Why is This the Worst Pitching Staff in Major League Baseball?
by Adam Peterson on May 24, 2011 9:59 AM EDT
in By the Numbers
Email
Print
The numbers are ugly, and it doesn't matter if we're talking about ERA (4.95, worst in MLB by nearly a quarter run) or fielding independent metrics (4.57 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, both worst in MLB). A team simply isn't going to win many games with this kind of performance on the mound, even with an above average offense. Which it goes without saying we have not seen this season. But what's behind this huge drop-off in performance, especially given pretty much the same pitchers in the rotation? In order to help answer this question, I have collected copious amounts of Pitch F/X data to attempt to determine whether there has been a change in approach, skill, or if a regression to the mean may be in order. It's going to take a while to go through all of this 2010 and 2011 data, but after the jump I'll let you know what I've found.
1. Throwing Strikes
This one has been painfully obvious. In 2010, the Twins pitching staff was best in MLB at avoiding the free pass, allowing only 2.37 walks per nine innings. This was a full 0.2 walks below the second best team (Philadelphia), and almost a half a walk per game below the second best in the AL, Seattle with 2.83 BB/9. Since the Twins don't tend to strike out many hitters (6.49 strikeouts per nine innings was 26th in MLB last year), limiting walks is a key to success.
This season, the walks have come early and often, as the Twins are second worst in MLB, giving up 3.77 walks per nine innings. It's not as bad as the Chicago Cubs MLB-worst 4.08 walks, but it's a huge increase from last season. Add in a reduction in strikeout rate (down to 5.86 per nine innings), and you get a recipe for disaster. In fact, simply plugging the difference in strikeout and walk rates into the standard calculation of fielding independent pitching (FIP), we get an increase of 0.61 runs per nine innings to the Twins FIP, just about the entire difference between last year's 3.91 FIP (9th in MLB) and this year's 4.57 FIP (worst in MLB).
So we know the Twins pitchers have been walking a lot more and striking out fewer batters this season. As I noted above, I am analyzing Pitch F/X data from the 2010 and 2011 seasons to look at the Twins strike throwing in more detail, including pitch type, location within (and outside) the strike zone, and batted balls given a pitch location. In order to examine pitch location, I split up the strike zone into a three-by-three grid, similar to what one sees in batter's heat maps showing where he likes pitches, etc. As far as throwing strikes is concerned, the Twins haven't seen much of a drop-off since last season. Using the raw Pitch F/X data from MLB's Gameday site, I have calculated the number of strikes, similar to ZONE% one might find on Fangraphs. I can't speak in detail to how ZONE% is calculated, but I suspect the minor differences between my numbers and ZONE% may be due to my accounting for the width of the baseball, if any part of the baseball touches the strike zone I consider the pitch to be a strike.
| Year | Strike Zone % | MLB Rank |
| 2010 | 50.41% | 2 |
| 2011 | 50.19% | 7 |
As the table above shows, the Twins pitchers have thrown slightly fewer pitches within the strike zone, but not to the point where one would expect an MLB-worst walk rate. The Twins have fallen five places to #7 in MLB at throwing strikes. This is due to pitchers across MLB throwing more strikes (about 1% more) this season, up to an average of 48.47% this season compared to 47.44% in 2010.
2. Umpires Calling Strikes
If walks have increased given a similar strike zone percentage, have umpires been a problem, not calling strikes?
| Year | Swing% (in/out of zone) | Called Strike% (in/out) | Swing-Whiff% (in/out) |
| 2010 | 63.6% / 34.6% | 82.2% / 9.5% | 51.1% / 71.6% |
| 2011 | 65.1% / 30.7% | 81.6% / 6.1% | 53.0% / 73.3% |
The table above shows that there has been a 0.6% drop in called strikes for watched pitches within the strike zone. Over a total of 1,166 watched pitches, this corresponds to 7 fewer called strikes compared to the 2010 percentage. For watched balls outside the strike zone, Twins pitchers have seen a sharper 3.4% drop in called strikes, corresponding to 79 fewer called strikes compared to 2010. Over a total of 45 games (through Sunday), this is roughly two fewer called strikes than we would have seen last season. Over 6,653 pitches, these 86 called balls contributes to a 1.3% reduction in the overall strike percentage. Enough to be felt, but probably not enough to increase the walk rate to the point we've seen this year.
3. Hitters Aren't Chasing Pitches
The table above shows that batters are chasing far fewer pitches this season than in 2010, Last season, the Twins pitchers got hitters to chase balls at a 34.6% rate, third highest in MLB. This season, hitters have chased only 30.7% of pitches outside the zone, 28th best in MLB. Whatever effect the umpires have had this season, it is more than canceled by hitters laying off balls outside the zone, contributing to the walk rate.
4. Bullpen
As bad as the entire pitching staff has been, the bullpen has been worse. I won't repeat what Seth posted today to TwinsCentric, but the starting pitchers have a 4.72 ERA, fourth worst in MLB, while the bullpen has a 5.41 ERA, second worst in MLB to Detroit's 5.84 bullpen ERA. When your highest leverage situations are being pitched by your poorest pitchers, it has a large impact on winning ball games. From a win probability added (WPA) standpoint, the rotation has contributed a total of -0.84 WPA compared to the bullpen's -1.40 WPA. Of course, both pale in comparison to the lineup's overall -5.77 WPA, but I'm focusing on the pitchers today. However, I should point out that (last night's game notwithstanding) the bullpen has blown only seven saves this season (including setup guys blowing leads), right around league average. Of course, when one compares to only 10 saves and few opportunities this still isn't very good.
5. Defense
I'm going to try not to get on a rant here, but defense has to play a role in the Twins poor performance on the mound this season. Overall, looking at UZR/150 metrics, the Twins defense has slipped but is still above average, down to +1.3 from +3.2 UZR/150 last season. This corresponds to about a 20 run difference over an entire season, so a drop-off but not off the table. However, one needs to look no farther than the middle infield to think defense may be getting into pitchers' heads. Last season, with Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy, middle infield defense was a key strength. At shortstop, the Twins overall +13.2 UZR/150 was best in all of baseball, and at second base the Twins overall +9.9 UZR/150 was fourth in MLB. This season, the Twins overall shortstops -21.1 UZR/150 is easily worst in baseball, and second base's -8.8 UZR/150 is 23rd in MLB. And it's not just a matter of range, as errors have contributed to the poor defensive metrics. With this kind of a sieve behind me, I'd hesitate to throw strikes as well...
I could see the Twins start to reverse the walk rates a bit, if Francisco Liriano rediscovers his mojo, and if the Twins can patch together three or four bullpen arms who don't stink on ice. But at this point, with the number of holes in the staff as well as defensively, I don't see run prevention becoming a strength for the Twins any time soon.
20 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
But...
Bert Blyleven said there was no room for Slowey or anyone else in the rotation last night. I mean, who would you take out!?!
Paraphrasing Bert here, but his quote was something like: “Liriano and Pavano pitched great last year, Baker and Blackburn have been solid and you just can’t remove Duensing… the rotation is set.”
Not that Slowey would do better, but why not try a 6-man rotation or move Duensing back to the pen so we have a consistent 8th inning guy. Or call up Waldrop or Gutierrez? Or actually get a major league ready arm in return for a great defensive shortstop in the offseason. BLECH.
by TheBlackFreighter on May 24, 2011 10:15 AM EDT reply actions
Get Duensing back in the bullpen
They need a reliable lefthander in the worst way right now. He’s average in the rotation and he needs to have his innings limited. Slowey needs to get back into the rotation to increase his trade value. It may not matter anyway. If Slowey has a torn abdominal muscle it may be enough to put him back on the DL.
You don't move a guy pitching as solidly in the rotation as Slowey to the pen. Period.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
Suppose for the sake of argument that Slowey and Duensing perform the same in the rotation
(assuming Slowey is not injured), then it’s reasonable based on history to expect Duensing to pitch better in the bullpen, especially when he can match up against tough left handers.
Of course, Slowey is the question mark here…can he be productive?
by Adam Peterson on May 24, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not?
Look, Slowey is good and all, but it’s not like he’s the second coming of Roy Halladay.
I get that Blackburn was bad last year, but the Twins obviously thought he would rebound this year, and he has.
If the Twins wanted Slowey in the pen, HE SHOULD PITCH IN THE PEN. End of story.
by matswilander on May 24, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
6 man rotation
I like the idea of the six man rotation. Let them pitch that way until the All-star break, and then shake it out. Otherwise, trade Slowey now for a catcher who is major-league quality. I have had enough of catching production that is on-par (probably sub-par) with NL pitchers.
At this point, Duensing to the bullpen may be the only way to upgrade within the roster
and it would actually give Slowey a little trade value if he is successful (and healthy) in the rotation. Duensing may not like it, but he would be a big upgrade in the pen. And giving Slowey more innings would definitely help reduce the walks, especially if his innings replace Hughes or someone like Hoey.
by Adam Peterson on May 24, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think the Twins will do this
Going into the year, the coaching staff awarded one starting job to Duensing. They risk losing a lot of credibility and respect from everyone else, if they are going to demote Duensing because Slowey has not been able (for whatever reason, really, this part is irrelevant) to perform in his new role. Afterall, if you just show your manager you aren’t fit for the bullpen and thus you get a chance to start games again, what kind of signal is the coaching staff sending out to the team?
by twinscrazy_german on May 25, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Bullpen Solution
Pitch only Duensing. Every game. Starter comes out, in comes Duensing. He’s young, he can handle it.
Would be awesome
But nathan can come in for games where we are down by 8. Granted, that might overwork nathan.
by domesticllama on May 24, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know what's sadder,
the fact that the Twins have blown 7 saves while only converting 10, or the fact that we’ve only had 17 save opportunities to begin with (the AL average is 33.5).
Numbers can be a bit misleading...
but only a bit, as blown holds in the 7th or 8th inning also count as blown saves.
However, 4 of the blown saves are from Capps, and two more were Nathan’s, so six of the seven blown saves are actually from the closer. The other blown save was from Burnett before getting to the closer.
And yes, the fact that we’ve only had 16 save opportunities is not good, ditto for only having a 62.5% success rate given the opportunities.
by Adam Peterson on May 24, 2011 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, my bad.
I looked at the stat wrong. We actually have had 39 save situations, though only 17 save opportunities. Different stats.
On the plus side, the bullpen is 20 for 21 in "hold" situations
with only one blown hold from Burnett. Perkins leads with six holds. So as long as the offense gives the pen a lead, the 7th and 8th inning guys are generally able to hold on. Until Capps or Nathan blows the save.
Of course, I would consider last night to be a blown hold, since Nathan wasn’t able to get through the 8th, and Capps had to come in early.
That may also be a bit misleading
You can’t blow a save if you don’t have the lead, and the horrible offense is making it difficult just to get to that point. I’d say that, given the Twins’ offense this year, the awful ERA may be more telling than the awful save percentage.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
6 man rotation
I would support this full force under 1 condition:
No matter how the starter performs he throws no less than 100 pitches in a game. If he isn’t getting completely slammed (6+ runs) he throws to at least 125.
What does this do? The whole point is our bullpen has been terrible. Our best chance to win games is to keep the starters that are pitching decent in for as long as possible.
“Only 8 blown saves”?
10/18 is awful. 15/18 would probably be acceptable and 5 more wins and we are 20-26 which is at least close enough to .500 and the leaders to hope for success this season. Add in the games where we were not leading but the pen blew games by giving up runs and we scored later and we can hit .500 pretty easily even with the poor offense due to injuries. (Luckily we can say due to injuries now since they have been scoring as of late)
This is the moment I am talking about
(In real time) 4-2 lead. 9th coming up
N Blackburn 109-70
Blackburn even at 109 pitches is our best shot to win. They take him out and I’ll be pissed (not only me but I’d be pissed if I were Blackburn).
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Evan Longoria confirms he’s dating Playboy model Jaime Edmondson
- Matt Moore understands Rays promise him nothing
- Stan Musial or not, it’s time for Albert Pujols to finally accept the ‘El Hombre’ nickname
- The 10 best things about being a Giants fan
- Spring Swing: Joe Maddon and Co. welcoming big expectations for Rays
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
