2011 Twins Opening Day Roster Set?

Hopefully we Cuddy and Young have great offensive years to make up for their stone-like structure in the outfield. Overall I like the roster but OF scares me more than the pen.

Regressions
1. Shortstop: Casilla is a step down from Hardy, especially on the defensive side.
2. Bullpen: The bullpen is stronger at the end, but not as deep. Still, the Twins entered the season last year with Rauch as the closer and Crain, Guerrier, and Duesning as solid contributors. This year, it’s Nathan with Capps, Mijares and Slowey as solid contributors. Probably only a slight regression there.
3. Bench: Tolbert, Repko and Butera will catch the ball. Thome will hit. But it’s not a good bench.

Progressions
1. Third base: A full year of Valencia will be much better even if his rate stats regress as expected.
2. First base: Ditto. I don’t think Morneau will get it going right away. But having him in September and October will be huge. And having his defense all year is also huge.
3. Catcher: A lot of catchers wouldn’t have gutted it out through those injuries, especially the knee.
4. Right Field: Cuddyer was really hurt last year. Also, it’s a contract year for both right fielders and Kubel should progress to the mean.
5. Second base: Hudson was good. Nishioka will be better.
6. Left Field: Delmon will hit his stride this year
7. Center field: Span should progress to the mean.
8. Rotation: Baker’s and Blackburn’s health will be key.

When I look at last year’s roster, I’m amazed we won 94 games, considering health and slumps. The only guys who had career years were Delmon, Liriano, and Pavano. Delmon and Liriano have upside left.

Bullpen looks good, I think. Top 3 or 4 guys look strong, I think manship can be good, I I’m confident they’ll find guys to be decent in the other spots. Honestly it isn’t that hard for a ML pitcher to pitch decently well in low leverage innings as the 4th or 5th middle reliever in a bullpen. Nathan makes a big difference, obviously, without him the pen is only mediocre, but with him, it could be very, very solid.

Middle infield is preeeeeeetty high risk.

Twins have the starting pitching depth that would make most teams turn green with envy. That may be the biggest strength of the team outside the M&M boys.

Chicago is a lot better this year, but the Twins have a very good squad too. That is a LOT of starting pitching, and some good bats, that’s a tough combo.

I’d say the key’s for the team are:

1. Obviously Mauer’s health. No player in baseball replaces Joe, and he is just simply a huge part of the production of the team, and is payed like it. This will continue to be the #1 key for the Twins for the forseeable future.

2. The left side of the infield staying healthy and playing respectably well. The Twins can absorb injuries in the corner outfield, and even first base, with all of the shifts they can make at those positions (we saw it just last year) but there is NO contingency plan if Valencia, Casilla, or Nishioka miss substantial time, or if any of them struggle badly (Danny V sophomore slump, Casilla has struggled before, and we never can be sure how Nishi will adjust). Seriously, TOlbert is the only backup option, that’s not good. These guys have to stay on the field, and hold down their spots.

Casilla is a little…uhm…looser than Hardy, but he will be quicker on his feet meaning he should get to more balls…not a wash but not too big of a drop-off (with fingers crossed). I like that fact that we have a starting 3rd baseman, instead of, “OK, you played two games in a row, now it’s LNP’s turn and then Tolbert before you can get in another two games worth.” Getting rid of LNP actually resolves a multitude of problems—on offense and on DEFENSE! (Consistency at a position counts for a lot in my book.) Mr. Westhill (Nishioka) will be fine if he gets the necessary support from the team. Japanese players need to be supported just like other overseas players whose native language is not English. It seems like the Twins understand this well. From a baseball perspective, he will play fundamentally sound baseball and do whatever the coaches ask of him. He is probably an outstanding bunter since Japanese players learn bunting skills when they are two years old. Morneau will be fine if he doesn’t get hit in the head by a flying wombat or something.

I like AdamOnFirst feel that the injury bug is the greatest thing to be feared.

For those worried about starting pitching, we can Carlos Silva back for a lifetime supply of Big Macs and free refills on sodas (something not to be taken lightly in Japan).