Twinkie Town Q&A with Twins Assistant GM Rob Antony, 2011
As always, a huge thanks to Rob for taking time out of his day to chat. I always seem to run over my half hour by about ten minutes, and he's always been really good about it. Our chat this spring covers a lot of ground for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but we also talk about the Francisco Liriano trade rumors, Justin Morneau's health, who the Twins will look to for depth in the minors, and there's some insight as to how the Twins approached their off-season including the J.J. Hardy trade. Enjoy!
Jesse: One of the Twins' more high-profile moves this winter was bringing in Nishioka. At what point did he pop up on your radar?
Rob Antony: We knew about him from our international scouts and I was talking with his agent, I don't even remember the exact timeframe, but he was asking what we were looking to do in the off-season. I told him we were trying to get a little more athletic and maybe add a little speed to the lineup, and I told him I really wasn't sure where we were going to be able to do that apart from maybe the middle infield, because Orlando Hudson was going to be a free agent and I wasn't sure what we were going to do with J.J. Hardy. We may bring him back, we may not, we may deal him, I wasn't sure what we were going to do at that point.
So we kicked around a lot of ideas and he [Nishioka's agent] said "Gee, I never thought of you guys, but I represent a guy who I believe is going to become available as a free agent from Japan." We started talking about it and we followed up with more information, more research, talking to people and whatnot, our scouts had conviction that he'd be a good middle infielder for us and fill the need we had for some speed and athletecism up the middle.
J: Are there any expectations at this point for how you look for him to progress?
RA: He's still a younger player and we believe there's still more upside and that he has more ceiling, that he can get better than he is even now. I don't think we have...we would love to see him and Alexi Casilla win the middle infield spots, whether one's at short and one's at second. It doesn't matter to us to be honest with you.
But if he doesn't, and he starts off in more of a utility role or platoon situation or something--I think you always understand that it's going to take some time for the transition and for somebody to get acclimated to not only Major League Baseball but to the United States. When he's never been over here, there's a lot of things for him to go through, cultural changes and differences and that type of thing.
So we have beliefs and expectations that he can be a good player. I don't think we went into this thing saying "This is a high-profile guy where if he doesn't hit .300 and hit ten home runs and steal 50 bases then we didn't get what we thought we were getting." We don't look at it that way. We think he has a chance to be a solid, everyday player, and if he does it from Day 1 that's great; if it takes a little time, that would not be a shock.
J: You talked about cultural differences. Do you think that the language barrier will play into his relationship with Casilla or whoever else he'll be playing with in the middle infield?
RA: You try and minimize that--we have an interpreter for him. There's always some things that are going to take a little time and some things that will get lost in translation, but you hope to minimize them.
But first and foremost, on the baseball field he's a baseball player. There are a lot of things that are somewhat universal. There are other times and other things where the translator comes into play and can explain what we're looking for or what he needs to do. But he and Casilla are about the same age, so there's going to be some similarities as well as the differences. I think they'll be able to work well together.
J: With all the media that's been committed to him, I think I read he has something like five reporters committed to covering him playing in Major League Baseball, is that going to have any kind of an effect on the balance in the Twins' clubhouse?
RA: I don't think so, I think all of the players understand that it's a little bit of a unique situation. There are players who have come from other clubs where there have been Japanese players. They've seen how it works with the interpreters and with the media and all that other stuff, so I think it'll be a learning experience for some of our guys and our staff, but I think everyone's pretty open-minded and understands that this requires some unique things, and they're ready to deal with it.
J: At what point were you confident that you were going to win the bid for Nishioka? Did you know you were going to be in play for it, or were you not really sure?
RA: That's a really tough situation when you do a blind bid. The only thing you can do is say what you're willing to do. If you try to out-smart yourself or think about what other bids are going to be, or determine everyone else's interest in the player, you're going to get cute and you're going to miss out on the player by bidding too low or you'll out-smart yourself and bid way more than you needed to in order to get the rights to the player. So we just determined what we thought he was worth, and if we win this bid here's what we're willing to pay him.
We won the bid, and the contract that we gave him is exactly what we pretty much anticipated and were willing to give. $15 million, or $14-something, is what the end result was, and that's over the course of three years and there's an option for a fourth year. That's kind what what we believed we were willing to do. That's the way it played out.
J: With Orlando Hudson becoming a free agent you just kind of assume there wasn't a whole lot of interest in bringing him back, and looking at the middle infield free agent market was going after Nishioka kind of a reflection on maybe the organization's disatisfaction with what was available on the market at those positions?
RA: I think a little bit. Orlando did a great job for us, but like I said, TK...
...TK? (Laughs.)
...Gardy, when we sat down at talked with him, had a lot of interest in trying to add some speed and athletecism to the lineup. Orlando can run, but he's not what you'd consider a huge base stealer. He plays great defense, he's won Gold Gloves for a reason, but with Casilla and getting Nishioka we looked at that as an opportunity to get [faster and more athletic].
When we looked at the free agent market I don't think anybody jumped out at us that wouldn't have cost more money, or not exactly filled what we were looking to do. J.J. Hardy did a good job for us, he had a few injuries last year but when healthy he did a nice job for us. But like I say, there weren't many other areas in our lineup where we could add speed to it, other than in the middle of the infield because everybody else was kind of locked in at the other positions.
J: I think this is my last question on Nishioka--if Nishioka starts out in that utility or platoon role as you mentioned, or if something happens where Casilla doesn't really take hold of a position like you're hoping he will, who's your backup plan?
RA: The guys that are battling for those spots are Luke Hughes, and Trevour Plouffe--are probably the two main guys. Matt Tolbert, we like him a lot as a utility guy who we can move around to give different guys a break. But Hughes and Plouffe are the two primary guys who could try to pry a starting position away from Casilla or Nishioka.
J: You've already brought up J.J. Hardy. At our website at least, it was one of the more controversial moves of the off-season. What was the impetus behind moving him?
RA: It goes back to the speed portion of the thing, as well as the fact that he was going to make somewhere between $5.5 and $6 million dollars. We just decided that we wanted to put that money into other areas. We had to make a lot of tough decisions.
We had a tremendous bullpen last year. And we knew we couldn't bring all those guys back. We had Pavano out as a free agent, we had Thome as a free agent, and we had to start prioritizing. And basically we just decided that trying to fit all those guys into a budget was going to be impossible. Some of those guys, the Crain's and Guerrier's, were looking at three and four-year deals and we just didn't think we could do that. We couldn't do the dollars, and we could't do the length that they were looking for. We made the decision that we would try to bring in some other people to pitch in the middle of the bullpen. We were going to keep Matt Capps and Joe Nathan at the back end of that thing, we still had Jose Mijares and some other guys who had pitched out of the 'pen for us in the past, but we'll need some guys to step up.
But in the J.J. Hardy situation we just looked at it and said "We may need to take that $6 million and go another route."
The Nishioka thing, that's $3 million dollars a year, those are the dollars that are committed to it as far as the budget goes.
J: I think that'll clear something up. I think I know the answer to this, but the winning bid--the $5 million and change you put forward for Nishioka--that does not count towards the payroll. Correct?
RA: That's correct. And actually I believe it was $4.7 or something...
J: Was it?
RA: Yes, it was less than $5 million.
J: Okay. We know that other teams, like the Padres and Giants, were looking for shortstops as well around the time you dealt to Baltimore. Were there other conversations involving Hardy with other teams?
RA: We had other conversations, but this was by far our best opportunity to make a deal. There were teams who had interest, but know what they would have to pay...we did have conversations, but there were never any real bonafide offers.
J: What role did Brendan Harris play in the deal to the Orioles?
RA: They were looking for a utility guy as well as a starting shortstop, and it became apparent that Harris wasn't going to be a fit here. And he was guaranteed $1.75 [million]. So in that deal not only did we trade Hardy, who was going to make between $5.5 and $6 million, but we also moved Harris who was guaranteed $1.75 million. It cleared some payroll for us to do some other things, and it gave Brendan another opportunity and a fresh start with another club.
J: How do guys like Jim Hoey and, well, Hoey more than Brett Jacobson, how do they fit into your plans?
RA: Hoey is a candidate to be one of our bullpen guys. We don't have many guys...we don't have any guys in camp who are throwing 97 like he does. For him it's just a matter of throwing strikes and being able to command his secondary stuff. He has a legitimate chance to be one of our bullpen guys.
And Jacobson, we really like his future. He's another mid-90s [fastball] guy. So we were able to acquire velocity out of the bullpen, which was something that was a goal for us.
The fit was right with them. They had interest, they looked at it and said "This is the starting shortstop we want", we looked at it and said "You have the pieces that we would have interest in", in a non-roster guy who throws hard in Jacobson and another guy who has a chance to pitch out of our bullpen in Hoey.
J: With Hardy, was any part of his deal, did any of it have anything to do with the effort he exerted on the field?
RA: No. No. J.J., he's a little bit of a low-key guy, very similar to Joe Mauer, but there was never a lack of effort or a lack of work ethic or anything else. He's a great guy. He worked hard. He had a couple of freak injuries. But I think he's going to have a good year and I wouldn't be surprised if he came out and played 140 games this year for Baltimore. I think he'll be healthy and I think he'll be productive.
It was a good deal for them, and I think it was a good deal for us for all of the reasons I've cited as well.
J: He was one of my biggest sources of frustration last year. I really liked him as a player, and personally I had hoped he was going to come back because I do think he's poised for a bit of a bounce back season.
But looking at Hoey, is Rick Anderson confident that he can help all those big numbers Hoey's had in the minors translate to the Majors?
RA: I don't think Rick Anderson, until this week, he hasn't spent much time with him. He basically just said "Man, that guy can throw it through a wall." But we know that, we know he throws hard, he just needs to throw strikes and be able to use his secondary stuff.
Our scouting reports say that this guy should fit for us in that sixth or seventh inning, as the guy who comes in for an inning, throws hard, and can get people out. So if he throws strikes, he has an opportunity to make the club and be one of those three guys or something that we're looking for.
We have openings in the bullpen. It's going to be a chance for guys to jump up and sieze the opportunity.
J: That was actually going to be my next question. You've got Capps at the back end and Mijares. You hope that Nathan, who at 80% is still better than most pitchers in the league, you hope that he's ready to go. Who are the guys who are in the running for those last three or four bullpen spots?
RA: We've got a whole host of them. That's the thing, we've got numbers, but some guys are ahead of other guys.
Alex Burnett, who pitched some out of the 'pen for us last year, has a chance to make this club. Scott Diamond, who we took as a Rule V guy, was a starter at triple-A for the Braves and we like him in long relief. He's left handed and he throws strikes--he's got three pitches he can throw for strikes. Phil Dumatrait, who was a high-draft pick for Boston and has some Major League experience from the left side, throws average, he's a guy.
There's a couple other guys that we really like who may not quite be ready. Carlos Gutierrez, Eric Hacker.
But we picked up Dusty Hughes off waivers from Kansas City, we like him. We like Hoey. Chuck James had a very good bounce back year after some injuries, he's going to be in the mix as a non-roster guy. Jeff Manship was up and down with us [last year], Pat Neshek's trying to come back after his surgery--his second year back he looks a lot stronger. If he's back throwing an average fastball, and he's got that slider, I don't see why he wouldn't have a very good chance of making this club. Glen Perkins threw the ball well in relief last September. The ball was jumping out of his hand much better than it had for a couple years. Anthony Slama's put up great numbers in the minor leagues. Now's the time to find out if he's ready to make that jump. He had a very brief opportunity with us last year but now he's got a legitimate chance of earning one of those spots, he's very tough on right handers. And Kyle Waldrop, he had a very good year but I think he tired, and he didn't have a very good Arizona Fall League, but I think a lot of it was because he was tired.
Those are a lot of names, but we legitimately give these guys a chance. Some of these guys are probably a bit more of a reach or aren't quite ready, but they could go down and then help us at some point this year if the guys that do go north with us this year don't get it done.
J: I want to go back to Dusty Hughes for a second, but I want to ask a quick question about Waldrop. He wasn't protected during the Rule V. Were you confident that he just wasn't going to get taken, or was that just a decision that needed to be made?
RA: It was a tough call, but it was a decision that needed to be made. We considered him.
He could have become a six-year free agent but he signed back with us on a minor league deal. We left him out there, but part of it was calculated because he didn't pitch very well in the Arizona Fall League, which is heavily scouted. We took a shot that he would not get selected, and we were pleased that he didn't.
J: And with Dusty Hughes, obviously you had to DFA Rob Delaney who went to Tampa Bay. What did you see in Hughes that made you jump on him?
RA: We saw him about ten times last year with the Royals. What they'd do is they'd bring him in every time, about the sixth or seventh inning when we had a bunch of lefties coming up, and all he did was get Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Thome out with regularity. And those guys do a pretty good job against left-handers.
He was tough on us. He had a .260 batting average against lefties, which isn't dominant, but this guy knows how to pitch. He can get lefties and righties out. We just think he's a good fit for a left-handed guy who might be able to pitch for an inning or two if you need him to.
J: With all those bullpen guys who left--Crain and Rauch and Guerrier and Fuentes, the list seems to go on and on--were you ever close with any of them as far as maybe getting them to come back?
RA: We basically told them where we were at and that we'd like to have them back, but that if they were getting three and four-year offers for $3 or $4 million a year, we couldn't compete with that. In essence we appreciate everything they did for us, they were a big part of--for Crain and Guerrier for multiple seasons, we drafted Crain, he came through our system and was with us for six years, and Guerrier we claimed off waivers from Pittsburgh--that's kind of the way we look at it, as Matt Guerrier wasn't one of the top relief pitchers in the game when we claimed him off waivers from Pittsburgh way back when, but he got an opportunity. And Jesse Crain got an opportunity.
Now it's time for somebody else to get those opportunities. Because these guys have gone on to get themselves bigger contracts and set themselves up. For both those guys it was their first crack at it, and we understand, that's the way it goes, it's the business of the game. We're happy for them that they were able to land those deals.
J: Sure. Justin Morneau had a really good workout this morning it sounds like. Have you had a chance to talk to him and how does he look to you?
RA: He looked great. He had a big smile on his face yesterday. Last year, even at the end of the season, he looked like was in a little bit of a fog. He looked like he was really struggling with everything.
Now he looks like he's ready for a fresh start. The biggest thing for him will be to do all those things he's thought about wanting to do again, and all the things he used to do. He just needs to get out there and do them to put his mind at ease, so that he knows this thing is behind him, and that's what we want to do is make sure it's behind him. If there are any recurrences we'll have to deal with it, but what we want to do and what we told him, repeatedly, is that we only want him to go through this once. We don't want any relapses or any of that stuff again, so if we need to address those issues or if we need to cut back, but his doctors seem pretty confident that he's ready to move forward, and so now it's time for him to get out on the field and see how it goes.
J: Assuming everything is alright, is his ETA April 1st?
RA: Yeah. I don't think we're too worried about spring training, but obviously he's going to want to get into games, get his timing back, get at-bats and do all the things that need to be done. If he's ready to go, that's tremendous. If he's not ready until April 15th or May 1st we'll deal with that, but the main thing is to eliminate all doubt and that this thing is in the rear view mirror once and for all.
J: Bringing back Jim Thome was another one of your big moves this off-season. He had the big home run off the White Sox last year, and one off the flag pole in right field, but it didn't really seem like him coming back was the foregone conclusion that I thought it would be. How did negotiations go with him this year?
RA: He had a better offer from another club, but I think what it boiled down to is, for Jim Thome, he's made a lot of money in this game, and he's such a good guy and such a family man that I think he looked at it and talked with his family, and decided that Minnesota is where he wanted to be.
We made what we believe was a fair offer. We believed he wanted to come back, he said as much when all was said and done. But when you go out and you hit 25 home runs and you do some of the things he did for us last year, everybody wants to be compensated.
We explained to him that, bringing him back this year, we want him to do the things we brought him in to do last year.
He exceeded our expectations.
J: I think it's fair to say he exceeded everyone's expectations.
RA: Yeah. I mean last year, we brought him in to be a pinch hitter and an occasional left-handed DH, he'd get some at-bats and stuff but here's the deal--we've got Young, Span, Cuddyer in the outfield, Kubel's our DH, Morneau's at first, this-and-that, we're going to get you at-bats but it's not going to be like being a regular like you've been your entire career.
This year I hope we're able to do that, because that way he'll be healthy and be able to stay healthy throughout the course of the year, and hopefully into the playoffs. I'm not sure that was the case last year. He had his battles with his back and getting stiff, and he was not 100% at the end of the season.
J: How careful does Gardy need to be with that kind of thing? Is that a situation where he needs to talk to Thome on a daily basis to see how he's feeling?
RA: Yeah, and they do. Jim's great about saying "You know what I think I need a couple days" or whatnot, and we want to be in a position where that doesn't alter our lineup at all. When he needs a few days off, okay that's fine, no problem. We'll maybe keep him in the lineup a few games a week, we'll keep him fresh and productive, and hopefully keep him healthy.
J: The free agent market for starting pitchers shook out a bit differently than some people expected as well. I think a lot of people had Pavano pegged as the second-best starting pitcher on the market. Was bringing him back a realistic scenario in your off-season blueprint?
RA: Not at the beginning, I didn't think there was any way. I thought he'd get two, maybe three years at about $10 or $11 million. I didn't think it was unrealistic for him to ask for that. In light of the Ted Lilly deal and some other deals that were made, it's obviously a difficult situation and you can't read what other teams are thinking or whatnot, but with him being a Type-A free agent and the team having to give up a first-round pick, that may have played a role in it.
I know Milwaukee had interest but they were able to acquire Zack Grienke. There's a lot of different scenarios and things that can happen. There were other teams that were interested in him, but his agent basically told us--he wants to come back. If all things are equal, and you guys match his best offer, all things being equal he's coming back to Minnesota. He loves it there. He loves playing for Gardy, he loves Rick Anderson, all those things.
So I think Carl Pavano was a big part of everything we did last year, and even the year before when we acquired him. He's another guy who's made some honey in this game, and I think being on a team that he's comfortable with and comfort with teammates, it all starts to add up to him not being a guy who's chasing the last dollar. He wants to be where he wants to be, where he has a chance to win, and he said as much.
We think we've got a chance to win, and he wanted to be a part of it.
J: Keeping in the rotation, a couple weeks ago it came out that the Twins were fielding offers for Francisco Liriano. How much truth was there in that statement?
RA: (Unsure laughter.) I'm not sure where that came about. The only thing I got out of the whole thing, and I haven't talked to the guy who wrote that, but he was speculating that because we had done a one-year deal that maybe we were looking to trade him. That since we weren't doing a multi-year deal. Well, in this situation we control his contract this year and next year, and y'know, we don't talk about our negotiations or our discussions.
There can be many reasons why you don't consummate a multi-year deal, and sometimes the player doesn't want to, sometimes the club doesn't want to, sometimes you just don't agree on numbers, or whatever. So we're not going to talk about any of our negotiations with that or anything else, but he was a big part of our rotation. He came in in tremendous shape, so...
I know that riled up a lot of people and caused a lot of questions, but we're not talking to anybody right now on Francisco Liriano.
J: Were you ever tempted with any of your arbitration guys to talk about multi-year offers?
RA: You know what, with our payroll where we're at, we're at the far reaches of where we can go and what we can do. I think sometimes you need to take a step back and try and create a little payroll flexibility. There are some guys who are potentially free agents after this year that we may want to try and hang onto, or extend at some point, or bring back or whatever. And what you don't want to do is have decisions taken out of your hands because there's nothing you could do about it, if you just don't have the dollars or whatnot.
So we've tried to maintain some flexibility for 2012 and beyond, and by doing so we didn't do any multi-year contracts this year with the exception of Pavano's two-year deal.
J: Before you did your spending for the off-season and payroll was pushed to its limits, were there other free agents you guys were looking at? Maybe a low-risk, high-reward starting pitcher, or a bat for the bench?
RA: Not too much, to be honest with you. No.
J: (Pause, waiting for Rob to elaborate. He doesn't.) Fair enough. (Laughs.)
RA: (Laughs.)
J: Do you see Delmon Young solidifying a role in the middle of this lineup?
RA: Yeah, we hope that last year was a precursor of things to come for him. It's what we envisioned when we traded for him from Tampa, a guy who could drive in 100 runs. He's always been a good hitter, hitting for a high average. He's never put up a real high on-base percentage numbers because he is a free-swinger and he's not a guy who takes many walks.
But we saw last year that he started to drive the ball more, with the career-high 21 home runs. We think he can build on that, and we're hoping to get another year similar to last year from him.
J: Do you think any of his success last year had to do with him coming into camp 30 pounds lighter?
RA: I don't think it's a huge factor to be honest with you, because he gained some of that weight back during the course of the year. I think it has more to do with--he came into camp in great shape, but he also came in ready to play. He's always gotten off to slow starts, and last year he started to kick it in, maybe in mid-April...
J: I think that's probably where the idea came from. Obviously he was lighter and he had a quick start. You look at the evidence and maybe you come to the wrong conclusion, but that could be where the impression came from.
RA: He definitely was more athletic and got around better at a lighter weight. I think he really struggled with that, because I think he was somewhat miserable. He was hungry all the time, I think he was really going to great lengths to play at that light of weight, and I think as the season wore on and he gained some weight back his production didn't necessarily drop off.
In an ideal world he might play at two-and-a-quarter or something, but I also believe that at a higher weight he can still be productive.
J: And probably happier?
RA: Right, and happier. He came in this spring, and we haven't done the weigh-ins on him yet, but he's a big guy. He's strong. You can tell that he's been doing a lot of weight work that he hasn't in the past.
J: But he's one of those big-bodied guys as well.
RA: He is. And when you take a bigger-bodied guy with a frame like that and you try and make him as light as possible, some things are better and other things might not be as good. Delmon always works hard, there's no concern over that. So I think it might be a different body, but hopefully the same results.
J: Thinking about all the nagging injuries--obviously Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn had things cleaned up, Mauer had his knee and Cuddyer's thumb--is there concern that any of these small things will carry over into the season?
RA: We hope not, we don't think so. Obviously we're going to watch Joe [Nathan]. He's in tremendous shape, he threw a bullpen today and looked terrific. So I'm not sure that Nathan is less than any other year coming into spring training. He is actually in better shape than he ever has been, because for months he wasn't able to throw a baseball so he worked on the rest of his body. He's in unbelieveable shape.
Cuddyer, he had an appendectomy and the thumb deal, and I believe a knee cleanup at the end of the season. But he came in in good shape, he's ready to go. Baker and Blackburn are throwing bullpens.
Anytime you have surgery and you come back and get into the full swing of it, you'll have scar tissue that needs to break away and different little things, so you look for red flags but there are sometimes just small indicators that let you know a guy has to back off a little or whatever. Then he moves past that point.
I don't think we have any concerns right now with those guys. They may skip a turn, or the doctor may say "Let's back off for a minute and let him catch his breath a minute--I don't see any long-term issues here, but it's a little irritated so let's rest it for a bit." But no, we don't see any major red flags with those guys right now.
J: You guys signed a lot of minor league free agents for Rochester to flesh out some depth. Can you pick one sleeper out of that group that might be able to crack the Twins roster this year?
RA: Chuck James. I watched him throw a bullpen, and he's in great shape and he's had some success in the past. He's run into some injuries in the past, but I think those are past him. He had a nice year last year, at double-A and triple-A, and I think he'll give himself a chance to win a spot out of the bullpen. If not, I think he could help us at some point during the year.
J: You've got another wave of minor league starting pitchers that are starting to get closer to the surface again. Alex Wimmers is one of those, and obviously Kyle Gibson. Do you see Gibson getting a chance this year, or would you prefer to see him work out some bugs in triple-A and take a closer look at him in 2012?
RA: We hope that we don't need him in the rotation to start the year, that would mean a few other guys are hurt. So, hopefully he goes down to the minors, gets in a full season, but I also believe that he is very close to being Major League-ready, and if we do need him I think he could help us this year.
Wimmers is obviously a year behind him, hopefully he can take the same path as Gibson and move as quickly. Liam Hendriks is another guy we like a lot, who isn't more than a year or two away from being able to pitch in the big leagues. So those three guys in particular are the guys we hope are moving in that next wave of starters who could help us in the next few years.
J: Moving to position players in the minors, do you think there's anyone who's ready to make an impact on this year's roster?
RA: I think Ben Revere, if we needed an outfielder, could come up and help us. I think he's very close to being Major League-ready. I think Joe Benson probably needs another year. Those are the two guys in the outfield, as well as Rene Tosoni, who just needs to stay healthy for a full year. He could be a corner guy for us in the very near future. Those guys along with, like I talked about, Plouffe and Hughes, their time is probably getting pretty close.
It's hard to envision, because a year ago I'm not sure I told you if Danny Valencia is called upon he's going to come up and hit .300 and play great defense...
J: I don't think you put it quite that way, no...
RA: (Laughs.) So, some guys, they surprise you. They sieze the opportunities. Jeff Manship might establish himself as a guy like Brian Duensing was for us out of the 'pen last year, before we moved him into the rotation. Or like Matt Guerrier was a couple years ago when he was in the middle. So maybe it's Manship, maybe it's Slama, maybe Perkins rejuvenates himself or Neshek regains his form from a few years ago.
There's a lot of maybe's and a lot of possibilities for a lot of different guys. It's all about who's going to stay healthy and who's going to sieze the opportunities.
J: With those six guys who are vying for the starting pitching job, the one unfortunate one who doesn't get slotted into the rotation, does he automatically go to the bullpen?
RA: We could go a couple of different routes. He could go to the bullpen and be ready if we need him to jump back into the rotation, we could move somebody. If the right deal arrises and we can improve our ballclub, we could look at it from that point of view. There are a few different ways we can go about this thing, but those are six guys that if they're all healthy and pitching like they're capable of, it's a great situation to be in. Then it's just a matter of finding those best 12 pitchers possible and where to pitch them and where to use them.
J: In the scenario where you maybe end up moving one of those guys, do you know what you'd be looking for in return?
RA: That's where spring training and some other things would have to play out. At this point the question marks are in the bullpen, and like I said we have a lot of candidates and a lot of options. I don't think we'd trade away one of our starting pitchers for a middle reliever or something. It would have to be something that would make sense for us. We'll let things unfold and develop.
And a trade isn't even the most likely scenario, it's a possible scenario.
J: Sure.
RA: I'm not sure what route we'd go, but I'd think we'd just want to get talent and something equitable back. Maybe, during the course of the spring, something that happens out on the field dictates what you need. We didn't come into our first spring training game last year thinking we'd be looking for a closer. Unfortunately, those things happen though.
J: Who's your third catcher behind Mauer and Drew Butera?
RA: I'm not sure we will carry three catchers to be honest. Matt Tolbert might be our emergency catcher if we needed one, if he's our utility guy. We've got a couple of veteran guys in, in Rene Rivera and Steve Holm, so if we do decide to go with a third catcher I imagine it would be one of those two guys.
J: Alright, I think that pretty much wraps up my serious questions.
RA: Alright!
J: Onto the stupid ones! What's your bet for Gardy's nickname for Nishioka?
RA: I think it's deadlocked: Nishee.
J: Is that really it?
RA: Yeah!
J: I think a lot of people were hoping for Yoshi...but yeah, I think "Nishee" is probably it. Carl Pavano, with or without the 'stache?
RA: He's gotta go with it, he became a legend with it.
J: (Laughs.) Mauer's Head & Shoulders deal. Do you wish it was you?
RA: (Laugh.) Not with my thinning hair. I'd be out as a candidate, and I've got no sideburns...
J: Danny "Hide Your Daughters" Valencia--true or false?
RA: (Laughs.) He's a good-lookin kid with a big future, I'm sure they'd be throwing themselves at him, but I think he has a nice lady already.
J: Alright, I think that's all I have. Rob, seriously, thank you for your time.
RA: No problem.
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Did this, for anyone else, cause a desire to go buy some tickets?
by Codypc21 on Feb 22, 2011 8:05 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
When do single games go on sale?
I keep looking at the main site.
March 19 at 10am for the general public.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
New Twins motto: "Twins baseball: Poor fans can screw themselves!" -BatGirl
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 23, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Great interview!
Really good stuff here. Eased my mind a bit about the upcoming season. :)
It’s especially interesting to hear the organization’s take on some of the minor leaguers, after hearing TT’s take on them during the offseason…
俳句!
I like the part about Delmon being hungry all the time when he was skinnny
I can only image how hungry Mijares is right now.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
by myjah on Feb 22, 2011 8:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Whatnot
Lots of good information and whatnot.
If I had submitted a question, it would have been about their new sabermetrically staffer.
It does seem that the speed thing was as advertised. Their OF is going to get a lot speedier in the years to come. If Nishi and Casilla stick in the IF, they could have Span, Revere, Benson, Casilla, and Nishi making a pretty speedy lineup by late 2012/ early 2013, with Hicks banging down the door.
by AM. on Feb 22, 2011 8:57 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I love reading these
Thanks again, Jesse. We learn a lot of info in these. Not really anything surprising in this one, but it’s nice to hear it all from the Twins view.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Great job Jesse
His honesty is so refreshing. With interviews like this, there’s no need for speculation.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Feb 22, 2011 9:23 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think this might be my favorite TT feature
He is such a good sport and doesn’t seem to hold things back. Was interested to hear they may not go with a third catcher and that the Liriano rumors were vastly overblown. I can live with Nishee. :)
Third Catcher
I found that interesting… I don’t think anyone thinks they will have a third catcher on the big league roster, just who comes up if Butera or Mauer is hurt.
Right, I wrote that question
And the obvious intent was what happens in case of injury, God forbid.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Injury to Butera is no big deal
Injury to Mauer is instant panic
I am more panicked now!
I thought the cupboard was bare before at the catcher position… he completely avoided it – We aren’t carrying 3 catchers – No Kidding? That wasn’t the question… then rambling a couple of veteran catchers we have in our system? Scary… The days of Morales & Ramos are really gone, aren’t they?
Antony didn't avoid anything.
He may have misunderstood what I was asking, because I didn’t really ask what I wanted to know. To have been more clear I should have asked who was next on the depth chart, or who would the first catcher called up from the minors be.
But still, he didn’t avoid it, my question was still answered. In an emergency situation Tolbert might catch, but if they need to call up another catcher his guesses would be one of the vets they’ve brought in.
ok,
he misunderstood the question… I can accept that… I am still extremely nervous that the Twins don’t have a more known commodity to back up Mauer if he were to go down. Maybe that is the case for Atlanta if McCann goes down, or the Giants with Posey, maybe Weiters if he gets going this year… maybe we were just spoiled to have some viable young options at AAA. As it is, it is a scary situation to think about.
They did pretty much jettison their catching depth over the last year, true.
I would have been okay with bringing in Bengie Molina, definitely.
They did pretty much jettison their catching depth over the last year, true.
I would have been okay with bringing in Bengie Molina, definitely.
Something...
Molina, Molina, Russell, Buck… maybe they think Salty is expendable in Boston and, since out of options, maybe becomes a Spring Training casualty?
It will have to be through trade
They should be able to make a deal for a veteran catcher if Mauer gets hurt.
Any time you have to replace a superstar like Joe Mauer you are in trouble
Because of the position he plays that would be like losing your ace pitcher. Even with the greatest depth you will not be able to fully compensate for it.
by twinscrazy_german on Feb 23, 2011 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
right...
without Mauer we should pretty much just forfeit the season anyway.
And before anyone brings up Morneau’s injuries, Morneau is NOT Joe Mauer.
We already lost LNP
This season we would be lucky to break .500.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
New Twins motto: "Twins baseball: Poor fans can screw themselves!" -BatGirl
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 24, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
I thought it was interesting that he made it sound like Thome is the "regular" DH this year.
And Thome has made noises that he’s feeling more prepared for that kind of role this year. I think that’s awesome and sort of find it amazing that we had this HOF-caliber slugger just fall into our lap last year (which isn’t to say the Twins don’t deserve credit for getting him in the first place and bringing him back).
I like the philosophy with the bullpen of finding quality within quantity, hopefully with Nathan, Capps, and Mijares ready to dominate when needed. Was it just me or did he not mention putting the sixth starter in relief? I guess maybe it just wasn’t brought up, although he did talk about a lot of bullpen guys.
I’m content they aren’t looking to trade Liriano for now, but I’m not entirely convinced that there weren’t some Twins FO shenanigans at work in the reportage. I get that the FO can’t be wide open about all that stuff, but he should be careful about throwing Joe C. under the bus there unless it really was just a creation of his imagination (along with the Pelissero report). He’s a reporter. His reputation is his stock in trade.
Awesome job Jesse. Good questions and interesting insight into the Twins org.
Appreciate Thome
Sounds like he gave up $1M to play here. I know he’s made money but I assume the other team was pretty good too (Tampa?).
He gave up $1 M because he'd rather be here
Not that I don’t appreciate him, but sometimes there are other things that actually make it more valuable to be here…
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
Could of been Baltimore or Cleveland
where it all started ya or Tampa maybe……
Toronto? Oakland before Hideki? interesting stuff
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 23, 2011 4:29 AM EST up reply actions
Thome said it was the Rangers
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Nice
He turned down the defending AL champs to play with the Twins for less money.
For all the talk that the "Twins have no clubhouse leaders"
Or that Mauer should wreck the place and tell Gardy what’s what, morale must be pretty good if people are willing to take a pay cut to stay with them.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
New Twins motto: "Twins baseball: Poor fans can screw themselves!" -BatGirl
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 23, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
It sounded more like they envision his role to be the one they pegged him for last year to me?
by twinscrazy_german on Feb 23, 2011 4:03 AM EST up reply actions
For clarification:
They want to use Thome this year as they intended to use him last year. They’d like to do that to enable him to stay as fresh as possible, since it sounds like after all that use in the second half he wasn’t 100% at the end of the season. We’ll still see him a few times a week, but it looks like he won’t be the full-time DH over Kubel.
My bad. I just didn't read it closely enough. I saw:
“last year…we’re going to get you at-bats but it’s not going to be like being a regular like you’ve been your entire career. This year I hope we’re able to do that…”
I apparently ignored the rest.
Wasn't fresh?
Thome hit .313 / .448 / .710 after the all-star break, .298 / .404 / .723 in August and .362 / .508 / .830 in Sept/Oct. What will he hit this year if keep him fresh?
I'm not really going to argue with that.
Ultimately Antony’s point was that Thome wasn’t healthy at the end of the year, and he does deal with recurring back issues. If he can be used more sparingly, he’ll have a better chance of staying healthy all year.
What Antony didn't say
Is that Thome got banged up when Ullger sent him around third when the cut-off man already had the ball. Of course, Jimmers is going to try to knock the ball out. But the collision hurt him. He missed the last six games of the year and was not 100% against the Yankees. It was the dumbest thing Ullger did all year, which is saying something, because he sent a lot of runners with zero chance of scoring.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
So he doesn't really need more rest
He just needs to ignore Scott Ullger
That's what I thought, too.
But MLB.com still lists him as the third base coach…and so I thought that maybe it was just a dream.
I don't know if it was Gardy
If I was a member of the FO, I would have had some words for Gardy if he insisted on keeping Ullger in that role, especially when it harmed our playoff chances, and likely harmed our chances of signing Thome. I doubt we sign Thome if they hadn’t made the change.
It’s similar to what happened when they moved Ullger from hitting coach to 3B. He failed as a hitting coach. Gardy won’t fire him. So the FO insisted he give Ullger a new role.
He is now officially bench coach with Liddle at 3B. It’s another reason for optimism.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Even so
You would never hear Antony say that or anyone else on the Twins team. They deal with those things quietly and it is better that way.
by twinscrazy_german on Feb 23, 2011 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
This sure beats voting
for the 50th best Twins prospect over the last 10 days.
My take: The Twins only gave out one multi-year contract this year, as Anthony says, to Pavano — a reasonably team-friendly deal. And, they are camping out, looking at their outfield and seeing what they can make happen starting in 2012. That means, as many have speculated, that Kubel and/or Cuddyer, they either make their own future or they hit the market next year. And if the Twins aren’t in it in July, which would be a huge surprise, then it’s Betsie bar the door as far as moving some of the expiring pieces goes, and that includes Nathan and Capps.
Didn't the Twins sign Nishioka for three years?
Does it not count because he’s Japanese?
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
I think the comment was meant to include only established players
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also weird because he's not a free agent at the end.
Kind of like a big major league contract coming out of the draft, more than a FA acquisition.
Is that true?
Some Japanese player contracts have been negotiated to give the player free agent rights before 6 years.
I assumed there was no team control
Seems like this wasn’t a minor league deal. Naturally, I don’t think they could do something like send him to the minors without going through waivers. Just doesn’t seem like that sort of thing.
"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez
He should have options available
I don’t know why they would give that up.
Great interview
I like the bullpen philosophy. It will sort itself out by June is my guess.
This just makes me wonder what's wrong with the mainstream media.
In no way is this a dig at blogs the top sites I visit for Twins news are this one first because generally if there’s another good article out there someone fanshots it. Sethspeaks, Aarongleeman, mlbtraderumors in that order and the startribune but mostly for twinscentric articles.
The point being I’m kind of shocked that Joe C or LEN3 don’t get a good interview like this more often. I enjoy their pieces but this is just so interesting and RA is a terrific straight shooter. I love that he just says in the Liriano questions well we don’t talk about the details of our negotiations. I think Cmath said it best when he said it was refreshing. It didn’t feel like any questions were dodged or avoided. Just answered and no excuses made.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
+1
Nothing against them, but this one interview makes them look bad.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm ok with this making us look good,
but I’m not really too interested in being compared to the Strib’s beat writers. Those guys get to watch this team, in person, on a daily basis—and teams have become a little wary of opening up too much to their traditional media sources. I feel like we might be in a little bit of a special situation, because interviews like this are a special event for us. We get six digits worth of people coming by here every month, but I still wouldn’t call us mainstream (at least not in a traditional sense), and I think that might do us some favors. Not necessarily saying that Rob has told us anything that he wouldn’t have told somebody else, but if I had the access of LEN III or Joe C and tried to sit down once or twice a month with a front office guy to get some information I really doubt that those Q&As would be as insightful as this one was.
I’m not trying to downplay how good this interview was, because I’m very very happy with it, and I think we’ve developed a pretty decent relationship with Rob. I just think it’s important to note that this kind of access, which I don’t push to have more than once or twice a year, does have its advantages, too. And I also like doing it at this time of year, because it’s a time of certainty in terms of personnel, contracts, etc.
Audience helps.
The Q&A can be tailored to knowledgeable Twins enthusiasts rather than the average Strib reader. Makes for a better interview.
You are truly awesome Jesse
I loved reading it and it definitely gives some pretty good insight on the thinking of the organization!
On a side note: I would spell it Nishi, not Nishee, because for me those sound the same.
by twinscrazy_german on Feb 23, 2011 4:06 AM EST reply actions
AWESOME JOB jESSE AND oTHER CONTRIBUTORS
Great read -awesome!
Can’t wait what bullpen decisions are going to be made this Spring Training….
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 23, 2011 4:31 AM EST reply actions
Rob Anthony may not be much of a sabermatician but I like the guy
Listening to him on La Velles’s podcasts and stuff He seems like he is committed to Minnesota for the long-term as well as the short term…. thats the type of guy I want yeah
go Rob
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 23, 2011 4:32 AM EST up reply actions
*Antony
I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 23, 2011 4:33 AM EST reply actions
Great Read
Great read, Jesse and crew. Thanks to all you guys for putting this together.
Fabulous interview, Jesse
Eat your hearts out, startribune bloggers!
This must have been fun to do Jesse...
…great post, thanks!!!
Speech to text has come a long way
There’s always clean-up. But you don’t have to type every word anymore.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hello all
Yankees fan, here. My best bud lives in Minneapolis. Anyway, I was just wanting to get some of your thoughts on an issue I have with the Twins handling of Mauer and Morneau, maybe it’s already been discussed. Why won’t the Twins move Mauer to 1st and have Morneau DH full time to lengthen/save both of their careers? With the health issues they have both had, it makes sense to me.
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
Defense
Mauer is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Morneau is one of the best defensive first basemen in baseball. ALso, who’s going to catch if Mauer moves to first? Where will Kubel or Thome play if Morneau moves to DH?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I know Mauer
is one of the best behind the plate, but, to me, keeping him healthy and keeping his bat in the lineup should be the priority. A decent fielding catcher can be had at a reasonable price.
I think the move should be made after the ‘11 season, for sure. Thome isn’t signed for next season, is he?
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
The issue with that
is that you can find a decent-hitting player at any position more easily than you can find a decent-hitting catcher. That’s one of the reasons Mauer is so valuable—he’s an historically elite player at his position in terms of offense.
If him playing catcher at some point starts keeping him out of the lineup and puts his career in jeopardy, then of course they’ll move him. But that’s not an issue. He can still start 120 games a year behind the plate, and appear in 140-145 games a year, without problems. Until that stops happening, this is a non-issue.
by Jesse on Feb 23, 2011 1:42 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
+1 as well from me, though I don't normally do that
What makes Mauer so valuable is that he’s doing what he’s doing as a catcher. Move him to 3B and his accomplishments are less impressive.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Well...
I know Mauer is one of the best behind the plate, but, to me, keeping him healthy and keeping his bat in the lineup should be the priority. A decent fielding catcher can be had at a reasonable price.
Here’s the problem with that: Good-hitting DHs and 1Bs are a cheap commodity. The Twins signed Jim Thome last year for a million bucks. Vlad Guerrero was picked up on the cheap each of the last two years, and Jermaine Dye hasn’t found a job for two years despite hitting 27 homers the last year he played.
In your scenario, the Twins have Mauer at first, Morneau at DH, and no offense at catcher. Meanwhile, if they leave them in place, they have Mauer catching, Morneau at first, and can cheaply fill the DH role with a scrap-heap veteran or excess outfielder (they have a bunch of those right now) who will produce far, far more offense than random good-fielding catcher, and likely for not much more cost. On top of that, Mauer and Morneau are both excellent fielders, so you’re not gaining anything defensively with your scenario, either.
Another point – Mauer’s simply not a great hitter as a first baseman. He’s the best-hitting catcher in baseball, but he’s lucky if he ranks as one of the top ten best-hitting first basemen, especially if he doesn’t have another year like 2009. Paying $23M/year for a first baseman with doubles power is a pretty poor investment. The fact that Mauer is a catcher is a large part of his value – if the Twins intended to move him away from that position in the near future, they wouldn’t have given him that big a contract.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
where is this coming from?
Baseball America’s 2014 Projected Lineup has Sano at 1B and Morneau at DH. There is absolutely no validity in this at all! Morneau has worked himself into a very good 1B. If Morneau is with the Twins past 2013 he will be the 1B here. If Mauer is moved from his Catching position I can see it being to 3B or to a corner OF spot. It makes no sense to me to have a viable defensive player being a teams DH. Does it to anyone else?
Ok, thanks.
If it were possible, wouldn’t he be more valuable at SS? (assuming he can play adequate D)
He's huge
Most scouts think he’ll be at least as big as Alex Rodriguez when he grows up. He’s only 17 and he’s already the size of Luke Hughes. By the time he’s 22, who knows? Those guys rarely can play well in the middle.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
His hitting is also WAY ahead of his glove
It is doubtful they’ll want to keep him in the minors long enough to make a major league shortstop out of him.
I haven't really heard a lot.
Everything just says amazing prospect and slam dunk mlb player. I had been thinking that it was going to be awesome to have a hot bat at SS. This is a real downer. :(
Hot bats at 3B are really valuable
Contrary to conventional wisdom 3B is not a hitter-first position. It’s equivalent to CF defensively but there are fewer LH hitters at 3B than CF. If he can stick at 3B for a few years they will have a very valuable player.
To sort of add to what others have said
Sano has played 36 games at third base and 18 games at SS so far. It seems like they may already be leaning him towards 3B.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
I agree with Cmath.
There’s really no reason to do either of those things. If playing first base shortens your career, that’s the first I’ve ever heard of it.
Catcher, however, is a very demanding defensive position. But Gardy will give Mauer his days off, and will give him plenty of opportunities to stay in the lineup as a DH from time to time as well. When Mauer gets moved from behind the plate, and it will happen eventually, it will be when he’s either A) in his 30s, or B) injuries force that move to be made. It’s still a ways off, and not really worth speculating over why it hasn’t happened yet.
Morneau's injuries haven't come from defense...
…yes he may get a bit dinged up, but his major injuries (two concussions) came from getting beaned in Seattle several years ago and last year getting a knee in the head sliding into first.
Understood
But one throw up the line with Morneau having to cross into the path of an oncoming baserunner and…Plus, his defense may actually suffer for fear of further injury in a case like this.
I bet it's good to be playing again, huh?
It is an odd way to get a concussion, because so many guys try to break up a play and don't get a concussion from it
but I don’t think that it’s going to have too much of an effect on him long-term. He may be iffy in the beginning, but it’s not his first concussion. Getting hit in the head by a fastball in 2005 hasn’t stopped him from stepping into the batters box since then.
There will be the initial worry, I’m sure, but I think he’ll get past that. Blackburn was hit in the face in 2008 by a line drive back at him. He flinched every once and awhile when a ball was hit, but that didn’t last too many games after it happened.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
The two concussions are related
They both occurred at the left temple, the weakest part of the skull. It might mean he turns his head to the right rather than the left when he slides into second. I don’t expect any other lingering effects.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Wouldn't it be the right temple?
He bats left so his right temple is facing the pitcher. I missed the game where he got the concussion this year, so I’ll take your word that it was the same. I haven’t watched many replays of his concussion from last year.
Anyway, I get your point.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Sorry, my mistake, it was the right temple
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Not a problem
I was just imagining it in my head and knew that couldn’t work, at least the one in the batters box couldn’t.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Pure speculation, but wonder if contract insurance has something to do with it.
I don’t even know if they have it on Mauer, but if they do, it might mean they’re more willing to roll the dice.
It’s also just a pretty huge team downgrade to move him to first. He goes from being about the best all-around catcher in history to just a pretty good first baseman. Morneau is also a really good defender, so moving him to DH doesn’t make a ton of sense when he’s about as protected as anyone is at first.
And Mauer likes playing catcher. All the other positions are sort of boring and don’t get to touch the ball very much.
I would assume all of the big contracts are insured
If Nathan’s was, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Morneau and Mauer are….maybe even Cuddyer. I don’t know for sure though, but I think it would be safe to assume so.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Nearly all...
professional contracts are guaranteed… In fact the only one’s that aren’t are the ones that insurace companies won’t touch. In addition, during the negotiation process this comes into play. Injury historys don’t just bring down a players value because their value is dimished due to the potential loss of playing time and quality of play but there are thresholds that insurance companies are willing to insure up to and matrices that determine the cost for insuring these “higher risk” players.
Players too take out insurance on themselves for future earnings lost due to injury. Because teams don’t pay players that get hurt “on the job” in years beyond their current contract, players take out insurance to get paid on those years in case they do get hurt.
Good interview, Jesse
Unfortunately some of Antony’s responses only deepened my already grave doubts about the Twins’ front office’s “thinking”, but you did a great job.
So lemme see if I understand this. $5.5-$6 million for a proven commodity like Hardy, one who came on incredibly strong in the second half of last year once he got over the injury hump (and whose defense is more valuable than Hudson’s, who gets praised on accounta the vitally important past-Gold-Gloves-won metric), that’s too much money, but $3.08 + 1/3 of the $5.33 millino bid (i.e. $1.78 per year, per cot’s contracts) = $4.86 million per year for three years, that’s viable. Um. That’s a million dollars saved (and two more years locked in to a riskier commodity). One million. He is just blowing smoke up your ass suggesting this was about anything other than Professor Ron F%cking Gardenhire (1) wanting players that fit into his absurd, counterproductive system of positional stereotypes and (2) having no clue how to evaluate the value of his players’ performances.
Antony’s response regarding Dusty Hughes —
What they’d do is they’d bring him in every time, about the sixth or seventh inning when we had a bunch of lefties coming up, and all he did was get Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Thome out with regularity. And those guys do a pretty good job against left-handers.
He was tough on us. He had a .260 batting average against lefties, which isn’t dominant, but this guy knows how to pitch. He can get lefties and righties out. We just think he’s a good fit for a left-handed guy who might be able to pitch for an inning or two if you need him to.
— is pretty blatantly a bunch of self-contradictory nonsense. Now it it does so happen that Hughes career OPS v LH is a pretty good .656 due wholly to LH’s having no power against him, but it worries me to no end that this decision, at least from his perspective (assuming he’s telling Jesse the whole truth) has to do with getting LH bats out, when in fact their OBP is .341 (vs. .362 v. RH bats). It worries me to no end that, if we take what he says at face value, this was a move pretty much based on anecdote (i.e. his performance against the Twins’ LH last season). It is similarly troublesome that the guy adduces as evidence a number he immediately realizes does nothing to make his point and drops in favor of “he knows how to pitch.”
My point above has nothing to do with the merits of acquiring Hughes, it has to do with the methods of the Twins F.O. and the sort of things that can be expected from such a method going forward. I wonder if, 50 years from now, people will write books about the ridiculous inefficiencies in the market for selection of baseball executives in the early 21st century.
slow down there
I wouldn’t take an off-the-cuff response about a third-tier garbage time reliever pickup as too terribly indicative of the way the FO approaches player evaluation. Personally, I took that response as more of a “hey, this guy has had some success against us in the past and we have an opening for a LH arm out of the pen — yeah, we figured we’d give him a shot” than whatever Gardenhire conspiracy you’ve constructed in your mind.
My comments regarding the Hughes pickup
had nothing to do with any Gardenhire “conspiracy,” nor with Gardenhire at all. They have to do with a front office guy having nothing substantive to point to with regard to a pick-up - to the contrary - when in fact that data is readily available. It furthers my belief that the Twins F.O. frequently does things for dumb reasons. As I said, nothing wrong with the pickup itself.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
When a guy dominates your team for 10 games in the previous year, you have a rpetty good scouting report on him
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
57 plate appearances.
Not a valid basis for analysis in general. Oh look, he had a .227 BABIP on those. End of story.
Again, though, he seems like a meh-ok LOOGY, so whatever.
Just aghast at the thinking, that’s all.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
It says as much about their opinion of Delaney as Hughes
I don’t think they have a lot of expectations for Hughes. But they thought he’d be better than Delaney. I can’t disagree with that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That's fine. I'm not going to spend much time arguing the point.
I would’ve liked to see Delaney get a shot, but I by no means think they let a world-beater walk.
Again again again: my issue is with and my original point regarded only the way the Front Office evaluates talent, based on their own words.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
That's a matter of your interpretation
I don’t think that was the only way they evaluated him. That might have sparked their interest, but don’t accuse them of being stupid by not checking his stats. In particular in ERA under 4 for a major league team vs an ERA just under 5 for a AAA team.
I know, I know, when you look at xFIP and K/9 the numbers are reversed. If that’s what you’re complaining about, I see your point.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yikes.
I hadn’t even looked at it that far – I wasn’t talking about the move per se, remember – but as you probably know that (i.e. xFIP, K%) is the sort of stuff I look at. Aaaaaand it’s not so good, as you say. Oh well. The F.O.’s seeming continued failure to understand/care about/apply 5-10 year old SABR findings is just baffling.
BTW I don’t doubt they looked at other numbers beyond what Antony mentioned. Just like I don’t doubt future costs factored in the Hardy move to some extent. HOWEVER. All we know is what they tell us, and what they tell us speaks ill of them, unfortunately. Antony could have talked long term costs re: Hardy. But he talked speed and he talked about a marginal difference between Nishioka’s cost and Hardy’s (as if Casilla or espeically Nishioka is actually a true shortstop, anyway). He could’ve talked about Hughes suppressing power in LHB, but he bizarrely talked about him NOT suppressing BA (except against Mauer and Morneau and Kubel or whomever). I have no confidence in them, that’s all.
BTW, peeking at things on fangraphs, his xFIP at all levels trails his FIP substantially, but assuming he’s been used to some extent as a LOOGY, this (i.e. his tastier FIP/ERA) may be relatively sustainable since he appears to consistently suppress LH power and this is one of the ways LH pitchers (and RH sidearmers) can potentially affect their “uncontrollable” HR/FB rates. Unfortunately minorleaguesplits is gone, so I dunno for sure. I definitely don’t want him facing a RH hitter except come mop-up time.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't it make more sense to look at how he did against the rest of the league, than vs. the Twins?
Dusty Hughes
2010 (.BAA/ OB%A/ SlgA/ OPSA)
vs Twins (.209/ .288/ .279/ .568)
vs Rest of the MLB (.289/ .345/ .405/ .750)
I still say it is a good signing. I like Hughes… I think he can be tough.
A couple of things.
First, in regards to Hughes, I wouldn’t get too wound up about it. He’s replacing Delaney, whose sexy minor league strikeout numbers are just minor league strikeout numbers. Hughes, at the very least, has some Major League experience. But I’m not even concerned about that. Hughes will be lucky to crack the bullpen, and I’m not going to get wound up about the philosophy of the organization’s front office over that level of guy.
Second, your analysis of the Nishioka-Hardy monetary issue is incomplete. For one thing, you can’t include the posting fee in the conversation. It doesn’t count towards payroll. It comes from a pool of money that the organization has committed to signing international talent. Then, if you have an issue with the Twins paying $3 million per year for three years for Nishioka, then you also need to include what the Twins may have had to pay Hardy not just this year, but next year. And the year after that if they had instead decided to offer him a three-year deal this winter or a two-year deal after next winter. To help you out, Hardy (if healthy) is going to command $20 – $24 million from 2011 – 2013. Suddenly the $3 million per season for Nishioka doesn’t look so bad, especially considering A) who the Twins have (or don’t have) coming up in the minors in the middle infield over the next three or four years, and B) who would be on the free agent market this year and next year.
And this is coming from a guy who, all winter, wanted Hardy to come back to Minnesota. I did, I wanted him back. But there are tradeoffs under a limited payroll.
I’m not saying Minnesota’s off-season was perfect, because it wasn’t. But I think you’re selling the FO short in your comparison of the Hardy-Nishioka contracts.
Fungible
Those pools of money are arbitrary paper constructs — there’s nothing extrinsic preventing shifts from one to the other, is there? $5 million less in the “international signing bonuses” pool this year could easily be $5 million (plus interest) more in the “contracts” pool over the next three.
Your point regarding the potential future cost of Hardy is understood and well taken, but I was comparing and believe it is valid to compare this year’s expenditures because that’s exactly what Antony did in his analysis. Given the weakness of that argument (not as much saved as he implied), it seems to me very likely that he said what he said because he was trying to formulate an ad hoc justification for what was really — decisively — going on: Gardenhire wants to PERCEIVE that he has Speedy Type players he can send on what will all too frequently be sub-optimal base stealing missions multiple times per games, and Gardenhire got what he wanted. If the main or decisive factor was actually long-term expenditures, why not at least adduce that?
Regarding Hughes, I (apparently wrongly, my bad) thought I wasn’t discussing the merits of the move, with which I have minimal problem — maybe a bit more with the fact that it came at Delaney’s expense, but whatever. The only issue I was raising was with Antony’s discussion of the move and what we can infer from that (taken at face value) regarding Front Office decision-making.
BTW, I think it’s entirely possible Hardy goes great shakes and ends up being a shade more expensive than the 14-18 million you’re projecting for 2012-2013, so again, I’m not saying it’s not correct to look at future costs in the abstract, I’m just questioning the validity to what Antony said on its own merits, especially in light of the (I believe decisive) much-publicized red-faced buffoon’s demand for Speedy Types.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is a real concern:
“Gardenhire wants to PERCEIVE that he has Speedy Type players he can send on what will all too frequently be sub-optimal base stealing missions multiple times per games, and Gardenhire got what he wanted.”
Gardy no like Hardy
At the beginning of the season Gardy loved Hardy… by mid – season his lack of speed & his inability to stay healthy seemed to drive him crazy. Being able to sign Yoshi & get rid of Harris’ (more specifically his contract) was enough for me.
This off-season really illustrates the impact of Mauer’s contract. $35M in contracts came off the books because of Hardy, Harris, Punto, Hudson, Condrey, Guerrier, Crain & Fuentes moving on. Yet our payroll is up $5.5M from last year.
Baseball-Reference has a great chart on this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2010-roster.shtml
The truth is the Twins went on the cheap this off-season, there is no doubt about it. When Jesse asked if there were any low-risk, high-reward guys they considered, he just flat out answered “No”. That tells me their only mission this off-season was to find more money and find dollars to cut. The exception to that was Pavano who they thought would get $11M and he accepted their offer of $8.5M per. But if you think about it, with his $7M coming off the books too a $1.5M raise was getting him on the cheap as well. Might as well lump Thome in that group too….
Yup
We all knew 2011 would be the toughest year because of the Cuddyer and Nathan contracts. They’ll have more payroll flexibility after this year. Next offseason won’t include as much penny pinching.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You know...
This is a great point. I hadn’t connected all the dots, and granted they’d have had to eat Harris’s contract (while I don’t believe he’s an irretrievably lost cause in general, he probably is here thanks once again to Gardenhire) and pay the million extra to keep Hardy and forego Nishioka, but come 2012 Nathan and Cuddyer would more than pay for paying to keep Hardy here should he continue to play elite defense and post an .800 OPS. Obviously that money will hopefully go towards other fun things, too, given that they did what they did, but it would’ve greatly mitigated the issue of paying Hardy big money for a multi-year deal in 2012 and beyond.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I thought they should sign Hardy long term
It sounds like durability was more of an issue there than money. But the money sure helps this year. And, if you’re not going to keep him long term, it makes sense to try to develop the infield of the future now, rather than having another transition year. It’s a risk, of course. But so is keeping Hardy.
BTW, he’s not an .800 OPS player. In six seasons in the MLB, he’s cracked .800 once, and came close another time in that bandbox in Milwaukee. Otherwise, he’s a .700 OPS guy, which is still a good hitting shortstop. Just not elite, especially not in Target Field. He is an elite defender, however.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm NOT saying...
…you can just pencil it in without any regression, but second half of last year, after getting over the immediate injury and his nagging shit and making widely-reported mechanical adjustments, Hardy OPS’d .805.
2011 is Hardy’s age 28 season, so he should be peaking offensively. If he stays healthy I think he’s a lock to OPS .750 over the next few seasons and could crack .800 at least once.
However, my point above was that they’ll be saving enough to pay him EVEN IF he posts an .800 OPS, which is, as I said, a realistic possibility if not a probability.
by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2011 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
Is he elite or just great???
just kidding, from another post….
JJ has the potential to be an .800 OPS guy if he can just show some patience. He seems to me to be able to be a consistent .270/.345/.460/.805 if he can just draw some walks and stay healthy.
The one flaw in his game is his speed. A guy like him doesn’t have the type of incentive to draw walks since he is a borderline station-to-station guy. Lack of speed negates a need to draw walks and encourages aggressiveness and development of power so maybe I am wrong… maybe he should be a .315 OBP guy and try to improve his slugging to closer to .490….
He has the skill to do the former but is probably encouraged to do the latter.
.
CMath...Can't recall where I saw it...
…but I read somewhere last fall about something Gardy said about Hardy. When I saw it, said to the bride…Hardy will never again play for the Twins. Don’t know how or whay Gardy got that burr under his saddle, but it was there and it was named Hardy.
Great Read Jesse
Throughly enjoyed this reading. The Twins Organization from top to bottom is filled with class. Last spring I was at a game in Sarasota about two hours early and Bill Smith, Terry Ryan, Rob Anthony, and Sal Butera were in the stands sitting by themselves. I walked up and asked if I could take a photo. Sal took one of us. But I was able to sit there awhile at watch BP with these guys just talking about certain players and their swing. It was a great experience.
That would be awesome.
And you didn’t have to be a “fly on the wall.”
I sure hope Terry Ryan is taking Deron Johnson under his wing when he’s not busy with first year player draft duties. If Ryan decides to have a more limited role with the Twins in the future, it would be a nice comfort knowing we have someone in our system with an elite eye for players. Can never have too many of those.

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