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Liriano and inefficiency (part one)

There has been a lot of talk about Liriano being inefficient, and this is commonly cited as a reason why he isn't in the upper tier of starting pitchers.

The first problem with this argument, is that Liriano isn't really that inefficient.  He is solidly in the top half of the league when it comes to pitches per inning.  I posted this on a thread, but here is a list (not a complete list) of pitchers who are less inefficient than Liriano.  

 

John Danks
Rick Porcello
Dan Haren
Matt Garza
Edwin Jackson
David Price
Gavin Floyd
Jon Lester
Cole Hamels
Tommy Hanson
Tim Lincecum
Ubaldo Jiminez
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
John Lackey
Gio Gonzalez
Phil Hughes

That's a pretty good list of pitchers.  Noone would dare say that Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jiminez, and Josh Johnson aren't "aces" because of their inefficiency, would they?

The only reason why he has the label of a guy who doesn't pitch into games, is because Gardy is very strict with pitch counts.  This SHOULD NOT be held against Liriano.  This is the same for all pitchers on the staff.

Even when we take into account his innings pitched, he is still really close to many of the "aces" of the league.  Sometimes when we look at innings pitched, we forget that the difference between 6.3 IP and 6.7 IP is just one out.  So I converted all qualified pitcher's IP/GS to number of outs.  Liriano, on average got 19 outs per start.  

Here is a list of qualified pitchers averaged 19 outs per start: (this, unlike the first list, IS complete)

Francisco Liriano
Chad Billingsley
C.J. Wilson
Clay Buchholz
Jason Vargas
Joe Blanton
Colby Lewis
Shaun Marcum
Max Scherzer
Cole Hamels
Hiroki Kuroda
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wolf
Mark Buehrle
Fausto Carmona
Matt Garza
Clayton Kershaw
Livan Hernandez
Dallas Braden
Tim Lincecum
Ted Lilly

Only one guy that most would call an "ace," but some very good pitchers on that list.  What about the guys who got one more out than Liriano?

Jon Lester
John Lackey
Bronson Arroyo
Edwin Jackson
Jeremy Guthrie
Trevor Cahill
Josh Johnson
Ricky Romero
Roy Oswalt
Jered Weaver
John Danks
R.A. Dickey
Zack Greinke
David Price
Ubaldo Jimenez
Tim Hudson
Dan Haren
Chris Carpenter
Ervin Santana
Matt Cain
Brett Myers
Justin Verlander

Hard to argue with that list.  Some of the very best pitchers in the league, Cy Young winners, staff aces.  Also, R.A. Dickey!  

So is that what's keeping Liriano from "ace" status?  One out?  

Poll
If Liriano would have gotten one more out per game last year, would he have been an ace?
Yes, because he was anyway.
78 votes
Yes, that one out would have shown that he was a workhorse, and wasn't such a selfish jerk.
11 votes
No, because true aces throw at least 7 innings per start. Note: By selecting this answer, you are saying that the list of "aces" is a list of 3.
8 votes
No, because I watch the games, and Liriano just doesn't look like an ace. I have also watched 10+ starts of the pitchers that I would rank ahead of him, to make sure they don't also have these undesirable qualities.
13 votes

110 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 55 comments  |  7 recs  | 

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This is a pretty interesting thing

And it really should void all arguments henceforth that claim that Liriano didn’t pitch deep enough (on average, mind you) into ballgames last year.

If he is able to duplicate the season he had last year, we should all be very happy – but I can see that some people aren’t optimistic about this given his recent outings.
I am pulling for him tho.

Also, rec’d.

by twinscrazy_german on Mar 24, 2011 6:05 PM EDT reply actions  

In my opinion

The thing keeping Liriano from being ranked at the very top with the elite pitchers is our horrid outfielding defense. If we could bring in a solid cf that could cover for DY and move span to right, I bet Frankie’s ERA drops 1 point+.

by Codypc21 on Mar 24, 2011 6:56 PM EDT reply actions  

it's true that the OF defense costs the staff runs and outs

The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 24, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dunno

Last season Liriano had a higher GB% than Nick Blackburn (53.6 vs 50.8 on fangraphs) so I doubt a better outfield would drop his ERA an entire point. Also, the splits on baseball-reference show Liriano having a better than league average OPS-allowed on line drives.

OT: but I did see an interesting nugget in pitch selection on Fangraphs. In a 3-2 count Liriano threw his slider 75% of the time. That’s some crazy confidence in the slider.

by archie2227 on Mar 24, 2011 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

In support of better OF defense, though

Liriano did have a waay worse than league average OPS-allowed (147) on fly balls so better defense certainly would have helped.

by archie2227 on Mar 24, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I hit post

then realized I probably should have checked the fly balls number since it was all of one row above the line drive number. Apparently, that was too much work at first.

by archie2227 on Mar 24, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, it could've, because his BABIP on flyballs was terrible (.254 v. the.130ish average).

It’s the sole reason his overall BABIP was so high. If he’d had good outfield defense his traditional numbers would’ve been silly good.

by tobynotjason on Mar 25, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's a pretty interesting number.

It doesn’t mean it’s all on the defense, but it’s a pretty strong argument that the defense was particularly cruel to Liriano. Although I can’t think of any reason that would continue even with the same defenders. They may continue to be bad in the corners, but their badness should be equal-opportunity, not concentrated on Liriano.

by Luke in MN on Mar 26, 2011 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

His LD rate and BABIP is ordinary. A hit below average, maybe, for the whole season.

He gave up a disproportionate number of hits on flyballs. About 20 more than a typical defense/spray luck would predict. That literally is THE source of his “only good” ERA and, in part, less than tremendous W-L record.

by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly. No reason they should suck worse with him than with everybody else.

He probably just got unlucky.

To the extent he’s now a groundball pitcher, the adage about GB pitchers giving up more valuable balls in the air might explain a little of it. Pitchers do show a little year-to-year correlation in the value of each batted ball type, so maybe the guy has a true talent flyball BABIP of .150 or something. The flip side is true, too, though, so as a GB pitcher his true talent for GB BABIP should be a better than last years .250 (.240ish is average, so he was a little unlucky/poorly defended there, too), maybe .220 or .230 or so. In the end, the numbers should balance out to put him in the “everybody’s expected BABIP” range of .290-.300, albeit probably on the low side due to the dominant overall DIP numbers.

by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if you think the corner guys are costing 30 runs a year combined,

that’s spread out over 1450 innings pitched. You’re talking about 0.20 ERA decrease per pitcher. Not insignificant by any means, but far from a full ER/9

by Luke in MN on Mar 24, 2011 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

-1 ERA seems insanely high.

by JustDoIt11 on Mar 24, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I dont think it is spread out evenly over all pitchers though.

It seems like the bad OF didnt affect ‘stache as much. I’ll have to look up the stats again but I am pretty sure frankie suffered from a freakishly bad BABIP.

by Codypc21 on Mar 25, 2011 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the BABIP for Twins starters in 2010

Liriano: .331
Pavano: .281
Slowey: .307
Blackburn: .305
Baker: .323

In Frankie’s magical 2006 campaign he got the help of a .279 BABIP en route to his 2.16 ERA (while posting a higher HR/FB).

by Codypc21 on Mar 25, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

It's a good point.

Liriano might have had more than his share. But BABIP is far, far from just a measure of how well defense played behind a pitcher. For one, Liriano gave up a lot of ground balls, which is basically good, but gives you a higher expected BABIP. For another, there’s just a ton of luck involved in how balls spray around the field for a given pitcher over the course of one season.

Another thing is, if the defense didn’t play as well for Liriano as for the other starters, how do you know it was the corner outfielders who played extra badly and not the good defenders who just didn’t show up like they usually do?

I know the corner guys aren’t good defenders, but it gets blown out of proportion. They aren’t responsible for every bad thing that happens to the pitchers/team.

by Luke in MN on Mar 25, 2011 8:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

Luke, see my posts.

Liriano’s FB BABIP was ATROCIOUS. OF defense and spray-luck indeed appear to have cost him nearly a point of ERA.

by tobynotjason on Mar 25, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

He allowed 42 flyball hits. With slightly better than average DER on flyballs he would've allowed half that number: 21 hits...

10 of which we might assume to be (same ratio as overall XBH/FB hit) XBHs. (Again, his FBBABIP was .254 v. average around .130).

Take away the run value of those hits ( the 2006 numbers I found via google were 0.47 runs for singles, .77 for the doubles, 1.09 for the triples), , add the negative run value of the flyouts they “should have” been (.28)… yeah, something like 19.82 runs saved for Liriano, so a 2.68 ERA v. 3.62 actual.

Damn, actually IS almost a full run.

Might’ve done something wrong there, but as a best guess, that’s a helluva lot of difference in results between the DER he actually got on flyballs and those he’d have gotten with very slightly better than average DER.

I was thinking this had to be wrong since it’s only subtracting about 12% of his hits and cutting his ERA by 25%, but when you think about it, a pitcher that allowed, say 92 hits (half Lirianos total) in his 191 2/3 innings would allow very, very few runs since the odds of them being strung back to back sufficiently to score runs would be long indeed. This is why marginal strikeouts, for example, are so valuable..

Even if this is off a little (maybe most of those DER-gains would be on actual singles, not XBH for example), you still get an idea how much OF defense killed him last year.

by tobynotjason on Mar 25, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

You realize that last year Denard Span had a UZR of 6.3, which was good for the 5th best center fielder in all baseball, right?

by Brady Eyestone on Mar 24, 2011 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, Denard is pretty good but the corners were terrible.

I dont know what his range is but it seemed to me that it could be improved upon. Getting someone with enough range to help DY and move Span to right would probably take us from a horrible defensive OF to an elite defensive OF.

by Codypc21 on Mar 25, 2011 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Or we could just leave Span there, as he’s already a good defensive CF and get someone who isn’t a butcher in the corners.

by Brady Eyestone on Mar 25, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Liriano struck out all his dudes yesterday!

9 dudes; 9 dudes striking theirselfs out. Pretty stinking amazing.

It’s a definitely a good point that IP isn’t really much of a knock on him, especially when you hear D&B talking about his pitch count all the time. It’s a bit of a fetish for them. Maybe it’s just such a reliable thing to talk about during a long inning they can’t help it.

Liriano pitched like an ace last year. If he starts lining up seasons like that, he’ll be called an ace pretty quick.

by Luke in MN on Mar 24, 2011 8:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Liriano didn't stike out "all his dudes" yesterday

He actually gave up many walks and hits.

It’s only that all the outs he actually did get were on stikeouts.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 25, 2011 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

The problem is he's done it once

In 2009 he nibbled and fell behind and was terrible. If he pitches like he did yesterday all year it will look more like 2009 than 2010.

by DJL44 on Mar 24, 2011 10:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, this was my reponse to you post in the other thread:

Guess how many of the pitchers you listed not only threw more pitches per inning, but ALSO threw more total innings?
Justin Verlander
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Danks
Tim Lincecum
Cole Hamels
David Price
Jon Lester
Matt Garza
John Lackey
Gio Gonzalez
Tommy Hanson
Edwin Jackson

Basically—the majority of those players were not just able to throw more pitches per inning, they were also able to pitch more total innings!

I don’t know—maybe you have some different definition of efficiency…

But here’s a FUN list of pitchers who threw FEWER pitches per inning than Liriano last year:
Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay
Felix Hernandez
Adam Wainwright
Tim Hudson
CC Sabathia
Roy Oswalt
Johan Santana
Chris Carpenter
Tervor Cahill
Matt Cain
Zack Greinke

And unsurprisingly—every single one of those pitchers pitched more total innings last year than Liriano.

So how does a list of pitchers who threw more pitches per inning last year, but who mostly ALSO were able to throw more total innings—many of whom doing so even BETTER than Liriano—show that Liriano is one of the more efficient pitchers in baseball? Or that Liriano doesn’t have any problems with endurance? Or that Liriano is one of the best pitcher in baseball?

Frankly, the only inferences I make from these lists are the same things I’ve been arguing all along. EITHER:
(a.) Liriano needs more endurance so that he can use that many pitches per inning and still pitch more innings, OR
(b.) Liriano needs to make fewer pitches per inning so that he can pitch more innings, OR
(c.) The best Liriano can do, given his pitching style, is make this many pitches per inning and just pitch fewer innings than other strikeout pitchers.

None of those conclusions make me think he’s "the best pitcher in baseball" or that he’s efficient. Sorry.

And to clarify—I’m not saying, and have never said, Liriano sucks. I AM saying he is overrated, and there are definitely things he could be working on but doesn’t seem to be concerned about working on.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 25, 2011 12:07 AM EDT reply actions  

In all of the foregoing I never read a claim from ANYONE suggest "Liriano is one of the more efficient pitchers in baseball."

It’s a straw man. The post argued he’s NOT inefficient, not that he IS particularly efficient. He showed he’s in the top half of pitchers, which pretty conclusively demonstrates he is not, in fact, inefficient.

He threw 191 2/3 innings after pitching a bunch of winter ball when the other aces were fishing or in Hawaii or whatever. If you want to say that constitutes a “problem with endurance,” knock yourself out.

If being the 8th best pitcher in baseball last year doesn’t mean he’s “one of the best pitcher’s in baseball”, what does? He posted 6.0 WAR. That’s based on how he pitched and for how many innings he pitched like that. Per WAR, he was 8th best in all baseball. Yes, it penalized him a bit vs. xFIP (which said he was the 2nd best starter when he was actually on the mound, but probably THE best considering Hallady got to throw to NL lineups) for the marginal innings he didn’t pitch that most of the pitchers ahead of him.

by tobynotjason on Mar 25, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I feel like you missed the point.

I never said that he was one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Just that he is more efficient than a bunch of “aces” and pretty close to a bunch more.

The first list is about efficiency, which has nothing to do with total innings. Some people have claimed that Liriano doesn’t pitch deep into games because he is inefficient with his pitches. Overall, he is right in line with a lot of great pitchers when it comes to that, so that claim is false.

The second and third lists show that when looking at innings per start, or how deep he goes into games, he is within 1 out of almost everyone else. Seriously, almost everyone. Again, is it that one out per start that’s keeping him from being an ace?

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 25, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

As for blaiming everything on Gardy

My response is either:
(a) it’s irrationally speculative for you to assume Gardy pulled Liriano an out or two too early every single start Liriano had, OR
(b) FIRE GARY!!!11111

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 25, 2011 12:09 AM EDT reply actions  

And as for the "FIRE GARY" business...

There is a point to this.

Unfortunately, watching and discussing baseball the only substantial thing I do outside of my work, which is law. In law, especially appellate law, there is much concern over the deference you give to determinations other people make. For example—an appellate court (Court of Appeals) will defer to the trial court’s decision on whether to allow or disallow any piece of evidence, because the trial judge was the one who actually saw the evidence, the one who deals with juries, and the one who heard the live arguments. Appellate judges realize that, even if they don’t agree with the decision, the trial judge was in the better position to know the closer truth, so they defer to his decision unless it’s CLEARLY an abuse, which happens rarely.

Sorry for the long boring explanation.

But I tend to approach baseball the same way. Most of the time, I’m going to defer to the Twins FO and Gardy, since I have no reason to think I somehow know more or better about what is going on than they do. I might not always agree—but I stop myself to think , “maybe that’s because you don’t know the whole story.” Perhaps this is just a natural reaction for me, given the things I have to think about while writing such appellant briefs all day.

In conclusion—the lack of deference people give to the Twins FO and Gardy is what drives me to post crap about Firing Gary, and such. Maybe I’m just overly sensitive. Who knows. But this is my explanation for myself.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 25, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

Of course I've been arguing with another lawyer

Yes, we give deference on things like evidentiary rulings; certainly Gardenhire et. al. know about a million more things about baseball in general and these particular players specifically than I do.

On the other hand, appellate courts do not owe deference to lower courts on questions of law. To extend the analogy, it is perfectly reasonable to question how Gardenhire constructs his lineups, or how he approaches bullpen deployment, or how limiting he is/isn’t with his starters.

You have asserted, based on what I find to be dubious evidence, that Liriano’s problem is that he doesn’t work hard enough, which limits his durability. I think he’s perfectly capable of going an acceptable number of pitches per start in order to be a starter of the first rank. You have further suggested that he could be more consistent, and get deeper into games, if he…something. Worked harder?

My position is that, no matter what you have heard or read, that is too big an assumption for me. Nobody gets where he is without working hard. I might make the assumption that, even if he has said he didn’t stay in shape, he knows his body and what it needs.

Pitching is hard. Even the best aren’t great every time out. He wants to succeed, everyone wants to succeed. It isn’t easy; it clearly isn’t easy to be at your best every time you take the mound. If it were, everyone would do it.

Ultimately, I have no interest in blaming the players for their failures unless it’s absolutely clear that they are at fault. I have to problem pointing out those failings and weaknesses, but not for one second do I assume that it’s something other than their inherent limits.

As for this: the lack of deference people give to the Twins FO and Gardy is what drives me to post crap about Firing Gary

Yes, you are too sensitive, and here’s why: No matter how incensed people get, or sarcastic, or insulting to Gardenhire, et. al., my guess is that 99% of the posters here would admit without hesitation that he knows a lot more about baseball than they do. In other words, most of us assume that it’s a simply unstated part of every post we make on the topic:(Gardenhire knows more than I do but) I disagree with not using Nathan there…

This is a blog for conversation about the Twins. We get that we don’t know everything, but to just say: Well, the Twins know best doesn’t lead to much conversation. I view it (and I think most due) as unstated but accepted that of course the Twins know more than us.

The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 25, 2011 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

You might want to visit a game thread now and then.
…my guess is that 99% of the posters here would admit without hesitation that [Gardy] knows a lot more about baseball than they do.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
RT @RonGarde You can Tweet that. Just Tweet it. You don't even have to write it. Just fire it through the Internet.

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Mar 25, 2011 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've been to plenty

Game threads are their own species, but I maintain my position.

The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 25, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

Two thoughts about this debate

1. I think Myjah’s points about Liriano’s performance last season are valid to a point. An ace should not only have great stuff, but use it with great effect. Frankie pitches as well as anyone, but hasn’t necessarily sustained it throughout a full season (191 IP isn’t bad, though). I can agree with the skepticism (that’s how I roll). But to be fair I will point out that Liriano’s IP from last year probably are skewed by the fact that he threw something over 220 total innings last year (counting winter ball). My guess is that including these innings in his total (or even a discounted number of them if you want to suggest the winter league hitters are not as tough to get out, on average, as MLB hitters) would place him much closer to the top of the first list on her post.

2. I disagree with Eric’s conclusion that because pitching is hard and sports are hard, Liriano (or all other pitchers, or all other athletes) have worked hard to get where they are. Some people, notwithstanding high baseball IQs and years of hard work, will never be good enough to play in MLB. Conversely there are others, in baseball and other sports, who are gifted with certain talents and abilities, but don’t use them to their full potential and will never work hard enough to get there. David Wells didn’t strike me as a guy who worked out a lot. John Kruk.

My take: I’m not ready to call Liriano an ace until he puts up back-to-back strong seasons, and he shows us some fire and competitive spirit that gives us faith he won’t knuckle under in pressure situations (note, he may have it and just not show it, but if I don’t see it I can’t just assume it’s there). I’m also not prepared to say that Liriano doesn’t try hard, but it is a red flag when a player with an injury history shows up to camp admitting he didn’t do his arm exercises over the winter. Maybe he felt he needed a break from the heavy workload in 2010? He came back from TJ and he clearly worked out (he bulked up) while he was rehabbing. I do get Myjah’s concern, though.

For me, the jury’s still out.

by Manley Dewars on Mar 25, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just want to point out

that I’m not even arguing that Liriano is an ace going forward. (Although I think he is). I’m simply arguing that he pitched like an ace last year. I wanted to keep it simple so that we didn’t argue about 10 different things at once.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 25, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's been one of the main thrusts of my "complaints"!

I by no means think Liriano is a terrible pitcher—I just think it is way too early to label him an ACE. He had a great year last year, and all these people suddenly think he’s the best pitcher in baseball. Huh? Especially in face of the fact I see all these signs he’s not as committed to his career as he could be/other aces are…. I think people are jumping the gun and overrating him based on one year.

I’d like to see Liriano keep this level of performance up longer than that—ESPECIALLY considering the fact the only real complaints I ever see of him concern his level of consistency and commitment…. That’s the hump I want to see him get over before I proclaim him an ACE.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 27, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

No

I’m sorry. Argue the points people have made. Nobody has expressed the opinion that Liriano is “the best pitcher in baseball.”

The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Responsive Points
“You have asserted, based on what I find to be dubious evidence, that Liriano’s problem is that he doesn’t work hard enough, which limits his durability.”

I don’t find it so dubious. I’ve follow Liriano his whole career. Time and again, hearing things like Liriano came in to spring training admitting he didn’t do his off-season exercises; Liriano coming to Spring Training and getting a DWI; Liriano late for spring training because he didn’t get his visa in time; etc. No—no conclusive proof of his work ethic, but I would be dumb not to look at all these things over time and think, “Hmm… maybe Liriano has a hard time keeping up with his responsibilities.”

I don’t know how someone can think Liriano wouldn’t be doing better had he taken care of his arm, and other responsibilities in the off-season…. This IS professional baseball—that stuff is a little important, no?

And again—I don’t think he is a horrible pitcher by any means. I think he certainly has the talent. But in my mind, a true ACE has not just natural talent but the discipline to maximize that talent.

On the other hand, appellate courts do not owe deference to lower courts on questions of law. To extend the analogy, it is perfectly reasonable to question how Gardenhire constructs his lineups, or how he approaches bullpen deployment, or how limiting he is/isn’t with his starters.

Except for the fact all those decisions rest on knowledge of FACTS (who is healthy, who needs rest, who should I give chance based on their current attitude, etc.) unlike questions of law on appeal where the appellate judges don’t need to know the facts to settle the question. The whole point in the difference in standards of review between law and facts is the appellate judges have all they need to know for the former but not the later. That is not the case with making lineups, bullpen deployment, or starters.

Furthermore, it’s a farce to think appellate law judges don’t actually defer somewhat to what the judges below have already said. They do, and former MN Chief Justice Magnuson has told me this himself.

“As for this: the lack of deference people give to the Twins FO and Gardy is what drives me to post crap about Firing Gary.” Yes, you are too sensitive, and here’s why: No matter how incensed people get, or sarcastic, or insulting to Gardenhire, et. al., my guess is that 99% of the posters here would admit without hesitation that he knows a lot more about baseball than they do.

Too sensitive? It doesn’t hurt me if people think they know better than Gardy. I’m just making a point in response.

And actually, I think a lot of people think they know more than Gardy. Most of their arguments rest on some SABR stat being higher/lower than some other SABR stat. In reality, there are way too many other considerations a manager has to account for when deciding how to lead his team…. It’s like saying there is some statistic for having the perfect matrimonial relationship. Reality isn’t objective like that. Deal with it.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 27, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, there are plenty of statistics corresponding to marriage/divorce

For example, those who marry at a young age are significantly more likely to later divorce.

(it’s true, but I’m mostly just saying this to get your goat)

"Nobody wants to hear me rap." - Joe Mauer

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Mar 27, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

God Damn it. Can't anyone around here have a little faith?

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 27, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, you are the one who brought up your own sensitivity

So that’s what I responded to.

I doubt strongly that many people here think they know more than Gardenhire. Your choice to believe that, thus allowing you to, I don’t know, scold people that the Twins know what they are doing, is your choice.

The Wolves are like the worst meal you've ever had--terrible while you're eating it and even worse later.

by Eric in Madison on Mar 28, 2011 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I never blamed anything on Gardy

In fact, I think he’s right to follow strict pitch counts. Like I said, he does that with the whole staff. I don’t have evidence for this, but I think almost everyone would agree that the main reason Liriano was taken out was due to pitch counts. There were certainly times that he was taken out due to being ineffective, like all pitchers are, but the main reason was the pitch count.

If he was pitching for the Tigers, there is no question in my mind he’d have thrown over 200 innings. But Gardy protects his pitchers more than Lieland does, and I think that he’s right to do that.

The whole point is, that even though he was taken out earlier than some other pitchers, he still only throw ONE OUT per start less than most of the top tier pitchers. Gardy realizes that that one extra out isn’t as important as keeping his starters healthy and rested for the next start.

Anyway, it’s funny that you call me irrationally speculative, when I’m basing my whole argument off numbers, and a commonly known trend that Gardy is strict with pitch counts. You are basing your whole argument that he’s lazy on what? He didn’t do his arm exercizes this spring? What does that have to do with him pitching deep into games last year? He pitched a ton of innings in winter ball last spring! It’s amazing that he was even able to throw the 191 innings he did!

Neither of us know much of anything about Liriano, other than how he’s performed on the field, and some speculation from beat writers. And the performance on the field was great. It may not have been Cy Young worthy, but it was up there with the very best pitchers in the league.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 25, 2011 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's what I don't get
In fact, I think he’s right to follow strict pitch counts. Like I said, he does that with the whole staff. I don’t have evidence for this, but I think almost everyone would agree that the main reason Liriano was taken out was due to pitch counts. There were certainly times that he was taken out due to being ineffective, like all pitchers are, but the main reason was the pitch count.

…so if you think it would be unhealthy for Liriano to throw more pitches, and he wasn’t being taken out because he was ineffective—why exactly is it not so inefficient for Liriaino to be throwing so many pitches AND ALSO not Gardy’s fault for taking Liriano out too early?

How do you get “Liriano isn’t inefficient” from a list of pitchers who can BOTH throw more pitches than Liriano AND perform better while doing so?

The whole problem is, your numbers don’t logically support what you are trying to argue.

"It happened in the moment, and it happened." - Carlos Gomez

by myjah on Mar 27, 2011 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again, you're missing the point

Gardy is strict with pitch counts. It really has nothing to do with Liriano.

You say that it is a list of pitchers who CAN throw more pitches. I say that it’s a list of pitchers who DID throw more pitchers. If pitchers decided when they came out of games, then that would be a different story.

Overall, there are two points here, and you’re getting them mixed up.

When I say efficiency, I’m talking about how efficient he is with his pitches. This has nothing to do with how many innings he threw, or even how many pitches he threw per game. Just how efficient he was. Overall, from the first list, he is pretty efficient. More so than many pitchers who are thought of as aces.

The second point is that its not necessarily the pitchers fault how many innings/pitches he throws per start. Like I said, Gardy is strict with pitch counts. Jim Leyland, for example is much more lenient. That does not make Justin Verlander a better pitcher, or more efficient that Liriano.

It would be different if Gardy was only strict with Liriano. That is not the case. In general, he is strict. Whether or not this is a good thing or not is not the point.

The last point, and the one you don’t seem to acknowledge, is that he does go fairly deep into games, and is within one out of just about everyone else. Your arguments, and others I’ve heard, make it seem like he’s constantly leaving early, when other teams aces are pitching 7+ every start. That just isn’t the case. Yes, there are a lot of great pitchers who pitched further into games than Liriano did. My point is that that one extra out that many of them got is close to meaningless. Yes, they pitched further on average, but its close enough that it doesn’t really matter.

As far as them performing better, well that’s an argument for a different day. I don’t believe most of them did perform better, because I don’t believe ERA is a good way to measure pitcher performance. If Liriano threw the exact same pitches, to the exact same batters, but Carl Crawford was playing left instead of Delmon, his ERA would have almost certainly dropped. Same performance, different ERA. There is no perfect performance measure for pitchers, but I like looking at the ones that separate the performance of the pitcher from the performance of his defense.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 28, 2011 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not well versed in baseball statistics...

and I haven’t learned the meaning of statistics that weren’t on baseball cards in 1990, but I would be interested to see how the change in number of pitches from inning to inning is related to “performance”.

/useless digression

by fastfred on Mar 25, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Well, in general, the fewer pitches you throw, the better

But it’s absolutely better to strike three guys out on 15 pitches than it is to allow 3 line drives on 3 pitches.

Throwing fewer pitches will correlate strongly to performing well, but there are always outliers, the most notably being Nick Blackburn. Despite throwing very few pitches per inning, Blackburn was terrible last year.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 25, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Great topic and thread...

My only suggestion…Post the numbers you are referring to next to the names. I trust you and all…it’s just that I don’t trust people. You’ve set some discrete statistical standards…I just don’t know what they are (i.e. I’m too lazy to look up Liriano’s stats, then compare them to everyone else on your lists in the contexts you’ve given).

I absolutely agree that we, and the Twins, are undervaluing Frankie’s capacity as an Ace though. If you give me one game to win, and I can pick any Twins starter, screw consistency…I want dominance. IMHO, that’s Frankie…

"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"

by mutleyil on Mar 25, 2011 11:16 PM EDT reply actions  

"Inefficient" is a bit of a second-tier complaint

We’d love our ace to be both effective and efficient but if I had to chose one, I’d pick effective hands down.

Santana used to get knocked for being inefficient. So did Pedro. Its certainly not ideal to have to pull a guy when he’s going well in only the 6th or 7th because he’s hit 110 pitches but is more important that he does well.

by DavidRF on Mar 26, 2011 9:25 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

mostly agree

depending on what deficiencies you’re willing to compromise out of an aces FIP & xFIP quiver

"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"

by Wright of passage on Mar 26, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is one of the finest points that's ever been illustrated on this board...

and I agree 100%. Pretty much blows the “not an ace” arguments out of the water.

Well done.

by DJSkillz on Mar 31, 2011 4:31 PM EDT reply actions  

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