FanPost

Shutdowns and Meltdowns: 2011 Filled with Melty-Awfulness

Back in April, I took a look at the success of Twins relief pitchers based on the Fangraphs Saber-stats Shutdowns and Meltdowns, to refresh everyone's memory, here's the definition of how Shutdowns and Meltdowns are calculated (from Steve Slowinski's FanGraphs post introducing SD and MD)

But how do we determine if a relief pitcher helped or hurt his team? Using Win Probability Added (WPA), it’s very easy to tell exactly how much a specific player contributed to their team on a game-by-game basis. If a player increased his team’s win probability by 6% (0.06 WPA), then they get a Shutdown. If a player made his team 6% more likely to lose (-0.06), they get a Meltdown. These cutoff points put Shutdowns and Meltdowns on a similar scale as Saves and Holds, meaning that 40 shutdowns is roughly as impressive as 40 saves.

Jump for the second look.

As another refresher, here's the stats for Twins relievers in 2010:

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And here's the 2011 Twins along with the relievers that also left in the offseason.

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To simplify the figure, I left out, Anthony Slama's 1 Shutdown and Anthony Swarzak, Jeff Manship and Kevin Slowey's single meltdowns.

So... this is not at all what I expected. This is coming into July 5th, so I don't believe tonight's meltdown by Matt Capps is in there. Even still, I guess it shouldn't be a surprise that Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan are next on the list of SD:MD ratio.

I'm surprised that Matt Guerrier is struggling as much as he is (AKA more than Brian Fuentes), but Jesse Crain's dominance would definitely be welcome in this bullpen.

This also helps vindicate the TT opinion that Jose Mijares would be kicked to the curb if he wasn't a LHP and Alex Burnett for Slama might not be a terrible swap.

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