The Continuing Evolution of Nick Blackburn

by Bobomojo on Apr 20, 2011 9:00 AM EDT in Player Profiles

ST PETERSBURG, FL - APRIL 15: : Pitcher Nick Blackburn #53 of the Minnesota Twins pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the game at Tropicana Field on April 15, 2011 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

In early March, Ron Gardenhire raised eyebrows when he announced Nick Blackburn would be given a rotation spot, leaving Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey to fight for the final spot on the Twins opening day starting staff.

Baker, who was the Twins 2010 Opening Day starter, and Slowey were considered by many Twins fans to be far superior pitchers to Blackburn. Fans had reason to be skeptical of Blackburn: last season, Nick sported the second highest ERA in baseball among starters with at least 160 innings pitched.

In truth, Blackburn's 2010 was a tale of two seasons. From the beginning of the season through July, Blackburn was atrocious: 104 innings, a 6.66 ERA, terrible peripherals, and a 943 OPS against. Following a well-deserved demotion, Nick came back on August 23^rd and finished the season strong: in 8 starts (and one relief appearance), he posted a 3.16 ERA, holding opposing hitters to a 622 OPS.

We know Blackburn was facing significant health issues in 2010, and is reportedly feeling better than ever after off-season elbow surgery. Nick entered the 2011 season looking to use his improved health to build off his strong finish to 2010, and, so far, the results have been pretty encouraging.

Later today, Blackburn will make his fourth start of the season. Here's a breakdown of his first three appearances:

IP	H	R	ER	K	BB	HR
5.2	6	2	1	2	1	1
6	6	1	0	2	3	0
6	10	5	5	6	0	1

As you'll recall, the five earned runs Blackburn took in his last start came after five strong, shutout innings. He gave up three runs on five hits in the 6^th, and then a single and homer when Gardenhire sent him out in the seventh. While he certainly can't be excused for the runs he allowed, his line could have looked a lot better with a little better luck or a little quicker hook.

Even with those five earned in his last start, Blackburn enters tonight's game with a 3.06 ERA, a 5.09 K/9 rate (well above his career high), and a FIP (4.08) and xFIP (3.92) far better than his career rates.

In fact, in many ways, in looks like Blackburn has picked up right where he left off last season:

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
April-Jul 2010	6.66	3.03	2.34	1.64
Aug-Sep 2010	3.16	5.21	2.05	0.95
2011	3.06	5.09	2.04	1.02

Blackburn was fooling no one in the first half of 2010, and hitters were depositing his mistakes into the bleachers at an alarming rate. Since being recalled last August, however, Nick is actually striking hitters out more frequently than he ever has in his career, and his homerun rate has dropped back to his 2008 and 2009 levels.

So how has Blackburn turned his career around from his early season struggles in 2010? Well, while I'm not enough of an expert to claim causation, Blackburn's improvement has seemed to correlate to a fairly significant change in his pitch selection.

It was well-documented that Blackburn's elbow troubles last season forced him to abandon his slider, a pitch he threw fairly frequently in 2008 and 2009. Now look at the chart below: in the first half of 2010, he made up for his inability to throw his slider by throwing far more two-seam fastballs/sinkers than he had ever thrown before.

	FB*	CH	CU	SL
2008	53.20%	9.50%	12.50%	37.30%
2009	63.70%	10.30%	8.60%	17.30%
Apr-Jul 2010	77.80%	12.10%	9.90%	0.10%
Aug-Sep 2010	69.60%	16.50%	13.20%	0.70%
2011	61.60%	23.40%	14.70%	0.40%

The 6.66 ERA he posted during that time suggests that wasn't a viable strategy

After coming back from his demotion, however, Blackburn seemed to have abandoned that approach, choosing instead to replace his lost slider with a higher percentage of changeups and curveballs, a pattern that has held true (and even grown) so far in 2011.

Again, while I won't pretend to be able to prove causation, throwing a career-high rate of change-ups and curveballs has coincided with the highest strikeout rates of Blackburn's career.

Tonight we'll have an opportunity to watch the continuing evolution of Nick Blackburn. Nine short months ago, Blackburn looked destined for the scrapheap, and his four-year, $14 million contract extension looked terribly foolish. While there is little reason to think Nick will ever be better than what we saw in 2008 and 2009, simply returning to that level would be a huge relief for the front office signing his checks, and a huge boost for a pitching staff filled with several question marks

*Note: the "FB" category encompasses all fastballs registered by PitchFX - four-seamers, two-seamers, and cutters.

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Wonderful stuff

It has been pretty clear to me that Blackburn has struggled missing bats because everything he would throw was the same speed.

Now he’s throwing more curveballs and changeups, and he’s striking batters out, and is more effective. I would expect that he won’t have quite as good of groundball rate, as its easier to hit changeups in the air, but overall he should be more effective.

It’s nice when the data validates your observations.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 20, 2011 9:43 AM EDT reply actions

Small sample size,

but Blackburn is currently posting the best groundball rate of his career. Will be interesting to see if this continues.

by Jesse on Apr 20, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Blackburn's sinker though is pretty bad.....not what it was when BA ranked him #1 in our system

I mean sure he’s got a nice 2-seamer going at 91-92

but where is that Awesome sinker at 89 or whatever we used to see…. I’m not seeing it besides maybe once or twice a start.

He is nothing more than a #5 starter to me now.

"Well Played Mauer"

Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Apr 20, 2011 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions

That picture looks like Blackburn pitching in the Metrodome.

by Jesse on Apr 20, 2011 10:02 AM EDT reply actions

On Jackie Robinson Day.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
RT @RonGarde You can Tweet that. Just Tweet it. You don't even have to write it. Just fire it through the Internet.

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Apr 20, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Were any seats that close to the field at the Metrodome?

I thought there was an 8-10 foot wall all the way around the outside of the field for football-ey type reasons, but I think I forgot everything I ever knew about that place the day Target Field opened.

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Apr 20, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions

for reference

by archie2227 on Apr 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Seats are closer at Target Field

The reason for this was because the bullpens were in foul territory at the dome.

by Jessy S on Apr 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

No, that can't be it...

Way too full

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Apr 20, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That dome pic

either has to be one of the afternoon games of the Kansas City series (last one in the dome) or game 3 of the 2009 ALDS vs the Yankees. Guessing it is the latter because the Vikings have their bunting up in that pic.

by Jessy S on Apr 20, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

I think that pic was taken in Tampa

by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on Apr 20, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

It likely is

That is where Nick had his last start.

by Jessy S on Apr 20, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe people should have read the caption under the photo.

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Apr 20, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

DOH!

by Jessy S on Apr 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

If I recall correctly

Blackburn pitched well for a bit early last season after some time off for personal reasons. In any event, he still managed a quality start in over half his starts last season, which is why I think Gardy loves him.

by Gunnarthor on Apr 20, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

He never really pitched "well" last year until after his stint in the minors

Strikeouts aren’t everything, but he was WAY below an acceptable rate, and wasn’t exactly Tim Hudson when it came to ground balls. He was able to get by for a while early in the season, but these problems were season long.

Not to toot my own horn, but I was on the “blackburn is about to implode” bandwagon well before he actually did. IIRC, Montana and I were had a long discourse on the subject.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 20, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I hate it so much when people say "not to do this...."

Then do exactly that.

Like saying “not to be racist, but (something racist)”
or
“I know its a small sample size, but (conclusion based on small sample.”

So I’ll call myself out for doing it there. I just tooted my own horn, and enjoyed it quite a lot.

Yes, Yes, I know. That’s what she (he?) said.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 20, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn't Blackburn win Pitcher of the Month for May and June last year?

Or April/May? Either way, he was pitching very well early on.

WordUpThome: OUR COMPTROLLER OF SECOND BASE AFFAIRS HAS BEEN HIT IN THE SHINJO BY A METEOR
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by fischean on Apr 20, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Could've been

I just checked his game logs – he was pretty bad in April, but he went 5-0 (all quality starts) with a 2.65 ERA in May before falling apart in June.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 20, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

If your definition of "pitching well" is "not allowing many earned runs"

then yes, he had a good May. And frankly, its really semantics anyway.

You could say that he was pitching well, but his peripherals showed that he probably wasn’t going to be able to continue pitching well.

I would say that he wasn’t pitching well at all, he just had balls bouncing his way for a month.

Blackburn had a 2.4 k/9 in May of 2010. Only one pitcher in the last 20 years has thrown 100 innings witha k/9 that low. Why? Because its impossible to continually get major league hitters out without striking any of them out.

Again, if you want to say that Blackburn pitched well in May, that’s fine, I’m not going to disagree with you. But the problems he had last year (not striking anyone out) were just as prevalent in May as they were in any other month.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 20, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

He might have had problems with strikeouts

But the fact remains is that Nick Blackburn had a great month of May. Yes he isn’t Cy Young material, but I’ll take five quality starts in one month with a 5-0 record over what Captain Cheeseburger and King Felix can do any day. It isn’t that I am putting down both players, but a pitcher who produces groundball outs is just as effective as strikeout kings.

The only difference here is that we aren’t used to seeing Blackie striking out hitters more often.

by Jessy S on Apr 20, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

Whether or not he’s a good pitcher is always going to be debated. People have been claiming he’d fail since 08 and were more than happy to pounce last year. The fact remains his game results have often times been better than people want to acknowledge. Whether we want to say it’s b/c he’s pitching in a friendly environment or credit the defense behind him or say its luck, he’s shown an ability to give the team a quality start in well over half his starts (league avg is 49%). Slowey, who seems to be the opposite end of this, can get pretty rate stats and few quality starts. The Twins seem to favor results over stats.

by Gunnarthor on Apr 20, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

The main point of what I was trying to say back then

was that he wasn’t pitching like normal in May. He usually doesn’t get many strikeouts. At that time, he had a HISTORICALLY low strikeout rate. Blackburn may be one of the few pitchers who can out pitch his peripherals. But no one can outpitch 2.4 k/9.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 22, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure I'm capable of a long discourse.

At least not an intelligent one.

There are only so many voice inflections for the word “baaaah” …

How come you never see the headline "Psychic wins lottery"?

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 20, 2011 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Up to you if you think it's intelligent or not...

but here it is

Yes, I did just spend the last 10 minutes looking for that. Yes, I do have better things to do.

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Apr 20, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

huh.

funny thing is in this thread I wasn’t even disagreeing with you at all. I was simply making a joke at my own expense.

toot, toot sir. toot, toot.

How come you never see the headline "Psychic wins lottery"?

by montanatwinsfan on Apr 20, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

NickKKK Blackburn

I wish. My 2 cents I think a lot of people over reacted to horrible half season last year vs. looking at his career. To me 2 years and a solid finish to his 2010 campaign meant more to me than a few awful months in which now we know he was obviously injured thus throwing no sliders.

I’m not expecting him to be an Ace but I think a return to roughly 4.00 ERA and 200 IP could reasonably be expected. I hope he continues to pitch like he has for the bulk of his career.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Apr 20, 2011 6:38 PM EDT reply actions