Marcel the Monkey Takes a Look at the 2011 Twins


Marcel is Tom Tango's projection system.  It's freely available at fangraphs.  It's based on a weighted average of prior seasons, aging factors, and regression to the mean.  I've combined the projected wOBA with a weighted average of UZR regressed to the fan scouting report, positional adjustments, and replacement level to calculate each players projected WAR.  I don't include a baserunning component and catcher defense is unregressed.  

The defense line is a combination of UZR and the positional adjustment.  For example, Morneau is rated as a +4 at 1B so his total defensive rating is -8 to account for the -12.5 positional adjustment for a 1B.  

I used a league average batting and defensive projection for Nishioka since a marcel projection was not available.  I think this is conservative as I've seen WAR projections as high as 3.3 from the Oliver system at THT.  I projected Morneau for 600 AB and Thome for 300.  I've got Slowey in the bullpen as a swingman.  Duensing and Slowey's projections are close enough to be interchangeable.  We'd pick up a little more than 0.5 WAR if Blackburn is the one to go to the pen. 

So does 88ish wins and a run at a 3rd straight central division title seem right?  Link to full spreadsheet and numbers below the jump.


  contract  woba/fip defense war
1B Morneau 14 FA-13 0.373 -8 3.4
2B Casilla 0.9 A1 0.31 2 1.2
SS Nishioka 3 A1-13+ 0.33 2.5 2.3
3B Valencia 0.45 S1 0.346 9.5 3.8
C Mauer 23 FA-18 0.385 19 6.3
LF Young 5.5 A2 0.335 -20 0.3
CF Span 1 S3-14+ 0.337 0 2.4
RF Cuddyer 10.5 FA-11 0.333 -18 0.3
DH Kubel 5.25 FA-11 0.343 -22 0.4
INF Tolbert 0.45 A3 0.304 1 0.3
DH Thome 3 FA-11 0.36 -22 1
C Butera 0.45 S2 0.294 19 0.1
OF Repko 0.6 A2 0.311 7 0.4
SP1 Liriano 4.3 A2 3.48  4.04
SP2 Baker 5 A2-13+ 3.98  3.04
SP3 Pavano 8 A1 4.09  2.82
SP4 Blackburn 3 A1-13+ 4.47  2.06
SP5 Duensing 0.45 S2 4  3
CL Nathan 11.25 FA-11+ 3.55  0.95
SU Capps 7.2 A3 3.85  0.5
SU Mijares 0.45 S2 3.95  0.4
RP Burnett 0.45 S1 4.3  0.1
RP Neshek 0.6 A2 4.18  0.2
RP Perkins 0.7 A1 4.39  0.1
RP Slowey 2.7 A1 3.25  0.7
 112.2    88.11

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