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Nishi to the minors?


Tsuyoshi Nishioka has gone through every level of crappy since the start of this road trip. He appears confused and has had his confidence drained. So, is it logical (and feasible) to send him down?

Star-divide

So, let's look at the pros and the cons considering the Twins are trying (and failing) to chase down the Detroit Tigers.

The reasons for:

1. Tsuyoshi is struggling:

I. Since the allstar break: Nishioka is hitting .185. Now that in and of itself is incredibly incompetent. However, the real problem is that the power is worse. He does not have an extra base hit in that entire time period

II. His fielding isn't great: He has 8 errors and probably should have more. While I've never been a big fan of defensive metrics, he has a dWar of -1. 

III. Empiricism: I don't really need to telly you that he has been absolutely terrible. You guys (and gals) already know it. This is the major leagues and (with the exception of the Astros) there is theoretically supposed to be a standard. With a team in the race, the Twins can't afford to have Nishioka go through growing pains now.

IV. Confidence: At this point, its snowballing. He keeps on getting worse and is starting to lose track of where the strike zone is. His last at bat in Oakland proved that. With a backwards K (probably high and away but one he needed to cover) he turned around in dead frustration to the home plate umpire. The sheer frustration and confusion is getting to him. As Gardy says, he's struggling too hard for it. Instead of staying on the ball and lining it, he's pulling out and really has lost his gameplan.

2. The minors would be good for him

I. Getting his swing back together: In 24 at bats in the minors (12 at Ft Myers and 12 at Rochester), NIshioka has hit .333 (at both stops). In the short run, he needs his confidence back and this is how he should get it. While I'd say getting away from Joe Vavra would also help, the plain and simple is that he needs to face easier pitchers and hit them. A lot of baseball is swagger and he's lost his completely.

3. Plouffe needs to get some ABs

  I. Plouffe has killed in the minors: You all know the statistics. A gaudy 1.019 OPS, 15 homers, 21 walks vs only 39 Ks have combined for a monster year. With Span coming back, they can't really afford to bounce him around the outfield anymore with Nishioka, Tolbert, and Hughes all theoretically splitting time and presumably Cuddy being moved consistently to 1st. The eventual returns of Morneau and Casilla mean that they need to get him time while they can.

II. The defense can't really get much worse: the major reason for Plouffe ending up in the doghouse was the large amount of errors he had that drove Gardy nuts. However, Nishioka, as described, hasn't been all that good either. With consistent playing time, he can hopefully get into a good defensive groove. 

4. Get him away from Joe Vavra.

I. This (imho) stands for itself.

The Reasons Against

1. Nishioka is better off up here.

I. Former batting champ: In 4 years in Japan, Nishi hit .300, .300, .260, .346. I'll be honest, I can't really judge his swing cause its just too Japanese (which is why I'm scared of it being combined with Joe Vavra). For all I know, he's really close to being on the ball. With this kind of track record, one would have to say that he can turn it around at any point.

II. Confidence: I"m worried about his self belief now. However, what would happen when he get's demoted. For all we know, that could send him into an even worse tailspin of disbelief where he never really finds it (like that pitcher for the Yankees who gets millions to sit on a bench in double A). The Twins still have years of contract left with him and the last thing they want to do is screw this up in the longrun with something like that. 

2. There's nobody really to call up

I. Let's see what we got for minor league middle infielders (that haven't been called up). You got Toby Gardenhire hitting .252, an OBP below 300 and about as much power as you would expect from Gardy's kid ie none. You got Steve Singleton, who's worse but with silghtly more power if you really care about the power difference between Jason Tyner and Nick Punto (who I would love to have back right now). And thats about it. With a glut of outfielders, I really don't know who comes up in Nishioka's stead. If you want to drop down to AA, Brian Dozier has the highest OPS at .821 for middle infelders but let's face it, that doesn't really shout immediate call up. What we really want right now is JJ Hardy back.

3. Do you really want to mess with the roster that much?

I. We're heading into a tough stretch: Now this might actually be cause to send Nishi down depending upon how cynical you are but our upcoming series list is kind of a horror story: 3 with LAA, a reprieve of 3 with the Sux, and then unmitigated horror: 3 Boston, 3 Cleveland, 3 Detroit, 4 New York. That sounds really bad and the Twins could (and probably will) lose the division in that time (though if they somehow manage to stay level or actually gain, one would have to be confident.) That doesn't really sound like time for experimentation to me.

So, you all tell me. Should we send Nishi down? I personally say no. With only 1 month of minors left, I don't think he has time to make the changes the Twins want and then get back to the team. He already spent 24 games down there and that hasn't helped him back here. He needs to adjust to major pitching and the solution to me is facing his fears. With no real improvements in the minors anyway, the worst you get is what it already is: absolute crap.

Poll
Send him down or keep him up?
Send him to the minors for his own good
56 votes
Keep him, Twins got nothing to lose
27 votes
I want JJ Hardy back
84 votes

167 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 67 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Nope

This team is in a free fall. They need to save face. And while it may be important to and him down, they have talked him up so much, I don’t think they could survive another crushing 9 M defeat.

Joe Butt

by haroldwiggins on Jul 31, 2011 8:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I was listening to the game on the radio today

When Nishi struck out Dazzleman started talking about the realities of playing in Japan. Basically Japan has two leagues of six teams each. In the time frame Gladden was there, the league he was in half of the league played in dome stadiums while the other half played in small ballparks. What really struck me about that conversation was that team’s don’t really hit for power in Japan which means that runs are manufactured bit by bit. He didn’t talk about pitching too much, but I am guessing it is of the poorer variety. There is also a SBNation article on baseball in Japan and I’ll try to find it and post it to this fanpost.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew

by Jessy S on Jul 31, 2011 8:28 PM EDT reply actions  

Here’s the Link.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew

by Jessy S on Jul 31, 2011 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd rather play Nishioka than Tolbert

Like you said, there’s nobody better in AAA. Casilla is injured. Nishioka might not get every start going forward but there’s no reason to send him to AAA.

by DJL44 on Jul 31, 2011 9:23 PM EDT reply actions  

for now, ya...

but when Casilla’s back, I’d play Casilla at SS and Plouffe at 2b as much as possible for the rest of the year.

Casilla has played better at SS than at 2b in his career (minors and majors) and even if he’s equal at both, you put him at SS if he’s in your longterm plans because it’s a rarer position.

Plouffe is 25 and needs to play at this point. He can hit, but the Twins will never trust him at SS. So try him at 2b.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

You keep saying that Casilla is better @ SS

But his WAR is worse at SS. And his Defensive WAR is MUCH worse. So where do you get this from? He doesn’t have the arm to play SS. So he’s not a long term answer there.

Quite frankly, Casilla is best at the role he was used at last season: Utility Infielder. He’s not good enough to start everyday anyplace. But he’s useful because he can play several positions.

by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 1, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

x * y = Alexi Casilla

where:
 x = Dominican
and
 y = Nick Punto

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 1, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's totally unfair

Punto was at least a legitimately good fielder.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Aug 1, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha!

ok, then:

Dominican = [Island Native – Defense]

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 1, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was talking about offensively...

people keep saying he’s more “comfortable” at 2b, but his offensive numbers over his career, including this year, don’t show that. and i disagree on defense; not enough of a sample size. I think his arm is just fine there.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

You can't say small sample size for defense

and not offense. That’s cherry-picking. Take the whole basket or none.

For his career, his WAR is worse at SS. And I think most agree the ‘experiment’ with that at the beginning of the season bore that out.

He’s an above avg utility infielder. But he’s a below replacement level everyday player. That’s his career. He’s a backup.

by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 1, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

fair point on defense/offense sample size...

but disagree on the rest. i actually think he’s proven he’s an every day player this year, as both a SS and a 2b. He’s not a star or anything, but he’s an “average” SS or 2b, offensively. He’s basically middle of the pack in baseball in both of those. And for $875K, that’s fine. Casilla is not our problem. The other MI spot is.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Casilla has been as good as Derek Jeter

Unfortunately Derek Jeter is having the worst season of his career. Casilla is a great backup but as a starter you should be looking to replace him.

Avg bat for a SS, below average for 2B. Avg defender for 2B, below average for SS. He’s a great glove at 3B and below avg bat there too. He’s a below average player at 3 infield positions and he switch hits. That’s a terrific guy to have on your bench getting 400 PA.

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know about that....

This year (and this year is not really different than most) so far his overall year would rank 12th in all of baseball in OPS at 2b and 14th among SS’s in OPS.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's like any other premium position on the field...

people tend to overestimate what “average” at the position is offensively. and it’s what makes the good ones that much more valuable.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

12th to 14th looks pretty darned average

2B is down this year but usually requires more bat than SS.

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

average, yes...

not below average.

i’ll take average production from a MI position for $875K. Not saying we can’t upgrade (which obviously Hardy would have been in a big way) but Casilla is not a problem.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

One other comment on Casilla, just in general...

I wish Gardy would have him steal more. He’s got a great track record of success in both the minors and the majors. 50 SB to 3 CS in the majors over his career. That’s elite level success. He’s got 15 steals this year, 3 CS. No reason he shouldn’t be stealing something like 40 bags a year, even if the percentage drops a bit from that. Of course, the caveat to that is that I don’t want him stealing bases a lot if he’s batting right in front of Mauer, though that may alleviate the shift a bit. Hmm…

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry, typo above...

that is 50 sb to 7 cs, not 3, in his career.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

Average bat for a SS

His glove is below average at SS. Did you read my whole comment?

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry...

guess we’re splitting hairs. he’s around average at both spots overall IMO. maybe a little above offensively, maybe as low as a little below defensively. but it’s semantics. he’s about an average player. there are 15 other teams, at least, that would like to have him at either spot, especially for $875K. again, he is not the problem.

basically i think this; if lexi is your “2nd” MI. say lexi and Hardy, then you’re doing pretty good. if he’s your #1 MI and your 2nd guy is worse, then you’re not doing nearly as good, which is where we’re at right now.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

looking at this...

he would have ranked 12th among 2b last year as well, in OPS.

you’re right that the position in general is down though. just 4-5 years ago he would have ranked in the mid-20’s at the position. wonder if teams have been focusing on defense more the last few years there or if it’s just a bad cycle.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

or...

if it was just a “good cycle” of 2b for a couple of years.

looking deeper, that appears to have been the case. and we’re back to “average” years for 2b again now.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

could be...

though i guess i’m one of those that believes that they’re all pretty much still doing something.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defense tends to require more data

For some reason, UZR/150 is subject to more violent swings than offensive stats. The rule of thumb is, you need a half a season of defensive data to make decent decisions. Two months of offense is usually enough.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 1, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

this too...

Obviously Casilla is likely a downgrade from Hudson defensively, but offensively, so far this year, we’re talking about roughly 20 points in OPS. That’s it.

He’s been at least an average offensive player at SS and 2b this year; was better at SS than 2b by a good margin, which discredits the “comfortable” notion.

I also, again, disagree on his arm at SS. Casilla’s got a fine arm. That play he made a week or so ago throwing underneath his left arm was amazing. The play didn’t actually get made; no one would have made that one. But even getting as much on the throw as he did from that position was one of the most athletic plays I’ve ever seen on a baseball field.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

And I hope none of this is misinterpreted as me loving Casilla or something...

I wanted Hardy to stay more than anyone and think that was an incredibly dumb move. I also would have preferred to have both him and Hudson back, with Casilla acting as a stellar backup MI. But Casilla has proven to be solid this year IMO.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Again...

15-20 points worse than Hudson circa 2010 in OPS, and for $875K. Far worse problems than Casilla. He should be playing SS with Plouffe at 2b IMO, when he returns.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't see Gardy ever trusting him at SS...

and Casilla’s a better defensive player than Plouffe, so if you’re going to play them both, play Casilla at SS and Plouffe at 2b.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

What is up with Gardy's lack of patience?

Plouffe had two games at second, one good, one bad. And it’s off to the bench with him. At this point, Gardy should be trying to develop his MI for 2012. This task will require patience.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 1, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

exactly...

and what makes the least sense is that Gardy seemed so excited to bring him up in the first place.

by DJSkillz on Aug 1, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's funny.

Since you talk about keeping him away from Joe Vavra. I (and some others) said the same things about Scott Ulger when he was the hitting coach.

Frankly I think the Twins system for teaching hitters is simply broken. It’s never been that good and the good hitters that Twins have had, have been good because their talent could not be broken by the system. So the problem is much larger than Joe Vavara. I think the organization as a whole could benefit by bringing in people from other organizations and adopting reformed philosophies.

by MNPundit on Jul 31, 2011 9:27 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes

Why are we always at the bottom for homerun totals?

Joe Butt

by haroldwiggins on Jul 31, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Home run hitters are expensive.

by Brady Eyestone on Aug 1, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Everyone hates their favorite team's hitting coach

The truth is a hitting coach doesn’t do all that much. They can’t help players recognize pitches. They can’t improve hand/eye coordination. All they can do is tell a player what they’re doing wrong and focus on mechanics.

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have nightmares

that Toby Gardenhire will be the new Punto for 5+ years.

by Desert Aaron on Jul 31, 2011 11:59 PM EDT reply actions  

Option him

For two weeks when Casilla is ready to play short. Perhpas he’ll find his stroke, maybe not. If Nishi doesn’t find his offense this season, you have to bring him back next season to see if the adjustment and the injury caused the horrible production. I have seen quite a bit of Twins baseball and I have seen precious few balls hit with authority.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 1, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions  

It doesn't matter

If the Twins are completely out of it by mid-August then playing time is development time.

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I’ve seen more in the field than I expected. If he can learn the American strike zone a little better, he can be a decent SS/#9 hitter. Fantasies of the next Ichiro were totally misplaced.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 1, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

The strike zone in Japan is a lot smaller

They don’t give pitchers pitches on the black over there.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 1, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Can his bat cover the black?

The reason Ichiro is so good is he can take a pitch on the black and put it down the line. Also, Ichiro has enough power to make someone pay for a get-me-over fastball. Based on what I’ve seen, Nishi can only foul those pitches off and nobody is afraid of throwing him a get-me-over fastball.

by DJL44 on Aug 1, 2011 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

Yesterday, McCarthy threw a get-me-over fastball down the middle. All Nishi was able to do was foul it off the other way.

He’s a better hitter than this. His mechanics are out of whack right now. I assume he’ll get them back. But he also needs to learn to protect the plate with two strikes, especially on the inside corner.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 1, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

A broken leg is a horrific way to start a career. And just because he was able to start ‘playing’ again doesn’t mean he was going to be in top condition. He’s essentially been at Spring Training level against players in mid-season form.

I think the rush to throw him under the bus is excessive. We’re going to have to accept that we don’t know what we have in Nishi until next season, IMHO.

by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 2, 2011 7:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not throwing him under the bus

Just pointing out things he needs to learn in order to become a better player. He had one of the best seasons of any Japanese player in recent history last year. He’s better than this. He can and will make the adjustments.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 2, 2011 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I thought all the armchair GMs got miffed when Gardy would “jerk around” Cuddy, Bartlett, etc…and now you want more change? Nishi needs to play full-time for the rest of the season, without question. He certainly should be learning and improving, but sending him to the bench or Rochester doesn’t help us know if he can be penciled in to start in April 2012 (which is where the focus should be).

by MajorLongfont on Aug 2, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing is, he's not improving.

It would be one thing if he was making positive progress. I agree he should play more because I think the season is lost but increasing futility is not easy to watch.

by MNPundit on Aug 3, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw improvement the last couple of games

It doesn’t always show up in the box score. But he’s turning on inside pitches better and he’s not pulling off the ball so much. I think we just need to be more patient. Maybe he’s not a starter, but we should give him every opportunity to prove that, imho.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 4, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

Once Casilla comes off DL yes i agree nishi to minors (AA prlly first)

Plouffe at 2B, Casilla at SS rest of year

~David Kahn is pretty much clueless~
Twins top 11 ~ Gibson, Sano, Hendriks, Hicks, Arcia, Salcedo, Benson, Michael, Kepler, Rosario, Gutierrez ~

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 2, 2011 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Tolbert on the bench and Nishioka in the minors?

Why? Plus, 40 man rosters expand 2 weeks after Casilla is scheduled to come off the DL.

by DJL44 on Aug 2, 2011 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly, there's no reason to send him down

And no, I don’t want Casilla @ short. I’d rather have Plouffe there.

by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 2, 2011 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Plouffe has been a sub-par defender at SS for his whole career

I don’t think moving him off SS is a travesty, he’s had multiple opportunities in the minors to show what he can do and it isn’t much.

by DJL44 on Aug 2, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

And so is Casilla.

with a larger sample size. At this point, I’d say is fair to say anything involving “Casilla” and “everyday shortstop” is wishful thinking.

by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 2, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Casilla...

is a better defensive SS than Plouffe. He just is. So if you play both, there’s no reason to play Plouffe at SS.

by DJSkillz on Aug 2, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Casilla is in the MI

When he returns this month. He also is an incumbent MI next year, barring him falling off a cliff. His overall numbers are average, but since mid-May he’s been very good, plus he adds great speed on the basepaths. Alexi as the Twins 8th or 9th best position player is not the problem.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Aug 2, 2011 9:01 PM EDT reply actions  

this is a solid point...

Casilla’s overall line is still just fine for a MI (about average), but if the “real” Casilla is the Casilla we’ve seen the last 3 months, after he supposedly changed his approach and stopped listening to Twins’ coaches, then he may well be something like a .280/.340/.400/.740 hitter at the SS position. Here are his splits this year:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=casilal01&year=2011&t=b#month

If this is the “true” Casilla, the one we’ve seen the last few months, then he’s actually in the Erick Aybar/Alexei Ramirez/Starlin Castro/Jimmy Rollins/Stephen Drew range, this year, and squarely in the top 10. Or, if you prefer him at 2b, comparable to Brandon Phillips/Danny Espinosa, this year.

Time will tell.

by DJSkillz on Aug 3, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

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