Twins Trade Rumors: Nationals Interested in Denard Span
by Jesse on Jul 25, 2011 7:11 PM EDT
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PrintAw, hell no. That's pretty much my three-word subjective analysis of this factoid. Check out a little more after the jump, but remember Jon's game thread is directly below.
Seriously, how on God's green earth could trading Denard Span possibly turn out in the Twins' favor? Particularly when we already know that the Nationals aren't interested in dealing Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard, it's pretty obvious that basing a package around Ian Desmond is about as big of a mistake as you could ask for. And I'll be honest: understanding exactly how valuable Span is right now, Storen AND Clippard is barely a win for me. Look up their numbers. I'd certainly have to think about it. Maybe that's me being over protective of "one of our guys", or maybe I'm over valuing a good leadoff hitter and center fielder or maybe I'm undervaluing good young pitching, but that's how I see it. Ultimately I'd probably pull the trigger for Storen and Clippard, but basing a package around Desmond is a joke.
Should the Twins deal Denard, Ben Revere is the obvious replacement. But let's dispell the notion that Revere is in any way an overall superior player to Span, because he's not. Span has experience, superior plate discipline, superior contact skills, a better arm, and is a legitimate leadoff hitter. Revere is exciting, but he's not a leadoff batter and an extra ten or fifteen stolen bases in a season won't make up for the fact that his on-base percentage belongs at the bottom of the order. Without Span, there is no good leadoff batter for the Twins. Not now, and not in 2012.
Furthermore, Span's contract is team-friendly in the extreme. The Twins are due to pay him just $3 million next year, $4.75 million in 2013, $6.5 million in 2014, and in 2015 there's a $9 million option with a $500,000 buyout. Right now the Twins have, locked in, one of the game's premier center fielders for a mere $20.15 million for three of his peak seasons (ages 28-30 after this year), and then that option. Seriously people, it doesn't get a lot better than that for a leadoff hitting center fielder in his prime who does everything that's expected of him pretty well.
Looking at Washington's triple-A affiliate, there isn't a lot that stands out. Chris Marrero, Steve Lombardozzi, and Tom Milone are all of some interest, but none of them are blue chip prospects. For Span I expect you should get all three and more. Tyler Moore, the slugging first baseman at their double-A affiliate might be a better choice than Marrero. Brad Peacock, recently promoted to triple-A, interests me as a strikeout pitcher. But honestly, there's not a whole lot that makes trading Span definitely worth it to me. And if we're trading Span, it had better be for a package where you can look at it and think "Yeah, okay, Span was a good part of our future but now our future looks even brighter."
Right now, I'm hanging up on the Nationals. Obviously we may not have all the information here, so there may be something else happening that we're unaware of, but looking at the facts as we know them this is a flat out no for me.
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fool me once
If I were the Nationals’ GM, and had talked Bill Smith into trading Capps for Ramos, why not see if lightning will strike twice?
I want a whole keg!
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Jesse, I usually agree with you
but Storen and Clippard for Span is a ripoff for us. Peacock and Espinosa would do it for me. I’m serious. Center fielders with the skills of Span are hard to come buy. Once you add in that his contract is criminal, I think Span has more value than the two enigmas on the market, B. J. Upton and Rasmus.
by Coolio12 on Jul 25, 2011 7:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Yeah.
I’m probably pushing it by saying Storen and Clippard is a tough decision for me. I think you’d probably have to say yes to that.
Right now my biggest issue is that the Twins have zero, ZERO reason to trade Span. He’s not being pushed by Revere, not really, he’s under a great contract, he’s a good leadoff hitter and center fielder, he performs well and he’s a great teammate. The only way the Twins move Span now is if they’re given a can’t-say-no offer. And I firmly believe that a can’t-say-no offer starts with Storen and Clippard. If Span somehow, inexplicably gets traded, it has to be a big win for the Twins because they have all the cards.
Jesse didn't we just do this with the Orioles
Yes the relief pitchers are more proven but the player were traded is also mire proven and important. Relievers are the most volatile players in baseball. Clippard could very well be washed out of the league next year. Didn’t we learn thus lesson with Hardy? Never trade a talented position player for relievers.
The fact that Smith even discussed this pisses me off.
by Coolio12 on Jul 25, 2011 7:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
To be fair we don't know what Smith discussed.
All we know is that the teams talked, and that the Nats are posturing that they won’t trade Storen or Clippard.
Smith hasn't put us in a position to give him the benefit of the doubt
With his quesionable decisions in the past.
by Coolio12 on Jul 25, 2011 7:34 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The nationals do have some good pieces
I’ve heard of this Strasburg kid……….
Theres also this reclamation project is AA named Harper or something……..
by Coolio12 on Jul 25, 2011 7:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah those two might be worth the risk
Hell, we can throw in STEVE HOLM! to make it even
"We’re all in this boat together. Everybody grab an oar."
-Tom Kelly
STEVE HOLM is way to much to give up
your crazy
by Coolio12 on Jul 25, 2011 7:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No thanx
Can we stop with the trading of up the middle players for relief pitchers please? Thanks.
by matswilander on Jul 25, 2011 7:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Would you trust SpongeHead-Bill Unfair-trade to not do this though?
"We’re all in this boat together. Everybody grab an oar."
-Tom Kelly
I think my three-word subjective analysis of this
would use some stronger language.
"The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't."
Follow me @SimulacraAlex or on facebook!
Yeah
We have some perverted posters in the gamethreads.
Not going to name names though.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Me
I have a one-track mind. Fortunately it’s on the right track.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jul 26, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Won't happen
Just because I ask my boss for a raise doesn’t mean I’m going to get one
Dismissing this as a request from the Nationals, and nothing more. They just wanted to ask and it doesn’t hurt to ask. This is a non-story.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Jul 25, 2011 7:29 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed, I havent seen anything that suggests the Twins are shopping Span.
Granted, if the nats were offering Espinosa….
"The ships hung in the sky in much the same way that bricks don't."
Follow me @SimulacraAlex or on facebook!
might as well ask for Bryce Harper and Ramos too
"We’re all in this boat together. Everybody grab an oar."
-Tom Kelly
Span for Wilson Ramos.
Get it done Bill Smith.
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
Smith does realize we can have the greatest group of relievers and starting pitchers ever assembled
and with a group of AA fielders and bats we’ll still lose, right?
"We’re all in this boat together. Everybody grab an oar."
-Tom Kelly
Probably not...
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
I'll
trade him for that Harper kid.
CFs are way more valuable than a RF.
I know the Twins have a plethora of OF prospects in the minors, but
I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade Span.
Strasburg
I think it would be fair to get Strasburg for Soan, as payback for having to suffer through a lot of Capps and Butera this year.
by AM. on Jul 25, 2011 7:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
We have a plethora of *corner* OF prospects.
Revere is the only other CF possibility of note I’ve seen. And I think he’d be better served as a 4th OF, to be honest.
Look, every player has a price tag. But the price for Span is almost certainly something the Nationals can’t pay.
I’m hoping this is more “Big city assuming the small market teams can be bulldozed” carp. But I think it may be built on the stupidity that is our GM.
And Span's contract gets expensive in 2015.
Unless the Twins’ front office is really concerned about his head injuries (concussion, ear problems), I don’t see the point in rushing to trade him for relief pitchers and possibly a defensive SS.
You don't see the wisdom of trading one of the team's best players this season
For players inferior to the ones we let go in the offseason? How dare you doubt the wisdom of Bill Smith.
/sarcasm off
by Shawn Gillogly on Jul 25, 2011 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd hope that
by this point, even Smith has learned to check his facts and be a bit more trigger shy. You’re absolutely right – the pricetag for Denard has to be too high for the Nationals.
Dear Mr. Smith
Please stop going to Washington.
Sincerely,
Twinkietown
by sheet stain on Jul 25, 2011 8:17 PM EDT via mobile reply actions 8 recs
The very fact this is public info
Shows just how little regard Bill Smith has throughout the leauge.
I wonder if someone from the Twins FO leaked this so Smith could see the reaction.
by clutterheart on Jul 25, 2011 10:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hypothetical question:
Suppose that Span is traded to the Nationals in another trade that’s so immediately obviously lopsided as the Hardy trade, and that is the catalyst that gets us substantially better management. (While we all would like the team to see that better management is needed before more hideous mistakes happen, I think it’s clear that’s not going to happen.)
Would that be worth it?
trade trade trade happen happen.
Maybe I should advocate trading Span for better sentences.
OK... well, we lost by 14 tonight, so maybe pessimism rules the day
Someone photoshop a Nats cap on a picture of Span. That should get everyone more gloomy.
I wish I could dismiss
it as some blowhard spreading a rumor… but, that’s what I told myself when the first Hardy trade rumors popped up.
Speculation is funny. Hahaha
The twins are not going to trade Span.
by LittleLad on Jul 25, 2011 11:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
You don’t know that the guy who replaces Bill Smith will be better, and I’m not willing to wager Denard Span on that chance.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
If the Twins target Lombardozzi , fine
but they sure as heck better get at least a little more in addition to Lombo
Wilson Ramos, Steve Lombardozzi, and Brad Peacock
for Span and Butera….. I’d consider
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
Span in Left, Revere in Center, Delmon / Kubel in RF
Cuddyer 1B , Morneau DH in 2012
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2011 12:54 AM EDT reply actions
not saying i'd do trade ^ mentioned above
in fact i likely wouldnt’ , just goes to show the type of offer it take to even garner attention.
~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~
Span in Left, Revere in Center, Delmon / Kubel in RF
Cuddyer 1B , Morneau DH in 2012
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2011 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
How does this help?
Revere makes up for the loss of Span’s glove in CF, but comes no where near his bat at the leadoff spot. Unless there is a leadoff capable hitter that Bill Smith has hiding from us, this is an awful trade. Span is signed through 2014, which is right about the time that Benson or Hicks can take over. Don’t ruin a good thing Bill Smith!
I certainly hope so
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Good news
They have 4 LH relief pitchers, they can afford to let one go. Can they get anything in return?
I'd much rather trade a guy like Dumatrait...
who sucks but has looked “okay” this year in a limited sample, than sell low on an immense talent like Mijares.
immense talent
His ERA has certainly ballooned every year. Lefthanded specialists are easy come, easy go. I’m surprised anyone is interested.
not lefties with his arm and stuff though...
again, would be selling low IMO. really low. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s been hurt all this year.
sell a guy like dumatrait, who actually sucks, before you trade mijares for basically nothing.
as has been mentioned; what are you really going to get for him at this point? another paul bargas or brett jacobsen? jim hoey? no thanks.
You know that History Channel has a new show called Whisker Wars coming?
basically going to be guys competing in facial hair competitions. should be awesome.
This would be dumb dumb dumb...
as has been mentioned; Span’s contract is amazing. Why give him up now? His value will not be any lower a year from now, when he’s still got 3 more years of cheap control. And you’ve bridged the gap somewhat, hopefully, to Hicks/Benson/Arcia. Revere inspires no confidence right now that he’s an everyday player until he learns how to take a walk.
You just don’t trade one of the best all-around CF’s in the game for a relief pitcher; I don’t care who that guy is; he could be Mariano freaking Rivera and I wouldn’t. Especially when you don’t have a backup option. We’d be robbing Peter to pay Paul. And this is a big problem with Bill Smith so far; he doesn’t seem to value position. His “big trades” have all been giving away premium position players for positions easy to fill:
Ace-stuff pitcher and a solid SS (Garza and Bartlett) for a LF’er.
Very good SS (Hardy) for two awful relief pitchers.
Very good C prospect (Ramos) for a reliever.
Span would just be another one in this list, if the rumors are true. That is very, very concerning to me.
Another reason I wouldn't even do Span for Storen, btw, is money. Check it out.
Span’s contract:
2011: $1M
2012: $3M
2013: $4.75M
2014: $6.5M
2015: $9M (no-brainer team option)
Total through 2015: $23.55M (from this point on)
Storen likely salaries (I’d use Papelbon as an example):
2011: $418K
2012: $500K (estimat for last pre-arbitration year)
2013: $6.25M (arbitration 1 estimate; this is what Papelbon got)
2014: $9.35M (arbitration 2 estimate; this is what Papelbon got)
2015: $12M (arbitration 3 estimate; again, what Papelbon got)
Total through 2015: $28.2M (from this point on)
Even if you think he doesn’t quite get what Papelbon has (I think it’s a pretty decent comparable, at least so far) he’s going to make an awful lot in arbitration; it’s just the way it works for anyone, but especially relievers as far as the inflated value of the save. I’d much, much, much rather have a premium CF’er than a 60-inning reliever, and for LESS money, over the next 4+ years.
But the Twins almost never go to Arbitration
If we do get Storen, it is likely that we could reach a deal in 2013 for three years at $5.5 Million per year and a team option year at $6 Million. Total deal would be $23.42 million through 2016 and is less than what Denard Span will get through five years. The Twins are shrewd in that department.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Maybe so...
but you can’t “count on that”. And again, even if he makes slightly less than Span, it’s a horrible trade.
You’re trading an impact, one of the best overall in the game, CF’s for a reliever that pitches 60 innings a year. That’d beyond dumb.
by DJSkillz on Jul 26, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
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