Minor League Report...March 26, 2011
by roger13 on Mar 26, 2011 8:05 AM EDT
in Minor Leagues
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PrintWith less than a week to opening day, the Twins got their roster down to 29 players. Lefty Phil Dumatrait and catcher Danny Lehmann will remain with the team thru Monday, then report to the minor league camp. Pitchers Carlos Gutierrez, Chuck James and Kyle Waldrop together with catcher Rene Rivera, infielder Chase Lambin and outfielder Brian Dinkelman will travel with the Twins to Atlanta. They will return to Ft. Myers following the Braves games where they will join the Red Wings who open their season on April 7th.
Earlier this week, the Twins attempted to get Pat Neshek through waivers so he could be assigned to the Rochester without remaining on the 40-man roster. The best explanation of this move that I have seen was written earlier this week by our friend, Seth Stohs. Seth believes that this move was done because the Twins believe that several of the younger relievers have passed Pat and that they doubted he would ever return to his pre injury form. For all of us who knew Pat, we wish him well in San Diego.
One of the four cuts will come when they decide who will get the utility infielder spot, Luke Hughes or Matt Tolbert. With over 450 votes last week, the readers of Twinkie Town said they expected Luke Hughes to get the spot by nearly a two to one margin. With Tolbert's bat heating up this past week and Hughes cooling off, would the vote be different if held today?
Anthony Slama threw only one inning early in camp and appears that he will open the season either at Rochester or on the disabled list. The final two cuts will come from a group of five relievers, three of whom will make the opening day roster. They are lefties Glen Perkins, who is out of options, Scott Diamond, who was a Rule 5 pick, and Dusty Hughes. Also included are right handed relievers Jeff Manship and Jim Hoey. I am not aware of any way to make our weekly poll a best three of five, so today's question will be who is the most likely of the five to make the opening day roster. Will our reader selections agree with Twins management when they make their decision next week?
After the jump I will touch on a few highlights from minor league camp.
Ryan Mullins was one of the Red Wings top starters last year, before missing the last couple months with an injury. It is great seeing Ryan back on the mound, pitching two shutout innings and picking up the win on Thursday versus Pawtuckett. Rene Tosoni had a big three run home run in that game off Red Sox starter, Tim Wakefield.
Anthony Swarzak made a couple starts this week, pitching three innings in each while allowing only one run. Yorman Bazardo and Kyle Gibson each threw three shutout inning in Monday's 1-0 win. Dustin Martin had a pair of hits and drove in the winning run. Martin also had a home run in Wednesday's win while Juan Portes had a two run homer in Tuesday's 5-5 tie. Eric Hacker got the start in the tie, allowing three runs in 4.0 innings.
All indications are that the New Britain Rock Cats will have a roster very similar to opening day last year. One difference will be Tony Davis, Billy Bullock, Dakota Watts and a healthy Spencer Steedley and Steven Hirschfeld who are candidates for their bullpen. A strong bullpen will be a huge improvement as the Cats try to rebound from one of the worst seasons in league history. It appears an improved Deolis Guerra will be the Ace of the staff. It will be interesting to see if Liam Hendriks moves up to the Cats on opening day or if the Twins wait and Hendriks and former first round pick Alex Wimmers join the team in late May or early June?
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Slowey to Braves?
to me a Slowey to the Braves for Diamond and another young player might be an idea the F.O. is working on. I just wounder if they (F.O.) like Diamond that much or Slowey that little? Or, will we jump to get another MI. with Diamond? Just a thought.
That would be a Horrible move
by twinscrazy_german on Mar 26, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
+1
Diamond would not even be in our top 20 prospects. Maybe Robinson for Diamond straight up or something. But Slowey is a very valuable arm for us.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I like Diamond way more than you...
but Slowey straight up would be bad. I think a reasonable trade would be preferable to having him sit in the pen for a year as the long guy, since I’d love to see him prove himself starting in AAA.
1 HR every 23 1/3 innings for his minor league career is ground ball stuff I love. He’d be in my Twins top 20 easily.
by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Who from Twinkie Town's Top 20 would you trade for Diamond?
Gibson, Hicks, Sano, Revere, Wimmers, Benson, Arcia, Hendriks, Kepler-Rozycki, Morales. Thats our Top 10, I sure wouldn’t trade any of them for Diamond.
Bromberg, Gutierrez, Salcedo, Parmelee, Waldrop, Deolis Guerra, Bullock, Rosario, Soliman, Tosoni. Thats our second ten, still wouldn’t trade any of them for Diamond. Gardy is high on Waldrop and it sounds like he may be the first guy up when a reliever is needed. Guerra is the most improved guy Andy saw this spring. So no trades here.
Lets go to 25, that is Plouffe, Watts, Slama, Holbrooks and Hughes. Tough to trade Diamond for any of those guys. At # 26 we had Diamond, looks about right to me. The five right after him are Hermsen, Dean, Dozier, Goodrum and Stuifbergen. Maybe Hermsen or Stuifbergen, but not Dean. Dozier and Goodrum all have to much potential and are middle infielders which is a position of need in the organization.
I'd consider most of the guys 11-20.
I think this is a case of people overvaluing “our” familiar guys. Looking just at the pitchers, it’s not that I don’t like Bromberg, Gut, Waldrop, Guerra, Bullock, etc at all. It’s not that I don’t have high hopes for Salcedo and Soliman.
It’s just that I think Diamond is probably very close to being a solid MLB back-end rotation guy, and that’s a lot more valuable than being a relief pitcher of anything but rare-bird-elite caliber, like Gut or Waldrop. I think he’s more likely to pan out than Bromberg or Guerra, and Salcedo and Soliman are still lottery tickets. Exact position in a list like that depends on how much you weight toward ceiling (which those lists always do), but I think he fits right in the 11-20 group.
by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I always have a hard time believing with everyone who disregards relievers...
…will be interesting to see how that works out if this years bullpens struggles. Most fans will be on the warpath. Personally, I believe a top of the line reliever is as valuable or more so than a 4th-5th starter. An organization like the Twins appears to have an over abundance of back of the rotation starters with more on the way. What we really need is a couple top of the line short relievers. To me, they are every bit as valuable which is why I would rate Waldrop as high as Diamond. Gutierrez and Bullock could be special and I would rate them higher.
I just don't see a lot of upside
He’s a soft-tossing lefty with good control and breaking stuff. He’s done well in the minors. But I don’t see him being anything more than a long man or a 5th starter in the majors. With the current crew plus Gibson, Wimmers, Hendriks, Bromberg, Salcedo, Guerra, Soliman, etc.., I don’t see him have a lot of opportunities with this team.
On the other hand, you can never have too much pitching. But I wouldn’t trade any of the above mentioned pitchers for Diamond. Maybe Hermsen or Stuifbergen, just to get more left handed.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
You just described Jamie Moyer
And Tom Glavine. Soft tossing lefties with good control and breaking stuff can have long careers.
Very rarely
I don’t think anybody will compare Diamond to those guys. Alan Anderson maybe.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd deal Waldrop
I don’t think he’s a top 20 type prospect. He has no more ceiling and what he has isn’t quite enough to make the roster.
Interesting quote from Hughes in the papers
He said the Royals were trying to get him to strike everyone out. This led to terrible walk rates and generally messed him up. The Twins are trying to get him to throw strikes. If it works it would be the 3rd time the Royals screwed up a lefthanded reliever and the Twins fixed him.
When will we see the 2011 prospects list on the front page?
TWSS
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
RT @RonGarde You can Tweet that. Just Tweet it. You don't even have to write it. Just fire it through the Internet.
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Mar 26, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jesse A.K.A Mr. Unreliable
I expect to see this up around October :)
by clutterheart on Mar 26, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
“My strikeout-to-walk [rate] was terrible,” [Hughes] said. “I went through a stretch trying to strike everybody out, and it really backfired. I haven’t been trying to improve that at all here [with the Twins]. It fits the mold here. They want you to get after it.”
A couple ways to interpret that. I can see how it can be read, as you read it, to mean FIRST they told me to strike people out, SECOND my K:BB ratio went to hell as a result. (And THIRD, implictly, now everything’s all better thanks to the Twins, notwithstanding that the evidence points to an exactly opposite conclusion.)
The most literal way, though, is that FIRST his K:BB was bad, SECOND the Royals told him to improve it since they correctly realized he would not be an effective MLB pitcher with a ratio like he had, THIRD he tried to strike more guys out and it didn’t work and his results were bad (“backfired” – maybe walking more, maybe just sucking?), FOURTH he’s stopped trying to strike people out and/or not walk people now (“I haven’t been trying to improve that”) and that’s why he’s been so “successful” this spring (i.e. why he hasn’t allowed a run).
Whichever interpretation is correct, it’s B.S.
As everybody can see for themselves, ever since he’s been pitching to hitters at or near the major leagues (instead of AA guys at the end of an early spring game) he’s allowed hits and walks and simply gotten lucky with runners LOB to protect his ERA. The thing is, regardless of (what he implies is) the Twins’ belief that he doesn’t need to miss bats, there is no such thing as sustained MLB success with a K:BB ratio anything like his career mark (or like his 1:1 ratio this spring). It doesn’t exist. I guess theoretically somebody could induce 80% groundballs and do okay with a 1.5:1 ratio, but Dusty Hughes career rate is 37.6% (i.e. not good at all).
Anyway, if your interpretation is correct, then his happy talk is deceptive since they’ve thus far failed to fix him: a K:BB ratio is 5:5 is terrible and worse than it was. If my alternate interpretation is correct, his happy talk is misguided, since a pitcher MUST have a better K:BB ratio than he’s posted to date to be successful in MLB.
by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
What evidence do we have that he has gotten worse since leaving the Royals?
Spring training stats? I have some faith in Rick Anderson. If RA says he’s pitching well, I will take his word for it until the evidence says otherwise. I admit his numbers from previous years don’t look good. But we can’t say he is getting worse under the Twins tutelage until we see him get hammered in regular season games. If he does, we’ll see Gutierrez or someone like that. Until then, I’m giving the Twins the benefit of the doubt.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think that's the wrong question in light of the Twins/Hughes' claims.
The question their chatter begs is “What evidence do we have that he’s gotten BETTER?” The answer is “None.” We’re just supposed to believe he was secretly decent while looking utterly mediocre his entire minor and major league career until now, when Randerson supposedly showed him the sacred scrolls? Possible, sure, but without any evidence? In view of evidence – and I will absolutely grant you that spring training stats are hardly the gold-standard, but that’s ALL we have – suggesting exactly the opposite of the happy talk claims? They suggest he was OK pitching to kids and has been terrible pitching to older kids/some big leaguers.
by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
What evidence? Scouting
I’m all in favor of numbers. And, frankly, it’s all we fans have to go on. But I think it’s disrespectful of baseball men who have been around the game for longer than you’ve been alive to doubt their ability to evaluate players. At least until I see otherwise with the limited tools I have at my disposal (FanGraphs, B-Ref, BP, BA, etc.), I have no reason to doubt them.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'm worried more about the walks than the strikeouts
You can put a LH guy in a platoon situation and if he doesn’t walk anyone he’s usually not going to do too much damage. I don’t think the Twins will give him much rope if he’s walking batters.
I don't think Diamond has pitched since 3-12
Is he throwing at the minor league games? No way he makes the trip to Minnesota.
I think he throws today for the first time in two weeks
He cut his thumb. So that took him out. ALso, I suspect Hoey’s last opportunity came and went yesterday. I expect Manship, Hughes and Perkins to be the three guys to complement Nathan, Capps, Mijares and Slowey.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
How about this strategy...
…First, because of his thumb he begins the season on the DL. He stays in EST, throws every two days in their games. About the 20th of April, he should be 100% healthy and thrown enough to be ready. Even though he is a Rule 5 pick, I believe they can send him to Rochester/New Britain on a Re-hab assignment. That gives them a month, plus, to watch him and for him to compete. They then find a place in their bullpen or offer him back at that time. Maybe Atlanta will have less interest in him the first week of May, maybe not. Maybe he will pitch great and replace whomever is hurting or pitching poorly in the Twins bullpen.
This is what I think is most likely to happen.
by tobynotjason on Mar 26, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If the league approves, it makes a lot of sense
I seem to recall a couple of cases where teams tried to stash Rule 5 players on the DL and the league balked at it. But those were cases when a guy had a pimple on the back of his hand or something.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hopefully he isn't a fast healer!
Expect the league wouldn’t do much unless they kept him on the DL for an extended period with a minor injury. Gotta believe that 15-20 days on the DL, then a rehab which is limited wouldn’t cause a problem.
I feel like Hughes and Perkins seem to be both locks
Yeah, that would give three lefties, but as long as they can get guys out it shouldn’t be a problem. Plus, one of them needs to be able to get lefties and righties out.
Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD
Speaking of Ryan Mullins
Matt Fox is doing OK for the Red Sox this spring.
Under three ERA, 7 IP, 9 SO.
Probally won’t crack the team, but still nice to see.
Would have loved to see the Twins hang on to him...
…but where would he be this spring? Headed back to Rochester. Behind at least one extra starter with the Twins and Gibson and Bromberg at Rochester. Was best for everyone that he moved on last fall.
Agree
He would be behind someone like Bloomberg even for a starting spot. But if he was still with the Twins he might be in the mix for bullpen.
by clutterheart on Mar 26, 2011 4:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He didn't land in a particularly favorable location
Matt Fox needed to make it to the bottom of the NL on waivers, not get picked up by the Red Sox.
If Anthony Swarzak doesn't do well in April and May,
I expect the Twins will remove him from the 40-man roster, trimming it to 38 players. The 2 spots will probably go to the best of Kyle Gibson, Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Gutierrez, and maybe Billy Bullock. Or maybe even Chuck James.
Last year was a disappointing performance from Swarzak...
…He did a bit better early this winter down in Venezuela. After moving down to Rochester this spring, he has had several good outings. Is he anything more than a #5 starter, probably not. Does he have a future with the Twins, probably not. Should they be able to get something for him, hopefully. Does Atlanta take Swarzak for Diamond? Now that is an interesting question.
I can't imagine they would.
Twins should jump on that if it’s an option.
by tobynotjason on Mar 27, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It'll be at 38 when they send Diamond back
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Catcher
They will have to put a 3rd catcher on the 40 man at some point. So one of these spots will be left open for that catcher
by clutterheart on Mar 26, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Off topic but thought I'd post
“http://www.tangotiger.net/survey/
Please let me know your playing time forecasts for your favorite team."
Tangotiger is asking people to estimate the playing time for players on the team they follow.
Twins option Luke Hughes, Slama and Hoey to Rochester...
…that means Perkins, Dusty Hughes and Manship have made the team. LaVelle is reporting that they are attempting to work out a deal for Diamond. My thoughts are McCardell, Lanigan, or Stuifbergen. If Atlanta is looking for an outfielder, how about Dustin Martin who has looked great the last week in games with both Rochester and the Twins.
I don't see any of those as being acceptable to the Braves. Maaaybe Stuifbergen, but I doubt it.
Hope I’m wrong, cause they’d all be fine by me.
by tobynotjason on Mar 27, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
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