Trade Liriano, It isn't just crazy talk - (Follow Up)
by Al Damlo on Feb 10, 2011 12:31 PM EST
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In today's Star Tribune, Joe Christensen touches on an interesting topic. The market value of Francisco Liriano versus the value the Twins put on him. Liriano and his handlers have started the negotiations of his contract at 3 years/ $39M but the Twins apparently have no interest in making that kind of commitment to him. The Twins have recently agreed to terms with Liriano on a 1 year deal worth $4.3M to avoid arbitration and is under team control for one additional year. Are the Twins going to just let Liriano walk or will they pony up for a long-term deal to keep him?
VALUE
That question got me to thinking about the word value. A starting pitcher is a very unique player on a team. No single player has more control over the outcome of a game than a starter does. As a Twins fan I love that our local nine is relevant, plays for the Division title every year and has played in some post season games over the last 10 years. I have to admit, now that we have gotten where we are, I want more.
Losing to the New York Yankees last year left an awful taste in my mouth. The regular season was a blast; Winning 94 games, Mauer hits .327, Delmon drives in 112 runs & no one can deny that Pavano was really fun in winning 17 games. It wasn't enough though. We need to beat the Yankees.
It takes a really special player to toe the rubber in a playoff game against the likes of the Yankees. They have the history behind them, the mystique & a great hitting line-up to contend with. Who will the Twins throw out there if it happens again? Francisco Liriano, of course.
All that being said, Liriano isn't on the hill because he is one of baseballs great pitchers. He is on the hill because he is arguably the best pitcher on a very good team.
The Rub
Going through all major league rosters I came up with 55 other Starting Pitchers that I would rather have start game #1 vs. the Yankees than "Franchise". Here is the list. Please don't get hung up on the order that they are in, I didn't put too much time into that, but rather just wanted a list of players in 2011 that, if healthy, I would rather be facing the Bronx Bombers than Liriano.
| Rank | Pitcher |
| 1 | Roy Halladay |
| 2 | Tim Lincecum |
| 3 | Ubaldo Jimenez |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez |
| 5 | Josh Johnson |
| 6 | Cliff Lee |
| 7 | David Price |
| 8 | Jon Lester |
| 9 | Justin Verlander |
| 10 | Jared Weaver |
| 11 | Chris Carpenter |
| 12 | Clayton Kershaw |
| 13 | Tim Hudson |
| 14 | Roy Oswalt |
| 15 | Zach Greinke |
| 16 | Fausto Carmona |
| 17 | Mat Latos |
| 18 | CC Sabathia |
| 19 | Tommy Hanson |
| 20 | Matt Cain |
| 21 | Mark Buerhle |
| 22 | Brett Myers |
| 23 | Adam Wainwright |
| 24 | Ryan Dempster |
| 25 | Clay Bucholtz |
| 26 | Brett Anderson |
| 27 | Erik Bedard |
| 28 | Dan Haren |
| 29 | Chad Billingsley |
| 30 | Edinson Volquez |
| 31 | Cole Hamels |
| 32 | Yovani Gallardo |
| 33 | Madison Bumgarner |
| 34 | Matt Garza |
| 35 | Dallas Braden |
| 36 | Jeremy Guthrie |
| 37 | Johnny Cueto |
| 38 | John Danks |
| 39 | Trevor Cahill |
| 40 | Colby Lewis |
| 41 | Ervin Santana |
| 42 | Max Scherzer |
| 43 | Wandy Rodriquez |
| 44 | Jeremy Hellickson |
| 45 | Ted Lilly |
| 46 | John Lackey |
| 47 | Ricky Romero |
| 48 | C.J. Wilson |
| 49 | Phil Hughes |
| 50 | Stephen Strasberg |
| 51 | Josh Beckett |
| 52 | Bronson Arroyo |
| 53 | Jake Peavy |
| 54 | Gavin Floyd |
| 55 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| 56 | Francisco Liriano |
You can argue the list. It is simply an opinion of evaluation of talent. I personally would take anybody else on this list to pitch game #1 than Frankie.
Using this assumption I put him as the 56th best pitcher in baseball. I mean, what is a better indicator of value than who you would want to start a playoff game for you? There is an ability to throw 200+ innings during the season, keep their team in a pennant race, stay off the DL, etc. This argument to move Liriano up on this list doesn't hold too much weight with me as a guy who had arm trouble in the Minor Leagues and then Tommy John Surgery at the Major League level. There is definitely an injury concern that looms with Liriano.
Value Equals Salary?
This isn't a fair world. Some people get paid less to do better work and vice-versa. In a perfect world the best pitchers would get paid the most and the next best would get slotted financially accordingly. If that were the case, based off 2010 salaries Francisco Liriano would get slotted in at...
| Rank | NAME | AGE | SALARY |
| 1 | CC Sabathia | 30 | $24,285,714.00 |
| 2 | Johan Santana | 31 | $20,144,707.00 |
| 3 | Carlos Zambrano | 29 | $18,875,000.00 |
| 4 | John Lackey | 32 | $18,700,000.00 |
| 5 | Barry Zito | 32 | $18,500,000.00 |
| 6 | A.J. Burnett | 34 | $16,500,000.00 |
| 7 | Chris Carpenter | 35 | $15,840,971.00 |
| 8 | Roy Halladay | 33 | $15,750,000.00 |
| 9 | Hiroki Kuroda | 36 | $15,433,333.00 |
| 10 | Roy Oswalt | 33 | $15,000,000.00 |
| 11 | Jake Peavy | 29 | $15,000,000.00 |
| 12 | Derek Lowe | 37 | $15,000,000.00 |
| 13 | Mark Buehrle | 31 | $14,000,000.00 |
| 14 | Ryan Dempster | 33 | $13,500,000.00 |
| 15 | Ted Lilly | 35 | $13,000,000.00 |
| 16 | Jeff Suppan | 36 | $12,750,000.00 |
| 17 | Carlos Silva | 31 | $12,750,000.00 |
| 18 | Aaron Harang | 32 | $12,500,000.00 |
| 19 | Jeremy Bonderman | 28 | $12,500,000.00 |
| 20 | Josh Beckett | 30 | $12,100,000.00 |
| 21 | Oliver Perez | 29 | $12,000,000.00 |
| 22 | Kevin Millwood | 36 | $12,000,000.00 |
| 23 | Bronson Arroyo | 33 | $11,625,000.00 |
| 24 | Javier Vazquez | 34 | $11,500,000.00 |
| 25 | Jake Westbrook | 33 | $11,000,000.00 |
| 26 | Ben Sheets | 32 | $10,000,000.00 |
| 27 | Aaron Cook | 32 | $ 9,625,000.00 |
| 28 | Kyle Lohse | 32 | $ 9,187,500.00 |
| 29 | Tim Lincecum | 26 | $ 9,000,000.00 |
| 30 | Cliff Lee | 32 | $ 9,000,000.00 |
| 31 | Tim Hudson | 35 | $ 9,000,000.00 |
| 32 | Randy Wolf | 34 | $ 8,800,276.00 |
| 33 | Brandon Webb | 31 | $ 8,500,000.00 |
| 34 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | 30 | $ 8,333,333.00 |
| 35 | Dan Haren | 30 | $ 8,250,000.00 |
| 36 | Jamie Moyer | 48 | $ 8,000,000.00 |
| 37 | Scott Kazmir | 27 | $ 8,000,000.00 |
| 38 | Joel Pineiro | 32 | $ 8,000,000.00 |
| 39 | Jason Marquis | 32 | $ 7,500,000.00 |
| 40 | Brad Penny | 32 | $ 7,500,000.00 |
| 41 | Zack Greinke | 27 | $ 7,250,000.00 |
| 42 | Felix Hernandez | 24 | $ 7,200,000.00 |
| 43 | Carl Pavano | 35 | $ 7,000,000.00 |
| 44 | Justin Verlander | 27 | $ 6,850,000.00 |
| 45 | Cole Hamels | 27 | $ 6,650,000.00 |
| 46 | Rich Harden | 29 | $ 6,500,000.00 |
| 47 | Chris Young | 31 | $ 6,375,000.00 |
| 48 | Ervin Santana | 28 | $ 6,000,000.00 |
| 49 | Jeff Francis | 30 | $ 5,750,000.00 |
| 50 | Jorge De La Rosa | 29 | $ 5,600,000.00 |
| 51 | Fausto Carmona | 27 | $ 5,087,500.00 |
| 52 | Vicente Padilla | 33 | $ 5,025,000.00 |
| 53 | Paul Maholm | 28 | $ 5,000,000.00 |
| 54 | Wandy Rodriguez | 32 | $ 5,000,000.00 |
| 55 | Adam Wainwright | 29 | $ 4,837,500.00 |
| 56 | Jon Garland | 31 | $ 4,700,000.00 |
4.7 Million Dollars
Francisco Liriano is asking for $13M a year for the next 3 years. According to my slotting theory, Francisco and his agent consider him the 15th best pitcher in baseball; tied with Ted Lilly. Now, I am not a huge Ted Lilly fan, but I do consider him (on my list) slightly better than Liriano. Unfortunately, I also put an additional 39 players ahead of Liriano. Now we can argue the value of some of the sad contracts on here (See Scott Kazmir, for example) but when considering the money that we will have to pay Liriano to stay here versus what I value him at, I am with the Twins on this one. Get two more years out of him and get the 2 first rounder's for him when he becomes a free agent. The value just isn't there.
Here is a link to read Joe C's article: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/115676604.html
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I think you are the one who undervalues him.
MY GOD 55 other pitchers you’d rather have than him? Ted Lilly? Fausto Carmona? Hiroki Kuroda? Johnny Cueto???!!!
Wait a minute…. You’re that one reporter from the Strib aren’t you?? Oh what’s his name? They guy that everybody and their grandmother hates.
FREE AIRWOLF!
Liriano
First, I really like Liriano… I think of him as a #2 guy. If we had a number 1 on this staff I would be pumped to see Franchise grab game 2. Second, I just bought a Liriano Road grey jersey with the 50 years patch so I am not trying push not signing him. I want to be able to wear this jersey for years. I just don’t see much value in a $13M contract on a #2 pitcher with a history of arm trouble. Three, no… not a media guy. This (blogging) is as close as I want to get on that.
Lilly
Ted Lilly is not better than Francisco. Although Target Field would be a great AL park for him to pitch in. Carmona is better for sure now that he is back pitching the way he can. Nobody in Minnesota has ever heard of Kuroda but he is also better than Liriano. Cueto? Probably not – yet.
I'm with your list until #15
Liriano is at least 16th on that list and I’m assuming you mean Jared Weaver.
He's better than Veralander, Kershaw and Oswalt.
When Liriano’s luck evens out, his BABIP, he will when the Cy Young. Better strike-out rates than most of even the top 10, Great BB/9, induces ground balls at 55%. Oh and his HR/9 is otherworldly. His xFIP is better than all but Halladay.
FREE AIRWOLF!
His xFIP was better than everyone else's
What, exactly, are your objections to xFIP, which has been shown to be superior to actual ERA in the prediction of a pitcher’s future ERA?
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
no objections, per se
Except if you go by xFIP to list, in order, the best pitchers in baseball you will get a list with FL as the #2 pitcher in baseball. That is just ridiculous. You think he is better than Lincecum, better than Cain, better than Cliff Lee, better than Felix, better than Greinke, better than Verlander, better than David Price… etc…. because xFIP tells you??? Watch baseball games! Look at velocity, movement, location, command… he is just not there with the rest of them.
You can't judge Liriano by a 1 year xFIP
He’s been really inconsistent/injured.
What are you talking about?
I think you are the one who isn’t watching the games. He is absolutely there with the rest of them in terms of movement, location and command. He gets as many awkward swings as Santana used to.
YOU are the one who is being biased by past results and ERA. If you just watched the games, and looked at the pitches, there is no way you’d think he’s the 55th best pitcher in baseball.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Let the piling on begin
Steve, you are so vicious… that’s awesome… great passion!
That is the first time in my life I've ever been described as Vivacious
so, thank you for that.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
He said vicious. lol
Thank you for defending my point, we for the most part seem to agree alot on here.
FREE AIRWOLF!
xFIP is just a measurement of factual data, it's not an opinion.
It just means that in terms of getting strikeouts, avoiding walks, and avoiding fly balls, Liriano did better per inning than anyone in the league last year than Halladay.
It doesn’t mean he’s the second-best pitcher in baseball—some more track record would be nice, innings-pitched totals matter—but it’s a big deal. It’s a really good measure of talent because those are basically the things a pitcher has complete control over.
Factual Data?
It is either a fact that Liriano is the 2nd best pitcher or it isn’t. You can’t throw out the word “Factual Data” and then backtrack and say he isn’t the 2nd best pitcher in baseball. Why are we even discussing this? Liriano isn’t even close to the top end pitchers in baseball and using xFIP to say he is is really unintelligent.
xFIP
He never said it’s a fact that Liriano is the second-best pitcher – he said it’s a fact that he had the second-best xFIP. xFIP is a statistic that has been shown to be better at predicting a pitcher’s future ERA than his actual ERA is. As far as I know, it’s the best tool of that type. From a pure data standpoint, you can certainly argue that that overrates his contribution last year, especially based on his number of innings (he threw less than 200).
If you want to make an argument against Liriano based on something else, that’s fine, but just saying “Liriano isn’t even close” isn’t really contributing much. If you have objections to the methodology behind xFIP or a specific reason why it overrates Liriano in particular, I’m sure we’d all be interested in hearing them.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Stats...
Good stuff Beef… Here is my argument for why Liriano is overrated. One guy says that xFIP shows he had the second best year in 2010. How do I argue that? I watch games… tons of them. I am that nerd that watches 4 or 5 games a night. In my opinion Liriano is not on the elite level. He is a very solid #3 and I would be satisfied as the Twins #2… I just have a bunch of pitchers that I would rather pitch that playoff game for us.
such as
Ted Lilly…against the Yankees. Well, boys, might as well kiss that game goodbye because if I know Lilly, it will 5-0 after the top of the first inning. – and yes, that is because I watch games!
You cannot base things on watching games. There is a statistic to it involved.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
by BCTwins on Feb 10, 2011 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He's saying that he was second in the league in a certain stat
THAT IS A FACT.
If I say, that Carlos Gonzalez was second in the league in batting average
THAT IS ALSO A FACT.
No one said that Liriano is the second best pitcher in baseball. Just like I didn’t say Carlos Gonzalez isn’t the second best hitter in baseball.
The point is, that he WAS second in xFIP. Again, I hope I’m not beating a horse, but that is a fact. You can’t argue with that.
If you don’t understand what xFIP is, then go read about it. xFIP is the best tool we have at predicting ERA (note, it is significantly better than ERA at predicting ERA!) .
Here are other facts:
Liriano led the league in just about every rate stat prior to his injury.
Liriano did not fare well for two seasons after his injury. During those seasons his velocity was well below his ’06 velocity.
Last season, led the league in xFIP, and was among the leaders in other categories. His velocity was significantly higher that in previous seasons.
If you don’t think he’s one of the better pitchers in baseball, well that’s your opinion.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
holy cow...
Steve you nailed it! That is my opinion… WINNER!
xFIP…. is significantly better at predicting ERA than ERA???.. I would say that someones ERA is probably the most accurate predicter of ERA… since it is actually their ERA… I am sure that isn’t what you meant. xFIP is a great way to show efficiencies… it uses fly ball/ ground ball ratio’s, K/BB Ratios, ballpark effects, etc. It is a very good stat… but taking this stat over actually watching pitchers, the movement they have, command, velocity and the change of velocity, stamina, among other attributes is ludicrous! It Fantasy Baseball vs. real baseball.
But again, yes, in my opinion (as if that hasn’t been clear already), Liriano is not in my top 55 to start a game #1 in the playoffs in 2011…
I would say that someones ERA is probably the most accurate predicter of ERA
You would say that, but you’d be wrong. Take everyone’s xFIP from last year, and take their ERA. The xFIPs will do a better job of predicting this year’s ERAs. They do every year. Again, fact.
Also, have you actually sat down and watched a significant amount of all of these pitchers? I mean, more than just a start or two? Because how can you seriously say that you know they have better movement, velocity, etc.? Most of them don’t. And it’s not close. Liriano’s slider is one of the very best pitches in baseball. And he’s left handed. And his control is better than average. And he throws 94. Bronson Arroyo is none of those things.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
I was being facicious...
in the predictor thing…. the best way to predict someone’s ERA, is to actually look at their current ERA – It was suppose to be funny.
You have no idea how much baseball I watch.
Again, control is not command. This is a very simple concept. The difference: control=not walking people… Command= throwing the ball as intended. The two cross paths but control is a mindset not to walk people… the Twins are notorious control proponents. If you want me to take the mound for the Twins this summer I am betting that I walk very few batters. That makes me a control pitcher, not necessarily a guy who has command of my pitches.
Steve
hates you… :)
I like your takes Al but just like the guy that likes Liriano more than Hammels and Bumgarner… they just don’t watch enough. IE, wrong group to post this too. It’s too personal. Liriano is coming off a statistical gem in 2010. They forget his mental fragilities and inconsistant, at times brilliant, at times infuriorating starts.
I think if you watched any of the other pitchers' 30 starts
you’d see that they also have “infuriorating” starts. Twins fans, for some reason, have this idealized view of an ace that pitches well every time out, and pitches 8 innings every time they start.
They like to cite how Liriano struggled in the playoffs last year, forgetting that CC didn’t fare much better, and was terrible in the playoffs for the Brewers.
Yes, Liriano has bad starts, but so does EVERYONE ELSE. Even Lee and Halladay have rough, short starts.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, like Steven said, that's the whole thing about xFIP and ERA.
It’s counterintuitive, but ERA is affected by so many things outside of the pitcher’s control that past ERA doesn’t actually predict future ERA very well. The FIP-type stats do better because they strip out everything the pitcher doesn’t control (or controls only to a small extent). They effectively just measure pitcher talent, whereas ERA measures pitcher talent + defense + luck. Since you don’t know what sort of defense and luck you’re going to get in the coming year, when predicting the future you’re better off just looking at the measurement of pure talent. Like I said, it’s sort of weird, but it’s true.
wow...
Did I put Jeff Weaver… I said I put the list together… thanks, I will change.. BUT, there is no way that Liriano is better than Tommy Hanson.. none.. and not even in the same league as CC… Bucholz is much better, Latos is a freak, not better than Cain – not better than Cain? Hammels, better, Bumgarner, better… hell, I didn’t even put Johan or Brandon Webb because of injuries… both better.
I got to Fausto Carmona
You’re the guy who thinks all those pitchers are worse than Fausto Carmona. We can rearrange the list but Liriano was clearly one of the top 20 pitchers in baseball last season.
Hamels and Bumgarner are clearly not better than Liriano.
my bad
I thought we were talking about the best pitchers in baseball – Not who had the best years last year. I retract.
I don't know what the list is supposed to be
But Erik Bedard is not an ace anymore. Matt Garza and Ted Lilly are inferior to Liriano in every measurable way.
The list
I appreciate your take. I just disagree. I think Garza is better. I do get the Lilly argument but I would rather have Garza starting game 1 than Liriano. The premise is if healthy… if that is the case Bedard is a stud and I would trust him more with the ball in that situation.
Oh my gosh
Ya, Erik Bedard who basically hasn’t pitched more than 15 games in the last three years (didn’t even pitch last year…because of INJURIES!)
So, you are saying that Liriano is not a stud whenever he isn’t injured. If it wasn’t for Liriano’s injury way back in 2006, we would not be having this conversation. But no, we must base our opinions on something that happened 5 years ago and claim that a pitcher who hasnt pitched more than 15 games since 2007 (Bedard) would be better in a playoff situation.
What has this world come to?
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
If Nolan Ryan were healthy
I’d take him over Liriano.
If Cy young were alive and healthy, I’d take him over Liriano.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
SE
Point. Missed.
If the Twins are in the playoffs in 2011 there are 55 guys that I would rather start than Liriano. I think Nolan Ryan is healthy, but I wouldn’t take him.
It is...
This was suppose to be about the best pitchers is baseball, not a recap of who had the best year last year. That’s my fault if that didn’t come through in the article… It was suppose to illustrate, going into this season, if the Twins had a playoff game, who – their complete make-up, stuff, command, toughness, unable to rattle, etc. – is that pitcher, that gamer, that I would start in game #1… if healthy.
So you're predicting the best pitchers in 2011
You’re really trying to argue that you’d rather have 2011 Bronson Arroyo and 2011 Erik Bedard than 2011 Francisco Liriano? If so, then there’s no reason to listen to any of your other opinions.
And that is the point
Where most people on this site will agree to disagree with you.
by twinscrazy_german on Feb 10, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions
those posting are going to disagree..
for the most part. It is a unpopular take but probably closer to the truth than the contrary opinions I am reading. Top 10 pitcher? Really?
It's the opposite of that
You like Bedard and Arroyo better than Liriano. I don’t.
by DJL44 on Feb 10, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Going out on a limb here...
I’m going to say that Liriano will have better stats in 2011 than Stephen Strasburg.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Feb 10, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
If healthy...
well, if Punto remains healthy, he could have a better year than Robinson Cano! This is baseball, it is full of unpredictable occurrences!
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
Agreed
Nick Punto could be World Series MVP while a mid-june injury could end Joe Mauer’s career.
Probably the wrong forum Al
Good article, it is going to anger Twins fans though. Liriano had a very good year last year. Going through your list I like 42 pitchers better than Francisco, but not 55. Either way point taken. It isn’t going to go over well in this forum but if it were a national post I think most people would agree with you.
who knows if it is true...
Its a February take with the bad taste of October baseball still in my mouth. I just remember command issues with FL’s 2-seamer all year. His slider is devestating… but it is so good it shows the lack of command on his other pitches because if that was there this discussion would be mute.
Command issues?
C.J. Wilson
CC Sabathia
Chad Billingsley
Clay Buchholz
Clayton Kershaw
David Price
Colby Lewis
Ervin Santana
Fausto Carmona
Gavin Floyd
John Danks
John Lackey
Jon Lester
Justin Verlander
Matt Garza
Max Scherzer
Ricky Romero
Ryan Dempster
Tim Hudson
Tim Lincecum
Trevor Cahill
Ubaldo Jimenez
Phil Hughes
Wandy Rodriguez
Yovani Gallardo
That is a list of guys, on your list, that walked more per inning that Liriano.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 10, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So.... since you were saying that he can't "command" his pitches, but has good control.
So If you can reliably put pitches in the strike zone, but yet not where you want it, wouldn’t it be correct to assume that you would be hit fairly hard? Hmmmm… I don’t remember Liriano getting hit that hard, and I watched about 150 of the Twins 162 games. Last time I checked he had one of the best HR/9 rates in all of baseball, since when did Liriano become Moonshot Scott? Did I miss something?
Really, I think you have something against Liriano, and your bias prevents you from seeing him as one of the best pitchers in the game, albeit an oft injured one. Either that or you are just really thick and refuse to accept more efficient methods of evaluating players, or just don’t like it because math scares you. Its got to be one of those. Cause Liriano is damn good, and he, if he stays healthy WILL be one of the top contenders for the AL Cy Young.
FREE AIRWOLF!
I hope you are right...
I would love Liriano to become that guy… As I stated before, I just bought a damn Liriano jersey… I want him around. Just not as our number one guy, because I don’t think he is quite good enough and I don’t want the Twins to not be able to sign other guys because they are overpaying Liriano.
I try to be the anti-Homer-Twins fan but your list is INSANE!
You have rookies, pitchers that are #3s at best, and people with ever more injury issues ahead of Liriano. I just don’t get your list and I hope it is a poor attempt at a joke. Erik Bedard? Bronson Arroyo? Really?
Liriano look at that list should be between 20-30 and if he pitches like he did this year again he would be in the top 10.
In a post-season game...
I would take a healthy Bedard… I get the Arroyo take, that’s fine, and yes I put young players on that list… 2 rookies (Strasberg and Hellickson)… both I would absolutely take.
Take a Healthy Erik Bedard
who hasn’t pitched in a year and hasn’t started more than 15 games in the two previous seasons before last year.
Please give me what you are smoking.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
I think he is drinking the Strb coolaid. lmao
I would take Arroyo over Bedard, but niether over Liriano.
FREE AIRWOLF!
This is the dumbest thing I've read since . . .
well this morning when I read the article by Howard Sinker about trading Liriano for Young.
I’m sorry man but this is way out there. You’re entitled to your opinion but most of this list is just ridiculous.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on Feb 10, 2011 4:35 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Man
This is an interesting thread. IMHO: All things considered, I’d take Liriano over just about every pitcher in baseball. Though he’s not the best, he’s one of the best. And, unlike those who are the best, he’s relatively cheap and he still has upside. If the Twins trade Liriano, they better get four top players, at least two of whom could plug holes in this roster. Here’s an example:
Franklin Gutierrez
Brendan Ryan
Brandon League
Maricio Robles
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2011 4:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Just get Ackley
Forget about Gutierrez and Brendan Ryan
+2 thats the type of deal we should get
seriously
that
I’d take Liriano over anyone not on the Phillies starting “4” (besides Oswalt) Lincecum, King Felix, Cain, and maybe 1 or 2 others…… thats it
I’d take Liriano right now over both the “aces” in St. Louis for example, CC and A.W.
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
talk about a ridiculous list
I’d take Pavano over most of these guys in a start… heck, even Baker over a few of them. I find it amusing that you have no problems docking Liriano for his health issues while ignoring the health problems of others… Bedard? I’m for him as a cheap reclamation project that might yield high end rewards… but ahead of Liriano right now? Peavy? Last I heard he was claiming to be 60-70%. There are way way way too many people on this list that don’t belong here.
The fact of the matter is that he had a pretty devestating injury and has taken a giant step forward in returning to form. Given the way he was prior to that, it isn’t unreasonable to assume that he will continue to improve this year… If his peripherals simply stay the same, his ERA will likely drop and he will win a few games… That alone is top 20, maybe top 10.
I’d wager really good money that a healthy Liriano outperforms the vast bulk of this list.
by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 10, 2011 4:48 PM EST reply actions
shocking comments...
DieHardTwinsFan
I can’t believe you disagree with his take… lol.
just because
we are diehardtwinsfanS does not mean that we lack reality…..which apparently you (Ptp_Guru) and Al Damio do.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
we criticize
our team more than we applaud them! That is part of being a diehardtwinsfan. If there was even an element of truth behind this list, we would admit it. But 90% of these pitchers should not be ranked ahead of Liriano.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
+1
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem—once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." -Al Gallagher
by twinsgirl197 on Feb 10, 2011 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
90% ?
So, out of thes 55 pitchers, you rank him 6th? In all of baseball, you rank Liriano as the 6th best pitcher? Why do you think he is the 6th best pitcher? That is madness!
It depends on what you care about
If you are talking about trade value, I would rank him in the top 10 for sure. Why? Upside and cost combined with quality. If you’re talking about value to a team for 2011 regardless of cost, he’s still in the top 20 for sure, but some very expensive, older pitchers might be more valuable.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
So can you explain why you think those 55 are better than Liriano?
I think it’s a pretty brutal list, to be honest.
Sorry Al,
Its all speculative but I’d say your off some on this one. But, I do like the idea of the discussion on Liriano. With Gibson on the way, does it make sense to look to trade Liriano and what is his true value. I see a lot of turn over next year and trading Liriano in the off-season might fill some gaps. I’d place Liriano at #20 but He could move up to #10 if he proves next year that he can go a full year, but who ever has a good year will move up. If he were with the Yank’s or Phillies would he be thier #3 starter?
You may think it is crazy but...
as I stated before… the list is a bit suspect… but it does back the Twins position from a contract perspective. They don’t see him as a number 1 pitcher either otherwise $13M per year would be a steal. If there are only 55 better that puts him as a #2 type starter. What’s wrong with that?
No, it's more like $25/year, because he's already under team control.
That’s insane, and I’m glad they aren’t willing to pay that much.
There are some very good pitchers on this list
but there are also some I wouldn’t want starting game 4 for my team, let alone game 1. I don’t know why pitchers like Bedard get the benefit of their best case scenario while Liriano doesn’t.
I believe if given a choice
most fans and GM’s of these other teams would take Liriano over half of these players as well. Which would put Al in the far end of a Minority of those who devalue him.
by b1 on Feb 11, 2011 7:17 AM EST up reply actions
It looks like
The Front Office of the Minnesota Twins disagree with you on that. If that wasn’t the case they would commit more to Liriano than 1 year, arbitration avoiding contracts. Under similar situations they gave multi-year contracts to Baker, Blackburn, Kubel & Span. Why not with LIriano?
Not really
Liriano asked for an additional $35M to avoid arbitration and buy out a free agent year. The front office doesn’t get to just decide what to pay a player, both sides have to agree. To find out the answer to “Why not Liriano?” you’ll have to ask Liriano’s agent.
because those were small contracts.
Liriano would demand more then those guys making the deal longer to nagotiate and more complex.
by b1 on Feb 11, 2011 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
contracts
The Rangers just did a multi year deal with Hammer… the Giants did it last year with Lincecum. There is clearly a big difference in what the Twins value Liriano at versus what Liriano’s camp feel he deserves.
The Twins have an advantage
because Liriano isn’t going to get a huge payday through arbitration. Even if they think he’s worth 3/39, they are in a position where they don’t have to pay it.
Can we please post this
… In some entire MLB forum… I would love to some non-Twins homers dismantle Al’s (and PTP’s) claims as well.
Worst Post Ever
Worst Post Ever
wow I hope you arn’’t banned
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2011 4:19 PM EST reply actions
You're highly insulting to anyone who seriously thinks Liriano is the Best pitcher in baseball
becuase they’re are thos out there that do
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
I respect your opinion that Francisco Liriano is the best pitcher in all of baseball.
I just disagree. I think of him as a solid #2 guy on a staff. His stuff can be absolutely #1 – type… dominating. I hope this year he puts it together because he does have a repetoir to become that guy. My opinion is that the inconsistant command will get him in trouble too often. We will see.
I believe Adam Wainright of the Cards,
while VERY good
is actually a bigger injury risk right now, than Liriano by far
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2011 4:22 PM EST reply actions
Wainwright
has pitched over 200 innings 3 out of 4 years and has been in the Top 3 in Cy Young voting the last 2 years…. you can slot Liriano below him if you like… where below? I don’t care… just make sure it is below him.
You can Take Wainwright I'll take Liriano
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 11, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
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