Blackburn's value

by snolls on Jun 19, 2011 2:34 PM EDT

I was looking over the performance of the Twins various starting pitchers over the last few years, and I think that Blackburn is seriously under-rated by this site. I recognize that the complaints about his contract related to the fact that they didn't NEED to lock him up, but at the end of the day, I think he's been incredibly valuable.

I don't have a good way to calculate performance over a selected period of time (other than manual - do any sites do it easily?), so I've just included a few observations below.

Blackburn - over 3.5 seasons, including 106 starts (660 IP total), he has been paid about $3 million so far (.5m, .5m, .75m, 1/2 of 3 m). He has an era of about 4.3, and averages over IP/GS. Going forward, he'll get about $5 million per year, and can probably be expected to put up an ERA of 4-4.5 over around 200 IP per season.

Liriano, over an extra 5.5 years, has an ERA of 4.0, fewer IP (600), and fewer IP/GS. He's been paid $5.5 million, (currently at $4.5/year). Going forward, expectations depend greatly on whether he'll stay healthy.

Baker has bout 5.5 years in the MLB, being paid about $8 million. His 150 GS get him 6 IP per (900 IP), with an ERA of 4.2. He reliable for 180-200 IP, and his salary will rapidly increase going forward, beginning with $6.5 m next year.

Slowey really has about 3.5 years, including 80 starts, 6 IP/start, and 480 IP total. His ERA is 4.4, and he's earned $3 million. He's never topped 160 IP in a year, and it doesn't look likely in the near future.

Pavano has given the Twins roughly 2 years, $12 million, ERA of 4.1 over 400 IP.

I don't think too many other pitchers really enter the equation over the past 4 years. At the end of the day, I think Blackburn has been as valuable as anyone else, despite us continually talking about his back-of-the-rotation status, and his awful first-half of 2010.

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Wins Above Replacement: a better metric

It’s easy to do a dollar-per WAR analysis of players. I wouldn’t say it’s a standard metric, but I’ve seen it used effectively to argue player value. Here’s a quick lookskie:

2008: 2.2 WAR
2009: 2.8 WAR
2010: -0.7 WAR
2011: already at 1.6

Now the Yanks/Mets pay about $4 MM per WAR, but I would say $2-3 MM would be more realistic for free agents (players under team control are a bargain, naturally). That said, BEFORE we inked Blackie to a contract, he was one hell of a bargain. Now, seeing as he’s only making $3 MM this year, it would be easy to argue that he’s been a good value. But realistically, I expect him to get shelled during one of his costlier years down the line, as is the tendency once players get their service time and are awarded bigger contracts.

If you’re new to WAR, Mauer was 7.9 WAR in his MVP year (2009) and had a “down” year last year of 5.9 WAR. But this was before his $23 MM/year contract, so now basically if he doesn’t deliver 8 WAR a year some Twins fans will continue to piss and moan about his performance.

So in short, yeah, Blackie’s been a good value for us since he’s at 5.3 WAR for a career costing us $4.5 million (including this year’s salary, so it’s bound to get more cost-effective as the year wears on, I’m too lazy to prorate it and all that), costing about $0.85 MM/WAR

Liriano’s given us a career WAR of 8.0 (basically 2006 + 2010) for about $6.7 million through this year, about $0.84 MM/WAR

Baker’s got 12.6 WAR since 2005 and has cost $9.5MM (again including this year, even though it skews expensive), about $0.75 MM/WAR

Slowey’s given 4.3 WAR for 3MM, $0.70 MM/WAR.

Pavano (as a Twin) has given 4.6 WAR so far, which is pretty consistent with free agent rates, but not on the cheap side.

AND don’t forget Duensing! He’s already at 4.1 career WAR and has barely crossed the million-dollar mark! Cheap wins, FTW.

I’d write more, but am going to go watch Super 8. If you’re interested, I was just browsing baseball reference for these numbers.

So yeah, look at WAR per year or venture into ERA+ or xFIP and all that. Better metrics make for better analysis!

by bl4ckduck on Jun 19, 2011 7:22 PM EDT reply actions

I also think baseball reference WAR is pretty good for evaluating pitcher performance.

For what it’s worth, I’d steer clear of Fangraphs’ WAR for pitchers, since it’s strictly FIP-based, and as far as I know, at the end of the season, no one really cares how FIP-tastic a pitcher was if he didn’t also actually prevent runs from crossing the plate. E.g., Slowey has a higher career WAR on Fangraphs than Blackburn even though Slowey has pitched at a higher ERA for almost 200 fewer innings. That’s just dumb; no one really thinks Slowey has actually accomplished more for the Twins than Blackburn.

by Luke in MN on Jun 19, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions

FIP isn't a bad way to help determine value for some pitchers, but it isn't accurate for everyone.

The ability to induce certain types of batted balls is, I believe, a skill. I like SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) a lot for pitchers with heavily skewed batted ball profiles, but Blackburn still consistently outperforms that stat, too.

by funnytrain on Jun 20, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

xFIP takes batted ball types into account

xFIP uses fly ball rate as a proxy for home run rate, so it does give benefits to groundball pitchers (although I’d note that the spread between ground ball rate and line drive rate is not counted). As Luke mentioned below, Blackburn’s career xFIP almost exactly matches his career ERA (4.36 xFIP, 4.32 ERA). He’s had years when he outpitches his xFIP, but they’re balanced out by the years when he doesn’t, and I have a hard time accepting it as a real skill at this point.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 20, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, for me it's the difference between looking forward and looking backward.

I dislike not giving credit to someone for what actually happened to his ERA. Take a guy who has a good ERA, but bad peripherals. I figure there are usually 3 theories that are all hard to prove or disprove:

1. He pitched badly and got lucky. (so he shouldn’t get credit for his low ERA and you’ll expect him to be bad going forward)
2. He has a repeatable skill that’s not systematically observable in the broader population. (so he should get credit for his low ERA and you should expect him to be good going forward)
3. He pitched well, but people with peripherals like that tend not to be able to pitch well consistently over long periods of time. (so he should get credit for his low ERA, but you shouldn’t expect him to be good going forward)

I think theories 2 and 3 are usually plausible enough that you have to give the guy credit (or blame) for what’s already happened. On the other hand, theories 1 and 3 are usually plausible enough that I’d go with peripherals when predicting future performance.

(and yeah, i like the idea of SIERA being a little more inclusive in its assessment of repeatable skills, although it’s a similar animal overall. I came up with my own mix when I did projections this offseason; Ks, BBs, and HRs/FBs are not the end-all be-all of “skill” peripherals, but they’re a pretty powerful part of it).

by Luke in MN on Jun 20, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Better metrics through mere declaration. WAR and xFIP in particular have severe flaws. Now if you’re talking whether they are fashionable, yes they are dominant.

by Salty on Jun 22, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Speaking of "through mere declaration"

Can you lay out some of the specific flaws in WAR and xFIP? I’m not certain what you’re referring to.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

ERA has severe flaws too

by DJL44 on Jun 22, 2011 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

I think Blackburn is very underrated. He’s out pitched is FIP and xFIP for most of his career.

A lot of people were down on him for a horrific couple of months in 2010 and it was understandable. However if you look at the big picture he’s now a pitcher who’s given the twins about 3 years of solid mid rotation pitching. That combined with his durability for the most part makes him very valuable in my opinion. If the Twins fall out of the race though I’d be very interested to see what he could bring in a trade. If he can keep this up for another month his value would have to be at an all time high.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 19, 2011 7:53 PM EDT reply actions

If Blackburn can follow up his mid-5.00s ERA season with a 3.00-something ERA season like he has so far,

I think he’ll get plenty of love. But unlike Slowey, Baker, and especially Liriano, who all seem like they haven’t really reached their potential, there’s a sense that Blackburn basically has—like it can only be downhill going forward—since he gets so few strikeouts and hasn’t really limited homers that well. But this could be a nice season for Blackburn to show he has more tricks up his sleeve. Short of that, I think his contract is fine as long as he stays healthy and keeps the ERA south of the high 4.00s.

by Luke in MN on Jun 19, 2011 11:28 PM EDT reply actions

"Downhill going forward"

The problem is, we’ve been hearing that for the past several years now. I’ll grant the horrible hiccup in the middle of last season, but how long does it take before people just accept that he can pitch?

by gbg on Jun 20, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

At some point a pitcher is just better than their peripherals. Mark Buerhle is the best example of that pitcher. While your pure sabrmetricians don’t really seem to believe in someone being clutch, I think it’s a very real thing in all sports. Some guys step up in big situations and some guys flounder.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 20, 2011 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think his peripherals are destiny, but I think they put a cap on his potential.

It’s far too inexact a science to say that some pitcher just isn’t ever going to be able to pitch under his FIP/xFIP by 30 or 40 points or so. Yeah, Buehrle’s a great example. In fact, Blackburn’s career FIP (which just measures Ks, BBs, and HRs) is somewhat high (4.57), but his career xFIP (the same as FIP except measuring fly ball % instead of HRs) is right in line with his career ERA, 4.36 and 4.32. There’s nothing really that weird about any of those numbers from a statistical perspective.

But I don’t think he can be a low-3.00s ERA pitcher for long periods of time. I give him full credit for doing it so far this year; it’s just that I think he has to do everything so perfectly that it’s unlikely to continue. Even if you’re clutch you can’t keep hitting that buzzer-beater over and over and over. Can be a high-3.00s ERA pitcher? Probably when he’s healthy and things are clicking. For what it’s worth, his xFIP backs it up this year and suggests he’s pitching better than he ever has.

by Luke in MN on Jun 20, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

I can agree with this

I’ve been defending Blackburn for quite some time and I’ll never claim him to be an Ace. Do I think he may be that mythical “clutch” statistic. Yes I do on some level. I also think he’s better than his peripherals would suggest but I agree in no way is he as good as he’s been so far this year. He’s a solid mid rotation starter who had a poor couple months last year, well horrific couple months would be the best way to put it.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Jun 20, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

Retrospective

This was the reason I wrote this post (also the reason I simplified away from WAR – I don’t know who uses what to calculate WAR).

I’m only looking at how he has performed, not how he will. Even when he was considered a top Twins prospect, everyone granted that he was, at best, a back of the rotation starter based on his K & BB / 9. But, looking at what he’s done so far (especially if you remove the half-year hiccup), he’s been very good, in terms of runs allowed. This isn’t a projection, just recognition that he’s controlled what he could in the past.

by snolls on Jun 21, 2011 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Blackburn has been throwing fewer fastballs and more changeups.

I think that’s been a factor in his effectiveness.

by funnytrain on Jun 20, 2011 10:36 AM EDT reply actions

As the resident Blackburn fan around here (besides halfchest)

I approve.

Baseball reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.-Terence Mann/James Earl Jones in FoD

by Twins33 on Jun 20, 2011 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Blackburn really looked like he was falling off the table last year.

And I think it was reasonable for us to be somewhat down on the contract, as, like you say, signing him to a long-term deal wasn’t really necessary. But I was looking at that contract last week and it actually looks pretty reasonable if he can put in a couple more years (including this one) at a 2008-ish level. It’s tempting to see him taking a step forward this year, but I don’t really see it. I haven’t checked the data, but it seems to me he’s running really well in home plate umpire draws, and that’s something that can make a big difference to him.

Given the logjam, the contract, and how hot he’s been, if it weren’t for the winning streak I’d be advocating to trade him. We can yammer about Cuddyer and Slowey and Capps, but with his performance this year Blackburn is the one guy I can see bringing back a legitimate return. And I think he’s still as likely to blow up again as he is to pitch well through the end of his deal.

by timprov on Jun 21, 2011 2:52 AM EDT reply actions

For all the sh*t I've given Blackie, he's done well and never really let us down in a big way

And no, I don’t hold 2008 Game 163 against him. One bad pitch to Thome is nothing to fume about, in my view. It was one of those “whoever blinks first”-type games anyway.

I think my mental block to him has come from wanting the Twins to have more power and strikeout pitchers, and Blackburn is arguably the most complete example of the groundball college pitcher they’ve leaned towards. But when he’s been effective he’s helped the team out tremendously and I’m more pleased with him now more than ever.

And because I’m too lazy to check, how long does his contract go for again? As timprov said, he probably could produce a good return right now. But I’m more inclined to trade Slowey right now, and in the offseason relinquishing Nathan and Thome (and perhaps others) to free up more money.

When I was a kid, I would cover a blue futon with a white blanket, prop it up with a fan set on high, and pretend it was the Metrodome. That should tell you a lot.

by MarshalltheIrish on Jun 21, 2011 6:04 PM EDT reply actions

It goes through 2013

There is also a team option for 2014

by John_Locke on Jun 21, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions

$4.75m next year, $5.5m 2013, $8m club option (no buyout) 2014.

by timprov on Jun 21, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not bad

It looks like it will work out fine (i.e. if we were singing him to an extension now, I would be happy with that).

That doesn’t mean it WAS a good idea at the time; again, I was only looking backwards, and I think ERA is my preferred stat to measure a pitcher’s retrospective contribution. the FIP/xFIP and peripheral stats may be much better for predicting future ERA, which is a good predictor of a pitcher’s impact on team wins, but I don’t think K or BB or GB% or HR/FB or anything like that matters if they kept runs of the board.

I actually think we’ll end up exercising that option, if I had to guess. We may even end up trading Blackburn away, if there’s a good market, but I doubt it.

I hope the team finds a way to incorporate Slowey in a useful way. My thought is “second starter” – he should generally know which days he’ll relieve, but pitch 3 innings behind the 4/5 rotation guys. He could be a very good reliever if he learns to pitch without having a schedule.

by snolls on Jun 22, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions