When Should Top Twins Prospects Reach the Major Leagues?

With Beau out of action today due to something called "a special session" in which he may not sleep at home for the next far too many hours, you're stuck with me this morning. That's okay though because I've got something fun for you today. And the inspiration came from MLB Bonus Baby, SB Nation's site for all things draft related. If you're wondering how MLB Bonux Baby works for us, here's their Minnesota Twins draft report.

One of the other interesting posts they've done recently is where they've posted the results of some research they've done, in which they determine how long prospects take to get to the Major Leagues. Matt Garioch covered overall averages by position in that post, but of even more interest is where he broke it down by draftee status (prep, juco, four-year), by position and by skill level (from all-time great all the way down to career minor leaguer).

So if you've been wondering when Aaron Hicks should arrive, or Kyle Gibson or Miguel Sano or Joe Benson or Liam Hendriks or Chris Parmelee or Levi Michael should arrive, this is a good barometer of whether or not they're "on track". After the jump we'll predict arrivals for a few of the more intriguing Twins prospects based off those averages.

Obviously I'm posting the disclaimer that all players develop differently. This is just a fun guide, and is probably more interesting for players in the lower echelons of the minors who still have multiple seasons left to go.

First, we'll steal one of the charts - the one I'll use for our purposes today.

Based off this list, we're making assumptions that our 16-year old international signings qualify as prep/high school picks and will accordingly add one or two years to their wait time, and that collegiate draftees between the ages of 18 and 20 will qualify as junior college selections. Let's look at the Twins first-round pick from 2011, as well as Twinkie Town's top ten prospects (minus Ben Revere, who has graduated the list, and plus Chris Parmelee...because I said so).

Levi Michael, SS/2B
Drafted: 2011     Age: 20
Predicted Arrival SS: 2016
Predicted Arrival 2B: 2015

Both of those predictions are likely high for Michael, who was one of the most polished infielders in the draft. In terms of "who he is" versus "who he'll become", there doesn't seem to be as much of a gap for a player you'd normally expect who is drafted in his age-20 season. But Michael will spend all of 2012 in the Twins system, and likely all of 2013 as well. Until his development shows otherwise, I'd expect his Minnesota debut to come between late 2014 and early 2015.

Kyle Gibson, RHP
Drafted: 2009     Age: 21
Predicted Arrival: 2012

This is clearly a case where the player will be arriving prior to the chart. Where Michael's future has some room for flexibility, considering he hasn't even started playing for the Twins in the minors yet, Gibson will definitely make his debut with the Twins this September if not before. If he's not a permanent member of the rotation by the middle of next summer I think we'll all be surprised.

Aaron Hicks, OF
Drafted: 2008     Age: 18
Predicted Arrival: 2013

Whenever you draft a guy with as many tools as Hicks, you dream that he'll progress quickly and that he'll make his Major League debut at an impressive age like 21 or 22. Right now it seems that the earliest we'll see him in a Twins uniform is the average five-plus years, in 2013...at the ripe old age of 23. He's playing well in high-A Fort Myers, and if he can turn around his July and hit like he did in May and June again, I don't think it's out of the question for Minnesota to want to see what he looks like against double-A competition towards the end of the season. But they will continue to move him slowly, which probably means that if we do see him in '13 it won't be from opening day. (Somebody save this post and show it to me in March of 2013, in case I'm really wrong about a lot of stuff.)

Miguel Sano, SS/3B
Signed: 2009     Age: 16
Predicted Arrival as 3B: 2015
Predicted Arrival as SS/OF/1B: 2016

If Sano is as talented as people continue to say he is, he's not going to take this long. Six or seven years coming through the Minnesota system would mean he'd be just 22 or 23 years old in his projected debut season, which isn't old for a rookie in baseball by any means, but everything I've read says Sano has potential to be a truly great hitter. So I'll say it again: if he develops in line with even 70% of his expectations, I don't think 2014 is too early. It would give him all of 2012, 2013 and (probably) most of 2014 to climb through the system and make a mid-year or September call-up at age 21. Am I being optimistic? Probably. But if there's one guy you'd want to be really optimistic about in the minors, Sano isn't a bad guy to choose.

Alex Wimmers, RHP
Drafted: 2010     Age: 21
Predicted Arrival: 2013

Wimmers has flashed a chink in his armor this year, but as a 21-year old last season he was dropped right into high-A For Myers and he more than held his own. He was awesome in his 15.2 innings, striking out 23, walking five and allowing just six hits. If the Twins can get him back on track by the end of this season, a fast rise isn't unthinkable and he could still make his Minnesota debut at some point in 2013. He'd be just 24.

Joe Benson, OF
Drafted: 2006     Age: 18
Predicted Arrival: 2011

Benson is already on the 40-man roster. While he has a lot of depth chart to overcome in order to be in line for regular call-ups (Rene Tosoni, Ben Revere, Jason Repko and all the rest already make for a glut of options), Benson is almost a sure bet to be brought up in September for a cup of coffee. He'll spend most of 2012 in triple-A, there isn't any doubt about that, but he's certainly right on track with this list in terms of his ETA. Once we get to September, I think we'd better get used to seeing Benson in a Twins uniform. It won't be on a regular basis, but being able to see him while guaranteeing that most of his time will still be spent as a starter in Rochester - neither of these things are bad things. Benson could be very good.

Oswaldo Arcia, OF
Signed: 2007     Age: 16
Predicted Arrival: 2014

As a 20-year old, Arcia is already playing well in Fort Myers thanks to just 20 great games in Beloit. He only has New Britain and Rochester to go between there and Minnesota, so it won't be a surprise to see him prior to his '14 estimation. If he continues to play well he should spend most if not all of 2012 in double-A, and if he's added to the 40-man roster for 2013 he could be in line for a September call-up. If that comes to pass he'd make his Major League debut in his age-22 season, but there'd certainly be no shame in seeing him make an impact one year later. Another potential high-ceiling guy. Another potential high-ceiling outfielder.

Liam Hendriks, RHP
Signed: 2007     Age: 18
Predicted Arrival: 2012

This one could be right on target. We saw him playing last week in the Futures game for the World Team, and he's pitching well for double-A New Britain this year. Whether it's the end of this year or some point next season he will be pitching for the Red Wings in triple-A, and from there he's just a phone call away. I think 2012 is right on the button for Hendriks.

Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF
Signed: 2009     Age: 16
Predicted Arrival: 2016

Lost in the clamor of the Sano signing  in 2009 was the Keplyer-Rozycki signing, and it could be another big one. He played well in one Twins rookie league last season, and is doing alright in another rookie league this season, but he does have a long way to go. Assuming he stays in Elizabethton all season and then progresses one level per season after, he'd be right on pace for a debut with the Twins in 2016. If he fills out (last I read he was listed at 6-4, 180) and proves that he can handle his competition the Twins might move him a bit quicker, but right now it's easy seeing patience as a virtue. Besides, in '16 Kepler-Rozycki would be just 23 years old.

Angel Morales, OF
Drafted: 2007     Age: 17
Predicted Arrival: 2013

A massive talent who is still incredibly raw, Morales unfortunately was bit by the injury bug this year. That might slow his ladder climb just a bit. He destroyed single-A pitchers last season, but his power was sapped a bit when he was promoted to high-A, so I was really looking forward to seeing what he could do with a full season at that level. We'll have to see what he looks like by season's end. Right now though, I'd say '13 might be a little early unless he A) stays on the field, B) stops striking out so much, and C) hits so well the organization can't ignore him. He's an interesting one for me, stay tuned.

Adrian Salcedo, RHP
Signed: 2007     Age: 16
Predicted Arrival: 2014

This would hold with Salcedo advancing one level per season, as he's currently pitching for single-A Beloit. His strikeouts are down and walks are up since he left the rookie leagues, but he's still just 20 years old and has a few years to go.

Chris Parmelee, 1B/OF/DH
Drafted: 2006     Age: 18
Predicted Arrival (for all positions): 2011

While Parmelee has yet to play above double-A, he continues to develop well. Slowly, but surely. He had a higher OPS in his full season at Beloit in '08, but in terms off contact, plate discipline and power he's having his best all-around season this year. Parmelee is also on the 40-man roster, and I for one think it would be a lot of fun to see how he'd respond to Major League pitching in September. The Twins might choose to wait until next season, but at age-23 and with a player of his skills I don't think it would hurt to drop him in the fire and see how he does in a cup of coffee.

What do you think - is this chart accurate? Well, obviously it is as they ran the math and it seems to match up pretty well with the eleven players we've selected. But what other players are you interested in seeing and when might they appear?