Wednesday Roundup

by Bobomojo on Mar 23, 2011 10:14 AM EDT in News

As noted yesterday, Ron Gardenhire announced that Scott Baker will begin the season in the rotation, while Kevin Slowey will be asked to work out of the bullpen. Baker is pretty clearly the superior pitcher, possessing the better track record and better peripherals. It will be interesting to see how Slowey reacts moving to the pen. He's always had trouble the second and third time facing hitters in the lineup.

Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron posted an article titled, Free Kevin Slowey. Cameron notes what Twins fans already know: Slowey has one of best strikeout-to-walk ratios in baseball, and even with his dangerously-high homerun rates, advanced stats like FIP and xFIP suggest he'd be capable mid-rotation starter for many teams.

Over the past weeks, we've talked a lot about the Twins' decision to hand starting roles to Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn, while forcing Baker and Slowey to compete for the last spot in the rotation. Both Baker and Slowey have posted strong peripherals over the past two seasons, even while they've seen their ERAs rise. In 2009 and 2010, Baker posted a FIP of 4.13, which put him in the top 25 of pitchers who have pitched at least 200 innings in the past two years. Slowey posted a 4.39 FIP, which put him in the top half of pitchers.

Both Baker and Slowey's biggest weakness has been their propensity for fly balls. Both pitchers give up fly balls at a pretty extreme rate, and in turn give up a lot of homeruns. But, to be fair, it's pretty clear they've both been hurt by the Twins' outfield defense over the past two seasons. Between 2009 and 2010, the Twins outfield defense has rated as well-below average by UZR, and disastrous by TZL. This has certainly impacted Baker and Slowey, who rely on their outfielders far more than normal pitchers. Baker's BABIP on fly balls in 2010 was 43% higher than league average, Slowey's was 25% higher.

While Baker and Slowey both seem like good candidates to rebound in 2011, it's not clear how much we should expect them to rebound in front of a Young-Span-Cuddyer outfield.

Michael Cuddyer is seemingly past his foot problems. He's played in two straight minor league games, and is scheduled to make his official spring debut tonight.

Those chanting "Free Wally" had their prayers answered on Tuesday.

Tweet Comment 24 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

If Justin isn't ready to play ever game in April

What will the Twins do. Move him to Dh, Kubel to RF, Cuddyer to 1B or keep Hughes insted of Tolbert. I just can’t see Justin playing everyday yet. Maybe sit him against Lefties and Play Repko in RF, Cuddyer to 1b?

by b1 on Mar 23, 2011 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

The first option seems most likely to occur

Justin DH, Kubel back in RF and Cuddy at 1B. I think Tolbert has the bench role locked up at this point, but if any of those four get injured, Hughes is just a few hours away.

by Ranger_Bob on Mar 23, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Jacque Jones

Is on ESPN First Take right now.

by John_Locke on Mar 23, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

He is on MLB Network now too.

by .mnqwerd on Mar 24, 2011 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions

WOOOOOOOOO FREE WALLY!!!!!!!

by LittleLad on Mar 23, 2011 11:12 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

FREEEEEEEEEEEEDOMMMMMMMM!!!!!

I wonder if he wants his old job at Target Field back?

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
RT @RonGarde You can Tweet that. Just Tweet it. You don't even have to write it. Just fire it through the Internet.

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Mar 23, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions

It will be nice to finally see Mauer, Morneau, and Cuddyer in the same game.

by LittleLad on Mar 23, 2011 11:34 AM EDT via mobile reply actions

Wally is guilty. The defense was laughable and the jury is naive to buy it.

I’ve been a server for many years. Most of my friends are in the service industry. I’ve been stung 3 times and witnessed several other stings. I’ve heard first hand accounts of dozens of other stings.

This is what happens, EVERY TIM: the kids the cops send are coached VERY specifically, and very simply. “One of three things will happen. One, they’ll serve you, in which case you’re done. Two, they’ll ask your age, in which case you tell the truth. Three, they’ll card you, so you show them your real, underage ID.” Period. Every time. I have never heard a deviation from this and nobody I know knows how anybody could EVER fail unless they just punt and serve the kid without doing their job.

There is just no reasonable chance that in this one case the kid for some reason disregarded his training and instructions (which are always gone over at the last minute – sometimes this is actually seen by the stingee and it’s pretty funny to bust the cops/kid before they even order the drink because you saw the “pregame conference”) and decided to lie. If he’s in a diversionary program, that means he’s failed it. If he’s doing it as part of a non-punitive service program, what the hell would his motivation to lie be?

That said, F the cops for doing this shit and ruining working class people’s lives.

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 2:08 PM EDT reply actions

I always love...

…the restaurant saying they’ll come after you (the server) for the very large fines that can come with serving minors. Wait, what? You’re gonna come after me for $10,000? Okey dokey, good luck.

by archie2227 on Mar 23, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

It's like sticking the server with the check for dine and dash. Small-time capitalists are often the worst kind when it comes to employee relations.

But the state can and will fine the server. It sucks.

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely they can

It’s more of a sheeeeeit you think I can come up with that kind of money?

by archie2227 on Mar 23, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

That's why you just card everyone

Doesn’t seem that hard to me.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 23, 2011 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

In order to CYA you should card everybody, but it will backfire in some instances. Enough people get pissed at being carded that your tip will suffer in some situations. Losing one tip is obviously better than losing your job and being fined, but it still sucks. Hell, when I worked at a bank people would get pissed about being carded to make sure it was actually their money that I was giving to them.

by archie2227 on Mar 23, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I pretty much do...

…but some people get so pissed and your wallet suffers. It’s just a shitty use of state resources/power. Kinda like the drug war in general. Still, I actually picked out the last sting without seeing the cops – I was just like “there is no WAY you’re 21” and I had a feeling before I even looked at the ID (which says “under 21”, etc.)

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

EVERY "TIME". doh.

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

The law is the law. If Wally can force police to show a warrant for that September 2010 alcohol sales check on Target Field, and the police don’t have it, then somebody is having their constitutional rights violated. Because he felt entrapment, Wally has a good shot at suing on behalf of his co-worker and getting a hearing before the US Supreme court. There is a pretty good chance that they will likely declare any compliance check using underage drinkers and smokers illegal.

by Jessy S on Mar 23, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

"Wally has a good shot at suing on behalf of his co-worker and getting a hearing before the US Supreme Court."

Totally.

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Um

- Wally doesn’t have standing to sue based on something that happened to someone else (i.e. his co-worker)
- You can’t sue somebody for entrapment. It’s just a defense.
- Even if Wally was convicted, there was 0% chance of this ever going all the way to the supreme court. This case wasn’t even in federal jurisdiction, and I don’t see how it would ever get there.
- None of Wally’s constitutional rights were violated.

And WHY the heck would you think the US Supreme Court would declare any compliance check using underage drinkers and smokers unconstitutional? Where did you get that from?

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 23, 2011 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

It's called Jury Nullification

Juries can acquit anyone they want, and they can do so for basically any reason they want. They don’t have to listen to the evidence or the actual laws. So it doesn’t matter.

Also, I am a lot more skeptical that all narks are going to follow there training perfectly all the time. Especially when they are all excited in the middle of a sting—they want to get the guy. Seems a bit much to assume all the narks perform perfectly all the time…

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 23, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Yup, Jury Nullification is ACTUALLY happened...

…but the Jury didn’t have the guts to say so. They claimed they didn’t believe the kid and thought Wally was credible. Whatever. OF COURSE it was because he’s Wally the Friggin Beer Man and these stings are stupid and the jury was disposed to empathize with a dude who was about to have his life ruined for no meaningful reason.

Re: the narc getting nervous and screwing up. Is that theoretically possible? I guess. But again, I’ve personally seen or passed stings probably 10 times and heard sting stories recounted countless times by friends and acquaintances and I’ve never heard of the kid doing anything but going through the same motions. I don’t really think they’re motivated to try to bust you: they’ve always seemed very relieved that you don’t serve them. Even the cops have seemed glad when I’ve passed or a coworker has passed and I’ve seen it. They shake your hand and are all “you’re doing a good job, sorry for the inconvenience, we’re just doing our job too, etc.” I’ve simply never heard of the kid lying. It’s not like there’s a lot of ways it can go after they order the drink, they’re not given a fake ID and they were just told 60 seconds before, for probably the 20th time, to say their correct age if asked.

The thing is, if the kid fucked up, why not cop to it? Everybody hates you for busting Wally, so why not say "oh shit, you know what, for some reason I forgot the ONE THING I was supposed to say (other than “1 Miler Lite, please”) and decided to tell him I was 21." It’s not even like he’d have gotten in trouble for that. It would’ve been “D’oh, let’s go do it again.”

Unless the kid was just driven to be the government witness who nailed Wally the Beerman and the object of everybody scorn.

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course jurors aren't going to tell reporters "Oh, we just didn't want too convict him."

Why should they?

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 23, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

It happens. I would. I'd do so to irritate the cops and prosecutors and to encourage other citizens to do the same.

I’d say “this is a stupid use of taxpayer dollars. Who cares? Hopefully we sent a message and hopefully more jurors in this situation will tell the cops and the prosecutors where they can stick it.”

by tobynotjason on Mar 23, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions