.

plus, the biggest problem with punto is gardy. gardy LOVES him, and will play him as much as he can. we should keep the scissors (Punto) away from the 4-year old (Gardy).

by DJSkillz on Dec 7, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I guess a WS ring is worth 1.7m a year now

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will

by SooFoo Fan on Dec 7, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Other than Verlander and Cabrera

I don’t think Detroit is particularly special. Delmon Young was their three hitter after all.

by amiller92 on Dec 8, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Special enough to get into the ALCS last season.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
#OccupyTwinkieTown

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Dec 8, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm definitely not comfortable having Doumit as the backup 1B

I don’t think he’s played more than a handful of games there in his career. So I think Cuddyer provides more value than Willingham for the Twins.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will

by SooFoo Fan on Dec 7, 2011 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

Chris Parmalee.

He’s a good player, and Ryan loves to run with young talent from our organization.
He’ll be 24 in Feb.
I think it’ll be handled by Doumit unless Morneau gets hurt again, in which case Parmalee and Doumit split time there.
I don’t see us spending on a FA when we’ve already got almost 20 million tied up in that position.
Just my opinion.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Parmelee needs another year or half year in AAA IMO

I don’t know where people are getting the idea he’ll start the year with the major league club.

One good month does not a good player make.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will

by SooFoo Fan on Dec 7, 2011 8:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not saying he'll start on the major league club.

I’m saying he’ll start at AAA and only be brought up if Morneau gets hurt. I think Parmalee is capable of contributing at the major league level, but another year would benefit him. The only way he’s on the Major League club when we break camp is if Morneau is hurt.

by mak07 on Dec 7, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, alright

I see where you’re coming from.

"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is only a hole in Arizona." ~George F. Will

by SooFoo Fan on Dec 7, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm always up for taking a flier on guys with lots of talent, but with

age, injury, or recent-performance issues. Harden seems to perennially fit into one of those categories.

by Luke in MN on Dec 7, 2011 8:00 PM EST reply actions  

Welcome to Twinkie Town!

I’ve read a few of your articles on fangraphs and have enjoyed them…and I’m going to Northwestern college next year where, if I’m not mistaken, you graduated from? Anyway, I’ve been a huge proponent of both Josh Willingham over Cuddyer from the start of free agency as well precisely for the reasons you listed, even though I would miss Cuddyer. Willingham is statistically easily the better choice.

I’ve also loved the idea of bringing Harden in, but for some reason didn’t think of him as a reliever which I do believe he would be perfect for. For sure a better move than making him a starter now that I think about it.

I hadn’t really thought about Shoppach though. Solid defensive guy with pretty good power and definitely and upgrade over Butera. Shouldn’t cost too much either, I’d think.

Anyway, I feel a lot more baseball savvy just knowing that I’m not the only one with these opinions…haha great post!

by jkolo55 on Dec 7, 2011 9:47 PM EST reply actions  

Well done, sir.

I nominate thee for tweet of the night.

@jonahkeri jonahkeri
Giving up wee hours beers to play 7 am pickup hoops with baseball writers…ballin or stallin?

jonahkeri jonahkeri
(I laughed) RT "@brandonwarne52: shirts and uh, double shirts?

by archie2227 on Dec 8, 2011 1:32 AM EST reply actions  

Brandon, you're on TT now, too? Welcome!

Rising to the top! You’re going to need a less criminal picture on your website, though…

by bl4ckduck on Dec 8, 2011 3:40 PM EST reply actions  

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