Why didn't we see this coming?
by cmathewson on May 28, 2011 12:19 PM EDT
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This started as a muse with my brother Stu about why the Twins are in the tank. After last night's fiasco, I have to write it down or I'll blow a gasket. The short answer is the bullpen, as anyone who has watched the action can attest. Other parts of their game have not lived up the the Twins Way(TM) at times. But even when they do, the bullpen lets them down. The bullpen has been the one consistently bad aspect of the team's game.
As I project teams going into the year, I typically look at two factors:
1. Do they have the horses (strong starting staff, good hitters throughout the line-up, etc.)
2. Do they have the bullpen to hold down leads and otherwise keep the team in games late?
Lots of teams have item 1. Few teams have item 2. Take the Cleveland Indians in 2005 and 2006. Both teams had the horses. They were essentially the same teams with a few minor changes. But the 2005 team had a solid bullpen. The 2006 team did not. In 2005, they won 93 games. In 2006, they won 78 games. Between those years, they lost their three best bullpen arms (Bob Howry, Arthur Rhodes, and David Riske) and ended up blowing something like 30 saves in 2006. They also used 23 arms in 2006 and only 17 in 2005.
So why didn't we see the same thing coming this year with the Twins, who lost three solid bullpen arms from 2010 (Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch) and a fourth who helped out down the stretch (Brian Fuentes)? I blame myself for homer myopia. But the Twins were consensus division champs by most projection systems. We all said, "We have like 10 arms to replace those four guys, we should be fine." The analysts generally agreed. We might struggle early to find the right mix, but find it we would. Well, there's little hope of finding it when your manager is forced to use three guys with ERAs over 9 in the eight inning with a lead. The minors are not without hope, but the season is practically lost by now. Winning 78 games is a dream only homers like me contemplate.
Obviously, projection systems need to pay closer attention to bullpen strength. One of the consistent messages from SABR people (not naming any names) is that any competent pitcher can close games. Perhaps in aggregate this is right. But good teams have four or five guys who can get tough outs in late-and-close situations. And I would put the emphasis on the word competent. You need four or five competent arms in the bullpen in this day and age. I'm talking about guys who have demonstrated their competence at the major league level, not minor leaguers who show promise. It stands to reason, you can't lose your top four bullpen arms without proven competent arms to replace them and expect to win.
Still, why do projection systems keep making this mistake? It's not just the SABR people, who systematically underestimate the importance of closers and, by extension, other relievers. It's the old guard. Guys like Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris and Nolan Ryan, who bemoan the fact that starters don't take the ball deeper into games. I think they wish starters were tougher and, in the process, besmirch relievers. When both baseball religions underestimate the importance of relievers, we have a problem. I hope to shed some light on this problem.
How did relievers become such precious commodities?
In this age, the game requires a solid bullpen for success--something the Twins have typically had in the Ron Gardenhire era, until this year. The reason is multifaceted, but comes down to the simple fact that starters can only get through seven innings on a good day. The average is closer to six. Bert might lament this and blame the current day "sissies" on the mound. But it is not their fault. As I said, the reasons are various. In no particular order:
1. I think pitchers are generally stronger than they were in Bert's day. And they generally throw harder. In Bert's day, you threw hard if you hit 90 consistently. Now those guys are described as "control artists" or "soft tossers." So perhaps they excel in the 20,000 meters rather than the marathon. The best starters learn to make adjustments throughout the game and continue to get outs. But guys like Kevin Slowey are more common: OPS against of 600 the first time through, 700 the second, and 800 the third.
Bert can rail about toughness all he wants. But pitching is like long-distance cycling. When a guy "bonks" or hits a wall, he's no use to anyone. That tends to happen at the 100-pitch mark with the way guys are built these days, which is the reason for pitch counts, as a warning for pitching coaches to pay attention to signs of fatigue.
2. I think the strike zone is smaller than it was in Bert's day. This year, in particular, I have noted a reluctance to call the low strike. Pitch FX can back me up on that. But every year, the umps seem to shrink it one way or another, forcing pitchers to give guys more good pitches to hit. Along the same lines, it seems tougher to get called third strikes than it was in Bert's day. The old saying was "protect the plate with two strikes." Hitters don't have to worry about that anymore.
3. More hitters buy into the Moneyball patient approach. Watching Red Sox/Yankees games is like watching grass grow. Why? Average pitches per at bat. Each team has to throw something like 200 pitches per game in those contests. Only the Twins and Cardinals preach swinging at the first pitch these days. If a guy has already thrown 100 pitches in the fifth inning, he's not even getting into the sixth.
4. The warning system has made pitchers more gun shy inside. Hitters can comfortably lean out and extend plate coverage when they know the pitcher will be warned if he hits them. Along these lines, hitters have no fear inside with all the the armor they wear. Why does Carlos Quentin get hit so much? He never moves. In Bert's day, a hitter was supposed to at least try to get out of the way to gain first base. Umpires very rarely call this. Also, in Bert's day, if a guy didn't move, he was in for a more painful plunk in a later at bat.
5. Hitters are bigger and stronger. The SABR people can trot out a SLG/time chart that shows this clearly. I wonder how many homers Bert would give up against the Rangers if he were in his prime right now. And this is post steroids. It was even worse in the steroid era, which coincides with the advent of the pitch count. We have seen fewer homers post steroids, but no less mental and physical wear and tear on pitchers who have to be almost perfect on every pitch.
I'm sure there are other reasons. For all those reasons and more, the game has changed. And it's no use trying to change it back. All you have to do is look at at typical week for a ball club. To have a winning week, you need to be in five ballgames to the end. The best teams are in every game. If your starters average 6 innings, that's 21 innings you need to cover with relievers. Most relievers can only handle five innings a week and sustain success. So you need at least four competent relievers to win. And if you have an inconsistent rotation, you will need five or six.
I still wonder why no one saw this coming. But it's high time we paid closer attention to bullpen strength when we project whether a team will contend or wait 'till next year.
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I have mixed feelings on this
On one hand, I think it is insane to give high-dollar contracts to people like Nathan, Capps, Crain and Guerrier. Replacements can be found. On the other hand, it is folly to think a team can just put a collection of guys in the pen and they will have success.
It seems the Twins problem this year more than anything was bad scouting. Who are the scouts that said Hoey and Hughes were major-league ready? And that includes Twins’ hitters who raved about Hughes.
But the Twins cannot be blamed for not foreseeing Mijares struggling, Capps failing, Perkins getting hurt, and Slowey refusing to pitch.
Yeah, it's a quantity thing, for me
In past years, they have turned the bullpen over one arm at a time, typically, with the possible exception of 2004, which was more of a fluky thing, imho.
You just can’t have this kind of turnover and expect success. One or two at the most.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Yes, the Bullpen sucks
but do we notice it more because we’re not leading games 10-2 going into the 7th. Is the this the Twins perfect storm? The bullpen sucks because the hitting sucks?
by b1 on May 28, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Even when we have had "comfortable" leads, we have lost
Who would have thought 5-0 was not a safe lead in the eighth inning?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
1 time.
It’s not like this has happened every other game. They’ve lost 8 games when leading after 7 innings, and 2 of those were because they let Nathan come back to closing way to early. They’ve lost 25 from bad defense, bad starters, and non-existent hitting.
OK, let's start there
If they win those 8 games, we would be 24-25. Our season wouldn’t be lost.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on May 28, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right
Over the years a good Bullpen has been a constant under Gardy. He has been able to use that to overshadow his in-game managing skills and his love of playing his favorites.
A good bullpen has been his calling card and sparked the team to winning a lot of regular season games.
w/o that his team has fallen apart.
by clutterheart on May 28, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
The Twins could never generate the kind of offense...
…required to make relievers giving up runs not a big deal. Not on anything close to a consistent basis.
Why would Smith Trust his Hitters in this case?
Gardy, and the hitters see a small sample. Smith should have had actual scouts see Hughes throw our just glance at his actual body of work.
But no. Green Eye-shade Smith has no freakin’ clue how to evaluate so he listens to opinions, crunches the numbers and then hopes that good deal can fall into his lap.
by clutterheart on May 28, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I find it hard to believe the twins preach swing at first pitch
I would say they are the opposite, letting the first pitch, a fastball right down the middle, fly right by them
Not to storke a dead unicorn or anything but....
AAA and AA teams last year were a combined 93-193…..the title of this post should be:
Why didn’t the Twins front office see this coming?
Here here
I thought there was way too much lip service being paid to saying that minor league records don’t matter. When you are that bad, they matter.
The minor leagues
have been sinking for a while. Myself I think that’s just a natural consequence of success. You can stay strong for a while, but eventually all those poor draft spots will begin to tell.
Free Chuck James...
…he has been the best pitcher at Rochester since opening day. I don’t recall the last time he gave up an earned run and he is striking out more than a batter an inning. OK, he doesn’t throw hard and the new Twins apparantley hold that against him. But he appears to be the only guy down there today that just may be able to come up and get regular outs.
At this point it won't really matter
+ Slama nor Gutierrez nor Waldrop nor ANYBODY can come up from the minor leagues at this point and save our bellpen
it just is too far gone to be saved at this point.
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 28, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
bringing them up
is not about saving the season the organization needs to test the minor leaguers with potential to see if they can be a part of next years pen so we dont have to go into next year with this same well theres a shitload of them some will pan out approach..
Free Carlos Guiterrez! Free Chuck James!, Free Anthony Slama!
by holymackerel on May 28, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
This is exactly hit, I’m actually ok with letting Hoey stay up and pitch as the seasons gone already. See if he can work out the kinks and possibly be a guy for next year. I’d like to see extended looks at Gutierrez and Chuck James for sure. Even Slama more than deserves an extended shot at the bullpen.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Can I make my argument that all of us should look more favorably on relievers...
…as they come through the system. I know many minor league fans, if not most, tend to value/rate starters higher than relievers. Some very respected people in this market will almost never put a reliever in their Top 20 or so.
We are painfully seeing first hand that a good reliever is as valuable as any other player on the team. So I will again make my argument to value relievers fairly.
I agree....and why not bring Gibson and Gutierrez up now?
Santana and Liriano came up as relievers…..
At what point can the meter start running on these two and not have the dreaded Super Two status kick in for 2011.
This.
Gibson could be making a contribution to the bullpen. It would limit his inning this year and ease him into the bigs.
Its not a set date.
The top 17% of players (top meaning most service time at major league level) arbitration eligible qualify for super 2 status.
by MinnesotaCatFan on May 30, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Dime a dozen.
Look at Tampa Bay the last few years. They lost more relievers than we did, and better ones, this offseason. They rebuilt their bullpen without spending any more money. It’s just not that hard. Even look at the Twins. They found guys all over the place for next to nothing. Jon Rauch was had for next to nothing. They claimed Breslow off waivers. Ron Mahay did a good job when used correctly, gotten off waivers.
For the most part, Tampa has manned its bullpen with proven pitchers
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Correct
Going out and getting guys who can get outs.
They did that with Shank last year but this offseason they did not.
The loss of Crain, Matty G, Shank and Fuentes would not hurt as much if they would have gotten some more proven arms.
In retrospect the trust the showed in Manship & Hughes is almost criminal
by clutterheart on May 28, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If they were a dime a dozen, why doesn't every team have a great bullpen?
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Unreliable.
Relievers numbers change drastically from year to year. Signing “established” relievers to multi year deals is a fools errand and a waste of money. Last year 47 relievers had an era under 3. 93 had an era under 4. You’re telling me a decent reliever is hard to find?
You paint with a broad brush I see
There are relievers who’s numbers do not deviate much from year to year. Fuentes and Rauch, for example.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I did not mean to imply that there is no such thing as a reliable reliever. My point is there is no shortage of decent relievers every year, and building a bullpen is not that hard. You do not need to focus on them in the minors, and you definitely don’t need to spend in free agency for them. Most anybody who has a reasonable record of success starting in the minors can be a reliever in the majors.
Maybe
Maybe you’re right. Do you have any examples of organizations that have mastered this revolving door of inexpensive relievers?
The Minnesota Twins
Save for Nathan, the Twins have rarely had many expensive relievers.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on May 28, 2011 9:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Exactly
Which is probably what led them to believe they could just keep plugging in the next guy and he would become Tom Edens, Carl Willis, Guardado, Matt Guerrier, etc.
In those cases, they brought them along slowly
LaTroy Hawkins spent a year strictly in long relief before moving him to set-up guy. Juan Rincon was strictly long relief for a year. Ditto Matt Guerrier. Nathan was in long relief for a year with the Giants before coming here.
What doesn’t seem to work is to throw guys into close-and-late situations with virtually no experience.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
San Diego Padres
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 30, 2011 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Minor league relievers
Two huge issues with minor league relievers:
1) Their numbers are optimistic compared to minor league starters because they are spotted in platoon situations and never have to face the same batter twice.
2) They hardly pitch any innings so they don’t develop. This is why the Twins have used their better relief prospects as starters for as long as possible (Burnett, Gutierrez).
Not the bullpen.
Focusing on the bad bullpen is just ridiculous.This team is bad everywhere. Yeah they have some hitters that should rebound, but there are lots of performances that shouldn’t be surprising. No one should have expected anything but what has happened from Casilla and Butera. The fact that absolutely NO backup was prepared whatsoever for the middle infield or catcher is completely unacceptable. You want to point fingers? Point at bad defense and worse hitting.
I personally have watched the following over the last 10 days:
1. Closer blew two saves in one game
2. Bullpen blew 8-run lead in the last two innings
3. Bullpen blew 5-run lead in the eighth
We’re not a good team, even with a good bullpen. But we’d be respectable. We’re the worst team in baseball with this bullpen.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Worse.
The Twins are 3rd to last in wOBA, 2nd to last in obp, 3rd to last in slugging. 2nd to last in uzr for shortstops, 5th to last for 2nd basemen. Relievers have thrown a grand total of 138 innings, which is 6th least in baseball. The extreme lack of hitting and bad defense up the middle is way bigger.
You can say that about a bunch of things
We’re not a good team, even with a good backup catcher. But we’d be respectable. We’re the worst team in baseball with this backup catcher.
We’re not a good team, even with a good middle infield. But we’d be respectable. We’re the worst team in baseball with this middle infield.
We’re not a good team, even with a good starting rotation. But we’d be respectable. We’re the worst team in baseball with this starting rotation.
We’re not a good team, even with a good offense. But we’d be respectable. We’re the worst team in baseball with this offense.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Fair enough
Perhaps we can put it another way: Even with a good middle infield and a good backup catcher, we would be a bad team because of our bullpen. I don’t happen to think our starters are bad. They’re actually fairly average. At times we have failed to score runs. But even when we score a lot of runs, we still give up the game int he eighth inning.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
The starters may not be bad, but their play has been bad
The Twins have the second-worst starter ERA in the AL. The bullpen is worse (actually much worse), I will grant you, but Duensing, Liriano, and Pavano have been generally awful this year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Duensing has been below average but not awful
Pavano has been scuffling and Liriano is the little girl with the curl.
Duensing's ERA+ is 83
Ramon Ortiz’s ERA+ that half-year he was with the Twins was 84. It’s maybe not “awful”, but “below average” seems pretty generous.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
That's a normal 5th starter
Replacement value for a 5th starter is 80-85 ERA+
As you say, the bullpen is much worse than the starting staff
I’m not saying the bullpen is the ONLY problem. Just that it is the most damaging problem to this team when it comes to winning, and one we could have all predicted would be this team’s undoing.
Pardon us for not predicting the rash of injuries, which contributed to the hitting woes in the worst way. But we all should have seen the bullpen coming unglued after we failed to replace three of the four relievers with anything good.
With a good bullpen (one like last year’s) this is a mediocre team. With this bullpen, it is the worst team in the league.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I didn't see the bullpen being this bad
Everyone was pretty sure Dusty Hughes would suck. Everyone suspected Jim Hoey would suck. But Mijares falling off a cliff? Capps blowing every other save? Nathan not just coming back weak, but being a complete train wreck? Heck, even Burnett, who’s no great shakes to begin with, has been way worse than expected. I’d say that the bullpen has underperformed expectations almost as much as the offense, although as you said, they don’t have as strong of an injury excuse.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
The increased use of bullpens is baseball evolving
ya the old guard likes to talk about pitchers going 9 innings and throwing 130+ pitches but its just not effective anymore save for some exceptional pitchers like Halladay and Lee, its so much more effective to have a pitcher ready to come in for the last few innings who doesnt have to worry about stamina and who is often specialized in striking people out or dominating platoon splits. On top of that you are decreasing the number of times hitters see the same pitcher instead of trotting a starter out again for his 4th or 5th time through the lineup when hes already throw his entire repertoire and is tiring.
The twins seem to have stocked their bullpen this year with the same soft tossing strike throwers that make up 4/5 of the starting staff offering a very similar look to the starters they are replacing negates some of the hitters having to make adjustments to their hitting approach and also Gardy continues to ignore platoon advantages.
They need to trade Slowey for a setup man and they need to call Guiterrez, Slama, and James up to see if they can be effective pieces, staffing your bullpen with Burnett, Hughes, Swarzak is not an effective plan maybe 1 one them for a mop up man but not 3, and Hoey while his stuff looks really good at times does not appear ready to contribute to a major league pen. Closer wise we are stuck with Nathan just have to hope he figures it out and Capps should be traded but in the interim stop trying to use him like Mariano Rivera he is not a 5 and 6 out save closer he has proven that.
Free Carlos Guiterrez! Free Chuck James!, Free Anthony Slama!
+1000
The twins seem to have stocked their bullpen this year with the same soft tossing strike throwers that make up 4/5 of the starting staff offering a very similar look to the starters they are replacing
And I would like to add……and pitchers that don’t have an “out” pitch. This is why we see other team’s batters continually have long at bats…fouling stuff off until they find one they like, and contributing to high pitch counts and earlier exits.
As much as I think Slowey should have a better attitude and play where he's asked to play
… I don’t he’s reliever material. “No out pitch” was always the knock on him. He provides greater value in longer stints.
Problem is....
he has struggled with “longer stints” as well. I think he has value in the NL where they can pinch hit for him after the 5th or 6th. The Padres would be a great team for him, because his fly balls would go to die in Petco. Or the Dodgers.
No
He struggled with long stints last season after coming back from a pretty severe injury. I’m not sure why it is that people sour on guys so quickly. He had a tough injury and the comback wasn’t as smooth as we’d have liked.
Tad too much on the “what have you done for me lately?” routine.
by diehardtwinsfan on May 30, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Crainwreck in Chicago
It helped eased the pain.
Gave up a 2-out 3-run double to Rivera and lost the lead. Felt good. Sounded awesome since Hawk replied, “Ugh. Can you believe it?”
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on May 28, 2011 3:33 PM EDT reply actions
Crain
Would be the Twin’s best reliever this year
by clutterheart on May 28, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I was unprepared for how incredibly bad our worst players were going to be
I mean, I know we had some holes and we’d have to rely on call-ups from Rochester at some point, but its been hard to believe how fare -below- replacement level our replacements have been.
I’d figure an awful reliever would have an ERA in the mid-5’s to near 6. But we have three guys over 7, a fourth over 8, a fifith is pushing 10 (9.95) and a sixth is at 10.61. We’ve been circling through these guys but we can’t find one that’s even AAAA level?
We knew Butera couldn’t hit, but .120?!? That’s a 30% drop from last years awfulness. And his backups? Both below .200? Any other team would have a catcher in AAA that could hit .200/.250/.300, no? That’s a pretty low bar!
We know Tolbert is a utility scrub but he’s usually good for .230 avg and a .600 OPS. But he’s down at .162/.195/.230. And the third OF slot has been a problem. Delmon is hitting awful (OPS+ 41) and when he gets hurt we can’t find anyone in AAA to do any better than that? Revere 43, Repko 39, Tosoni 38? We can’t find some scrub who can hit an OPS+ or 75 or 80 at a corner outfield slot?!?
This may sound like a quibble to complain about how bad our worst players are (they aren’t expected to be “good”) but these black holes suck production away from the rest of the lineup… which hasn’t really been gangbusters either. Kubel and Span have been solid, but not amazing enough to carry all the deadweight.
"far below replacement"
Every way I try to emphasize text turns out to be a shortcut for some bold or strikethrough effect. :-)
I pretty much agree with all your enumerated points regarding the changed game.
It’s maddening every time Bert goes on one of his “in my day pitchers threw 200 pitches” rants (actually, it’s maddening pretty much any time he talks) and acts as though MLB is played and called in the same way it was in the 70s.
I entirely agree that the low strike is flat out gone this year, especially on anything sinking.
Sabr people are generally just against overvaluing relief pitching and the closer/save fetish, etc. No sabr person in their right mind wanted Hughes or Hoey anywhere near this bullpen. A sabr analysis of Alex Burnett suggests the same thing a conventional analysis suggests: he’s not very good. Etc. I hated the way this bullpen looked going into the season, and I love me some fancy numbers. There were plenty of cheap, decent options, but Bill Smith is… well, kind of an idiot.
As to the central point, the projection systems didn’t miss on the Twins mostly or even in large part because they misread the strength of the bullpen. They missed mostly because they misread the strength of the “horses”. The offense was supposed to be a bitchin’ run machine and instead it’s a pathetic joke. The infield defense is horrendous (and btw made multiple contributions to the “bullpen’s meltdown” in the 8th yesterday). Pavano. Liriano. Etc.
So, yeah, the pen sucks but so does everything else, y’know, and everything else is a lot more important. I have a bigger problem with Drew Butera starting major league baseball games than I do with Dusty Hughes pitching in them. Well, maybe not. Hmmm…. might be an irresistible force/immoveable object sorta thing, come to think of it…
by tobynotjason on May 28, 2011 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Thank you for confirming my point
“I agree with everything you say, except the conclusion. Because, as an ardent practitioner of sabermetrics, I cannot accept the claim that relievers are that important to winning. Ergo, it has to be everything else.”
You and mhanson provide the most valuable evidence that my point is correct, at least for a large class of sabr people.
One thing I will say by way of a counter: Just about everybody predicted the starters would pitch about as they have. Most predicted regression from Pavano, Liriano, and Duensing, and progression from Baker and Blackburn.
No one predicted that Joe Mauer or Nishioka would be out for most of the year. But lots of people predicted regression from Delmon, Valencia, and Thome. Morneau was always a big question mark, as was the middle infield, especially Casilla.
In short, aside from Mauer and Nishioka, the horses have only slightly underperformed their projections by a lot of pundits here and elsewhere. Nobody predicted a complete and utter collapse of the bullpen. Nobody predicted that we would use six of the guys we sent to Rochester before June 1.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Thanks for owning that straw man.
At least you were blatant: an out-of-whole-cloth, misrepresentative quote and everything.
Do you seriously believe the Twins are failing – that is, losing 2/3s of their baseball games – “mostly or even in large part” (my actual words) because of their bullpen when the position players have posted a collective wOBA of (wait for it) .288 and a grand total of 2.7 Wins Above Replacement. Really? When the starting pitching has posted 2.5 WAR, good for 25th in MLB? 26th best starting ERA in a pitcher’s park? That’s just ignoring reality.
Yes, the relief pitching has been horrible. But 141 innings of horrible pitching (there’s actually 2 clubs worse, including Texas) doesn’t hurt as much as 310 innings of pretty damn bad pitching combined with full time offensive suckage and middle infield atrocity (combined 2B/SS UZR/150 is -30.5). It just doesn’t. If the Twins offense was what it was “supposed” to be and Liriano pitched like his 2010 peripherals said he should and Pavano wasn’t turning into 2010 Blackburn and Cuddyer never got near second base and we had an MLB shortstop, then “yes”, the bullpen would certainly be holding them back from running away with the division. I don’t dispute that at all.
But if the question you’re trying to answer is “why is this team 17-35 instead of, say, 23-29,” (i.e. a question that could possibly be credibly answered by “the bullpen”) that’s a pretty uninteresting question. I’m pretty sure people are more interested in “why do the Twins have the worst record in baseball instead of, you know, a WINNING record and a shot at the division,” and “the bullpen sucks” doesn’t begin to answer that.
Maybe you haven’t looked at how bad the offense and starting pitching’s actually been? And saying “aside from Mauer and Nishioka” as if that little “aside” hasn’t been an unmitigated catastrophe makes “the horses have only slightly underperformed” pretty silly (to say nothing of the fact that, no, the rest of them have horribly underperformed).
I’ll say what I said before a different way: the original post contains a straw man to the extent (which could be debated) that it suggests sabr people would at all disagree that the bullpen of a championship team needs to contain several competent arms.And I remain unaware of a sabr analysis that liked the way the Twins put together their bullpen this offseason. But that doesn’t mean the Twins aren’t losing mostly because of their horses.
by tobynotjason on May 31, 2011 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
A bullpen problem is solvable in-season
If the Twins #1 problem was their bullpen they would still be in the mix for a playoff spot and could address it through trade.
The top Twins problems
1) No Mauer and no backup C
2) No SS
3) Injured 2B and no decent backups
4) Underperforming ace pitcher
5) Underperforming all-star 1B
6) Bullpen
7) Various injured players
1-3 are partly or entirely the fault of the front office. 4 & 5 might be enough to keep them out of the playoffs even if everything else was going okay. #7 wouldn’t be an issue if 1-5 were okay.
Being the worst team in baseball up the middle is a good recipe for being the worst team in baseball.
Interesting stat from Rhett Bollinger
Elias: Since July 30, 1971, #Twins had gone 755-0 in games in which they took a lead of five or more run into the 8th inning.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Wow!!!!! Epic collapse unfolding!!!" -Danny Valencia
by less cowbell, more 'neau on May 28, 2011 5:45 PM EDT reply actions
Yup....
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN197107300.shtml
9-4 after 7. Five walks and a bases clearing double and its tied… we lose it in the 9th.
755-1 now
ugh
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 30, 2011 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well
That is a nice factoid but you would expect that to even get a loss after 755 games. It just proves how good the Twins are at keeping leads. This means that this year might be worse than 1981 in my book.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
wooooooooooooooooooow
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 30, 2011 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions
And yet, Roy Halladay.
Pitchers may in general be bigger and stronger, but pitching itself is still a matter of accuracy and skill. Consider Roy Halladay: Not the biggest or strongest, not the most massive fastball. He beats hitters by bending and ducking an assortment of bending pitches with amazing accuracy.
Then consider Tim Lincecum. He probably comes closest of anybody in history to perfecting the efficient pitching motion. Big and strong? Nope, he’s well under six feet tall, and I hear he weighs in about 175 pounds.
You want more? Think about Walter Johnson, the “Big Train” from early in the 20th century. He was 6’1" tall, and he delivered the ball with a swooping sidearm motion best compared to skipping a stone on a lake.
My point is that the best pitchers today and in history solved the problem of how to throw a baseball in a way that was different from the cookie-cutter way of teaching kids to throw. They figured out unique solutions to that problem, and went on to highly successful careers.
You take Bert Blyleven at 19 and plunk him into a Twins game, he’ll do just fine. He’ll do what he always did, which was pitch well and finish most of his games. Pitchers in the past were at least as good as the average pitcher today. They survived by learning to be more clever than the guys today. They traded stories about how to fool hitters.
Example: Take Jim Hoey. Big guy, huge fastball. Totally ineffective. Why? Because he’s too damn dumb to realize that major league hitters can hit any fastball if you keep throwing it in the same area. At the same time, Hoey’s got a good changeup, but again, he’s too damn dumb to use it to get hitters off balance. Gardenhire should fine the big lug if he throws more than one fastball out of every three pitches. Such measures were not always needed, but today, with dumber pitchers, maybe you have to fine them into being more clever.
:RE : Hoey
he’s not too damn dumb…. its just a flat fastball that comes out of his hand with no deception…. he doesn’t hide the ball long enough when he delievers the batters pick it up earlier than average even that .10th a second makes a difference and Hoey’s fastball is awfully flat and he leaves it up too often….. I don’t think he’ll ever be a set-up man (or better) is cieling for me is a middle reliever and that looks to be on the optimistic side.
The Gomez for Hardy trade was dumb (because we only kept Hardy 1 yr.)
The Hardy for Hoey, Jacobsen trade was dumb (er)
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on May 30, 2011 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Gomez for Hardy was a great trade
It was essential to contending in 2010.
I generally agree with this post.
I thought the Twins were going to be ok as I figured Capps and Mijares would be solid. I bought into the Nathan propaganda and I figured a few guys of this group would step up (Slowey, Perkins, Neshek, Slama, Hoey, etc.)
In full retrospect this has been a perfect storm of key players being injured, players underperforming, and no one stepping up out of the void. The only surprisingly positive performance this year has been Perkins out of the pen. I don’t count Span and Kubel because that’s how I expect them to play.
This is decidedly a cursed year in my mind, and I’m not your typical superstitious baseball player/fan. A couple solid bullpen arms and maybe a better position player or two would have helped but I still think we’d be in the basement of our division.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
INTERESTING
Thanks for the long post, very interesting reading. You make many good points.
by scottysnowski on May 29, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Scouting has variance
The Twins are a front office that more heavily relies on scouting. For the most part they’ve had a great track record doing it this way. The problem is that they’re not going to win out every year. Relying on qualitative data will result in some bad years. It’s a testament to their scouts that they’ve gone this long without a horrible season. But scouts, GMs, managers will have good and bad seasons.
the players we got for Santana all sucked
the Bartlett trade wasn’t that good, the Hardy-Gomez trade was two team needing to get rid of a player. So I’d say the Scouting of other teams players and prospects has been terrible. The draft scouting has only been so-so too.
by b1 on Jun 1, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
The bullpen isn't the biggest reason for the losing....
The injury list is.
And there are more than 100 games left in this season. If they are able to get healthy they still have a shot at winning the central this year. Counting anyone out in a 160 game season just two months into the season is a bit reactionary.
This is a mostly new bullpen, and will take a bit of time for everyone to settle into their roles. Let’s at least give them them a bit of a chance to do that before we start the “sky is falling” talk.
They will have to win 70% of their remaining games to win the division
As much of a fan as I am, I cannot expect that.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
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