Liriano is too #56
by Al Damlo on Feb 11, 2011 1:40 PM EST
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After my list of 55 pitchers that I would rather have start game 1 of the 2011 ALDS than Francisco Liriano came out, I have been asked to further back my claims. I started the list expecting to come up with about 25-35 better, putting Liriano in that mix as a solid #2, borderline #1 pitcher in baseball today. I was a little surprised myself with how many I grabbed. I did not look at any stats but rather just looked at the projected opening day rosters and rotations and said either, "Yep, I would rather have him" or "Nope, I would rather have Frankie."
The idea behind this was to show to myself more than to show others whether Liriano is a #2 pitcher and the Twins are justified in their stance that they do not want to commit the 3 years $39M that he is asking for or if they should give him the #1 money he may deserve.
There is no arguing with the pure "stuff" that Francisco has. He has a 2-seamer with great movement, an improving change and a devastating slider. There is also no question that Liriano had a great 2010 season; He was 11th in Cy Young voting in the A.L last year.
Here is the other side of 2010. After May 1st, he completed 8 or more innings only once. He was 11-10 with a 4.16 ERA and averaged under 6 innings per start. His postseason start was disappointing to say the least. He was staked to a 3-0 lead but couldn't get out of the 6th. He lost Game 1 by allowing 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings, gave up 6 hits and walked 3. During the 6th inning he looked visibly shaken, bewildered during that inning & as he walked off he showed no emotion. This isn't the demeanor of a #1 pitcher, in my opinion.
The Real Aces in MLB
On the list of 55 pitchers I would rather start game #1 of the 2011 ALDS I have 18 that, if healthy, are a better start than Frankie. News today that Johan is starting to throw made me put him on this list as well as I will assume he will be ready to roll come October baseball (not that the Mets will be playing). Only 11% of those polled in my last article put Frankie in with these guys:
| Rank | Pitcher |
| 1 | Roy Halladay |
| 2 | Tim Lincecum |
| 3 | Ubaldo Jimenez |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez |
| 5 | Josh Johnson |
| 6 | Cliff Lee |
| 7 | David Price |
| 8 | Jon Lester |
| 9 | Justin Verlander |
| 10 | Jared Weaver |
| 11 | Chris Carpenter |
| 12 | Clayton Kershaw |
| 13 | Zach Greinke |
| 14 | CC Sabathia |
| 15 | Stephen Strasberg |
| 16 | Matt Cain |
| 17 | Adam Wainwright |
| 18 | Johan Santana |
Liriano is good but not this good!
52% polled on this site say that Liriano is absolutely a #1 pitcher. An "ace" in the truest sense, not a top 10 guy, but definitely an ace. A guy that you hand the ball to in the exact scenario I am scared to death to so with FL. A playoff horse with the moxy, stuff & fortitude to give his team a shot to win. I say Liriano is absolutely not this guy. A number 2, no question, but not a number 1. This next list of guys are starters that, in my opinion are better candidates for that job than Frankie. These are borderline #1/ #2 guys. Liriano is very close to these guys but I give them all the edge. I also give an explanation why.
| 19 | Tim Hudson | 5 top 10 Cy Young seasons, 7 200+ inning seasons & has 9 Postseason starts including a win versus the Yankees in the Postseason. |
| 20 | Roy Oswalt | 6 Top 10 Cy Young seasons, 7 seasons of 200+ innings, career WHIP under 1.19, 5-1 in the Postseason. Pitched 7 or more innings in 20 of his 33 2010 starts |
| 21 | Fausto Carmona | Had a great finish to 2010 and completed his second 200+ inning season. Stuff is back & he has beaten the Yankees in the Post-season. |
| 22 | Mat Latos | Absolutely intimidating young pitcher. WHIP under 1.09, High K-rate & was 8th in the NL in Cy Young voting last year. More to come from Latos as he establishes himself as one of the top NL pitchers. |
| 23 | Tommy Hanson | Pitched 200+ innings in his first full MLB season. The highly touted "Future Ace of the Braves" is here now. WHIP under 1.18 & 4 years younger than Liriano. |
| 24 | Mark Buerhle | Has never thrown under 200 innnings in his full time career. 1.28 Career WHIP, has beaten the Red Sox in Postseason & pitched at least 7 innings in each PS start. |
| 25 | Brett Myers | Former first rounder who had the same 2010 WAR as Liriano. Pitched over 220 innings, Top 10 in NL Cy Young. |
| 26 | Clay Bucholz | Similar to Liriano in age & 2010 stats but Bucholz to me is just a better pitcher at this point. 6th in Cy Young voting last year and a year younger than FL. |
| 27 | Brett Anderson | Former 2nd round pick with tremendous tilt on his pitches, 4 years younger than Liriano & had a WHIP of under 1.20 in an injury shortened season. Watch out in 2011. |
| 28 | John Danks | Another former 1st rounder who has steadily progressed the last 3 years. 2 years younger than FL and has that fiery attitude to become the #1 starter in Chicago. |
| 29 | Dan Haren | 6 straight 200+ innings, career WHIP under 1.20. Beat the Twins in the 2006 Postseason (Oh Radke!). Top 5 Cy Young in 2009. |
| 30 | Chad Billingsley | Another former 1st rounder who has decreased his WHIP each of the last 4 years. A year younger than Liriano and on the verge of turning into the true #1 the Dodgers saw him becoming. |
| 31 | Cole Hamels | A career WHIP under 1.18, 12 career Postseason starts, 6 PS Wins and is the same age as Liriano. 2 Seasons over 200+ innings and a Top 10 Cy Young in 2007. |
| 32 | Yovani Gallardo | Former 2nd round pick with a power arm, Gallardo was an All-Star in 2010, threw a solid Postseason start against the Phillies in 2008 & is 3 years younger than FL. (And what a hitter!) |
| 33 | Madison Bumgarner | It may be hard to gauge how good Bumgarner is but at 21, this former 1st round pick was fast tracked for good reason. He's going to be amazing! Not sure? Just re-watch his WS game start vs. the Rangers. |
| 34 | Matt Garza | Former 1st rounder of the Twins, Garza completed his 2nd straight 200+ innning season. He has beaten the Red Sox twice in postseason and threw a brilliant No-Hitter last year. |
| 35 | Dallas Braden | Threw a perfect game and HATES A-Rod. What's not to like about Braden? 5 Complete Games out of 30 starts and a WHIP under 1.16. With he and Anderson & Cahill, no wonder people like the A's in 2011! |
| 36 | Colby Lewis | Former 1st rounder who is a late bloomer. Now 31, he threw over 200 innings in his first full season, had a WHIP under 1.19 and beat the Yankees TWICE in the Postseason. |
| 37 | Johnny Cueto | He has improved his WHIP each of his first 3 seasons and, IMO, is primed for a huge year in 2011. He is 3 years younger than Liriano and has improved his command enough to be considered the #1 guy in Cincy |
| 38 | Ervin Santana | Born the same year as FL, he has 3 seasons of 200+ innings and has a Top 10 Cy Young season in 2008. He also has 3 seasons of 16 wins and beat the Yankees after throwing 5+ brilliant innings of relief in 2005 ALDS. |
| 39 | Trevor Cahill | 22 year old righty starting his 3rd season in MLB. 2010 was a masterpiece of a season with an ERA of 2.92 a WHIP of 1.10 and went on to win 18 games. A 2010 All-Star and was 9th in Cy Young voting |
| 40 | Ricky Romero | Another former 1st Round pick, Romero pitched in just his 2nd season in MLB. He dramatically improved his WHIP down to 1.29, won 14 games and threw 210 innings. He is also a year younger than Liriano |
| 41 | Phil Hughes | 3 years younger than Liriano, Hughes won 18 games last year, had a WHIP under 1.25 and threw a 7 inning gem against the Twins in the ALDS shutting us out on 4 hits. |
| 42 | Josh Beckett | If healthy, there is no question in my mind that Beckett is better than Liriano. That was the question last year though as this former 20 game winner struggled. He got 2nd place in the Cy Young vote in 2007 |
Liriano's Group
The next group of guys is where I put Liriano. I will stand by my opinion that I would rather have them start game 1 than Liriano but it is so marginal I would rather not argue it at all. These guys have about the same shot of winning a game 1 in the ALDS as Liriano.
| 43 | Jeremy Hellickson |
| 44 | Max Scherzer |
| 45 | Wandy Rodriquez |
| 46 | Ted Lilly |
| 47 | John Lackey |
| 48 | C.J. Wilson |
| 49 | Bronson Arroyo |
| 50 | Daniel Hudson |
| 51 | Gavin Floyd |
| 52 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| 53 | Jeremy Guthrie |
| 54 | Ryan Dempster |
| 55 | Edinson Volquez |
| 56 | Francisco Liriano |
What do I want?
Again, this is not an indictment on Liriano. These are really great pitchers. But I just can't put Frankie on either of the other two lists until he does a few things first:
1. Go beyond 6 innings more often.
2. When things go bad, don't go "Cutler" on us.
3. Beat the Yankees in a post-season game. (Heck, I would take a regular season win. He hasn't done that either.)
4. 200+ innings, an "Ace" should not rely on his bullpen as much as Liriano does
5. Road ERA under 4.00. All Twins starters get the benefit of Target Field but we need a guy who will be able to bring that kind of performance on the road.
Depressing
Wow, this wasn't fun. Defending myself on a topic where I have to break down a guy that I root for every 5th day is not how I like to start off my Friday, but I felt like I needed to. I hope, for all our sakes, that those who think he is a true "Ace" and the Twins are crazy to take the stance that they don't want to pay him like one, are right. Good luck to "The Franchise" in 2011. Maybe you will make a believer out of me.
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Third in FIP, second in xFIP. He had a K/9 of 9.3, compared to Johnson’s 9.1, Halladay’s 7.9, Jimenez’s 8.7, and Hernandez’s 8.4.
His slider was the most valuable in the majors. His HR/9 was a majors leading 0.4. The only knock on him is the lack of innings.
There are some other...
I agree Brady and hope to god that he returns to his 2006 self. 11-10, 1.40 WHIP and a 4.16 ERA the last 5 months… not ace numbers. Plus he always seems to have a defeatest attitude when things go wrong… not ace qualities.
(sorry for the duplication.. put it in the wrong spot)
So what? You’re taking an arbitrary timeframe and blowing it up. And please keep in mind that he went from the end of the 2009 season to winter ball to Spring Training to the 2010 season.
How ace like is Lincecum’s 1.272 WHIP? Or his 7.82 ERA in August?
Or Felix Hernandez’s 1.626 WHIP with a 4.79 ERA in May?
by Brady Eyestone on Feb 11, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
arbitrary
I am not talking about a short time frame, these are the numbers for his last 27 starts (of 31 total). You take away the torrid start he had and his 2010 stats drops off significantly. Now, I understand, you can’t do that. You need to look at his season from an entire body of work perspective, but it does show a completely different picture from May 1 on.
ERA is a very flawed stat. It takes performance of the defense into consideration. And while the team’s infield defense was up the middle was pretty good (Span, Hardy, Hudson) in left, right, and at first, it was pretty terrible. I don’t understand using a stat that takes things beyond the pitchers control into account. Go look up FIP and xFIP and redo this.
by Brady Eyestone on Feb 11, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe just watch...
a replay of Game 1 vs. Yankees.
You can find 5+ games during the season very similar performance. This isn’t an anomoly, it’s a significant part of the package.
Now I do realize that the stats are really what happened NOT the actual game/performance.
Regards,
I don't suffer from insanity...I relish every moment of it!
I'm with Al
on the fact that Liriano had a bad mid season and didn’t seem to recover.
by b1 on Feb 11, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
He went 8-3 with a 3.31 ERA in the second half of 2010
I think you have him confused with Blackburn, who had an ERA of 9 in June and July before getting sent down. Or perhaps you have him confused with Slowey and Baker, who had two quality starts between them in June and July.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You're right on the back half
It was a little earlier in the year he had the bad stretch. After the May 4th game he was 4-0 and a 1.50era. 12 games later he was 6-7 with a 3.86 era. He then finshed strong with 8-3 record and an overall era of 3.62. My point was if you call if a #1 or an ace, those 12 games sucked. This is why I consider him a solid #2 and about #20-24 on that list. Now if he can shorten those bad starts, Yes he could be a top 10, he just hasn’t done it yet! I’m sure this is the Question the Twins have before they sign him long term to big money. I think he will jump-up to # 15 by the end of next year.
OK, so he had a tough May, but he most definitely recovered
And nobody expected him to continue his April dominance for a full season. That would have been the best season for any pitcher in franchise history.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He wasn't very good
4-6 with an ERA of 4 for the Rangers. He must suck too.
Ah, now I get it
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I watched the game, and I’lll agree that he tends to unravel, but to say you’d rather have Bronson Arroyo, Dallas Braden, Edison Volquez, or Jeremy Guthrie over Liriano strikes me as a little silly.
by Brady Eyestone on Feb 11, 2011 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, one start is what we should base our analysis on
A lot of the pitchers on this list have never pitched in the playoffs. Many have never been in a playoff race.
It’s not just the stat side of me that thinks this is wrong,
it’s every single thing I’ve learned about baseball that tells me this is wrong. It doesn’t make sense from any angle.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Feb 14, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
and the "lack of innings"
isnt huge. Liriano missed 200 IP, by 8.2 innings.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
while pitching like 50 in winter ball, so he really was over 200.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
that took a lot of words
to say something so totally wrong.
by matswilander on Feb 11, 2011 2:24 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
told you...
people take their guys too personal… it results in responses like the tennis players’…
oh great response
I applaud you for your equally charitable response! Seriously, you should get a medal!
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
There are some other knocks...
I agree Brady and hope to god that he returns to his 2006 self. 11-10, 1.40 WHIP and a 4.16 ERA the last 5 months… not ace numbers. Plus he always seems to have a defeatest attitude when things go wrong… not ace qualities.
I like how you point out how all these guys are 1st and 2nd rounders
because Francisco was a 30th rounder, right?
He was the highest rated Domincan pitcher of his year
The equivalent of a first rounder. Would have been if they had an international draft.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I thought that horse was dead
I shot it five times
by DJL44 on Feb 11, 2011 2:32 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Did this guy really put Jeremy Guthrie, Kuroda, Daniel Hudson, Lilly, Lackey, Hellickson, Arroyo, Dempster, Scherzer, Braden……..I can’t keep going on. Sorry, but this is just terrible.
You need help analyzing baseball my friend.
D Hud...
Daniel Hudson is a stud, Hellickson will be too… I love Kuroda’s stuff but the rest you are right…. Liriano is better than. Everybody has an opinion… Since you did no analysis in this comment, why don’t you try again. What is wrong with Guthrie, Kuroda, Hudson, Lackey, Hellickson, Arroyo, Dempster, Scherzer & Braden? I will probably agree with you … just want you to give your thoughts on those guys?
I don’t think anything is wrong with any of them, but they’re not on the level that Liriano is on. His point was that he’d take any of those pitchers over Liriano to start a playoff game. The ones I listed and many more are either rookies with limited experience or just weren’t as good as Liriano last season. What Liriano did last season is now the baseline as to how we can analyze him.
When I analyze a pitcher I look at xFIP, FIP, K/BB, K/9 to an extent, GB% and BABIP. Liriano was tops or near top in all but BABIP, but that’s a different story. In short that’s why I think Liriano is above all of those I mentioned, plus more.
Other note: D. Hudson doesn’t scream stud to me, at least not yet. Hellickson has the ability as well but, again, not on Liriano’s level. You said Hellickson WILL be a stud. I agree, but I don’t want him or Hudson over Liriano and that’s what the conversation starter was.
Also, WHIP is not that great of a statistic to use. Maybe in fantasy baseball, but anything that takes hits into account is a wash in my opinion.
disagree
WHIP is a very good indicator of dominance. The idea of pitching is to keep people off base. If you look at the top pitchers in 2010 they will have a few things in common. One of those is a low WHIP. You can discount it all you want.
When hits are involved it brings the defense in the equation as well. Each defender has different range and first step abilities, so some batted balls end up as hits and some don’t. Not the pitchers fault. But at the same time you have to look at LD%, GB% and FB%. Once the ball leaves their hand they have no control what happens next.
As mentioned, there are much better stats to judge a pitcher on.
Yeah. BABIP, OBP, OPS, SLG%, HR/9, batting average against, are all bullshit.
by Brady Eyestone on Feb 11, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
WHIP is entirely inferior to other pitching stats. It has almost no predictive ability, and retrospectively, it doesn’t even tell you how well the pitcher prevented runs. It’s pretty much BABIP presented in a different way. I don’t get its appeal.
I see the appeal
1) The Angry Anti-Nerd Brigade will sometimes pay attention it
2) It captures BB/9, and kind of captures K/9 assuming BABIP isn’t ridiculous
3) It’s a good shorthand to see how dominant a guy’s been – past analysis instead of predictive analysis. Yeah, it can be inflated by a bad BABIP or whatever, but if a guy’s putting up a sub-1 WHIP, you know he’s been doing a heck of a job.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
White Sox
You have the entire white sox starting pitching staff, plus daniel hudson, ahead of Liriano? Even though the Twins won all 5 of Liriano’s starts against them That’s not the only problem I have with this list. If you’re arguing that you’d rather see these guys face the Yankees, I don’t understand why you’d go with so many young guys that haven’t proven anything. At least Liriano has the experience, who says he won’t be better prepared when he faces the Yankees this postseason. I’d say he’s def top 30.
good point
you may be right, maybe he is top 30. Game 1 of a playoff game I would rather have Danks or Buehrle… If Peavy is healthy I’d take him too. Gavin, who knows… The White Sox should have never traded Daniel Hudson away.
Can't we all just agree
that a 20 year old Rick Porcello was, is, and will always be the Greatest Pitcher of All Time!
by archie2227 on Feb 11, 2011 2:48 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Trrbl, just trrbl
Once he hit that drinking age everything started falling apart. Just ask Chip Caray.
I didn’t realize how few batters he strikes out until I looked up. 4.7 per nine. Blackburn does 4.3 per 9!
by Brady Eyestone on Feb 11, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Chip, is that you?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I actually like your analysis
but I disagree with your conclusion. I think Liriano definitely belongs in that second group. The one thing in your analysis of Liriano that I think you fail to realize is just how much playing year-round takes a toll on a pitcher. Liriano should be able to avoid falling off in the second half this year given that he had a normal offseason. I agree Liriano’s makeup may not be like Santana’s, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. I’d put him right around Billingsley on your list.
Nobody's an Ace until they have ample opportunity to prove it.
Liriano proved that he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball last season. Whether that makes him an ace to you or not is your decision.
Either this season will prove you right, or you’ll have to sit down and re-evaluate your position.
Baseball writers
voted him as having the 11 best year for an American League pitcher in 2011. That is very impressive, no doubt about that. I hope he has 10 straight years like that.
And by 'going Cutler' you mean get hurt, continue to play, get an injection to help with the pain at halftime and be forced out of the game by your coaching staff against your will?
Your 2011 Chicago White Sox: Donkey Kong!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Feb 11, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions
not really...
More sitting around on the sideline, not encouraging players, pouting… that sort of thing. I have no idea if he was hurting or not, whether he wanted to play or sit & no one does but people inside that locker room.
I'd suggest you go read Hanie's quotes about what Cutler did that wasn't shown on tv.
Now, yes, Cutler looks like a jerk. But, that’s because that’s what his face looks like. He has ‘Jerk-Face.’ Jim Thome has ‘Big Hunkering, Harmless Lumox’ face. A-Rod has ‘DBag Face.’ Mubarak has ‘Ousted by the People’ face. Etc.
Your 2011 Chicago White Sox: Donkey Kong!!!
by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Feb 11, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Go Cutler
That is the context of my quote… “Going Cutler”… the face, the demeanor…. “Now, yes, Cuter looks like a jerk.” – exactly! I don’t care if Cutler was hurt or not… Just like I don’t care if Liriano was mad or not at not getting through the 6th against the Yankees and got pulled, but he “Went Cutler” on us from a visual standpoint. He had a face like he lost a puppy, not a playoff game to the Yankees. I understand, not everyone throws stuff, yells, grabs a bat and takes it out on a Gatorade jug but IMO, he looked relieved to be relieved.
I want a guy who gets players out
I don’t care if he doesn’t emote correctly.
YES
As for the hogwash about how defeated he looked, I’d like to see how other guys reacted when they had a crappy game… you know, like Sabathia did a bunch of times in the playoffs or Grienke did a bunch of times throughout the season (yet he’s still an ACE, despite no playoff experience).
Curt Schilling walked off the field looking completely forlorn after he gave up Soriano’s go-ahead homer in the 8th inning of Game 7 in 2001, so I guess he’s not ace material, other than being a World Series MVP and 11-2 in the postseason.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
What does age have to do with it?
Why are you noting age if the idea is whether you’d’ve rather had them start the playoff game? Or even if you’re just thinking about playing 2011 as a starter #2, age isn’t a good criteria. All pitchers are vulnerable to injury and the benefits of age are long term, not really relevant to current performance.
I put the ages of some....
because some pitchers don’t have the resume that veteran pitchers might have. Statisticaly some of these guys may be similar to Liriano and their command might also be. Because they are younger they are going to have time push beyond Liriano’s limits. It is hard to compare a 27 year old (turns 28 in October) Liriano to a 21 year old Bumgartner. I threw the ages so people might be able to see the upside in those pitchers.
Time to settle this argument once and for all
Liriano is #47. Says so on his uniform.
This was a triumph
I'm making a note here - huge success
by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Feb 11, 2011 4:12 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Glad someone said this!
Not sure I agree, but I do think a lot of Twins fans tend to overvalue Liriano.
And yeah—his inability to go past 6 innings bugs the hell out of me. A lot of people conveniently don’t pay attention to that.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
I'd rather have 6 innings with 1 run than 7 innings with four runs
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
No doubt, totally agree
Watch him this year without playing any winterball and I have a feeling it’ll be more like 7 or 8 innings with 1 run
by Span's the Man!!! on Feb 11, 2011 5:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because there are so many other pitchers throwing complete games
Oh wait, starting pitchers barely crack 200 innings nowadays.
by DJL44 on Feb 11, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem—once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." -Al Gallagher
by twinsgirl197 on Feb 11, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
He completed 7 innings or more in 52% of his starts
Only Blackburn (54%) and Pavano (66%) did better. He could still improve on that, as he pitched winter ball before the 2010 season…which gave him over 200 innings for the season.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Stats are numbers
Without context they mean nothing. ERA, WHIP, xFIP, FIP, WAR, and whatever stat you like are just numbers until you comapre them with equvilant numbers. Then they give us a tool to comapre two different things with each other. Every pitcher last year has an ERA, WHIP, FIP, and so on and so on. Looking at the whole body, in this case pitchers, we can figure out what is good and what is not. These are why these stats have meaning and are valuable in arguments.
Using “beating the Yankees in the playoffs” tells us nothing. On your list, just eyeballing it, I can at least tell you 30+ pitchers have never faced the Yankees in the playoffs and much fewer of them faced them last year. Did you take away from other pitchers for not beating the Yankees last year? How about not even making the playoffs? Liriano gets knocked while others don’t. Very fair.
Going “Cutler” is also horrid. I see Sabathia is higher then Liriano but he had over a 5 ERA last year in his two playoff games. Did that hurt him? I’m guessing it didn’t because he has past history and Liriano doesn’t. Kind of hard to judge a pitchers history when they only have 2 playoff games to their name, both of which were two the Yankees. Pretty much every pitcher in your top 20 list has had at least on stinker in the playoffs but why doesn’t it effect them? Did they not go “Cutler”?
Liriano gets knocked for getting the benfit of Taget field but you have 25+ pitchers ahead of him that pitch in the NL. Some of them, Kershaw, Billigsly, Latos, and others not only pitch in the NL but in pitcher frieldy parks. Did you dock off “points” for this? Also, just like batters, most players do better at home then the road.
I have a list of about 1000000 other reasons why your list is insane but I don’t feel like typing it out. You are welcome to think what you like, this is all fluid anyways, but please use less biased stats next time. All I know is Liriano, last year at least, matches up well with any pitcher in all of baseball. Is he a top 20 guy? Not for me but he is for sure a top 30. If Liriano puts up another +4.5 WAR year like he did last year he might even make it to the top 10.
by cmb0252 on Feb 11, 2011 6:00 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+100
Couldn’t say it better myself:) rec’d
"There are three things in my life which I really love: God, my family, and baseball. The only problem—once baseball season starts, I change the order around a bit." -Al Gallagher
by twinsgirl197 on Feb 11, 2011 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Four recs for a post I wrote drunk! Woot
Got to love writing posts after you started drinking at 10 in the morning at a surf tourny.
Maybe you should post drunk more often
I was one of the people who rec’d it, believe it or not.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
My biggest problem
I like that you took the time to explain your position a bit more but here’s my biggest beef with your reasoning. You were very selective in your reasoning on many players. With certain players you used upside and youth as your reasoning, others you pointed out their durability or their career performance as a reason for rating them above Liriano.
While I will say this post did open my eyes a bit to how many pitchers there are out there that I might just take over Liriano. I was thinking he’d fall top 15-20 without doing any research on it. However, I would probably prefer more like 20-30 of these guys over Liriano to start game 1. I was going to go through guy by guy and explain why they are not as good. Long story short there are probably 15-25 guys that I myself can make a clear argument that they would be a better fit than :Liriano as a #1 playoff starter. Then there may be 5-10 guys I would put in the same general class and could understand an argument. Then there is a large list that honestly are just off and I can see no real reason to even consider them.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
That was my problem
He seems to cherry pick stats to suit some preconceived notion that Liriano is a second-tier pitcher. If he had applied a consistent scheme, I would be more apt to agree. The problem is, Liriano is a unique case who doesn’t have a lot of comps in the league. So judging him against any scheme is not easy.
I assume he’s past his injury bug and last year is like his rookie year. Given his raw numbers, a good argument can be made that he was unlucky. By the numbers, he was a top-10 pitcher. And I think he has upside left. All things considered (upside, age, salary, etc.) I would still rank him in the top 10 for the purposes of a trade.
I can think of perhaps 15 pitchers I’d rather have on the mound in Game 1 of the playoffs, because they have more experience and money is not part of that decision. But that was not the question. The question was about is trade value. In trade value, he’s in the top 10.
As for his Game 1 start, I don’t think he pitched that bad. He just ran out of steam early and got no help from his bullpen. I also thought Gardy kept him out there too long. Even with that, he outpitched Sabathia. I sure would have liked a longer start, but he had pitched more innings than he had ever pitched in his life, counting Winter Ball. Not to make excuses, but that experience will strengthen him in coming years. It sure doesn’t diminish his value in any meaningful way.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I really hope..
That Liriano is the Ace people on here believe that he is. I don’t, the Twins haven’t showed that they do & Liriano/Pavano on the front-end of a playoff rotation doesn’t scream sucess to me. And for over 70% (52% good with the playoff rotation we have + 18% who think the first 2 are solid) of people to be satisfied with that 1-2 combo, I won’t even try to articulate why that is baffeling to me.
Yes, I used biased information to put Liriano in the 2nd tier. It is easier to use information that helps me make my point than use contradictory information which is possible to use in almost any argument. I mean, someone earlier said that because of xFIP Liriano is the 2nd best pitcher in MLB!
The question was not about trade value. It was about if I had 1 guy to start a playoff game who would I chose. I chose 55 guys over Liriano. As I said before, I will back off that number a bit, but I’d still take the first 42.
If it is a question of Trade Value… he probably is a top 10 guy because he is under a 1 year contract and under team control for another – but that wasn’t the intention of the post… It was more to piss off people & side with the Twins on the Liriano contract status.
hmmm, so you're just trying to piss people off?
I don’t think anyone got pissed, maybe a little frustrated at your reasoning. Like all fans some people here are homers from time to time. For the most part I think many are fairly realistic regarding Twins players and prospects and their value around the league. Like I said if it’s based solely on who would start a playoff game then yes, there are a lot of veterans on this list that I might want for that one playoff game. On the other hand I believe at this point Liriano is a better pitcher than these guys at this point in his career based on what I believe he’ll do over the course of the season.
I think my biggest problem is that if you’re talking straight playoff starts then why the heck is Stephen Strasburg on there. Yes, he was electrifying but we as Twins fans know all too well how long and hard the recovery from Tommy John can be. He is basically the 2010 version of Liriano but he has proven over an even smaller sample size that he could pitch in the big leagues.
Then there’s any of the A’s pitchers. Yes, they’re all good but if you’re going to randomly pick good pitchers that haven’t even been in high pressure September October games to start a playoff game, that just seems a bit ridiculous.
I could go on but the point is I can agree with some of the veterans that have playoff experience but when you start touting players that haven’t sniffed the playoffs or haven’t pitched more that 70 innings of major league ball that’s where you completely lose me.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
fair enough
To be clear though, Liriano has only pitched 7 2/3 innings of playoff baseball in his career.
The Strasburg arguement is tough for me to get out of. I think Strasburg has (had) the best stuff I have ever seen. He had a 2 seamer that moved so much it looked like a whiffle ball… and it was moving 97 MPH – consistantly. If he can work his way back from that he will have a hall of fame type career. That is a big “if” though and I can see why you question him being on the list.
I do have a huge crush on the A’s staff. There is no doubt. My guess is that Cahill, Anderson & Braden will have tremendous careers with many, many playoff starts when it is all said and done. Most likely, those starts will not be with the A’s, of course.
You are right, I did not disriminate on innings. I think Bumgartner will be incredible, along with Hellickson, Latos, Strasburg & Hanson.
Not just October
I was talking about Pennant race games as well. I have to believe there is a different sort of pressure with those games than regular season games when your 10-15 out of a playoff game.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
No doubt about that.
Liriano made some big starts for us last year. Maybe we will see the A’s guys crack this year. I expect them to see them in a pennant race.
I'm sorry, I asusmed the whole #1 starter in the playoffs thing was an argument to support trade value
’Cause, you know, people are talking about a possible Liriano trade, and stuff.
I honestly can think of 16 pitchers I definitely would rather have on the mound to start Game 1. There are 8 others I might chose depending on the opposition because of match-ups.
More than half of the guys on your list:
A. Have never started a game 1 playoff game and
2. Are not likely to ever start a game 1 playoff game
A. and 2. should be prerequisites for a player to even be in the argument.
Overall, I think you lack foresight. You seem to assume that this is the best Liriano will ever get. But, he’s only 27 and he’s had one full healthy year. He is likely to get better. By the end of this season, the list of guys I would rather have is likely to be much smaller than 16.
You also seem to assume that a lot of the pitchers above Liriano will not get any worse any time soon. I started counting the guys on the downsides of their careers on your list. I stopped counting at 12, about half-way through your list. Many of those guys are on the wrong side of 30 and facing tough rehab (Santana, e.g.).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
absolutely...
It goes back to how I came up with the list. I didn’t put everyone’s numbers on a spreadsheet, analyze all the info that people have told me to look at…. I just went down projected pitching rotations and picked guys that I would rather have start game 1. That is lacking foresight for sure. Nothing could be more true. A gut opinion of whether someone would have success in that scenario is all I did. It’s hard to back up a gut feeling sometimes… I did the best I could.
I hope at age 27 he does improve and I will assume that he does to some degree. However, with 10 professional seasons under his belt it could reasonably be stated that we have seen all that he can be.
He was shut down in 2002 with shoulder problems, he was shut down again for almost the entire 2003 season too, he was shut down by the Twins in 2006 with elbow soreness and then missed 2007 with TJ surgery (obviously the same injury as 2006, rest just did not cure the problem). That being said, it is also conceivable that because of these injuries, focusing on rehabbing the muscles in his arm and shoulder, getting to a less violent delivery & re-learning how to pitch effectively without endangering his future has cost him valuable time to improve. If it were not for these factors he probably would be an top 10 guy.
(To be fair, this exact arguement could probably be used to show why he WILL improve. He hasn’t put together too many consecutive healthy seasons, thus because he has now, he will be primed to make that step in 2011.)
These next couple years will be huge for Liriano. He will be an unrestricted free agent at 29 if the Twins do not give him an extension beyond that. If he can stay healthy & gain the command of his 2-seamer and change-up that is necessary he will be in for a huge payday after the 2011 season.
The question? Knowing what you know about Liriano, everything, the good (his stuff), the bad (his injury history, post- TJ inconsistant performances) do you give the man the contract that he is asking for? Do you take the chance that the worst is behind him or do you see history repeating itself with him? I hope for the former but am leaning towards the latter.
Maybe the best way to refute this is just go down the list
To save space, I will only mention those over whom I would obviously prefer Liriano (no tough calls), and I’ll only take from your first two lists, casue the third list is just ridiculous:
- Stephen Strasberg: Won’t pitch this year. It will be two years before he pitches well. No idea about his eventual quality
- Johan Santana: See Stephen Strasberg
- Roy Oswalt: He’s in serious decline, a #3 starter at this point
- Mat Latos: Has promise, but has never pitched as well as Liriano
- Tommy Hanson: See Latos
- Mark Beuhrle: He’s in serious decline. He’s a #3 at best
- Brett Anderson: Hasn’t pitched more than 125 innings in a season.
- John Danks: He’s OK, but he’s never had a great season.
- Dan Haren: He’s an innings eater. I’d rather have three Twins starters than him
- Chad Billingsly: He’s Kevin Slowey
- Yovani Gallardo: He’s a solid #3 starter
- Madison Bungarner: Seriously? You might as well say Kyle Gibson.
- Dallas Braden: He’s a #4 starter on most teams
- Colby Lewis: Another # 3 starter
- Ricky Romero: Is wild
- Phil Hughes: Is good, probably a #2. But not as good as Liriano
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
ok...
1. You are correct.
2. Correct…. I expect him to be at full strength by the end of the year.
3. Led all of baseball in WHIP, .213 BAA & was 6th in Cy Young voting in 2010. As much as I know hate the Phillies for becoming the Yankees of the NL, I hope that decline starts soon.
4. Already has 1 full season better than any season Liriano has put together.
5. I don’t really get this argument. There isn’t a single scout in baseball that doesn’t drool over Tommy Hanson. If it is the statistical part, 2010 was better for Hanson than Liriano.
6. I sort of agree but he is gritty, has had a solid playoff history and is still very capable on the mound.
7. Very true, more of a gut-instinct on BA
8. He has the mental make-up of Buerhle with better stuff.
9. Couldn’t disagree more. He has great stuff, does eat up a ton of innings but they are very effective innings too & has had consistant success for 6 years now.
10. Scouts strongly disagree with that assesment… CB is a power-arm with control issues (of which he improved tremendously last year)… Slowey is a pure control pitcher who throws 87-90 (91?).
11. Disagree… he does need to cut down on the walks but he is a dominating pitcher. Actually much like Liriano from an ability to dominate a game perspective.
12. Again, scouts do not agree with you on this and either do I. He projects to be a front end pitcher and watching a few of his starts, including the WS against the Rangers, I see why he gets the love he gets.
13. So the perfect game he threw was lucky? He has great stuff and showed it throughout 2010.
14. I hope you are right, I can’t stand the Rangers. He doesn’t throw very hard but he has tremendous tilt and, like I said, beat the Yankees twice last year. If I am picking pitchers that I want to start a playoff game 1 versus the Yankees I will take a guy like this.
15. No doubt … he is wild… maybe I like FL more than him… sometimes frustration in a guy can lead to an exaggeration of ability in others.
16. Unfortunately, I can see Hughes pissing off the Twins for the next decade. Hopefully he implodes (mentally if not physically), his arm falls off, he gets Chuck Knoblauch disorder or otherwise becomes worthless.
Couple comments
4. (Matt Latos) Already has 1 full season better than any season Liriano has put together.
This is where something like xFIP comes in handy. Latos had a much better ERA than Liriano last year, but there are three reasons why that doesn’t completely reflect how well they pitched:
1) Latos pitches in the best pitchers’ park in all of baseball. Target Field suppressed home runs fairly well last year, but it was pretty neutral as far as total runs scored.
2) Latos surrendered a .275 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), while Liriano’s BABIP allowed was .331. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control over how many of the balls they allow into play go for hits – in general, BABIP for pitchers will stabilize somewhere around .300. It’s fairly likely that Latos benefited from some combination of good luck and good defense, while Liriano was adversely affected by the same.
3) Latos got to pitch to opposing pitchers. Liriano did not. ERAs in the NL are almost always lower due to the absence of designated hitters.
Also, if you’re complaining about Liriano not going deep enough into games, I’d point out that Latos threw fewer innings than Liriano last year in the same number of starts.
13. (Dallas Braden) So the perfect game he threw was lucky? He has great stuff and showed it throughout 2010.
All perfect games are lucky, to an extent. Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux never threw perfect games, either, but you wouldn’t use that fact to claim that Tom Browning was better than them. Heck, Scott Baker came two batters from throwing a perfect game once; if he had done that, we wouldn’t be claiming that he’s better than Liriano.
Dallas Braden was very good last year, but he also benefited from a great pitchers’ park – his rate of home runs on fly balls was extraordinarily low, and his BABIP was low as well.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
pitchers park
I get the ballpark effect but it is one of the most overstated and overvalued statistics used. Discounting a pitchers season because of the park he pitches in is a dangerous position to take and reduces the actual ability the pitcher has. Plenty of pitchers have come through the A’s and Padres system on the MLB level and have not been any good. On a macro level, it is absoulutely correct. There is statistics to back it up. Some parks are more advantageous for pitchers than others. On a micro level though, individual talents shouldn’t be ignored because of the park they pitch in. Latos was in the top 10 in nearly every NL pitching statistic. This is a direct comparison to his NL peers – maybe that is not fair to compare an NL guy to an AL guy. He was also on a strict pitch count last year as well. He was not allowed to start an inning if he had more than 94 pitches. Maybe the Twins did the same thing with Liriano, I don’t know, but I don’t expect Latos to be resticted again.
As far as the Braden thing, I was trying to illustrate the fact that he must have somewhat decent stuff if he can throw a perfect game as well as have a solid overall season. It intended no comparison to pitchers who have thrown PG’s and those who haven’t. CM called him a #4 pitcher, in a brief rebutal I put the PG out there as some evidence that he isn’t a below average MLB starter.
re: pitchers park
I get the ballpark effect but it is one of the most overstated and overvalued statistics used. Discounting a pitchers season because of the park he pitches in is a dangerous position to take and reduces the actual ability the pitcher has.
Ignoring park effects is a much more dangerous position than considering them. When you ignore park effects, you give Barry Zito eleventy billion dollars. When you ignore park effects, you make crazy suggestions like trading Liriano for Michael Young despite the fact that Young’s homers are almost all hit in the Little League park he plays home games in. (NOTE: I’m not accusing you in particular of any of these; “you” is used generally) I’m not saying we discount all the stats of everyone who plays in an extreme park, but I am saying that we should be aware of the effects and consider how they may have affected that player’s results.
Latos had a great year last year; I don’t want to take that away from him. But I also don’t think it makes sense to look at his stats without context. Liriano had a better strikeout rate than Latos and a better ground ball rate, while Latos had a better walk rate. They were both really good pitchers.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
but you did...
in your argument against Latos you used the ballpark he pitches in as one of the reasons he had a statistically good season. now you are saying you don’t want to take his good season away from him.
That is what I mean by it is a dangerous take. Latos is dirty, period. Put him in any ballpark and i think his stuff is straight nasty, his stats are impressive…. and starting game 1 of the ALDS for me would be Latos over Liriano.
Thou shalt not twist mine words
in your argument against Latos you used the ballpark he pitches in as one of the reasons he had a statistically good season. now you are saying you don’t want to take his good season away from him.
Both of those can simultaneously be true; they are in no way mutually exclusive. I believe both of the following points:
1) Latos’ statistics were inflated (or, rather, his ERA was deflated) partially because he played in the most extreme pitchers’ park in baseball
2) Latos had a great year
This is not a black or white situation (he either had a great year or he didn’t). Rather, there are levels of “great” – he was excellent, but it’s possible that he wasn’t quite as excellent as his raw ERA would make you think, in part because he was assisted by a friendly home park and/or good defense behind him.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I see the problem...
I am talking about who I like as a pitcher… I like Latos more.
I don’t care what ballpark these guys pitch in… I understand that certain parks can have an effect on statistics.
Look at Liriano for instance:
SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
Away 3.10 .267 .336 .368 .704 .362
Home 3.86 .239 .297 .344 .641 .314
Significant difference between pitching at and away from Target Field I don’t care about this too much. I don’t care if Liriano had a big advantage because 55% of his batters faced were at Target Field.
When I look at what Latos brings to the mound and do the same for Liriano, I take Latos.
That's fine
You’re well within your rights to like Latos better. My initial post was merely taking issue with your assertion that Latos “already has 1 full season better than any season Liriano has put together”. I don’t think it’s that clear-cut, for the reasons I mentioned before, including park factor.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Fair enough...
and I should let this go but …
both are in very friendly pitcher parks (very little foul ground and very low HR rates); both benefited.
I sorta thought it was a bad idea to argue with you
Now I know. Perhaps the fact that you posted the same fanpost twice so that you could keep arguing about it with all comers was a red flag.
I’ll just repeat with halfchest said: You pick and choose how to argue in favor of a guy after you decide you like him better than Liriano. For one guy, it’s WHIP. For anther guy, it’s innings. For a third, it’s ERA., for a fourth, it’s scouts. Not once does any of the guys on my list beat Liriano in a consistent set of metrics or scouting reports.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Here's my take
I hate take because it makes me think of Jim Rome and he’s an idiot most of the time. However my take is I respect that he gave the 2nd post defending his position. I think he picked and chose his stats and it almost feels like Al is just trying very very hard to be the devils advocate. To some extent, I think it’s a bit refreshing but it’s gone too far and it’s almost feel like Al is a troll from a white sox or yankees site just trying to start stuff. I don’t think that’s the case but the ridiculous nature in which he defends some of his opinions is a bit mind blowing.
On the other hand though he has been willing to admit some of his mistakes such as Strasburg. When I look over the list I see maybe half of these guys that I can see a semi legit argument that they’re on the same plain as Liriano for wanting them to start a playoff game. Maybe 10-15 that are clearly guys I would take over Liriano, and 15-20 that I see no way a person could legitimately argue them to be better than Liriano in any way.
The big thing with Liriano is that if he can come close to replicating his 2010 season he’s an obvious top 10 pitcher in the leage. He had a top 5 season this year in the league with the only legitimate knock against him being that he maybe should have pitched 220-230 innings rather than 192. My prediction for 2011 is that he doesn’t pitch as well by the nontraditional statistics like xFIP but ends up with a better ERA and WHIP than in 2010. The problem is this will make him extremely expensive to extend.
So I truly believe that Liriano is a top 10 pitcher in the league. I think that will be shown this year. However, given his injury history and the potential to get re-injured (which every pitcher despite history is similarly likely to be injured) he isn’t clearly in that top echelon of pitcher. He’s had one half phenomenal year ended by injury. Some struggles following that and a great comeback year in 2010 that is underrated due to traditional metrics. So he’s not clearly a top 10 or even top 25 pitcher at this point. However he’s obviously not #56 either. There’s a lot of real arguments that can be made because of the abundance of different statistics and what you value.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
sometimes
An unpopular take looks intentional… it looks like a gimic take… trying to get a response. Now, I knew that most people would not agree with this. But I really just wrote it to support the Twins decision not to sign Liriano for the reported 3 year $39M offer. That is ace money. He is not one yet. I hope he is one in 2011…
That is not ace money
That’s barely a step above Ted Lilly and Carlos Silva money. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are getting ace money, and that’s on the order of $20M/year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
ace money
Here are the top 30 starting pitcher’s salaries from 2010
1 CC Sabathia 30 $24,285,714.00
2 Johan Santana 31 $20,144,707.00
3 Carlos Zambrano 29 $18,875,000.00
4 John Lackey 32 $18,700,000.00
5 Barry Zito 32 $18,500,000.00
6 A.J. Burnett 34 $16,500,000.00
7 Chris Carpenter 35 $15,840,971.00
8 Roy Halladay 33 $15,750,000.00
9 Hiroki Kuroda 36 $15,433,333.00
10 Roy Oswalt 33 $15,000,000.00
11 Jake Peavy 29 $15,000,000.00
12 Derek Lowe 37 $15,000,000.00
13 Mark Buehrle 31 $14,000,000.00
14 Ryan Dempster 33 $13,500,000.00
15 Ted Lilly 35 $13,000,000.00
16 Jeff Suppan 36 $12,750,000.00
17 Carlos Silva 31 $12,750,000.00
18 Aaron Harang 32 $12,500,000.00
19 Jeremy Bonderman 28 $12,500,000.00
20 Josh Beckett 30 $12,100,000.00
21 Oliver Perez 29 $12,000,000.00
22 Kevin Millwood 36 $12,000,000.00
23 Bronson Arroyo 33 $11,625,000.00
24 Javier Vazquez 34 $11,500,000.00
25 Jake Westbrook 33 $11,000,000.00
26 Ben Sheets 32 $10,000,000.00
27 Aaron Cook 32 $ 9,625,000.00
28 Kyle Lohse 32 $ 9,187,500.00
29 Tim Lincecum 26 $ 9,000,000.00
30 Cliff Lee 32 $ 9,000,000.00
$13 Million a year would put him right in the middle of this list. Isn’t that Ace money? Maybe our definitions are different but to me, if you are paid in the top 15 out of 150 starting pitching spots in baseball that puts you among the other aces.
Let me ask you this (this is a little off topic, but I am curious), how many “Aces” are there in MLB today? What constitutes an “Ace” to you?
This isn't a fair comparison
This isn’t a list of the best 30 pitchers – it’s a list of the highest-paid 30 pitchers. In order to be a highly-paid pitcher, you generally have to be past your arbitration years, when your team has to pay you commensurate with what you’d get on the open market. The guys on this list are all guys who have been in the league long enough that they’re paid market rate for their services. Guys like Liriano (so far), Cain, and Strasburg are not paid at that level because they haven’t accumulated enough service time that their teams have to pay them that much.
Look at the guys who got $10-13M/year as free agents – Carlos Silva, Ted Lilly, Bronson Arroyo. Good pitchers, sure, but none of them are what anyone would consider an “ace”.
For what it’s worth, I consider an “ace” one of the top 20 or so pitchers in baseball, the kind of guy where you generally assume your team is going to win when he’s on the mound. I’d like to see Liriano do it for another year, but I think he’s certainly earned the right to be in the conversation based on last year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Exactly
If you get a list together of the 30 best pitchers the dollar amounts will be even lower! This list at least illustrates, across the league, the financial measurment of the top 30. If Liriano is among the top 30, slot him where you think he should be paid according to where you rank him.
You seem to by implying
that the Twins don’t view him as an Ace because they didn’t go for the 3/39 deal. Well, they didn’t go for the extension because they can get him much cheaper for the next two years. Unless Liriano is willing to give up more FA years or take less money in 2012, it doesn’t make fiscal sense for the Twins to agree to that deal.
CM - You listed out your objections...
What was I supposed to do? If someone takes the time to write a list contrary to a post the least the writer of the post can do is take the time to write back to them about their position on those claims. I would assume you would expect that. It isn’t about getting the last word or arguing to win a point but when a contrary position is taken I feel like it is okay for me to write why I feel that way. You disagree with my take, that is great! Most people do on this topic. I assumed they would. That isn’t going to scare me away from writing about it though.
FYI, I did not post the same fanpost twice so I could keep arguing, I was asked in the last fanpost to clarify my position. So I took some time to write up on those questioned. I backed off on 13 of them but I still tried to defend my position on 42 guys.
I get the love for Liriano. He had a great 2010. He had an amazing 2006. Other than those years we have to question his value. The injury history, the fade & inconsistancy down the stretch last year and a tough playoff game. Those things are okay to talk about. Most people see him as a top 20 pitcher, some a top 10 guy. I don’t and I wanted to write about it because there is some rumblings among Twins fans about Liriano’s contract, the Joe C article about the Twins position on his value & whether Liriano is really the guy that the Twins should pay #1 money for.
What was I supposed to do?
Here’s what I would hope for. Use three or four statistics uniformly across all pitchers. For example, I would use 2010 xFIP, 2010 innings, age and career xFIP. That way, you know what he did last year, you know his age and you know what he has done over his career. Use that set of metrics against every pitcher on your list. Then see where they stack up, disqualifying injured pitchers.
If you do that exercise, Liriano will end up somewhere between 10 and 25 on your list, depending on how you weight last year’s performance against career performance, and how you factor in the age/performance bell curve. xFIP is not perfect, but it’s the state of the art because it factors out defense, park, and luck from the equation. So it will tend to result in more accurate predictions of how pitchers will perform when factors outside of the pitchers’ control vary.
If you want to convince an audience of something, use the reasoning patterns that they use to convince each other. It’s called rhetoric. It’s a habit of highly effective people.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I understand how you feel
I would want a really simple way to explain my reasoning. There are a million ways to justify a million positions. I am in a tough spot because, as a wrote in the post, I looked at the rotations of other MLB teams and thought ‘Would I want this guy to start game 1 of the ALDS or would I take Frankie’. That is it.
I get how you want me to put stats out from 2010 on my stance. That would back up most people’s view that he is a top 25 guy (as you stated as well).
I apologize that I don’t have the habits of highly effective people. My intention was not to convince anybody of anything but rather to point out some things that backed my beliefs about Liriano’s spot in baseball. Other people used those reasoning paterns to tell me I am wrong, I did the best I could to explain a gut feeling I have of some other players. That can be a difficult thing to do… My apologies if I offended you. That wasn’t my intention.
OK, but excuse me for not having your gut feeling
You’re certainly free to believe what you want and post it. Just don’t expect anybody else to believe it without evidence.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Liriano's career
Y’know looking over his career he really only has had one bad year and that was 2009. He missed all of 07 because of injury and when he came back at the beginning of 08 he wasn’t ready yet as he hadn’t regained any of his “stuff” be it control, velocity, break etc. However I think we forget that he returned and pitched 11 starts of 2.74 ERA ball while striking out about a batter per inning, sub 4.00 xFIP and FIP, and a 3 to 1 K/BB ratio. So really, Liriano has had way more positive starts than negative. I won’t use the injury excuse for 2009. He was definitely a bit unlucky by some metrics but even had his ERA matched his other numbers that year he would have been around a 4 – 4.5 ERA.
The more we’ve been discussing this the more I feel like the Twins ought to pay the man now. I think a 3/39 extension isn’t that off the mark. If you figure he’s getting 4 this year then it’s a 4/43 deal. I would think they’d come down a bit get it to be more like a total of 4/40 similar to what Greinke and Josh Johnson got at similar points in their career.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
that is the question...
3 years, $39M might look like a bargain when he is 11-2 with a 2.54 ERA at the all-star break and his agent throws out the 5 year, $80M number at us. If that is the case he is as good as gone… sooner, rather than later.
We don't know what years the proposed extension was for
If it was 3/39 starting this year, the Twins’ position makes a lot of sense and I can see why the sides appeared to be so far apart. The club would be assuming all the risk and only getting one (very expensive) FA year.
Agreed
If the 3 year thing is including this year then it’s an absolute ripoff, he’d be getting 17.5 million a year the last two years of the deal. That’s ridiculous money. A 4/40 deal would be a solid calculated risk by both sides. Liriano could still hit free agency at 31 and be in line for a mega deal if he earns it.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
It's a good deal...
If you are confident in his health…. the results are pretty solid when he is and at 27 you can assume that he is coming into his own and will actually improve over the next couple of years. If he is solid this year I can see the Twins giving him a 4/40 before spring training next year. That makes much more sense.
If he has another good year
he may not want to sign for 4/40. He will be 29 when he hits free agency which will put him in good position to make much more than that.
Agreed
If he has another good year, he’ll be looking at $8-10M next year just through arbitration. If he’s a 200-inning, 3.5 ERA guy next year, he probably won’t get less than 3/$45M in the free agent market, and I’d not be surprised by 5/$80M.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Why 4/years, $43.5 million is a good deal with the Twins
Just basing that number on the 3/39 extension bandied about.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Is that including this year?
I was assuming the “4/$40” suggestion was for a contract starting next year (2012-2015). Liriano would have to either be really pessimistic about 2011 or really enjoy Minnesota in order to take a deal like that.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
It includes this year
A 3 yr/39 mil extension is what I was talking about.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
a stretch
Rank Pitcher
1 Roy Halladay
2 Tim Lincecum
3 Ubaldo Jimenez
4 Felix Hernandez
5 Josh Johnson
6 Cliff Lee
7 David Price
8 Jon Lester
9 Justin Verlander
10 Jared Weaver
11 Chris Carpenter
12 Clayton Kershaw
13 Zach Greinke
14 CC Sabathia
15 Stephen Strasberg
16 Matt Cain
17 Adam Wainwright 18 Johan Santana 19 Tim Hudson 5 top 10 Cy Young seasons, 7 200+ inning seasons & has 9 Postseason starts including a win versus the Yankees in the Postseason.
20 Roy Oswalt 6 Top 10 Cy Young seasons, 7 seasons of 200+ innings, career WHIP under 1.19, 5-1 in the Postseason. Pitched 7 or more innings in 20 of his 33 2010 starts
21 Fausto Carmona Had a great finish to 2010 and completed his second 200+ inning season. Stuff is back & he has beaten the Yankees in the Post-season.
22 Mat Latos Absolutely intimidating young pitcher. WHIP under 1.09, High K-rate & was 8th in the NL in Cy Young voting last year. More to come from Latos as he establishes himself as one of the top NL pitchers.
23 Tommy Hanson Pitched 200+ innings in his first full MLB season. The highly touted “Future Ace of the Braves” is here now. WHIP under 1.18 & 4 years younger than Liriano.
24 Mark Buerhle Has never thrown under 200 innnings in his full time career. 1.28 Career WHIP, has beaten the Red Sox in Postseason & pitched at least 7 innings in each PS start.
25 Brett Myers Former first rounder who had the same 2010 WAR as Liriano. Pitched over 220 innings, Top 10 in NL Cy Young.
26 Clay Bucholz Similar to Liriano in age & 2010 stats but Bucholz to me is just a better pitcher at this point. 6th in Cy Young voting last year and a year younger than FL.
27 Brett Anderson Former 2nd round pick with tremendous tilt on his pitches, 4 years younger than Liriano & had a WHIP of under 1.20 in an injury shortened season. Watch out in 2011.
28 John Danks Another former 1st rounder who has steadily progressed the last 3 years. 2 years younger than FL and has that fiery attitude to become the #1 starter in Chicago.
29 Dan Haren 6 straight 200+ innings, career WHIP under 1.20. Beat the Twins in the 2006 Postseason (Oh Radke!). Top 5 Cy Young in 2009.
30 Chad Billingsley Another former 1st rounder who has decreased his WHIP each of the last 4 years. A year younger than Liriano and on the verge of turning into the true #1 the Dodgers saw him becoming.
31 Cole Hamels A career WHIP under 1.18, 12 career Postseason starts, 6 PS Wins and is the same age as Liriano. 2 Seasons over 200+ innings and a Top 10 Cy Young in 2007.
32 Yovani Gallardo Former 2nd round pick with a power arm, Gallardo was an All-Star in 2010, threw a solid Postseason start against the Phillies in 2008 & is 3 years younger than FL. (And what a hitter!)
33 Madison Bumgarner It may be hard to gauge how good Bumgarner is but at 21, this former 1st round pick was fast tracked for good reason. He’s going to be amazing! Not sure? Just re-watch his WS game start vs. the Rangers.
34 Matt Garza Former 1st rounder of the Twins, Garza completed his 2nd straight 200+ innning season. He has beaten the Red Sox twice in postseason and threw a brilliant No-Hitter last year.
35 Dallas Braden Threw a perfect game and HATES A-Rod. What’s not to like about Braden? 5 Complete Games out of 30 starts and a WHIP under 1.16. With he and Anderson & Cahill, no wonder people like the A’s in 2011!
36 Colby Lewis Former 1st rounder who is a late bloomer. Now 31, he threw over 200 innings in his first full season, had a WHIP under 1.19 and beat the Yankees TWICE in the Postseason.
37 Johnny Cueto He has improved his WHIP each of his first 3 seasons and, IMO, is primed for a huge year in 2011. He is 3 years younger than Liriano and has improved his command enough to be considered the #1 guy in Cincy
38 Ervin Santana Born the same year as FL, he has 3 seasons of 200+ innings and has a Top 10 Cy Young season in 2008. He also has 3 seasons of 16 wins and beat the Yankees after throwing 5+ brilliant innings of relief in 2005 ALDS.
39 Trevor Cahill 22 year old righty starting his 3rd season in MLB. 2010 was a masterpiece of a season with an ERA of 2.92 a WHIP of 1.10 and went on to win 18 games. A 2010 All-Star and was 9th in Cy Young voting
40 Ricky Romero Another former 1st Round pick, Romero pitched in just his 2nd season in MLB. He dramatically improved his WHIP down to 1.29, won 14 games and threw 210 innings. He is also a year younger than Liriano
41 Phil Hughes 3 years younger than Liriano, Hughes won 18 games last year, had a WHIP under 1.25 and threw a 7 inning gem against the Twins in the ALDS shutting us out on 4 hits.
42 Josh Beckett If healthy, there is no question in my mind that Beckett is better than Liriano. That was the question last year though as this former 20 game winner struggled. He got 2nd place in the Cy Young vote in 2007
43 Jeremy Hellickson
44 Max Scherzer
45 Wandy Rodriquez
46 Ted Lilly 47 John Lackey
48 C.J. Wilson
49 Bronson Arroyo
50 Daniel Hudson
51 Gavin Floyd
52 Hiroki Kuroda
53 Jeremy Guthrie
54 Ryan Dempster
55 Edinson Volquez
56 Francisco Liriano
i could maaaaybe start to agree with you if you threw these guys out, Al Damlo
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 15, 2011 3:16 PM EST reply actions
You picked some...
odd ones to agree with and some odd ones to disagree with …
…
you take off Johan (injury concern, I get it… ), Wainwright & Oswalt but you are leaving on Scherzer, Arroyo & Guthrie?
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