April showers bring...May deluges?

by Bobomojo on Jun 1, 2011 9:29 AM EDT in By the Numbers

With last night's loss to Detroit, the Minnesota Twins wrapped up the first two months of the season with a dismal record of 17 wins and 36 losses, the worst season-opening record of any Twins team since 1982.

Fun fact: the 1982 Twins finished the season with just 60 wins, and remain the only 100- loss squad in Twins history.

A month ago, as the calendar flipped from April to May and with the Twins sitting on a .346 winning percentage, Ron Gardenhire was still expressing cautious optimism about the season. One bad month was not the end of the season, Gardenhire correctly noted. The team was focused on righting the ship, getting back to .500, and then setting their sights on capturing another division crown.

One wonders if we'll hear the same confidence today as the calendar flips to June.

Now that we have two complete months in the book, I thought we could step back and compare the teams brutal April with our horrendous May, and at least look for some rays of hope - or at least some signs of improvement from this disappointing squad.

Let's start with the team's win-loss record for the first two months:

	W	L	Win%
April	9	17	.346
May	8	19	.296

Judging by their win-loss record, the team was equally poor in April and May. But let's dig a little deeper, and look at the team's run differential and expected win-loss percentage:

	Run Diff.	Exp. W%
April	-57	.277
May	-33	.375

Still nothing to smile about, although the team was outscored by a significantly smaller amount in May. Yeah, I know, that's a pretty worthless fact when you consider a .375 winning percentage would still amount to a 61-win season.

Now let's look across the diamond at some key players.

Catcher

In all honesty, the only number that really matters is this:

	Games Played
	April	May
Joe Mauer	9	0

And then there's this:

	OPS
	April	May
Drew Butera	0.311	0.346

There is no sugar-coating those numbers - beyond Mauer, the Twins do not have a legitimate Major League catcher in the organization.

First Base

	April		May
	HR	OPS	HR	OPS
Justin Morneau	0	0.592	4	0.723

Granted, these numbers are skewed by yesterday's two homer performance, but for Twins fans desperate for some good news - and hope for 2012 - seeing Justin knock two out of the park last night provided a huge sigh of relief. It's impossible to suggest that last night was some sort of turning point for Morneau, but any sign of progress is welcome at this point.

Middle Infield

In April, Twins second basemen hit 203/248/258. In May, they hit 247/317/366.

In April, Twins shortstops hit 171/207/229. In May, they hit 229/317/369.

Believe it or not, the Twins middle infield was actually fairly productive in May, with both Plouffe and Casilla going through hot streaks at different ends of the month. In all honestly, those May slash stats are not that far short of what the Twins got out of Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy last season.

Third Base

Valencia's poor 2011 continued through May, although his biggest problem remains an extraordinarily low BABIP.

	April		May
	OPS	BABIP	OPS	BABIP
Danny Valencia	0.609	0.234	0.689	0.262

There was some good news in Danny's May - his ISO jumped from .098 to .178. For sake of argument, let's assume his low BABIP is due to some bad luck. Giving him an extra 30 points in BABIP would have changed his May slash stats to 273/321/428. That alone would make him one of the ten or twelve best third basemen in the game.

Outfield

Denard Span's bounce back season continued through May - he's now hitting 297/369/382 on the year, ranking as, arguably, the Twins' best player in 2011.

Jason Kubel - widely considered the best hitter on the team this season - cooled considerably in April: after posting a 903 OPS in April, Jason hit 746 in May.

Delmon...well, Delmon's horrible season just got worse in May. He finished the month with a .211 batting average, and just one extra-base hit. He currently holds the 6^th-lowest OPS among hitters with 100 plate appearances. The lowest? Drew Butera.

Starting Pitchers

Given how few appearances a pitcher makes in a month, I won't break this out player-by-player. But here is how the starting staff pitched in April and May:

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
April	4.97	4.61	4.34	5.79	3.27	1.23
May	4.17	4.09	4.01	5.79	2.92	0.97

After suffering through the worst pitching staff in baseball in April, Twins fans got to cheer for the ninth-worst squad in May. Improvement!

Relievers

	ERA	FIP	xFIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
April	4.68	4.60	4.77	6.16	4.32	0.99
May	6.45	4.87	4.86	6.08	4.74	1.09

There's not much to say about those numbers. Whatever improvement we say from the starting staff in May, it was given back by the relief corps several times over.

Conclusion

If we were looking for hope for the current season, we certainly didn't find much looking through these numbers. Even with the small improvement we saw at certain positions in May, this team is still playing very much like a 90 or 100-loss team.

However, if we're thinking about the pieces that will be in place in 2012, the news isn't all bad. Morneau hit four homers in May, Valencia played a little better, and we got a decent amount of production out of the middle infielders. Even the starting staff, while not great, was at least closer to average.

Turning the calendar to May certainly didn't save this team, and it's hard to imagine flipping the calendar to June will make much difference either. Without Mauer, a fully-recovered Morneau, and better pitching, this team has no hope of competing in 2011. Right now, I think most Twins fans are holding their breath and hoping to see signs that the core of the 2012 club turn their seasons around and position themselves for a big rebound next year.

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Comments

(Raises hand slowly, asks question quietly).

Admitted White Sox fan, so forgive me. Not trying to be a troll, but:

1) Does anyone actually know what is wrong with Mauer?
2) I’m fairly certain that Thome and Kubel won’t be back with you next year (thank God), so is Mauer more likely to be the primary 1B with Morneau at DH or vice-versa?
3) Has there been any serious consideration to moving Mauer to outfield? I know that sort of hurts his value, but I’m just asking.

(Puts hand down slowly, backs away).

AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.

by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Jun 1, 2011 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

*2: Assuming he won't go back to being the primary catcher.

AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.

by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Jun 1, 2011 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Based on Gardenhire's comments (yesterday)

Mauer is the catcher until he and/or the team decide he can no longer handle the position. Mauer has stated that he still wants to catch.

I believe a move will happen at some point, but not this year or next.

by Stefa on Jun 1, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I've kind of learned to tune out what my manager says.

So I sort of dismissed Gardy’s comments out of habit. Oops.

AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.

by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Jun 1, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

1. He has Bilateral Leg Weakness. According to the interwebs, there is an underlying cause of it. However, we do not know what it is.
2&3. Most talk has been either with 1B, 3B, or OF. But, that is just fan talk. The organization hasn’t been willing to talk about him changing positions yet.

by John_Locke on Jun 1, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Let me take a stab at this

1) No
2) No and No
3) No

The beard abides.

by Jason Kubel's Beard on Jun 1, 2011 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the questions

1. As John_Locke notes below, he has bilateral leg weakness. But it doesn’t seem like that’s the whole story, and I don’t know what’s really going on. Hopefully it’s nothing worse.

2. As Gardy has noted, Mauer will be the catcher for the foreseeable future. Although IF the Twins don’t bring Kubel back next year (he’ll probably be a Type A free agent, his options may be more limited than one would think), and IF the Twins acquire a competent backup catching option, I could see him getting more time at DH to keep him fresh. But I don’t see him getting serious time anywhere other than 1B or DH.

3. If Mauer moves anywhere else long term, I don’t think it will be the outfield given the organizational depth with Revere, Benson, Hicks, etc.

by Adam Peterson on Jun 1, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

By 'what's wrong with Mauer,' I should have clarified.

Does anyone know what ‘Bilateral Leg Weakness’ actually means? It sounds….icky but is hardly descriptive.

AJ Pierzynski: You have to want to catch.

by 2ndHalfAdjustments on Jun 1, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions

BLW

is a general feeling of fatigue or weakness in both legs… So basically imagine that you just finished running like 10 miles, and now you want to sit in a chair, lie in a hammock, do anything but stand on those two pillars of Jell-o called your legs.

by MNWildcat on Jun 1, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

And this wasn't stated more clearly above

Basically ‘Bilateral Leg Weakness’ means many things. The worst case scenario is that Joe Mauer has ALS and will be dead within the next few years. However it has been confirmed by the Twins that Joe Mauer had BLW in connection with the flu. I would like to go with the flu because there was a bug floating around in April and early May and both Justin Morneau and Delmon Young caught it as well. In Morneau’s case, he lost quite a bit of weight and I am sure that is what happened to Mauer as well.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew

by Jessy S on Jun 1, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions

We talked about it when it happened.

I think most people think it’s a fake thing, like Restless Leg Syndrome.

Here’s one.

Here’s two.

by Jesse on Jun 1, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Taking a stab...

1) When Mauer first went on the DL, it was implied that the leg weakness was a combination of not being completely in game shape after his offseason surgery and a nasty stomach bug (he supposedly lost 15 pounds, and it hit Young and Morneau as well). There has also been talk about shoulder problems, although it’s not clear whether they were a separate issue or caused by compensating for the leg problems. Fans are getting a bit impatient, because the underlying cause has never been explicitly disclosed, and the rehab seems to be taking longer than expected with no timetable disclosed either.

2) If he doesn’t go back to being the primary catcher, I’d assume they move him to a corner infield or corner outfield position, just given his size and speed, but no one knows for sure. Morneau, at least pre-injury, has been an excellent defensive first baseman, and DH bats are generally easy to find fairly cheap, so I’d hope neither of those is the answer.

3) There’s been slight consideration of that by the fans (especially with Delmon laying a sizable turd this season), but as Locke mentioned, the Twins have been completely unwilling to discuss any specifics of a potential position switch for Mauer. Also, like Adam Peterson said, most of the Twins’ top prospects are outfielders, so it’s not as beneficial to the team to move him there.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 1, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions

value

In my opinion, the biggest problem with moving Mauer to another position is his contract. At $23 million per year, Mauer is being paid as an ELITE baseball player. At 1B, and probably DH and OF, he would still be above average, but no longer falls into the “best in the game” category that he does as a catcher. In fact, you could make a strong argument that he wouldn’t be the best 1B on the team. Couple that with absolutely NO depth at catcher in the organization, I can’t imagine him moving to a different position in the near future.

All that being said, I am curious to see how well he would hit if he played a different position and didn’t have to go through the grind of catching each season.

Also, I hope he gets back soon.

by markos on Jun 1, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Middle infield

Better hitting, same crappy defense

by DJL44 on Jun 1, 2011 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

The Title Says It All

Can’t believe I didn’t think of this before.

It’s all global warming’s fault!

by dwintheiser on Jun 1, 2011 11:31 AM EDT reply actions

Question for you guys:

Do you see Mauer catching again? If yes, do you see it as a long term thing? I would imagine that he would have to move to first and third. As a Sox fan, the Twins infuriate me often, as a Baseball fan, I want to watch one of the best players in the game play for a long time. I would think that it would be pretty dangerous to expect him to continue in that catching stance for much longer.

by 815Sox on Jun 1, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions

Same questions asked above... are you guys in the same roto league?

People have been talking about Mauer moving to another position since early 2004 when he tore the meniscus in his knees in early April of his rookie season.

One day he’ll stop catching, but we don’t know if that’s this year, next year or 2020. We just play it by ear like you do.

by DavidRF on Jun 1, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually not doing fantasy baseball this year

But I guess I should try the whole reading the whole article thing.. my apologies

by 815Sox on Jun 1, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

But will he stop catching...

…before it’s too late? He’s THE franchise player. If he wants to catch, does the team want to make him unhappy by not allowing it?

by MNPundit on Jun 1, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Winning percentage .321

….as of before today’s game.

by MNPundit on Jun 1, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

What those numbers tell me

is that the Twins were playing significantly better in May. Better enough that they probably shouldn’t have been worse than in April. So, I would go out on a limb and say that nearly all the blame for May goes to the rag-tag group of beer league pitchers in the bullpen. I know the bleeding is unlikely to stop in the bullpen anytime soon though, so I continue to cringe about the rest of the season.

But, my REAL theory about the Twins abysmal season is this: Carbon Monoxide Poisoning. There must be some broken pipes in the bowels of Target Field that are leaking poisonous gas into the home locker room. It explains the sluggishness and lack of coherence. Another Gardyism? Delmon Young swinging like a sleepy puppy? Joe Mauer’s jello legs? No, just oxygen-depleted brains

by al-exx on Jun 1, 2011 4:10 PM EDT reply actions

Twins are always better in second half than first half

I won’t be surprised if we don’t finish in the bottom 5 in MLB standings….. somewhere down there but not that far.

Glen Perkins is throwing 97 MPH in 2011 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! what the hell is he on?

Big fan of Juerys Familia and his repitoire

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jun 1, 2011 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

It will be difficult NOT to be better in the 2nd half this year

I don’t expect a .200 winning percentage in the 2nd half.

by DJL44 on Jun 1, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

It's hard to watch

a team that has been good for a while play so badly so quick. The only way a team goes for a division winner to a cellar dweller is poor management from the front office. If this team loses 100 games this year, and they likely will, a few people in the front office should lose their jobs. With all the miss management of injuries this year, I think some new trainers would be a good idea too.

by doug_2050 on Jun 1, 2011 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs