Projecting Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Gardenhire: (Whispering) I love you, Tsuyoshi Nickipunto.

I've got a fever. And the only cure is more....Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Working out projections for guys who have been around Major League Baseball are hard enough on their own. So when you have a player coming over from Japan, from a league that uses smaller and harder baseballs, from a league that runs on a different timescale and a different level of competition, what do you do? Of course there are weights to everything these days, but that doesn't mean the Oracles all agree.

Below is a sample of what projection systems are predicting for Nishioka in 2011...as well as what I penciled him in for a couple of weeks ago. (For those who will wonder: CAIRO is based on Marcel, there are no Chone projections for 2011, and I haven't downloaded Bill James' projections.)

Which one do you think will be the most accurate?

Oracle

AB

HR

SB

AVG

OBP

SLG

Rotochamp

542

6

34

.283

.336

.400

CAIRO

532

10

19

.273

.346

.400

ZiPS

601

7

38

.281

.337

.403

Jesse

557

8

22

.284

.342

.406

ZiPS is the highest on playing time, while Rotochamp is almost as enthusiastic about his ability to steal bases. I appear to be the most optimistic in terms of the triple slash (two OPS points higher than CAIRO). Middle ground is pretty well spread out in terms of the counting stats, while the rate metrics don't have a whole lot of variance.

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