Too Late for a Trade?

by haroldwiggins on Feb 7, 2011 11:53 PM EST

The Twins have sat pretty still this offseason. Is it finally time to take a stand?

The clamor for a right handed bat has been regarded, along with the bullpen (unnecessarily), as a spot we will surely need help with. Alexi Casilla has yet to prove himself and I am all for giving the man another shot to claim a starting spot on the daily roster, and I am much more thankful it will be Casilla on Opening Day at whichever position than LNP. What I am wondering is if it would make sense to put him down for a few more home runs (on the road of course).

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/michael-young-requests-trade.html

He doesn't like his situation in Texas, and wants to play every day. Well this could be the perfect chance to get some power in there, and he could platoon DH and then give Yoshi and Casilla breaks.

I am extremely tired this evening and just saw that the Twins were on the list. What do you fellow fans think? Is it even worth perusing the Michael Young display, or is it bad news? Also, if a trade were to be made what is fair compensation. He comes in with a bloated contract, and since this could now seem like a nice salary dump for the Beltre loaded Rangers, do you think he's a trade cheap candidate.

**Update: It appears the main trade would be a salary swap for two underachieving (for what they're being paid, not ability) RH bats. It would help to get Cuddyer's salary off the books, but it would also mean taking on Young's bigger contract. The Rangers would be wise to trade him, but I think there is no reason to swap a guy who's off the books after this year for a guy who will continue to cost us in the future.

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Is Young Worth it?

The Twins payroll is basically set at where it is right now. We have been told there would be no increases. In order to acqiure Young we would have to trade Kubel or Cuddyer, plus get some salary relief. Also, we would require salary relief for the 2 subsequent years on his contract. Young would look nice in our batting order and help our heavy left handed hitting lineup. But trading Kubel or Cuddyer minimizes any real gain. So why take the chance on ripping team unity apart. The only real chance to gain anything is if we could acquire Young and turnaround and trade him to the Angels for whatever gain we think we could accomplish. Which would be a very risky proposition.

by rico7961 on Feb 8, 2011 12:35 AM EST reply actions

Well

If the Rangers would eat about 20 mil, take Cuddy and a low level prospect, I would wholeheartedly support that deal, otherwise, no thanks… too spendy. The reason to even consider this is that MY could easily play short or second, and be a serious threat in the lineup. 3 yrs at about 9 mil per would be a better deal than Hardy, as MY is a very good infielder (last played SS regularly in 2008 with fine numbers), is a good attitude guy who has just grown tired of the Rangers jerking hm around. He could easily play in the field every day, either up the middle, or an insurance policy for Morneau or if Danny V has a sophomore slump. Definitely worth concidering….if the price is right.

but the right pony can be like a friend with benefits...-montanatwinsfan 2/2/11

by carlpavanosmoustache on Feb 8, 2011 1:45 AM EST reply actions

Young would be a bad investment if we sent them nothing

He’s owed an appalling $48 million over the next four years, plus an additional $15 million in deferred dollars. He is on the wrong side of 33. He’s not particularly good at any position. Both FanGraphs and B-Ref rate his defense as well below average at third base. It gets worse in the middle infield.

Most of his perceived value is in his batting average. His OPS+ has been a bit of a roller coaster ride: Some years, he’s below average (01, 02, 03, 08), most years he’s slightly above average (04, 06, 07, 09) and he’s had two career years (06, 10). And he plays in the most hitters’ friendly park in the AL. He projects as slightly above average offensively in that park, while being well below average on defense. Adjusting for the park, he’s about average offensively.

He’s not nearly as good as Danny V. at third base offensively or especially defensively. He’s also six years older than Danny and $60 million more expensive over the next four years. By all accounts, Young produced less value for the Rangers over a whole season than Valencia had for half a season. And Young did it in the most hitter-friendly park while Valencia did it in the most pitcher-friendly park in the league.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 9:51 AM EST reply actions

Valencia did it in Safeco?

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

OK, Safeco is slightly tougher on hitters than TF, touche

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 10:36 AM EST up reply actions

Is TF that much of a ptichers park?

I know it was the toughest place to hit it out in 2010, but I thought it was around average for runs scored.

by Stefa on Feb 8, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, it was second in the AL in suppressing runs

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

GREAT point

He projects as slightly above average offensively in that park, while being well below average on defense. Adjusting for the park, he’s about average offensively.

Young’s career road splits: .279/.322/.411

It should be federal law that all articles mentioning the great stats of Texas Rangers include their road splits, so we can all realize that we should believe absolutely none of it. Everyone remembers to do this for Colorado, but people seem to forget about it with the Rangers.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Feb 8, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

I guess it should also be a federal law that in all articles mentioning Target Field

Last years Home/Away ERA from our starters
Liriano
Home- 3.11
Away-4.25

Baker
Home- 3.86
Away-5.15

Blackburn
Home-3.71
Away-7.57

Pavano
Home- 3.71
Away-3.77

Slowey
Home-3.63
Away-5.63

If you are going to take away from players who play in offensive ball parks you have to take away from pitchers who play in pitching ball parks. Cant have it both ways. Arlington does inflate his stats, no question about that, but he is still an above average player.

by cmb0252 on Feb 8, 2011 3:19 PM EST up reply actions

I'm totally fine with that

I’d note, though, that we rarely discuss just ERA when having these discussions – we often focus more on (supposedly) less luck-dependent stats like FIP and xFIP. xFIP, in particular, attempts to remove the home field complication by using a pitcher’s fly ball rate as a factor instead of home run rate. I would assume that players’ K, BB, and fly ball rates stay somewhat consistent between home and road games, although I don’t really know whether that’s the case.

I’ll agree that Young is still an above-average player, but it’s not all that clear how much above average he’d be if he didn’t play in the most offense-friendly park in the American League. Last year he hit 16 home runs at home and five on the road.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Feb 8, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

The Twins are NOT on his no-trade list

“eight teams which are not on Young’s no trade list: Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels and Padres.”

Young for Cuddyer is obviously the starting point. Young can provide more positional flexiblity with the same bat. That would mean you get Young for 3 years $36M which still strikes me as too rich for the Twins. Maybe if they take Blackburn and Texas throws in a pitching prospect (Justin Grimm?). That would get the expenditure for Michael Young down to 3 years $22.75M which is a reasonable deal.

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 10:12 AM EST reply actions

ehhh

I’m pondering this

I like what you have to say but C-Math makes some bold statements

I don’t know what to do with Michael Young anymore.

I called it - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!

"Matt Millen ran Barry Sanders out of town he Drove the Lions into the ground
and now he acts as if he is a know it all NFL analyst" -favre

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 8, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions

I don't know where he gets $60M over 4 years

Young only has a 3 year deal remaining at $48M.

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 10:28 AM EST up reply actions

Here is the source

From Cots:

09-13:$16M annually (total of $15M deferred)

$16M X 3
= $48M
+ $15 M in deferred dollars
= $63M obligation from 2011-2013

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

The Rangers are on the hook for the deferred salary

That’s for seasons he already played. Nobody picks up previous season deferred salary in a trade.

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Well, that's not clear from Cots

But I’ll take your word for it. Still $48 million for a middling infielder from ages 33-36 seems like an incredible waste of money to me. It would tie our hands when we need the money the most.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

It would take a salary dump for the Twins (Cuddyer) and a separate trade of value for Blackburn to make sense.

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

That dump would only help for this year

It’s 2012-2013 that I’m more worried about.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions

2 years $20M

Not terrible

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Huh? that's 2 years and $32 million by my Minnesota math

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Minus Blackburn's salary

Yes, Blackburn is getting paid $10M in 2012-13

by DJL44 on Feb 8, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

Still terrible

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

It still doesn't make sense

Too much money and for a guy they don’t really need. Why not keep Cuddyer and use the $$$ elsewhere.

by Stefa on Feb 8, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions

I don't believe that's how the deferred money works

I believe the “$15M deferred” means that $15M of the $80M total in the contract is deferred, so they’re only paying him $13M/year up front with the rest coming later. Their listing of the contract as “5 years/$80M” seems to back that interpretation up as well.

Either way, that’s a boatload of money for Michael Young.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Feb 8, 2011 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think either Blackburn's or Cuddyer's contracts are huge thorns in our side.

I have trouble seeing Young as anything but a very modest improvement on Cuddyer at wildly greater expense. Nor does salary-dumping Blackburn get me too excited. It’s not a great contract, but I’m not sure it’s below-value. If he eats innings at a sub-5.00 ERA it’s just fine. It’s two guys who are maybe slightly overpaid for one guy who’s massively overpaid.

by Luke in MN on Feb 8, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions