A Mauer-sized hole in the lineup
by Bobomojo on May 11, 2011 9:00 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
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The worst offense in baseball.
More than 20% of the way into the 2011 season, and the Minnesota Twins, sporting the biggest payroll in team history, currently have the worst offense in baseball.
Don't worry, I'm not going to provide another gut wrenching look at how bad the Twins offense has been during the first weeks of the season. BeefMaster handled that task on Monday.
And I'm not going to rehash all the reasons for the Twins offensive woes. Everyone here understands how injuries have decimated the lineup, forcing us to lead the league in guys named Rene while finishing dead last in nearly every meaningful offensive category.
I do, however, want to make a pretty simple point: there is nothing hurting this offense more than the absence of a healthy Joe Mauer.
I know that's not a groundbreaking statement. Mauer is the cornerstone of the franchise and the team's highest-paid player. Stats as simple as batting average and as complex as Wins Above Replacement all agree: Joe Mauer is good at baseball.
But I do believe that some fans don't fully comprehend how important a healthy Mauer is to the Twins everyday lineup and what role his bad health and absence has played in our team's inability to score runs this season.
We'll take a closer look after the jump.
The Twins offense has finished in the top five in runs scored among American League teams for each of the past three years.
|
Runs Scored |
AL Rank |
|
|
2008 |
829 |
3 |
|
2009 |
817 |
4 |
|
2010 |
781 |
5 |
Obviously Joe Mauer played a big role in rejuvenating a once-embarrassing Twins offense. How big? Well, here's a chart that shows how many runs Joe created above a replacement-level catcher during the past three seasons (as measured by Baseball-Reference.com's Offensive Runs Above Replacement).
|
oRAR |
|
|
2008 |
76 |
|
2009 |
76 |
|
2010 |
53 |
Now, using those two data sets, let's revisit the 2008, 2009, and 2010 seasons, replacing Mauer with a replacement-level catcher in the Twins lineup.
|
Adj. Runs Scored |
Adj. AL Rank |
|
|
2008 |
753 |
10 |
|
2009 |
741 |
T-10 |
|
2010 |
728 |
8 |
Even if we take some of these advanced measurements with a grain of salt, Mauer's impact on the lineup is clear. With Mauer, the Twins featured one of the top offenses in the American League. Just taking his bat out of the lineup would have left the team with a decidedly below-average offense, even with players like Justin Morneau, Jason Kubel, and Michael Cuddyer.
We're now seeing this situation play out in the first weeks of the 2011 season. To date, Twins catchers have been eight runs below replacement level, combining to hit .143/.195/.176. For reference, National League pitchers have combined to hit .133/.159/.167 this season.
It's clear that Mauer is the lynchpin of the Twins offense, and his absence is the single biggest (but far from only) reason for the Twins offensive struggles this year. While this would be true even if the Twins had a capable replacement, the dismal lack of production from Drew Butera, Steve Holm, and Rene Rivera simply underscores Mauer's importance to the team.
Thankfully, Mauer reported that he's feeling "a lot better" and is engaging in "baseball activities," although the team has yet to present a timetable for his return. The team seems committed to waiting until he's 100% healthy and able to return to catching before activating him. As fans, all we can do is wait and pray, because it's awfully hard to see how this team turns it around until Joe is back and healthy.
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Yeah,
replacing the worst player in the league (more or less) with the best player in the league (more or less) is a good first step at improving this team. The trick was just not to allow too much damage to happen while Mauer was away, not that we could actually be good without him. Unfortunately, there’s been, uh, plenty of damage.
We miss Joe, I hope he's back soon.
It would be great if he came back like he did after missing a month in 2009.
Justin Morneau back to his old slugging self would help a lot too.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Somewhere Nick Punto is giggliing and storking his unicorn’s mane" -Twinsgirl197
by less cowbell, more 'neau on May 11, 2011 9:12 AM EDT reply actions
Pretty sad state of affairs.
Most of the starters have fallen ill and had a months-long extended spring training, others are drastically underperforming, and the front office had a poor to mediocre off-season.
This is why the "Cuddyer for MVP" discussion was so stupid
Mauer is clearly the team MVP. His defense is better than Butera’s also.
The next step toward winning is replacing this year’s Justin Morneau with a previous year’s version of Justin Morneau.
by DJL44 on May 11, 2011 9:47 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
…and then replacing Tosoni with Delmon.
…Casilla with Nishioka.
…Kubel and Thome taking ABs from non-Delmon outfielders
…replacing some significant chunk of pitching suckage with Slowey.
…then doing the same with Gibson
Then getting ready for next year because it will be too little too late. But hopefully it gets fun again before the season’s over even if we don’t make it into the division hunt.
Too Little Too Late?
I don’t think it is. Right now, yes, the Twins lie 9.5 game back of Cleveland, but I only consider them 6.5 game out of first. The Indians will fade. Their team is too young and inexperienced. The Twins are 6.5 games behind Detroit, who I think is the only team (other than the twins) who will end the season with a winning record. Here are some reasons I think the Twins will still win the central…
- - 12 – that’s the number of home games the twins have had, meaning 23 on the road. Which means we have 69 home games and only 58 away games left. Detroit on the other hand has had 16 home games. The extra 4 home games we have is worth 2 extra wins in my opinion…. 4.5 back.
- - AL East. WE ARE DONE WITH GAMES ON THE EAST COAST. As much as we think the Twins are an elite team, it doesn’t get any harder than having to play on the road against the East. We’ve played 21 games against the over spending juggernauts, while Detroit has only played 14. So Detroit has to play 7 more games against the east than us, and we get to play 10 more games than them against the weak West. The schedule difficulty from here on out is worth at least another 4 wins in our favor….. 1/2 game back.
- - Injuries. The fact that the twins are playing .375 ball with their minor league system (basically) isn’t as bad as one would think. Getting Mauer, Delmon (admit it, you never thought you would miss Delmon) Nishi, and Thome back is HUGE. I absolutely believe that Mauer calling games behind the plate reduces our pitchers ERA and gives them confidence. Franky will come around, as will Pavano. Baker hasn’t been awful, Blackburn either. but if any of them can’t do it, Slowey is right there, waiting in the wings. Duensing is our ace I guess, by process of elimination. Getting our players back is the key to this years success.
In closing, I’d like to ask what you think will win the central this year? 92? 94 wins? If you said 94 (and you are probably pretty close) that would mean that the twins would need to go 82-45 (.645) the rest of the way. That is not out of the question for this team.
Not out of the question
but getting less likely each day they don’t have Mauer. By the time Mauer returns they may need to play .700 ball the rest of the way.
Actually it isn't stupid
I actually commend Michael Cuddyer for playing the field, AKA, playing out of position. I actually think he could pitch an inning if asked.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
It was insulting to Joe Mauer
The Twins would not have won the division without Mauer in 2010. They would have been just fine if they had lost Michael Cuddyer. Instead of Gardy trying to pump up one of his get-after-it scrubs I’d love to hear him say “Joe is a fantastic ballplayer, does everything you could ever ask offensively and defensively plus he’s a great leader. Of course he’s the MVP of this team.”
by DJL44 on May 11, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm glad you brought the hitting lines
for NL pitchers into the equation. Because that kind of drivevs a point home to be, in terms of really HOW BAD the catching has been.
If only you could DH for the catcher
It’s reached the point where I actually checked the MLB rule book to see if it’s legal to DH for a position player. Unfortunately, unlike at some lower levels of baseball, the designated hitter rule in MLB only applies to the pitcher, per rule 6.10(b)(1):
A hitter may be designated to bat for the starting pitcher and all subsequent
pitchers in any game without otherwise affecting the status of the pitcher(s) in
the game.
I read through the rest of rule 6.10, and there does not appear to be any provision to designate a hitter for a non-pitcher.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
If we could DH for the catcher
Then we would be happy for Drew Butera because of his defense.
Seriously, “Less Cowbell’ more’neau” has a fanshot from Lookout Landing on the issue. No wonder why Carl Pavano trusts him.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
Bigger hole is defensive
Butera sucks in both phases of the game. The other night, he threw towards second and it ended up being scooped up by the left fielder. Not center. Left.
One of my pet peeves is when a catcher creeps up in front of the plate waiting for a throw, and then has to reach back to tag the runner who inevitably slides by. Harper used to do this and it drove me crazy, especially in Atlanta in 91. Butera did that last night. The next pitch was a passed ball. Two runs that would not have scored if he had his head in the game.
Then there’s the maddening inconsistency of the pitching staff. Why? Ever notice how Mauer quietly gets the pitcher to throw in on the hands at least once per at bat? Butera doesn’t do this. So you have the game were Pavano was hitting his spots down and away on the black and the Red Sox were pounding it off the left field wall in Fenway. Or the start where Liriano was hitting the same spot and the Royals were just leaning out and poking it the other way, over and over and over.
In the starts when Liriano is effective, he shakes Butera off at least five times an inning. Butera comes out to chat sometimes. Liriano is firm. Next pitch, strike out or weak grounder. But the pitching coach doesn’t want Liriano to shake Drew off. So you have starts like last night.
Butera is not an every day catcher. He’s OK once a week. But when he gets fatigued, all his weaknesses come out. He hits a lot less than even his meager hitting as a bench player. He makes fielding errors. And he calls a crappy game.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 11, 2011 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Butera has never done anything to win a major league job
But he’s been handed one. That is a management failure. Ditto with Casilla.
by DJL44 on May 11, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
+1
You could say Butera was only handed the backup job, but I think (1) backing up Mauer at catcher is more serious than your average backup job and (2) he didn’t even prove himself to be ready for an MLB backup job.
Butera's OPS+ of -18
currently ranks him 6th worst all-time among catchers who played at least 50% of their games behind the plate and got at least 67 plate appearances. If he gets to 75 plate appearances with that OPS+ he’ll be 3rd worst. If he reaches 96 plate appearances he’ll be 2nd worst. And if he gets to 101 plate appearances he’ll be the worst hitting catcher of all time.
Also,
Michael Cuddyer has driven in only 1 of the 77 runners who have been on base when he batted. Only 2 of those runners have scored, for a rate of 3%. His career average is 15%
Time to swallow your pride, Joe
This team is sliding fast and in sore need of something good to happen. Throw out the fact you are one of the best hitters in baseball. If you can come back and “just DH,” DO IT FOR THE SAKE OF THE TEAM!
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
Did you read the article?
The whole point is that a large part of his value is the fact that he’s replacing terrible catchers.
If he comes back and DHs, the effect will be much smaller. We have guys that can DH effectively – Kubel, Thome when healthy.
What we don’t have is someone who can even hit at a Nick Punto level playing Catcher.
This isn’t a pride thing. I really don’t think the Twins are trying to turn him into a DH but he’s refusing. Mauer is so valuable in part BECAUSE he plays such a demanding position. Stints on the Disable list are part of the deal.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on May 11, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't read the article, no
I get what you are saying; I simply am making an emotional statement that something is better than nothing at this point.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
But if Mauer blows his knees out by catching...
…then shouldn’t we place him somewhere else than catcher? I’m not saying DH but some other position. We are paying for many years after all.
His next best position is 3B
He can’t play middle infield or CF, the next most amount of value you’ll get is at third. Mauer is a good enough athlete to play 3B.
Are you sure?
Third base is a nasty position. Is Mauer willing to put in the hours and hours to master it like Corey Koskie did? Thousands of ground balls?
What are the other options?
He’s probably not quick enough to play shortstop or second base, and those would require an even larger amount of work on fundamentals in order to be competent. That leaves first base and outfield. He almost certainly lacks the range for center, and while he’s like quick enough to be a competent left or right fielder, again there’s lots of work on learning routes and reading fly balls off the bat that would be required. I hear the Twins already have a pretty good defensive first baseman.
It also helps, from a value perspective, that third is the corner position that generally demands the least offense. Right fielders, left fielders, and first basemen are generally offense-first players, and that’s where it’s usually easiest to find good hitters. It’s much harder to find a good-hitting third baseman.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Maybe you're right...
but how many 6’5" third basemen have there been?
It would be a cringe-inducing transition, imho.
Huh
“I hear the Twins already have a pretty good defensive first baseman.”
Quick, somebody better tell Justin Morneau that another guy is gunning for his position.
I’d take anybody who can scoop a low throw in a late inning. Morneau certainly has been good (great…excellent…) in the past, but he’s not shown anything near that level of play in any aspect of his game since missing time due to his concussion. I’d welcome Justin focusing solely on hitting for awhile and Joe taking reps at 1B when he returns…well, aside from the obvious black-hole of suck currently occupying our catcher position.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on May 12, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Butera
I know he is well-paid, but after that pathetic-looking strikeout last night I really felt for him. He had this beaten look on his face like he knew he had no business in the big leagues, and he had to walk back to face his teammates. If you’ve ever played ball before, you know that stroll back to the dugout when you’ve just been overmatched, with the feeling of helplessness and the hope that someone can help you, is a straight-up walk of shame.
The same could be said for Tolbert. You think a guy with a drive like that is sleeping at night? He’s reliving every single at-bat all night long. Hell, I am still haunted by an at-bat I had from LAST JUNE in a SOFTBALL game.
It's a brutally tough game.
I think it’s really easy to forget how good players who “suck” really are. I’d never accuse a borderline guy of slacking—when you’re on the bubble of MLB you have every incentive to work like a madman. For most of them, it’s just a cruel question of whether, even at their best, they’re good enough.
That's why I like sports...
it may be one of the last institutions where merit almost always trumps. Which is the maddening part of handing Casilla a jobs that he did not earn.
It really brings out how much Mauer is a crutch.
Because he’s so good, he can cover up the failures of management or the front office in stocking the roster. But when he’s not there, well it comes out into the open how mediocre Bill Smith is at his job.
The Catching Black Hole
WHY don’t they trade for a decent backup catcher? Butera and the two minor leaguers are an automatic ‘Out’ when they come to the plate. This is especially critical considering the fragile history of Jolt’n Joe.
What would you do with the rest of your life if you knew that you could not fail?
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