2011 Twins Team Revised
by BCTwins on May 31, 2011 3:45 PM EDT
Email
PrintSo, since there hasn't been anything else to think about in the Twins world recently, I have been mulling over what could have been. What trades could not have been made that would have put the Twins in a much better position to win.
First, we must accept the trades of Santana and Garza, and the subsequent trade of Gomez for Hardy. In order for the scenarios to work, those must be accepted. Indeed, all of the trades up until the deadline of last year must be accepted.
Last year:
Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos - I was totally against this trade from the beginning and somebody can go back through my comments and check it. I argued against mostly everybody on this discussion board about the idiocy of this trade, but nobody appeared to listen to me at the time; instead, they gloated about what a good trade it was and how it would dramatically improve our chances in 2010, especially since Ramos had no spot on our roster since he was blocked by Mauer. Yes, Capps came in and did a marvelous job out of the pen in 2010, but even at the end of the season, I still claimed that it we severely overpaid for Capps.
As of today, Wilson Ramos is the starting catcher for Washington, with a line of .252/.336/.403 with 3 HR, 11 RBI, 24 SO, 15 BB and a 44% CS rate. Washington's manager raves about the young catcher and all his potential. We traded Ramos because we thought we didn't have a spot for him, and he deserves to play everyday. This was true, but how it bites now. Mauer has been out for well over a month and doesn't look like he will be back too soon.
Do I really need to sum up Capps? It seems like a waste of time for me to go look at his statistics to prove how idiotic this trade was, not only at the time for me, but also now in hindsight for basically every Twins fan. Plus, I thought the going rate was two minor league pitchers, not one fat "closer" - or maybe he is two pitchers, it is hard to tell with that belly!
This year:
J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris for Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson - Salary dump. We needed to get rid of Harris' contract, but apparently we also thought we needed to get rid of Hardy and his gold glove. Oh, how bad this trade looks now! Once again, at the time of this trade, I voiced my disapproval and I have never taken it back! Harris was an understandable dump, but I still do not see the point in trading Hardy ... ok, we could trade Hardy, but for two minor league pitchers? We traded two players, one a gold glove SS, for two minor league pitchers - one of whom is in the majors undeservedly!
As of today, Hardy has a .236/.317/.371 line (severely hampered early on...past seven games, Hardy has hit .280 with a trio of 2Bs and 4 walks). Hardy also has a phenomenal BB/K rate as he has walked 11 times while striking out only 15 times. In 86 ABs, Hardy has hit 6 2Bs and 2 HR, while driving in 12. More importantly though, Hardy has not committed an error as of yet, and his RF/9 sits at 4.99 (RF/G at 5.04). Hardy also is keeping up his defensive work with his Rtot/yr and Rdrs/yr numbers, respectively at 6 and 11.
Jim Hoey has given up runs and then some. Hoey's disastrous line looks like this: 10.45 ERA, 0-2 record and that is really all you need to know. Yes, small sample size, but one does not need to have a large one to recognize a AAAA player. Hoey has thrown only 10.1 innings (20 Hits and 16 runs [12 ER]), but Hoey has been a major league disappointment!
The one nice thing about trading Hardy is that we have been able to see Plouffe, but I am still not sure I like Plouffe. His defense is horrible, and he is very streaky at the plate. For one week, he can hit over .300 with a couple homers, but then he is right back in an 0-fer streak. I would like to see Plouffe more in the future, but unless his defense can improve, I say let him go ... trade him for two more minor league pitchers!
I return to the salary dump question. If the Twins had never traded for Capps, some of the money used for Capps could have been used in a Hardy signing. These two decisions alone, trading Ramos for Capps and trading our gold glove SS, have potentially ended our season - all else aside.
---
So without Capps on the team, the Twins would have needed a closer. Can anybody say sign Jon Rauch again? Toronto signed Rauch for $3.5 million ... losing the big man has hurt not only the Twins bullpen but also the Twins' morale because I highly doubt anybody was negative with a 6'10" tattooed monster in the dugout.
Yes the Twins would probably have had to stick with a bullpen sub-par, but they could have relied on their AAA players, Gutierrez, Slama, Waldrop, and James instead of relying on Hughes and Hoey.
Bullpen: Jon Rauch, Chuck James, Anthony Slama, Kyle Waldrop, Jose Mijares, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Slowey/Joe Nathan (I preferred Nathan in AAA to work out the kinks).
---
What must the Twins do now?
GARAGE SALE!
List of Twins needs:
- SS/2B (whatever Nishioka comes back and plays, we need the opposite of)
- Catcher - somebody more reliable than Drew Butera, which is, let's see, oh ya! anybody!
- Bullpen - the Twins need to really revamp their bullpen. Get rid of Hughes and Hoey
Who the Twins will probably sell:
- Jason Kubel
- Carl Pavano
- Matt Capps/Joe Nathan - I assume they keep one guy around
- Kevin Slowey
All that can be done now, is just sit back and enjoy the music - I am thinking Taps!
*Also, pick up Delaney again...lets take a chance on him, he certainly can't be worse than what we have now!
32 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I was with you on Ramos
I saw him as taking Butters AB’s and being the RH DH. But, I understand why the Twins made the trade. I remember lot of post about win this year and lets not worry about next year. I do think Capps help us win a number of games last year. I just didn’t like getting rid of such a strong RH bat to go with Valencia coming up. The trade was short sided, Ramos would have helped this weak hitting team for year to come.
Buyers in the offseason?
I saw on MLB Trade Rumors that the Twins are estimated to have an $83m salary for next year. Since we’re at about $115m this year, that leaves some major room. With that $32m, the Twins should do at least most of the following (the prospects they get at the trade deadline will lead to which ones they don’t need to do):
1) Buy bullpen arms. I’m not really sure who will be a free agent (y’all can fill that in for me) at the end of the year, but there will no doubt be several.
2) Pick up a major-league-ready middle infielder. Assuming Nishioka will be healthy and decent, this can fill out the infield.
3) A strong hitting outfielder. I hope the Twins don’t trade Kubel, but it might happen. If it doesn’t that probably means that Cuddy or Delmon will be gone. Either way, the Twins could use another outfielder. I’m not sure that Revere, Hicks, or Repko are really ready for everyday ball.
4) A Starting Pitcher. Gibson will probably be up. Pavano might be gone. Slowey will be gone. Liriano may be institutionalized for mental issues, or playing elsewhere. Duensing may settle back into the BP. This leaves one or two spots in the rotation. Buy a power pitcher already!
If there are upsides to being a seller this year, they are these:
1) The Twins can rebuild their organization with the prospects they receive.
2) They can open up salary space for players who can make the Twins compete next year. Granted, Gardy and Smith might sign more guys who say, “Aw, shucks, I just love playing the game how it’s supposed to be played,” but who aren’t that good.
Next year
1) Mark Prior and Michael Wuertz will be available. I would like to see the Twins take a run at Wuertz. Also, Hideki Okajima could potentially become available if he opts for free agency.
2) Nishioka will be back, and assuming the Twins can trade Slowey or others for a decent SS/2B prospect, they won’t have to go after any middle infielders. The only intriguing middle infield options are: Robinson Cano (too expensive), Aaron Hill (also too expensive), J.J. Hardy (took a flyer on him already and FO did not like), Brandon Phillips (getting older and injury prone), and Marco Scutaro (our only decent shot, but he has really only had one good year).
3) Interesting options here assuming the Twins lose Cuddyer/Young. Available on the FA market will be: Josh Willingham (be nice to take a flyer on him), Ryan Ludwick (maybe too expensive), Jeff Francoeur (really interested in him!), and Grady Sizemore (assuming he opts for free agency and even then, we would be bidding against Philly, NY, etc)
4) Wimmers and Gibson will probably be 1-2 in the Twins rotation with Liriano throwing third followed by Baker and Blackburn. No real need to pursue a starting pitcher (though if the Twins feel a need for a veteran pitcher, and not one of the three “veterans” above, both Mark Buerle and Brandon Webb are available).
The Twins could really make a splash this offseason. I would prefer they kept Kubel as their DH and traded Cuddyer, bringing in either Willingham or Francoeur to man RF. However, we all know Cuddyer will never be traded so that leaves either Young or Kubel out the door. Cuddyer could always move to DH (providing Kubel or Young is traded) and either Willingham or Francoeur could take over LF or RF, depending on the need.
I see the Twins acquiring a major league SS/2B at the deadline, moving Capps/Nathan, Slowey, and Kubel/Cuddyer/Young for one … maybe/hopefully acquiring Jed Lowrie from the Red Sox.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
Wimmers isn't out of A ball yet
He won’t be heading next season’s rotation
Just a quick comment or two.
1) There’s always some interesting guys but Prior hasn’t pitched in the majors since 06. I like Wuertz but they have an affordable option on him. I like the Twins to go after some internal and an external reclamation projects in Matt Capps, Joe Nathan, Frank Francisco and Jonathan Broxton. They’re all proven pitchers that at this point appear to be having bad years. I think the Twins could get 2 or 3 of them on the cheap and have a better beginning to a bullpen than this years. I could see taking a flyer on a guy like Prior and hope he can turn it around with a minor league deal.
2) Cano’s got an option that will be picked up so he’s unavailable. There’s not much out there an Scutaro doesn’t excite me. I’m hoping when the selling starts the Twins find a way to get some upper level legit MI talent. It’s lacking throughout the system with the nearest guys being maybe Dozier and Beresford in Fort Myers. Reyes isn’t really in the range unless the Twins shed some payroll in the form of Pavano, Young, or Liriano.
3) I’m assuming that Young is back and am hoping Kubel as well. I’d like to see Revere starting in the Majors and batting in the 2 hole while Kubel and Young take turns DH and playing the other outfield position. I think outfield is the one area we have talent coming up and shouldn’t commit long term to anything.
4.) as stated Wimmers won’t be up next year. Hopefully Gibson can be more than a mid rotation guy and Liriano can bounce back. I have always liked Baker a lot and he’s been very solid again this year. I think Blackburn is a great back end innings eater and is cheap. I wouldn’t be against them getting a decent vet if the moneys’ there and they were to sell Pavano this year.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Still the spectacle of having both Prior and Mauer
…on the same team considering the history makes it almost worth it. It’s not like Prior can command any kind of real money anyhow.
Now if we could only add some more of that top 5 to the Twins
Maybe trade for Texiera while we’re at it too.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
We always seem to need a Vet Pitcher (so the FO says)
This is why I can’t see trading Slowey. Slowey in MHO could be as good as Pav’s this year at half the cost. Trade Pav’s and his salary!
by b1 on Jun 1, 2011 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Payroll
I wouldn’t count on the same payroll again next year. I can’t find the article, but it was referenced somewhere that the Twins had to stretch to get to $115MM for this year, to make room for Pavano and Thome. You can’t count on selling out every game in 2012 if the club is rebuilding, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the payroll amount is lower.
doubtful
it is rare that a club regresses from its current payroll. I see next year’s payroll in the same range, $115 – 120 million.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
Really?
I can’t disagree with you more. You budget based on what your expected revenues are going to be, not on what you spent last year. Especially when you’re dealing with a fan base that’s as fickle as Minnesota’s.
MLB revenues are going up
When do the Twins renegotiate the TV deal?
The fan base in MN
is hardly fickle. We support our teams even when they are losing. Every Viking game is sold out despite the fact that they didnt make the playoffs last season. Twins have always garnered much support.
Your claim that the fan base in MN is fickle is disgusting and insulting.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
This is very much not true
The Twins’ attendance has correlated pretty strongly with the team’s success, at least since the Metrodome era. The pre-Target Field record was set in ‘88, with a successful team fresh off a championship, then dipped back down as the team struggled before rising again in ’91-’92 (again, the year after the championship had higher attendance), then plummeting during the dark years of the 90s, not rising again until the team got good in ‘01, at which point it steadily increased through the rest of the Metrodome’s life as the team continued to be successful (and had a few excellent pennant races).
Last year’s attendance is not a great example of local fans’ Vikings support – there was enough residual excitement from the ‘09 team and the presence of Favre that they were sold out well before it was apparent that the team would suck. On the contrary, there was more than one game in ’07-’08 (during which the team was mediocre and rather dull to watch) for which the local TV affiliate carrying the game had to buy out several thousand tickets to avoid a local blackout.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Can't say it any better.
I’m sorry you feel “disgusted” and “insulted.” I don’t know how old you are, but I remember crowds of <10,000 in the Metrodome when the Twins were losing. And less than that when we had the NorthStars here. The Vikings frequently were blacked out before Randy Moss showed up. Does Gophers football sell out, other than when Iowa and Wisconsin are here? And don’t even get me started on the Timberwolves, who don’t draw unless they’re winning, or unless LeBron or the Lakers are in town.
I stand by my “fickle” comment.
In defense of Minnesota fans...
Pretty much every city has this problem – you need a new stadium, a “destination” stadium (basically Fenway or Wrigley) or a very strong national following (Yankees, Red Sox, and to a lesser extent the Cubs and Braves thanks to the WGN/TBS days) in order to avoid attendance slumps during down periods.
The Twins have the good fortune of a new stadium, so while I’ll agree that there’s a decent chance of an attendance drop, I don’t think it will be all that severe thanks to Target Field. If the losing keeps up for two more years, then I’d start to worry more about revenues.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
"Fickle" or oversaturated?
You just mentioned a ton of major sports. The sports market in Mpls is diluted enough that you need a winning team to really draw fans. The teams with the best fan experience (Twins and Wild) are doing fine.
Trading Ramos for Capps
Was the type of win-now move that every for which Twins fan was clamoring. It didn’t work out, but it was a part of a mentality that when we have a chance to win big, the FO will go out and attempt to put together a team that won’t get swept by the Yanks in the playoffs. It didn’t work out, but at the end of last year, would you have really said you didn’t want to give anything up for a shot at the World Series?
It wasnt that I didnt like trading for Capps
I hated trading Ramos for Capps….severely overpaying for a mediocre closer.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
This is very true
I know a lot of people were against it, I was shocked we had to give up so much for him and felt we were selling extraordinarily low on Ramos at the time. I also have read so many comments on TT about the Twins always playing for the future. Well now I think we see why the Twins play for the future.
I also agree with BCTwins. It’s not that Capps sucks he just wasn’t worth paying Ramos for him. Had we gotten say Heath Bell then yah that makes sense.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
It was the fact we could have had Ramos
for cheep for years to come, then traded him at a higher value. Also, to me, we have such week hitting teams. Ramos looked like a solid RH gap hitter that could drive in some RBI’s. To me, we needed that more then a closer.
by b1 on Jun 1, 2011 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions
In regards to Santana/Garza
Well those trades really set the writing on the wall. You could see the qualities that contributed mightily to our current troubles occurring then. I’m not saying you can’t assume them (the Twins were burning their bridges with Santana before Smith for example) but they’re instructive none the less.
well good luck
with Bill Smith at the helm. I have absolutely no confidence in him. He should be fired. For so many reasons..
Free Revere and Gibson, Diamond
I’ve got to believe we’ll see these guys up soon. At this point don’t thy deserve a chance to make the starting line-ups?
What is the point?
They’re developing just fine in the minors. Why would you burn up service time on prospects for a lost cause 2011 season? BTW – the answer is NO on Revere and Diamond. Diamond has a 5 ERA and Ben Revere needs to get his OBP up above .380 in AAA before I would promote him.
The reason to bring them up is that
they are better then the players we have now. It’s time to make some trades and let the future stars get a half year in. Look to the future. Put the best 9 guys out on the field. Not the 9 oldest and overpaid.
by b1 on Jun 1, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Except they aren't better
Gibson may be better than Pavano but it isn’t clear cut. They would need to find a new home for Pavano and probably Slowey before they decide to bring up Gibson. I see a September callup unless the starters are depleted due to trades or injury.
Revere is NOT better than Kubel or Cuddyer right now and doubtful that he’s better than Delmon. He hasn’t shown enough at AAA to deserve a callup in my opinion and he was bad in the bigs. Once again they need to deal two starting outfielders before Revere comes up.
Diamond can’t get into the rotation in the majors and I’d rather have him starting in AAA than relieving in the majors so he sees more batters.
The real problems
You have to trade something to get something. Every year, teams trade prospects, for a vet, to help the late season surge. Capps for Ramos is done, We also would not of done this, if Nathan was assured to be back this season, as Capps was under team control for 2011. What do you think we would get for Cuddy? Not much, and where are we trading Kubel, a DH? They have some value as a bench bat, not 10M starters.
What about the black holes in the lineups? Butera, Tolbert and Casilla as terrible. Do you want to add Revere?
We need a back up catcher, but did you realize Rivera, is on pace to post similar numbers, as Ramos. I did like Hardy, and liked Garza, but like everyone else, did not work with them daily.
I still want 2B Cord Phelps!!!!!!
go get him Twins, Smith, Antony, Ryan
Thome or Pavano or Someone…………..
Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?
Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 1, 2011 6:20 PM EDT reply actions
Phelps
looks good. Whether they would trade him in the division is questionable along with what it would take..
Regards
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Twinkie Town
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
