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Michael Cuddyer: One-Third Albert Pujols, Two-Thirds Alberto Callaspo

Michael Cuddyer's tremendous play in June has all but erased his dismal start to the season.  After hitting a combined 262/322/372 in April and May, Cuddyer has destroyed opposing pitchers over the past three weeks, hitting 333/403/683 and raising his season OPS to a respectable .794.

Judging solely by OPS, Cuddyer's 2011 season looks right at home with the rest of his career:

Cuddyer_ops_by_season_medium

Ignoring the dip in 2008 - during which he played just 71 games, posting a .699 OPS battling through multiple, painful finger injuries - Cuddyer's career has roughly fit with what we would expect from a normal aging curve.  His best seasons came at 27, 28, and 30, and his last two seasons (age 31 and 32) look remarkably similar to the two seasons that immediately preceded his "peak" years (ages 25 and 26).

If we look a little deeper, however, we find a much more interesting pattern developing in Cuddyer's career, a pattern that could have a tremendous impact on his future with the Twins and his role on any Major League ball club.  Cuddyer, who has never hit right-handed pitching all that well, has seen his platoon splits swell over the past three seasons.

Read more after the jump:

Star-divide

See the chart below, which shows Cuddyer's wOBA against both right and left-handed pitchers during his seasons as a full-time player:

Cuddyer_woba_medium

Now here is a chart that just shows the "split" between's Cuddyer's performance against right-handed and left-handed pitching (simply subtracting his wOBA against RHPs from his wOBA against LHPs):

Cuddyer_s_platoon_split_medium

These graphs tell a pretty compelling story.  As Cuddyer has aged, he's steadily posted worse numbers against right-handed pitching.  At the same time, he's become of the premier lefty-mashers in the game.  The gap has almost been ridiculous in 2011: against right-handers, Cuddyer is hitting just 244/290/356.  Against lefties? 379/474/712.  While we shouldn't expect this size of disparity to continue (Cuddyer's BABIP is a full 100 points higher against left-handers, for one thing), it's clear that Cuddyer's platoon split has grown wider as he's aged.

To help put this in perspective, I put together one additional chart.  This show's Cuddyer's rank in wOBA compared to other outfielders that have qualified for the batting title over the past three seasons. 

Rank among MLB OFers

wOBA vs. LHP

wOBA vs. RHP

# of qualifying OFers

2009

8

34

68

2010

18

51

65

2011

2

60

69

2009-11

2

46

62

Over the past three seasons, only one other outfielder has done a better job hitting left-handed pitching than Michael Cuddyer: Justin Upton.  In fact, going beyond just other outfielders, Cuddyer's .415 wOBA against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons ranks 7th in all of baseball, behind Kevin Youkilis, David Wright, Paul Konerko, Albert Pujols, Mike Napoli, and Upton.  Of course, against right-handers he ranks 105th (out of 142 qualifying players), sandwiched between Adam Kennedy, Orlando Hudson, and Alberto Callaspo.

In other words, over the past three seasons Michael Cuddyer has spent one-third of his plate appearances hitting left-handers like Albert Pujols, and the other two-thirds hitting right-handers like Alberto Callaspo.  And, as we've seen, the disparity seems to be growing wider.

Michael Cuddyer's future with the Minnesota Twins is clearly up in the air.  If the Twins recent resurgence falters and the team finds itself as a seller in July, he will certainly be one of the names Bill Smith is asked about by opposing GMs (in fact, it seems the calls may have already started to come in).  Even if the Twins keep Cuddyer through the season, he's due to become a free agent at the end of the season, and looks as though he'll be near the top of a questionable free agent class of outfielders.

Given these looming decisions, it's critical that the Twins recognize what they have in Cuddyer.  Without question, he is one of the best hitters in the game against left-handed pitching.  However, at 32, it's fair to wonder if his struggles against right-handers mean his days as an everyday corner outfielder may be limited.  I mean, if Alberto Callaspo was a corner outfielder with limited range, would Mike Scioscia write his name on the lineup card everyday?

Comment 25 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Kubel dominates RHP

Kubel v RHP: .336 / .379 / .522 / .902
Kubel v LHP: .258 / .306 / .348 / .654

Platoon Kubel and Cuddyer and you have an MVP right fielder.

by DJL44 on Jun 22, 2011 11:26 AM EDT reply actions  

I hadn't even noticed the disparity this season

Having crazy streaks from random players has distracted me, I guess. It’s interesting – like DJL44 points out, it would be nice (though unlikely) if Gardy could find a way to mix and match him with Kubel when the roster gets healthy. We will have a pretty cluttered outfield trying to get Cuddy in there everyday anyway.

by dctwin on Jun 22, 2011 12:24 PM EDT reply actions  

The team has been nothing but streaks for

 a decade or more. Gotta cut through it to look at the numbers.

by MNPundit on Jun 22, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

huh.

wow?
wtf?

How come you never see the headline "Psychic wins lottery"?

by montanatwinsfan on Jun 22, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Me thinks someone has been drinking already.

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy!!!

by bf4mvp on Jun 22, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

(applauds)

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jun 22, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

rec'd

for the

flaw in his batting that could be changed and make him a fearsome switch hitter well into his 40’s.

...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP

by BCTwins on Jun 22, 2011 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like this part too:

it is clear that he has batted better left handed.

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Jun 22, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

rec'd

the batting flaw is likely that he does his magic tricks right handed and those magic tricks teach him how to deceive pitchers but only with that hand

"Nobody wants to hear me rap." - Joe Mauer
"METEOR" - JIM THOME

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jun 22, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

A lot of your comments make me roll my eyes

But I’ll be damned if you don’t say some hilarious things every so often. Whether its intentional is anyones guess.

by Caulfield on Jun 22, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good thing the Twins have a manager who recognizes...

obvious platoon opportunities and doesn’t hesitate to act on them. Unless of course obvious platoon candidates are just on the cusp of figuring out same-side pitching. Which they perennially are.

I think there are sample size issues in play here and very much doubt Cuddyer’s true talent v. LHP is actually better than it was in 2006-2007. Of course, his 2006-2007 numbers may have been (more or less randomly) below his true talent level then, so it may be moot as a practical matter. Regardless, it’s not shocking (and hence not necessarily indicative of a trend/new talent level) that a sample size of less than half a season produces an aberrant number of whatever sort, platoon split included.

Still: yeah, he’s significantly better v. LHP.

by tobynotjason on Jun 22, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Argument for keeping Cuddyer

The fact that he hits lefties coupled with his ability to play 1B occasionally makes him valuable to the Twins. The top outfield prospects (Tosoni, Revere, Parmelee) closest to the majors are lefthanded hitters with the notable exception of Joe Benson.

I’d be fine if they dumped Delmon Young this offseason and gave the $$ to Cuddyer.

by DJL44 on Jun 22, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

$$$

His contract would still have to come down (how much would he need to stay?), but yeah, if they traded Young, and platooned Kubel/Cuddyer, I’d be happy. It is painful to watch Kubel hit against Lefties.

by snolls on Jun 22, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I didn't say anything about keeping Kubel

Kubel might be the #2 free agent outfielder after Carlos Beltran and he should have no interest in taking a Twins discount. I’m not sure they can afford both of them. The Twins have plenty of options for a lefthanded hitting outfielder and they can find a new DH.

Cuddyer is still going to have to take a 50% paycut to stay.

This is like the situation with the relief corps last year. They should have kept one of Rauch, Crain or Guerrier. They’ll need to keep one of Cuddyer, Kubel or Delmon.

by DJL44 on Jun 22, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

With his recent success at the plate

I am growing more okay with the idea that Cuddyer looks to be our allstar representative.

by twinscrazy_german on Jun 22, 2011 4:11 PM EDT reply actions  

Cuddyer

For years it has seemed to me that he is most valuable to the Twins because of their lefthandedness and Cuddy’s ability to play multiple positions. I don’t think he would be easy to replace and I think he will benefit whatever team he plays for next year. I think Cuddy is going to age well and if he does, he is going to be worth it for whoever signs him next year.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Jun 23, 2011 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

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