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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Jason Kubel vs. Mariano Rivera

Perhaps Jason Kubel's finest big league moment: a game-winning grand slam off of Mariano Rivera last May.

Given all the wonderful things to talk about from last night's game, it sure feels strange to be writing about a single at-bat that turned out to have zero impact on the game's outcome.

In the ninth inning of last night's glorious victory over the Yankees, with the Twins having just tied the game during a dramatic eighth inning rally, Jason Kubel stepped in against Mariano Rivera and delivered a lead-off single.  As I said, the hit turned out to have no impact on the outcome of the game - Danny Valencia, Justin Morneau, and Matt Tolbert were quickly retired after Kubel's single - but it was a pretty significant hit in terms of win expectancy, shifting the odds of a Twins' victory from a coin flip to a 60% favorite.

While it didn't impact the outcome of the game, that at-bat did give us a chance to see another chapter in what has been, for my money, one of the more oddly fascinating hitter-pitcher match-ups in baseball.  While they've only squared off 12 times since the Twins outfielder entered the league in 2004, Kubel and Rivera's relationship has been filled with a remarkable amount of drama.

Continued after the jump.

Star-divide

For Kubel, Mariano Rivera has been on the mound for what were, arguably, both his best and his most embarrassing moments at the plate.

The best is obvious: it came during last year's version of the impossible-to-believe, early-season, late-inning, come-from-behind Twins victory over the hated Yankees.  During a mid-May game at Yankee Stadium, Kubel delivered a two-out, eighth-inning grand slam off of Rivera to end the Twins 12-game losing streak against the Evil Empire.  As Kubel said at the time, "This might be the biggest hit I ever got."

Kubel's lowest moment came six years earlier.  While Jason was just 22, he put together an impressive 67 plate appearances during a September call-up, and earned himself a spot on the Twins playoff roster.  The Twins won Game One, and mounted an impressive comeback late in Game Two.  The Twins tied the game in the top of the eighth, and had runners on second and third with just one out. A single could have given the Twins a two-run lead, and, perhaps, a two games to none lead over the Yankees.

Kubel was due up, and the 22-year old dug in against the greatest postseason reliever in the history of the game.  The result was, perhaps, predictable.  But it was still excruciating to watch.  Rivera threw three pitches, moving up the ladder each time.  The third pitch, as I recall, was at or above eye level.  Kubel swung wildly, clearly (and understandably) overmatched by Rivera.  The sequence lasted just seconds, but the memory of Kubel flailing wildly at Rivera's cutters stuck in Twins fans' memories for years.

After Kubel's strikeout, Christian Guzman tapped back to Rivera, and the rally was over.  The Twins lost the game in the twelfth, and went on to drop games three and four, losing the series three games to one.  In fact, the Twins haven't won a postseason game since that night.

Kubel being overmatched by Rivera in the postseason certainly wasn't limited to 2004.  Kubel has faced Mo three times in the postseason, and has struck out in all three at-bats.

But don't let that fool you.  Believe it or not, Jason Kubel has been one of Mariano Rivera's toughest outs in his Hall of Fame career.  The following chart shows the hitters with the highest OPS against Rivera (minimum 10 plate appearances):

 

PA 

AB 

2B 

3B 

HR 

BB 

BA 

OBP 

SLG 

OPS 

Edgar Martinez

23

19

11

3

0

2

3

0.579

0.652

1.053

1.705

Sandy Alomar

13

13

6

2

0

1

0

0.462

0.462

0.846

1.308

Aubrey Huff

21

20

8

2

0

2

1

0.400

0.429

0.800

1.229

Jason Kubel

12

11

5

0

0

1

1

0.455

0.500

0.727

1.227

Magglio Ordonez

15

14

7

2

0

0

1

0.500

0.533

0.643

1.176

Paul Sorrento

13

9

4

1

0

0

4

0.444

0.615

0.556

1.171

Jose Guillen

11

10

3

0

1

1

0

0.300

0.364

0.800

1.164

Mo Vaughn

13

12

5

0

0

1

1

0.417

0.462

0.667

1.128

Damion Easley

11

9

3

0

0

1

1

0.333

0.455

0.667

1.121

Paul Konerko

14

12

5

0

0

1

1

0.417

0.429

0.667

1.095

That's right: over Mariano Rivera's 17-year career, he's faced 171 batters at least 10 times.  Only three of those hitters have posted a higher OPS against him than Kubel.  And, yes, these numbers do include Kubel's three postseason strikeouts against Rivera.  His regular season line against Mo, in nine PAs, is .625/.667/1.000. 

If I was a better storyteller, I'd write something here about Kubel taking out his revenge on Rivera for the embarrassment he suffered during that fateful at-bat in the 2004 ALDS.  Instead, I'm content to reflect on the numbers, and the compelling storyline that has developed between an all-time great and an ultimately forgettable corner outfielder.  A storyline that was continued last night, though overshadowed by a much more important Twins victory.

Comment 24 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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Love it.

Good to see the bearded one perform well against such an elite closer. Still smile big thinking back to last May.

by twinpirate326 on Apr 6, 2011 9:22 AM EDT reply actions  

Something different.

Good stuff, Beau. I know this matchup has intrigued you for a long time.

by Jesse on Apr 6, 2011 9:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Approach

The sample is still too small to invest too heavily, but Kubel clearly has a better thought-out plan against Mariano than any hitter the Twins have. Essentially he’s looking for the cutter and expecting it to deceive him. It’s almost like he’s purposely trying to hit the ball off the end of the bat. When it cuts in on a left handed hitter like Kubel, the fat part of the barrel is right there for it. Kubel told Dick and Bert after Monday’s game that he was a little surprised that Mariano tried to keep him off-balance with two-seamers instead cutters in his plate appearance. That’s some respect.

by TMW on Apr 6, 2011 9:55 AM EDT reply actions  

I seem to remember a game at the Metrodome in 2009..

Where Delmon Young hit a 3 run game tying homer off of Rivera. The Twins ended up losing that game anyways, but when Delmon comes to the plate against him in big situations it’s always in the back of my mind.

by revengeska on Apr 6, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions  

That Must be

Why Girardi didn’t bring Rivera up to face Young in last night’s game. Seriously, the folks at Pinstripe Alley do want to fire him after what happened last night given that it is only a five game sample size amounting to 3% of the season. I wrote a fanshot on that subject for our reaction and comments.

by Jessy S on Apr 6, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw that post too..

Sounds completely ridiculous that they’re blaming Girardi for the loss and not the 3 walks in the 8th.

by revengeska on Apr 6, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why was Soriano in in the first place?

He pitched the night before. The Yankees had a 4 run lead in the 8th. I think Ayala or Robertson make more sense than your #2 reliever when you could rest and use him in a potentially closer game.

by TMW on Apr 6, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

ahhh 2004

corey koskie ground rule double, the rest is history.. :(

"Wes [Johnson] is old, passive, and below-average in every aspect of his game except outside shooting and smiling" - PoorDick

by GWST11 on Apr 6, 2011 10:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Good review

But is Kubel nothing more than a “forgettable corner outfielder”?

The beard abides.

by Jason Kubel's Beard on Apr 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions  

Maybe not to Twins fans

But to the rest of the baseball world, I’d say yes. A no-glove corner outfielder with a career OPS+ of 111 (even before hitting his decline phase)? Yeah, that’s pretty forgettable.

by Bobomojo on Apr 6, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

Guys who you stumble upon a baseball card 10 years later and say, "Oh, yeah, that guy!"

From a stack of cards sitting by my desk:

Bernard Gilkey
Tom Brookens (although he is more notable thanks to RBI Baseball and a great mustache)
Tom Pagnozzi
Glenn Davis

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Apr 6, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

All I know

Is that Kubel isn’t going to make the hall of fame, and that is fine with me because he will likely be a member of the 2011 World Champion Twins.

by Jessy S on Apr 6, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

It only takes one hit to be immortalized

2011 World Series Game 7 game winning home run

There – I called it.

The beard abides.

by Jason Kubel's Beard on Apr 6, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

It doesn't have to be a home run in Game 7

Kirk Gibson did it in Game one of the 1988 Series.

by Jessy S on Apr 6, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

When we finally face the White Sux

I propose an analysis of Michael Cuddyer and John Danks

by Sportsavenue on Apr 6, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Kubel likes dramatic grand slams

It seems like once or twice a year, Jason Kubel hits a dramatic grand slam. Last year, it was against the Yanks. The year before, he had that slam to complete the cycle and like a 5-run comeback vs Kansas City.

Whenever Kubel comes to the plate with the bases loaded in the late innings of a close game, I expect something good to happen.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on Apr 6, 2011 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

OT: heads up

Obviously weekday noon games are tough for most people to make, but there are some great deals on Stubhub for next Wednesday vs the Royals. Just scooped Legends Club for $35.

by archie2227 on Apr 6, 2011 1:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Kuboom

I was visiting my brother in NY last may and decided on getting tickets for the Sunday game. I’ll never forget the crack of the bat and how silent yankee stadium was as Kubel’s ball disappeared into the crowd in right field. I couldn’t control myself as Kubes rounded the bases. I was screaming out all my hatred for the yankees, forgetting where I was momentarily. When I finally sat down and cooled off I could hear all the yankee fans talking shit about our record against them. I told them it was my first time in this stadium so 1-0 was good for me. Thank god Rauch was able to close out the game and I was able to leave in one piece. I was hoping that grand slam was going to give us some confidence and change our luck against the yankees but I guess we’re still waiting on it.

by MadHits on Apr 6, 2011 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Nothing is forgettable in the age of the internet

Kubel may always be “that one guy” to most fans, but he has offered the Twins more memorable summer nights than any other Twin I can think of post-2002. And who knows what other magic he has up his sleeve? The Twins live by the Kubel, or die by the Kubel, and althought that can be good or bad, it means something.

Plus, who can really be forgotten when websites about the guy will live on forever?
www.theunoseis.com

by Erik Bergstrom on Apr 6, 2011 3:57 PM EDT reply actions  

He's had 2 or 3

Thome might have as many memorable moments as Kubel has.

He probably could have many more if he wasn’t a liability in the field.

by #8 guy on Apr 6, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

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