Trade Deadline Thread
As the Twins inch closer and closer to the AL Central lead, we as Twin's fans gain more and more hope concerning this current season. Unfortunately, reasonable Twins fans can see that coming back and barely winning the AL Central doesn't make our team favorites to beat the Yankees or the Red Sox. This is what I would like to be done at the trade deadline and in the offseason. Also, consider this an opportunity to trade your trade ideas and offseason strategies.
Let's review our major league trade assets as of right now. Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Slowey, Liriano, and Thome could all be traded for valuable pieces.
Kubel - His foot injury has made his trade value fall drastically. His value to our team this year, when he comes back, is worth more than any marginal prospect we can receive in return.
Cuddyer - It's just not going to happen even if he is our most valuable trade chip. Cuddyer and the Twins mutually love each other and that's not going to change anytime soon.
Thome - What we will get from Thome, lots of homeruns and publicity, outweighs a player to be named later in any trade.
Liriano - My personal belief with Liriano is that his complete loss of control and inconsistency will make teams stray away from overpaying for him. Liriano has a chance to be a great pitcher. He is worth a lot less now than his value last year. We can probably resign him relatively cheap after this year. I see him having a James Shields type turnaround next season and I hope that season is with the Twins.
Trade Proposal 1 - Minnesota trades: Kevin Slowey
Cincinnati trades : Ryan Hanigan
Slowey has no place in this organization anymore and will be traded. Cincinnati has had trouble keeping their rotation healthy and is looking for another starter. With Ramon Hernandez and a glut of catching prospects in the minors, Hanigan (who's locked up for 2 years after this for cheap) is expendable. He can immediately step in and be a quality back-up catcher to Joe Mauer.
Trade Proposal 2 - Minnesota Trades: Delmon Young and Anthony Swarzak
Philadelphia Trades: Michael Stutes and Cesar Hernandez
Michael Stutes has been a consistent bullpen arm for Philly this year and the Twins need bullpen arms. The Twins also could use some minor league potential in the middle infield and Hernandez fits the bill. Hernandez has a .258/.296/.326 line in Class A+. The line isn't awe inspiring but he has decent power potential and speed. In return we give Philly what they want, a righty bat in Delmon Young. To make the deal better for Philly we add Swarzak. Gibson can replace Swarzak's role on the 2011 team and Philly needs a starter due to Oswalt's injury and the inconsistency of their 5s.
These are just some ideas I had. What are some of yours?
18 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I think it's important to keep in mind FA compensation when thinking about trades...
so with that said, here are the current Elias projections:
Cuddyer: Solidly Type A
Kubel: Barely misses Type A cut, but only because of time missed. If he’s back soon, probably fairly solidly Type A.
Capps: Solidly Type A.
Nathan: misses Type A and B cut, but could rebound to make Type B cut. We could decline his option and offer him arbitration.
Others of note:
Slowey: Would barely miss the Type B cut right now, even with all the time missed. If given a rotation spot again, would be at least solidly Type B in all likelihood and could rebuild value the next couple of years as he’s under control for a while longer.
Blackburn: not even close to Type B. Kind of sucks.
Delmon Young: Would actually be the last guy to make Type A status from the OF/1b/DH group, currently. So with a decent year this year and next, would be Type A as a FA after 2012.
So from the above, my plan would be to:
Trade Blackburn for a decent reliever from an NL club. He has more trade value than Slowey currently, but is a worse pitcher (IMO) and is older, and has no chance at earning compensation. Plus with his contract he is slightly more expensive than Slowey figures to be over the next few years. I’d keep Slowey and try to rebuild his value, ala Perkins. We’d be selling him at his absolute lowest value by trading him now. Stupid.
Insert Gibson into the rotation and put Duensing in the pen. This has always been a better fit for him, IMO. And would really strengthen the pen without hurting the rotation IMO. Plus you’d still have Swarzak in relief.
So after those, your rotation is no worse; maybe even better. You still have insurance for ineffectiveness/injury in Swarzak (or Duensing, for that matter), and your pen goes from a weakness to a relative strength.
Cuddy and Kubel; keep them unless you get an offer at least commensurate with what you’d get in FA compensation after this year. If you don’t, hold on to them and have them help you make the playoffs. Both will likely be Type A FA’s, and given the FA market this year in the OF, I think you can make a good argument these are the two most attractive options out of anyone in baseball, considering age/talent. For instance, Beltran’s on the market, but he’s going to be 36. Kubel’s in his prime, and Cuddy’s just past it. Someone will sign them away from us. So even if you lose both (re-sign neither) you have gained 4 top 40 picks in the 2012 draft. Failing that, I’d actually try to work Kubel in at 1b and sign him to a reasonable 2-3 year deal as an insurance policy for Morneau at 1b/work at DH/work in a corner OF spot until Benson/Hicks/Arcia are ready. But he may want to test the FA market; don’t blame him; he’ll be the most sought after OF on the FA market this year given his age, IMO.
Delmon: I go back and forth on this a bit; used to think he should be dealt. BUT he usually hits well in the 2nd half ,and can help us this year. And even though it might be slightly overpaying to offer him arbitration for 2012, that’s probably what I’d do. He gives you insurance in case you lose both Cuddyer and Kubel (all 3 are not really all that different from each other). And we’d have him in a contract year and the chance that he builds some value to offer Type A arbitration after 2012, collecting 2 more top 40 picks. Remember, it only takes 1 team. And the “downside” to offering arbitration is that you have a player for 1 year, again, in a contract year. There’s the old addage that there’s no such thing as a bad 1-year contract. And I tend to agree with that.
Capps; similar to Delmon really. I don’t like the guy, I think money could be better spent elsewhere, but I’d offer him arbitration after the season if he has a decent finish. He’ll be a Type A FA and it only takes one team to sign him away; and I think one will. Either a decent club that wants him as a setup man (so we’d get a late 1st rd pick plus a supplemental pick) or a bad team that wants him as a stopgap closer (so we’d get a 2nd rd pick plus a supplemental pick). I’d take the risk.
Nathan; if he looks like he’s rebounded (I have hopes) tear up his 2012 option and try to re-sign him to a 2-3 year $7-8M/yr contract or so. I think I’d do that.
For trades this year in terms of helping the club, I’d look at cheap (ie not Heath Bell, or Ramos/Capps types of ridiculously lopsided deals) deals for a reliever or two to bridge the gap to the kids. But nothing overpaying.
Longwinded I know, but that would be my plan.
by DJSkillz on Jul 15, 2011 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Nick Blackburn = NOT sucky.
Yes, his K/BB rate is horrendous. But his long track record, (excluding his first half of last year when he was injured), is pretty solid. He’s one of those rare guys that can get away with low K rates. Granted, they shouldn’t have given him the guaranteed contract, but the price isn’t terrible.
"I wanted to do it because it's fun, it's fun to do bad things and drive into a car."
by PurplePeopleEaters on Jul 15, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Just not a fan of Blackburn at all, never have been, never will be...
He’s just way too hittable. And he is Gardy’s pitcher version of Drew Butera/Nick Punto. He gives him way too many chances. Leaving him in that Chicago game way too long, putting him in the playoff rotation ahead of Baker, awarding him a rotation spot this year (somehow) before ST even began over Baker and Slowey, etc.
And really, go back and look at his career vs. Silva’s as a Twin. Eerily similar, across the board. Both pitched their age 25-29 seasons with us. And the numbers, in almost every single category, are almost identical. Similar, crappy stuff too. Actually Silva was slightly better than Blackburn is, but it’s really, really close.
You mean the game in Chicago where he got crushed in the first inning...
…then threw 4 innings of shutout ball? Those 5 innings were too long? One hit in each of the 2nd through 5th innings was too dangerous in a game we took the lead on in the 4th?
He threw 106 pitches!!! Oh no!!!!
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Jul 19, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I just don't agree with the Slowey argument
What your saying makes sense but when it comes to Slowey, the Twins management and front office don’t make sense.
by Coolio12 on Jul 15, 2011 5:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"There's no such thing as a bad one year contract"
Matt Capps begs to differ. Kubel might, but I really don’t see Cuddy turning down arb.
Sounds like we're buyers
buyers with caution I might add….
Span will be back soon, so I could see our lineup turn into
Young, Revere, Span
Valencia, Nishioka, Casilla, Cuddyer
Mauer
DH = Thome / Plouffe
and to be honest with Kubel, Morneau inching their way back there really isn’t a spot we need to trade FOR is there?
Pitching is a different story…. I could see us pick up a Bullpen arm…. and thats really about it.
Unless we did indeed decide to deal Cuddyer, going for the better younger long-term talent that could put us over the top in 2012 or 2013 (touugh tough spot right now, when the Royals, Indians look really good next year///on paper)
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 15, 2011 5:37 PM EDT reply actions
They don't necessarily have to trade
for a relief pitcher either – they just need to shake the bullpen up a bit.
Mijares (sent down) – James (called up)
Dumatrait (sent down) – Slama (DL)/Waldrop (called up) - Waldrop added to 40-man, drop Erik Hacker
Burnett (sent down) – Jim Hoey (called up)
Capps moved to low leverage situations.
Closer: Nathan
Strong Setup: Perkins
Secondary Setup: Slama/Capps
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
by BCTwins on Jul 15, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
they could bite at
Mike Adams however, but I would be cautious since he is pitching in Petco – so his stats are most likely inflated a bit. However, interesting candidate to snap at and see if we could pick up.
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
Yeah that would be an awesome one, though I thought
The Padres were going to be trading Heath Bell first.
And then naturally Adams would take over the closer role , just like Bell did for Hoffman a few years back.
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 15, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe they are listening
to offers for Adams though. IMO, Adams will be a lot cheaper in terms of talent!
...formerly known as 33MorneauMVP
Anyone know how many years of team control Adams has?
by Coolio12 on Jul 16, 2011 11:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
One more year of arbitration
According to Cots, he had 4 years, 19 days of service time heading into this season. It would be advantageous to get someone who has either some team control or is signed to a contract or has an option for next season. One less hole to take care of during the winter.
by matthew0211 on Jul 16, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather add an another proven guy
Than just bringing up 3 minor leaguers, albeit 3 more deserving minor leaguers.
by Coolio12 on Jul 15, 2011 7:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If Jim Hoey is the answer,
I don’t want to know the question.
by matthew0211 on Jul 16, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Slowey and Young for Adams and Darnell and PTBL?
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 15, 2011 7:16 PM EDT reply actions
Souhan just said Slowey for Rauch straight up
It’d be an upgrade, considering Slowey is completely useless
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Jul 18, 2011 8:13 PM EDT reply actions

by 



























