Strength of Schedule - Twins v. White Sox

by Mr. Smokum on Mar 26, 2011 1:35 AM EDT

Every team makes its own destiny and there are so many factors to consider that its pretty tough if not impossible to make a comparison of team's schedules. But before things get rolling next week I thought I'd waste a bit of my time looking at which team's the Twins and White Sox will play more relative to each other.

I didn't consider the Tigers because frankly they finished 13 games back last year and - in my mind - they would've had to sign another stud (Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee, or Adrian Beltre) in order to be right around the same level as the Twins and Sox. I still think they're a completely plausible if slightly darkhorse contender though - especially considering the turn-over and youth in their rotation.

Anyway back on point.. after tabulatin' the schedules the following are the only differences in games played against specific teams. (Note: You can mix and match which games to match against which but I think you'll agree the result is the same)

TWINS WHITE SOX

- (1) more game against Red Sox (1) more game against Mariners

- (6) more games v. Brewers (6) more games v. Cubs

- (3) more games v. Giants (3) more games v. Rockies

- (2) more games v. Rays (2) more games v Athletics

- (3) more games v. Padres (3) more games v. Nationals

- (1) more game v. Angels (1) more game v. Blue Jays

More than anything its the difference between the "all-in" 2011 Brewers and the Cubs continued futility thats gonna hurt. Obviously the Red Sox are going to be much stiffer competition than the Mariners but that 's just (1) game. I think most people would agree that the Giants and the Rays will be better than Rockies and the Athletics this year too but I don't think those teams are terribly far apart. Finally differences in the last (4) games on the list seem negligible.. if there's an advantage in playing the Pad's v. Nationals or Angels v. Blue Jays I don't see it.

So on the whole it looks like our squad drew the short stick this time. Ultimately I see (7) games where the Sox have a much easier opponent and (5) games where they have a slightly easier opponent. The result of which is maybe something like spotting the Sox 2-3 games in the standings?

That's a big difference in the Central but for what its worth the Twins finished with a 6 game lead over the Sox last year.

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2010 schedule differences (inspired by cmathewson)

TWINS WHITE SOX

- (6) more games v. Brewers (6) more games v. Cubs

- (3) more games v. Rockies (3) more games v. Marlins

- (3) more games v. Phillies (3) more games v Pirates

- (3) more games v. Mets (3) more games v. Nationals

- (1) more game v. Blue Jays (2) more games v. Angels

- (1) more game v. Rangers (2) more games v Red Sox

- (1) more game v. Rays

- (1) more game v. Orioles

I don't know if there was much of a significant difference between the Cubs and Brewers last year. I'd also say (4) games v. Jays, Rangers, Rays, and O's is pretty equivalent to (4) v. Red Sox and Angels.

So really the difference was the interleague schedule as cmathewson noted. The Twins won (5) of the (9) games v. Rockies, Phillies, Mets while the Sox won (8) of their (9) games against Marlins, Pirates, Nationals.

It looks roughly like the Sox had about the same schedule advantage last year as they'll get this year (about 2-3 games worth) which could easily be erased by any number of circumstances.

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Thanks

It comes down to when you play someone even morevthan who you play. Injuries, pitching depth, who’s hot, that’s what makes for schedule advantages. Especially for teams that each would play the same number of games. Do you face king Felix in a given series, or one of the Mariners minor league ers?

by Old Twins Cap on Mar 26, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions

Completely Agree.

For instance both teams face the Yankees for a (4) game series in April and another in August. One team could possibly miss CC both times and another could get him both. But short of creating a program to deliver an output considering the thousands of variables that can and will happen this is the best way I could think of to get a rough look at how things balance out.

by Mr. Smokum on Mar 26, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Had to do the Math

I figure that the Twins will likely face CC twice this season while the White Sox will likely face him at home in August. However major factors will come into play here because CC could miss a start. Heck he could blow out his elbow in the first inning of the season against Detroit and see his career come to a crashing end.

by Jessy S on Mar 27, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

This bugged me last year as well

While we were playing the Mets and Phillies, they were playing the Pirates and Nationals. They went on an incredible tear after playing those two teams seven times in a week. Eventually, they had to play us, and we sent them back in the tank. So it was all the more sweet.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Mar 26, 2011 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

+1

by diehardtwinsfan on Mar 26, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Great Point.

I tallied up the differences in last year’s schedules too & added it above. The difference seems to be just what you mention about the Sox’ interleague schedule & it looks like it amounts to the same slight advantage going into this year.

by Mr. Smokum on Mar 26, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Do you have home/away data?

Because that’s a factor too.

by Caleb A on Mar 26, 2011 2:29 PM EDT reply actions

I didn't spend time looking at that.

But I also don’t think there’d be any great differences. I mean.. everyone plays 81 at home and 81 abroad so things generally balance out. For instance.. maybe the Sox had an extra home series against the Rangers but maybe the Twins had an extra home series against the Angels?

How the home/away games break out is definitely another variable but I think just looking at the biggest determinant (teams played) allows a rough comparison of schedules.

by Mr. Smokum on Mar 26, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

It's really a lot closer than you'd think

based on fangraphs’ fan projections

An average team would win 7.7 games with our schedule and 8.0 games with theirs.

Using CAIRO’s projected standings

The difference is a touch larger, 7.5 to 8.2.

You can certainly quibble with some of the rankings for both of these systems, but overall, it will probably be about a half a game difference in schedule.

I think we tend to overrate how much better good teams are than bad teams. The difference between being in a playoff chase, as opposed to be in the cellar, is the difference between winning 56% and 44% of your games.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Mar 28, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Took me a bit to figure out what you did there but kudos - very clever.

Looks like you found each team’s summation of the results from the formula N – (N*r) for their unique series oppponents. Where “N” = number of games played in series and “r” = average win ratio as determined by fangraphs or cairo.

That’s a pretty clever & inspired way of getting a more accurate estimate of the Sox schedule advantage than my “fly by the seat of my pants” guess.

I would say that I think you need to round the results of each series to a whole number since you can’t leave a game with .416 of a win. Using the fangraphs projections that gives 7 wins for Twins and 8 for the Sox.

I’d also say that this method could sort of reduce the effectiveness of elite teams like the Red Sox (and the Brewers, imo) who’s loss totals are inflated since they are in tougher divisions.

In the end I feel comfortable saying its more like a 1-2 game advantage for the Whities. Which is about the same advantage they had last year – so the year-over-year change is nothing.

Thanks for having a good idea Steven!

by Mr. Smokum on Mar 29, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

And we also have to factor in head to head vs. the rest of the division

One of the reason’s the Twins are usually on top is because they dominate the other teams in the division.

Since 2008:
35-20 vs. White Sox
32-22 vs. Indians
32-23 vs Tigers
37-17 vs Royals

I think that’s a big thing that has kept us above the rest of the guys in the division. If they could beat us the majority of the time, it could easily flip. All games are important, but we’ve got to make sure that they don’t gain wins off of us.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on Mar 28, 2011 6:53 PM EDT reply actions