Trade Deadline Thread

so with that said, here are the current Elias projections:

Cuddyer: Solidly Type A
Kubel: Barely misses Type A cut, but only because of time missed. If he’s back soon, probably fairly solidly Type A.
Capps: Solidly Type A.
Nathan: misses Type A and B cut, but could rebound to make Type B cut. We could decline his option and offer him arbitration.

Others of note:
Slowey: Would barely miss the Type B cut right now, even with all the time missed. If given a rotation spot again, would be at least solidly Type B in all likelihood and could rebuild value the next couple of years as he’s under control for a while longer.
Blackburn: not even close to Type B. Kind of sucks.
Delmon Young: Would actually be the last guy to make Type A status from the OF/1b/DH group, currently. So with a decent year this year and next, would be Type A as a FA after 2012.

So from the above, my plan would be to:

Trade Blackburn for a decent reliever from an NL club. He has more trade value than Slowey currently, but is a worse pitcher (IMO) and is older, and has no chance at earning compensation. Plus with his contract he is slightly more expensive than Slowey figures to be over the next few years. I’d keep Slowey and try to rebuild his value, ala Perkins. We’d be selling him at his absolute lowest value by trading him now. Stupid.

Insert Gibson into the rotation and put Duensing in the pen. This has always been a better fit for him, IMO. And would really strengthen the pen without hurting the rotation IMO. Plus you’d still have Swarzak in relief.

So after those, your rotation is no worse; maybe even better. You still have insurance for ineffectiveness/injury in Swarzak (or Duensing, for that matter), and your pen goes from a weakness to a relative strength.

Cuddy and Kubel; keep them unless you get an offer at least commensurate with what you’d get in FA compensation after this year. If you don’t, hold on to them and have them help you make the playoffs. Both will likely be Type A FA’s, and given the FA market this year in the OF, I think you can make a good argument these are the two most attractive options out of anyone in baseball, considering age/talent. For instance, Beltran’s on the market, but he’s going to be 36. Kubel’s in his prime, and Cuddy’s just past it. Someone will sign them away from us. So even if you lose both (re-sign neither) you have gained 4 top 40 picks in the 2012 draft. Failing that, I’d actually try to work Kubel in at 1b and sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal as an insurance policy for Morneau at 1b/work at DH/work in a corner OF spot until Benson/Hicks/Arcia are ready. But he may want to test the FA market; don’t blame him; he’ll be the most sought after OF on the FA market this year given his age, IMO.

Delmon: I go back and forth on this a bit; used to think he should be dealt. BUT he usually hits well in the 2nd half ,and can help us this year. And even though it might be slightly overpaying to offer him arbitration for 2012, that’s probably what I’d do. He gives you insurance in case you lose both Cuddyer and Kubel (all 3 are not really all that different from each other). And we’d have him in a contract year and the chance that he builds some value to offer Type A arbitration after 2012, collecting 2 more top 40 picks. Remember, it only takes 1 team. And the “downside” to offering arbitration is that you have a player for 1 year, again, in a contract year. There’s the old addage that there’s no such thing as a bad 1-year contract. And I tend to agree with that.

Capps; similar to Delmon really. I don’t like the guy, I think money could be better spent elsewhere, but I’d offer him arbitration after the season if he has a decent finish. He’ll be a Type A FA and it only takes one team to sign him away; and I think one will. Either a decent club that wants him as a setup man (so we’d get a late 1st rd pick plus a supplemental pick) or a bad team that wants him as a stopgap closer (so we’d get a 2nd rd pick plus a supplemental pick). I’d take the risk.

Nathan; if he looks like he’s rebounded (I have hopes) tear up his 2012 option and try to re-sign him to a 2-3 year $7-8M/yr contract or so. I think I’d do that.

For trades this year in terms of helping the club, I’d look at cheap (ie not Heath Bell, or Ramos/Capps types of ridiculously lopsided deals) deals for a reliever or two to bridge the gap to the kids. But nothing overpaying.

Longwinded I know, but that would be my plan.