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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Fleeting Confidence

I know it's not terribly original to post about "doom and gloom" fan pessimism, but I don't really care at this point.  I am a notoriously optimistic fan, you see.  I'm generally the one in my group of friends who is saying, "Just be patient.  The Twins always play better after the All-Star break."  You need to understand that I'm not used to losing confidence like this, and especially not THIS EARLY.

A week ago, I felt comfortable in my optimistic wait-and-see approach.  Yes, the Twins were still 3 games below .500, but they had just won 2 over the (division leading) Indians, and held a nice 3-1 record against the rest of the AL Central.  As bad as it was, it wan't that bad.  Things were going to swing for the positive.

Then this last week happened.

Star-divide

The sweep at the hands of the Rays, terrible as it was, was still not enough to break me.  After all, teams can struggle outside of their division and still turn things around.  Changes need to be made (and soon), but as long as we can play well against our division opponents, we can mostly control our own destiny.  Right?

Friday's loss by Casilla the Twins made it extrememly obvious that changes have to happen right now, and the blowout losses Saturday and Sunday were overkill.  The Twins just got swept in epic fashion by a reeling Royals team that didn't HOLD A LEAD in the 6-game losing streak heading into the series.  This is beyond terrible.  You had to go into the series thinking the Twins were catching Kansas City at the exact right time.  Three games later the Royals look like ther Yankees, and the Twins now have the worst record in baseball.  It's just shocking.  The words "rock bottom" spring to mind.

The Twins can't hit, can't pitch, can't field, and can't wipe their own asses... This is starting to sound like a Strib comment, but you get the idea.  It's been over a decade since the Twins have looked this bad.  Hell, even in the lean years of the 90's, there was always something good to say about the team.  I can't remember a time where there have been so many glaring flaws.  We have players in key roles that aren't fit to be on any major league roster.

I know teams generally wait until about mid May to think about roster changes, but I don't see how the Twins can wait that long.  Even if the Twins somehow go 7-4 over the next 2 weeks, their record will still be a dismal 16-22.  -And there's no way the Twins will play that well with their current roster.

I have no idea what the Twins can do to turn it around in 2011.  Trade Young/Kubel for a decent missel infielder and/or a couple of decent bullpen arms?  I feel like just about any change would be an improvement.  When your lineup has 2 or 3 players hitting below .200 and multiple pitchers with ERAs of 10+, it's not difficult to find upgrades.  That much is certain.  Still, even if Bill Smith makes all the right moves from here on out, upgrading to the point of having a legitimate chance to win the division might not be possible.

The one saving grace for the Twins is that they have yet to play the Tigers or White Sox, both of which have also been pretty terrible so far.  85 wins could take the AL Central, so maybe it's not 100% impossible.  We just need to rob some teams blind in a few trades.  And have Joe Mauer come back and hit like it's 2009.  And have Liriano remember that he's a major leaguer.  And have Casilla die of dysentery while playing Oregon Trail after he is sent down to play T-Ball for Parkview Elementary...  And then a miracle happens.

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Lots of ifs....

Doesn’t look good. A complete implosion of what used to be a great team. Can we turn it around? Sure, I guess. It’s baseball, anything can happen. But let’s be realistic. We need to absolutely dominate in order to make up this deficit and right now we just don’t have the pieces.

It’s like a chess game where you’ve lost your queen, a rook, a bishop and both knights while the other player has only lost a pawn. Sure, you could still win but it’s going to take a huge stroke of fortune on your part, and some incredible F-ups by your opponent.

The beard abides.

by Jason Kubel's Beard on May 2, 2011 4:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Luckily, all the "top competition" in our division is below .500

The AL Central standings look upside-down right now, which is good for us given our record. I would feel a lot worse if the White Sox were 19-8 and the Indians were 10-19. I expect the Indians and Royals to fall off at some point, but I also expect the White Sox to get it together as well.

The Twins are better than this, too. It’ll just require some changes combined with players getting healthy to show it. I do expect the Twins to play better baseball at some point, but I’m not convinced this team can even make it back to .500 this season.

This series against Chicago is far more important than an early May series should be.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on May 2, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

The Royals and Indians are very young teams, at some point this season (possibly very soon) they’re going to hit a wall, and their youth and inexperience will rear it’s ugly head.
The Tigers, Twins, and White Sox are loaded with veterans that have done this playoff race thingy before, and it will turn out to be the three team race we expected at the beginning of the year. And based on past experience, I’d put my money on the Twins.

Minnesota Wild 2011: Don't even bother, unless you like booing.

by NorthernStar on May 2, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't go that far...

Chances are between the Royals and the Indians, one of them will stick around all season and contend for a division title. As for which one that will be… Your guess is as good as mine.

On a similar yet opposite note. Chances are either the Twins or the White Sox will not recover from a terrible start. One of the two will likely be dismantling and building for 2012 come mid-June. Again, it could be either. As for the Tigers, they’re off to a slow start, but 12-17 looks awfully good to me right now (sad as it sounds). I would also give them a 50/50 shot of playing meaningful baseball in September.

This division is just a crap shoot of mediocre teams. It’s not out of the question for the division winner to have a losing record.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on May 2, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

My money would be on the Indians

They have multiple legitimate star position players, youth, and they simply aren’t playing any total losers. That’s basically the trick: whichever team plays the fewest pure scrubs is probably going to win. the Indians have pretty questionable pitching, but so far it’s worked out.

by Luke in MN on May 3, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not gonna lie

It’s been hard to remain optimistic as a Twins fan. It almost to the point (key word: almost) that I’m tuning into the games just to see how miserably the Twins lose. It’s like a car accident: I don’t want to look, but I’m compelled to, just to see how bad it is.

by leo3375 on May 2, 2011 11:18 PM EDT reply actions  

I don't know what the pitching will do

but I have a hard time believing that the offense will be this bad. I have a hard time believing Valencia, Cuddyer, Morneau, Thome, Young and Mauer will all be low .200’s for 162 games. I just don’t see it happening.

It pretty much has to improve, unless they all are gone from injury for most of the season. Sure, a few of them are likely to struggle, I don’t think that’s impossible. I just find it impossible for all of them to hit no more than a .230 average. Not if they are healthy.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on May 3, 2011 8:36 PM EDT reply actions  

"We'll see you tomorrow night"

That’s one of the things that I love (and also drives me crazy) about baseball — there’s always “tomorrow night”. Each day is a new day, with a plethora of new opportunities. Who knows, maybe tomorrow’s the game where that pitcher with the 9.xx ERA will throw a no-hitter! (Nah, that’d never happen)

by gbg on May 4, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

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