Shutdowns and Meltdowns: 2011 Filled with Melty-Awfulness

by Yabbs on Jul 6, 2011 1:29 AM EDT

Back in April, I took a look at the success of Twins relief pitchers based on the Fangraphs Saber-stats Shutdowns and Meltdowns, to refresh everyone's memory, here's the definition of how Shutdowns and Meltdowns are calculated (from Steve Slowinski's FanGraphs post introducing SD and MD)

But how do we determine if a relief pitcher helped or hurt his team? Using Win Probability Added (WPA), it’s very easy to tell exactly how much a specific player contributed to their team on a game-by-game basis. If a player increased his team’s win probability by 6% (0.06 WPA), then they get a Shutdown. If a player made his team 6% more likely to lose (-0.06), they get a Meltdown. These cutoff points put Shutdowns and Meltdowns on a similar scale as Saves and Holds, meaning that 40 shutdowns is roughly as impressive as 40 saves.

Jump for the second look.

As another refresher, here's the stats for Twins relievers in 2010:

And here's the 2011 Twins along with the relievers that also left in the offseason.

To simplify the figure, I left out, Anthony Slama's 1 Shutdown and Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship and Kevin Slowey's single meltdowns.

So... this is not at all what I expected. This is coming into July 5th, so I don't believe tonight's meltdown by Matt Capps is in there. Even still, I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan are next on the list of SD:MD ratio.

I'm surprised that Matt Guerrier is struggling as much as he is (AKA more than Brian Fuentes), but Jesse Crain's dominance would definitely be welcome in this bullpen.

This also helps vindicate the TT opinion that Jose Mijares would be kicked to the curb if he wasn't a LHP and Alex Burnett for Slama might not be a terrible swap.

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I think Capps' meltdown total should be at least 11

Don’t know if you count when he has two meltdowns in one game. Twice this year he has blown a save, the Twins have come back, and he’s blown the save again. They only count the second blown save. And I don’ know if you count when he is removed from the game prior to an impending meltdown and someone else saves the game for him, as Perkins has done the last two games. If you count those four as meltdowns, it’s 11. I’m sure there are others as well.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 6, 2011 9:32 AM EDT reply actions

"Don't know if you count when he has two meltdowns in one game."

Ouch. It hurts because it’s true.

by Jesse on Jul 6, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Last night's would've counted

Capps’ WPA last night was -.067, just enough to meet the threshold. That’s the advantage of making the stat WPA-based, rather than solely dependent on the win – you still get penalized for sucking (as long as it’s not in a complete blowout) even if you don’t completely blow the lead. He also would’ve been credited with a meltdown on Sunday, with a WPA of -.089

I’ve got another objection to Capps’ total, but I’ll put that in a top-level comment directly responding to the FanPost.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 6, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions

That’s the advantage of making the stat WPA-based, rather than solely dependent on the win – you still get penalized for sucking

Yes and no. If a pitcher enters the 9th with a 4-run lead and gives up 3 runs while finishing the game, he still gets a +WPA and probably a “shutdown.” -Even though I would personally consider that a meltdown.

That’s why WPA for relievers is flawed (and thus so is this SD/MD). -Because it ignores situations where a reliever pitches terribly but doesn’t quite cost his team a win. In my opinion, WPA should only ever be looked at for hitting; never for pitching.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on Jul 6, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Your situation wouldn't QUITE be a shutdown

A 4-run lead is more than a 94% expected win percentage, so it wouldn’t get the guy a shutdown. I agree with your general criticism, though – it’s basically the same thing I mentioned below.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 6, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Excellent point.

If a 3-base error costs a team a 1-run lead, the pitcher’s WPA suffers a lot.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on Jul 6, 2011 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Posted this under the wrong comment of yours.

Also, isn’t win probability effected by whether you’re home or away? I pitcher who gives up the lead when on the road in the 9th loses 100% of the time. A home team would still have a chance to win.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on Jul 6, 2011 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Not to mention that WPA doesn't consider defense at all

If you load the bases with walks and get a fantastic double play the credit goes to the pitcher.

by DJL44 on Jul 6, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I think this stat is still biased toward closers

The shutdown/meltdown stat is much better than saves, especially for middle relievers, but I think it’s still biased toward closers. My reasoning: WPA is based on a team’s win probability, and that is always 100% at the end of the game – any successful save, no matter how much the closer struggles, will result in a positive WPA (the expected win percentage will be less than 100% before the end of the game). If Capps gets that last out, not only does he avoid a meltdown, but he actually gets a shutdown instead (Perkins’ WPA was .141, so Capps would’ve had a .074 if he’d finished the game).

Basically, any 2-or-fewer-run save is a guaranteed “shutdown” for a closer – I’m pretty sure the win expectancy is less than 94% in both cases. Granted, the closer rarely gets the chance for the WPA boost of pitching out of a jam (unless he put himself there), but closers are also generally less likely to be pulled mid-inning – Capps lately has been an exception to this, but I can recall plenty of times when Capps or Nathan (or, especially, Eddie Guardado) put a few runners on base but managed to successfully convert the save. A middle reliever is generally pulled after putting multiple runners on base, saddling him with a negative WPA, while “The Closer” is generally allowed to pitch through it, and if the closer is successful, he will end up with a positive WPA and a shutdown.

I would expect that even a middling closer would end up with the best shutdown/meltdown rate on the team merely by virtue of holding the closer role thanks to the above reasons (getting to end games and not getting pulled when struggling). I’m not convinced that Capps has been anything close to the team’s best reliever.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Jul 6, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Maybe it should be based on WPA/LI instead?

"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"

by Steven Ellingson on Jul 6, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't believe in this system

at all if it says Capps is our best reliever and by quite a bit. I just fail to see why he continually gets the support of Gardy to be the closer when he has clearly shown he can’t get the job done. How many painful 9th innings need to happen, how many blown saves (or nearly blown saves with Perk saving the day) will it take until someone else more deserving gets the job? Its just frustrating.

by Gooseke on Jul 6, 2011 12:25 PM EDT reply actions

+1

I think they should let Perkins close and move Capps into a role similar to Nathan’s, i.e. Overpaid set-up guy.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 6, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

It's nice to know that our closer has a closer backing him up.

"If trees could scream, would we be so cavalier about cutting them down? We might, if they screamed all the time, for no good reason." -Jack Handy

by Flip27 on Jul 6, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions

The thing is, it's not really saying Capps is our best reliever since, as is said above, the shutdown is biased towards closers.

What is more telling is that Capps leads the team in meltdowns. Especially since the “double blown saves” aren’t accounted for as separate meltdowns.

I started to write this article after reading someone whining about the negativity towards Capps in last night’s game thread and how if “we were in that clubhouse it’d be terrible for team morale” I think constantly losing games in the 9th is bad for team morale, too.

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Jul 6, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions

actually it says Chuck James is our best reliever

Do you want to know the terrifying truth, or do you want to see me sock a few dingers?

by natetheskate on Jul 11, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

FREE CHUCK JAMES!

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 11, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Another meltdown for Burnett today

4 shutdowns and 8 meltdowns. Pitiful.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Jul 6, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe today will spur some action on Burnett and Dumatrait

I’d like to see Slama get a shot and James back up. I’d also like to see Gutierrez at some point.

Or maybe we’ll get another dose of Manship or even 1337 h4x0r.

"Nobody wants to hear me rap." - Joe Mauer
"METEOR" - JIM THOME

by what_would_gil_thorp_do on Jul 6, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions

agree

Slama or Gutierrez > Burnett
James > Dumatrait

plus with Slama and James they should have no concern about service time

by Pedro Munoz is fast on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Manship just threw 4 no-hit innings

by DJL44 on Jul 7, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Slama

I believe he just went on the DL. I don’t know what for or for how long.

by Manley Dewars on Jul 7, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually that's the 2010 stats

He’s got 5 of each.

Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"

by Yabbs on Jul 6, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

He got the first out

He’s not good enough to go another inning. The bullpen was stressed because Liriano was bad today.

by DJL44 on Jul 6, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions

ROOGY!

by Panthers FTW on Jul 6, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Capps

I guess the conversation is not going to address Nathan and his 11 million salary. Let him be the closer, that is what his getting paid for. Everybody says he is back, so let him pitch in a stressful situation. Everybody complains that Mauer should play hurt, what about Nathan?

by Emma2011 on Jul 6, 2011 9:09 PM EDT reply actions