Thome Gone; Kubel Next?
by RandBall's Stu on Aug 26, 2011 10:01 AM EDT
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As you've no doubt heard by now, Jim Thome has been traded to the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later. The future Hall of Famer goes back to where it all started for him and (barely) back into a pennant race: Cleveland is 63-64 and 6.5 games back of Detroit. Per Bill Smith in the Strib, the Twins will find out who the PTBNL is by October 15th.
The reaction in Twins Territory seems to be a cocktail of disappointment (that Thome is no longer on the team), appreciation (for what he brought to the team and that he gets an outside chance at a World Series title), and blind, impotent rage (FIRE BILL SMITH/GARDY/JOE MAUER/LIRIANO/TC BEAR!!!!111eleven!!).
Meanwhile, what of Jason Kubel, Professional Hitter ™? We think we know that the White Sox put in a waiver claim on him. But according to Judd Zulgad at 1500ESPN, it's unlikely the Twins and Sox will reach a deal as the former's asking price is too high. Kenny Williams doesn't seem to anticipate him being on the South Side, either.
Obviously, there will be have to be major changes this off-season. One of the questions that has to be answered: can the Twins upgrade their pitching staff AND keep JK,PH, much less Michael Cuddyer? If I had my druthers, I'd bid Cuddy farewell, keep Kubel, and throw all that sweet new stadium money at CJ Wilson and anyone else they can find. In my mind, the worst-case scenario is keeping Cuddyer, letting Kubel go, and rolling with the 2011 rotation, in the vain hope that good health is all they need to be effective.
I worry that that last scenario is also the most likely to come true. Your thoughts, as always, are appreciated in the comments section.
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I prefer Kubel's bat in the lineup. Clutch.
But Cuddyer has a lot more defensive value.
by SaintAugustine on Aug 26, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
he really doesn't...
Cuddy should never play 2b or 3b at this point in his career. So he’s basically a RF/1b/DH, and he’s not good at 1b. Kubel can fill those same roles too.
Cuddy’s “versatility” is highly overrated. As is the fact that he’s a righty, since his splits against righties suck and the vast majority of pitchers are righties.
The Twins lineup is very lefthanded
If you ever want to win a game against a lefthanded pitcher it is important to put someone in the lineup who can hit them.
ya, but I think that's a bit overrated...
just because Mauer/Morneau both hit lefties fine. As does Span. And Kubel has gotten much, much better against them.
I agree; ideally you have a RH guy; just saying it’s a bit overrated in this instance, for this team. I’d still prefer Kubel over Cuddy over the next 3 years as an overall player, quite easily.
I don't disagree
But you still need someone who can hit lefties for power.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 26, 2011 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be willing to claim Valencia
Plouffe still has lots to prove before he’s anything more than a utility guy
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
That's a fairly low curve for power
What’s Danny’s realistic potential, 20? That’s not going to strike fear in LH pitching. Especially from a power position.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 27, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Cuddyer has had exactly 2 seasons with more than 20 HR
Maybe soon to be 3. I’d love to have him back for a reasonable price to rotate between RF and DH, but he’s only had 2-3 really good years.
3B is a slowly declining position. 15-20 HRs from Valencia at 3B is ok by me.
Keep kubes cash in cuddles for picks
We don’t have a dh really for next year. Kubel is still developing as a hitter and made huge strides hitting lefties this season and generally focused on hitting for average with moderate power versus low average with big power. He’s passable in both corners and should be a lot cheaper than cuddyer. We need depth, lesson of the year, while Benson, revere and tosoni take the next step.
Gardenhire's major league career: Banjo hitting, futility infielder who couldn't lick it.
Rick Anderson's major league career: Strikethrower who never made it happen with his sub 90's fastball.
Really gives a new definition to living vicariously through other people, don't it?
by caseintheface on Aug 26, 2011 10:18 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Picks
Kubel is on the verge of crossing into Type A territory, Cuddyer is firmly a B.
Target Field has a high wall in the right field power alley. Cuddyer is pretty obvious if we’re making an A vs. B choice.
this isn't true IMO...
I think there’s a mistake in the latest ranking (Cuddyer was one of the highest Type A FA’s all year until the last 2 weeks; the drop doesn’t happen that quick). Both will end up being Type A’s.
when did Tosoni get a future?
His performance this year suggests to me that he is unlikely ever to be more than a backup, fourth outfielder who bounces up and down (see Repko, Jason).
There value in having that guy, but he isn’t someone who seems likely to “take the next step.”
He got worse this year
If it was just his MLB performance, I’d be less concerned but he stunk in Rochester this year too. He never recovered from whatever injured him last year.
I'm at work so not going to search...
But you also had to love the one against the Red Sox in June ’06. Schilling v Santana. 12th Inning. Intentionally walking Torii to load ’em for Kubel. Buh. Bye.
"My clique should be cancelled. Freaks and Geeks...." ---Childish Gambino
Tweeting sports, movies, TV, just about everything @alstevenmann
by alstevenmann on Aug 26, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Is Capps going to accept arbitration if offered?
He’s type A and I don’t think anyone is going to sign him if a pick is the alternative.
These ratings schemes are awful
Capps shouldn’t be “Type A”. This is like some weird roto league where the scoring doesn’t match what wins ballgames.
There is no chance in hell that he is offered arb. I refuse to believe any scenario where that happens.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
My guess is that they will keep Cuddyer
But could they keep both? Should they even? If we sign Kuble for the same amount he would elsewhere, and maybe get a discount on either years or dollars with Cuddyer, I think we could swing it. I too would like to get CJ, but the Twins don’t really play the free agent market. With the around 40 million we will have free for ’12, I think you can sign them both and still fill in a few holes.
What's the market value for Kubel, anyways?
We like him because we’re fans and stuff, does this year’s injury lower his stock?
David DeJesus as a comp?
He got $6MM this year (career high) as a 20+ career WAR player. Josh Willingham is making $6MM, and Ryan Ludwick is making under $7MM.
Kubel’s career WAR is under 10. For that matter, Cuddyer’s is only 12 at this point. If either of those guys makes more than $8MM next year, I would consider that over-payment. Willingham & Ludwick are much closer in WAR to Kubel & Cuddy than DeJesus.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 26, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
All signs all year have pointed to keeping Cuddy
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 26, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions
It could take 8-9 mil a year for 3 years. I personally think that would be stupid. So yes, all signs are still pointing to keeping him.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
more
Cuddy, on the open market, will be 12 million bucks. he’s a good ballplayer, plays all positions, runs pretty well, hits for average, hits some home runs every now and then. THis is a great player and I think he could get $12MM.
And we’d be insane to give him that. I love him. He does everything. And we should come up with the money but we won’t. And if we do, we’ll unload a lot of salary. I don’t see that as being a good thing — when you look at where we are right now, with Lexi hitting barely his weight and Danny not hitting much more and Nishi only hitting his weight because he is so slight.
There is no team going to give Cuddyer 12 mil a year.
I think he is more valuable to us than any other team give his versatility and our injuries, but other teams probably see that he has his weaknesses and should really only be a platoon player batting against lefies.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
He can play full time in his good years (2006,2009,2011)
This platoon-split is still there but those are still decent enough full-season numbers for a corner guy.
Right, in the past.
I have a hard time believing anyone is going to be shelling out 8 figures a year for him going forward.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
2011 is this year
I agree with you on the money. But he could play full-time next year and if healthy he’ll likely post a 115-120 OPS+
Plus give up a 1st or 2nd round pick
Type A compensation will reduce Cuddyer’s market value.
some, but a team will still be willing to pay for a RH bat...
look at Jayson Werth just a year ago.
Kubel will get even more money than Cuddy given his age though.
Think the Giants will not shell out buckets of Cash for Kubel
I wouldn’t be shocked if they give him $10 million per year for the next five years.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
Platoon
Why would you platoon him? Against lefties he hit .344; against righties he hits .274. He’s got just as many HRs vs. righties as lefties. His OBP vs. the lefties is a bit stronger as is his slugging, but certainly not enough to justify platooning the guy. He is 32 years old so if he were to get 12 million, he’d get it over, at most, 3 years.
What am I missing here?
Raul Ibanez hits .236 with 18 home runs for the Phils and makes $12mm. And when the Phils signed him, he had similar stats — sub .300 BA, with around 25 HRs. JD Drew with the Red Sox, always someone who could hit HRs, has only had one real season of HRs (i.e. one where he hit over 30). He makes $14MM and his career average is only where Cuddy’s is.
There are teams out there that are willing to drop $12 MM on a lot less than Cuddy. But I think it’s possible that he could get that kind of money on the open market. Other than his age, the one thing the Twins have going for them is that there’s still an economic downturn/recession and so maybe LA, Philly, Chicago, NYs, Boston, Atlanta and the like will resist paying him the $12MM. But it’s nuts to think he’ll take a paycut to sign here. He’s making $10.5MM this year.
But he's loaned out half his enormous DVD collection to teammates
And he won’t get them back if he leaves.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
But
Cuddy can repurchase DVD’s on the open market. Most stores have them for $5 each, and pawn shops will have them too. Joe Mauer can keep Cuddyer’s collection of Full House.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
And watch it alone at night, eating frozen cookie dough
Shedding muffled tears for his lost buddy . . .
Steve Goodman lives.
And
Then he will go on the DL for food poisoning, and all of Twinkie Town will be wondering what the heck happened.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
Better consider more than HR's and batting average when comparing Drew and Cuddy.
Until this year, Drew hadn’t posted an OPS+ under 100 since 1999, and he hasn’t posted a single season WAR below 2 since his rookie year.
Cuddyer’s career average OPS+ is a good 14 points under Drew’s and until this season posted a single season WAR over 2 only once.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 26, 2011 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
The Twins will have very little power if Kubel is gone
and I don’t mean just for the rest of this year.
Morneau – power is there but but who knows if he remembers how to flick the switch back on
Mauer – no power
Valencia – some power but not going to put the fear in any pitcher
Cuddyer – kind of like Valencia although pitch him low and away and he might just wave at the ball
Span / Revere – put them on a cosmic treadmill and they might have enough power to light the Cities or travel through time
I hope Kubel doesn’t go anywhere…
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
yeah - best case scenarios
Cuddy/Valencia – 20 HRs each
Plouffe – 15 HR
Mauer – 2 HR
Morney – 20 if he bounces back
Revere – 1 inside the parker
Nishi, Butera, Tolbert, Casilla, etc – 3 HR combined
not too intimidating
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 26, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
the kids in Williamsport might be shaking in their sneakers…
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
by caluofmn on Aug 26, 2011 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Those are pretty weak best case scenarios
Cuddy’s hit 30 before… Mauer’s hit 29 (but I can see putting his realistic “best case” closer to 10-15 in Target Field)… Morneau’s “if he bounces back” best-case is more like 30-35… Casilla hit 7 a few years ago… Denard’s hit 8… all this assumes that if Kubel leaves, the Twins don’t sign a cheap guy with 20-homer potential to DH.
They’re still a pretty weak power team, but it’s not like they’re the ’99 team (team leader: Ron Coomer, 16 HR) or anything that weak.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
call me a pessimist on the power front
I don’t see Cuddy hitting 30. 25 maybe
Mauer, maybe 10
We definitely need a 20+ homer DH/OF type. Think Shane Mack. I loved that guy.
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 26, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if Mauer will hit 15 HRs
If Morneau gets right again 30-35 HRs could be hit. I hope he can get back to that level by next year.
With Cuddyer I’d take the under if you set the HR total at 25 everytime.
I have to admit I forgot Span almost got to 10.
If Kubel goes, the Twins have to find another guy who is a power threat.
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
Soriano could be REALLY cheap
He’s a 20HR hitter and I bet he could handle 1B in a pinch.
NO! Absolutely not.
I would rather overpay Cuddyer than have the shitstorm that is Alfonso Soriano on the Twins.
If Garza/Slowey/Delmon were clubhouse cancers, they’ll seem bright and cheery in comparison to Soriano.
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
Never heard about any problems when he was winning
I’ll give a lot of players a pass for not enjoying their time with the Cubs.
Ok
So Yabbs wants Soriano for $18 million per season from 2012 through 2014. At least he has a 23 WAR compared to Cuddyer’s 11.9. Also Defensive war is -5.6 for Soriano vs -5.3 for Cuddyer. Meanwhile Cuddyer is going to be 33 in 2012 compared to Soriano’s 36 year old age. I would only consider trading for Soriano if Cuddyer’s asking price is too high. However, it would be a good way for us to unload Justin Morneau because then the trade would cost us only $4 million more for 2012 and 2013, and Justin is a younger player despite concussion concerns.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
Any team that trades for Soriano would expect the Cubs to pick up 90+% of that contract, minimum.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Hell yes
I wouldn’t pay Soriano more than $3M a season.
He could be a decent DH option that wouldn't eat up a bench spot
that is one positive to seeing thome go.
Soriano is a legit option. He can hit DINGERS!!!!
I am mostly quibbling with the term you used
You said “best case scenario”, and since Cuddy’s hit 30 before, his best case scenario should most likely closer to 30 than 20 homers. Your numbers were more along the lines of predictions than best cases, and that was mostly what I was commenting on.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
by BeefMaster on Aug 26, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
never again
Cuddy will never again get to 30. That was his peak year. About 20 as an average sounds right.
I’m with you on Maruer and Morneau.
Just tweeted by Buster...
Since Justin Morneau’s concussion on July 7, 2010, the Twins have gotten one home run in 368 at-bats in Target Field from Mauer and Morneau.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
how many pop flys and ground outs to 2B?
ok, that was kind of mean…
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
Not that mean, accurate. And the date says July 7,2010. 2010, not 2011.
I was not shocked, but I was saddened.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I am with the others
Morneau: 35-40 home runs if he is healthy
Mauer: 20-25 home runs, but he needs to adjust his bat to Target Field.
Valencia: 25-30 home runs, going out on a limb here
Cuddyer (if he stays): 25-30 home runs
Span: 10-15 Home runs if he is healthy
Revere: I wouldn’t recommend him hitting inside the parkers, but if he works on his hitting with new hitting coach Chili Davis, he can maybe hit 5-10 home runs per year.
Casilla: Can maybe hit 5-10 home runs per season.
Plouffe: 25-30 home runs easy
On the upper end, that is 190 home runs per season or 160 minus Cuddyer’s. The good news is that we have power hitters in the minors. Take a look at Roger13’s posts and you will see what I mean.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
I think you're a bit optimistic on Mauer and Plouffe.
Otherwise I think I agree with you.
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
I think this is a team that should be lifting weights more.
Or else, they will start to look like the manager.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
"...and rolling with the 2011 rotation, in the vain hope that good health is all they need to be effective."
Good health, yes, and BETTER DEFENSE!!!
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 26, 2011 10:46 AM EDT reply actions
There will be changes
The Twins will make sure of that. I’ll keep tabs and report attendence this weekend, but it wasn’t that good yesterday with some holes in the upper stands.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
Anyone else a little miffed at the top comment on that stupid Head and Shoulders "Hats off" thing on the side?
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
LOL
I mean, that’s not very nice, no, and should not be on a blog about the Minnesota Twins. However, it is kind of awesome that someone could get that posted and actually have it show up.
Plus, “Twat Waffles” kind of made me laugh, and I needed a laugh this morning. Gotta be able to laugh at ourselves this last year in sports… it beats the alternative.
Being from Minnesota, it would be rude to put something clever here.
You all realize that even by clearing all of this cap room....
The Twins upper management is convinced that attendance will lag next year and that they therefore have to have a smaller payroll. (but really, they just wanna make as much money as possible while staying competitive). Cuddy, Kubel, Capps, probs nathan are all gone. I wanna say that puts the team at $65? mil. Expect a payroll of around $75mil. The twins are back to their good ole cheap ways!
that's a bit extreme
Capps is definitely gone but I see Cudd and Nathan coming back
The beard abides.
by Jason Kubel's Beard on Aug 26, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
going cheap
That’s actually not the worst idea in the world, but I don’t think it will happen.
by matswilander on Aug 26, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
That's interesting
And I’m sure you have plenty of evidence to back that theory up. Right?
There’s no way the Twins team can reduce payroll to the levels you’re talking about and stay competitive, given their existing contracts.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
That's ridiculous
Mauer, Morneau, Span, Baker, Blackburn, Pavano, Nishi, Nathan (buyout) puts us at 65. Arb increases and filling out a 25 man roster will bring us over 75. Frankie 5, Slowey 3, Casilla 1, Perkins 1, Duensing .8. 80-85 would be the absolute floor, but I don’t see them sitting under 100 at all.
The Payroll will be at least $120 million
And even more if MLB gets a new television deal. In a recent article (which you can find in the fanshots), Dave St. Peter said that the payroll is a function of revenue. This means we will be making a free agent splash this offseason if we have $55 million to spend. We can even unload Justin Morneau if Chris Parmlee passes his audition.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
prices matter
Cuddy will be willing to sign cheap. How cheap is a good question, but less than market. If he’s cheap enough, I’d be happy to have him as next year doesn’t look so good on offense.
As others have said, having dumped Young, I don’t see how they can lose both Cuddy and Kubel. They need at least one of them to have any power at all in the outfield.
But if Smith really wants to earn his keep, he will figure out how to meld them into a single guy for next year who can hit both righties and lefties. If they were cheaper, they’d be a great platoon.
But gardy doenst understand how to platoon
Besides, the players are PISSED at upper management. Cuddy and Kubel are not giving the twins a home town discount. Everyone is bashing Smith (and rightfully so to some degree). But ownership is setting the budget alot lower and telling smith to get rid of certain guys.
by ScottyD4Life on Aug 26, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Bill Smith kicked my puppy!
Gardenhire can’t even spell platoon!
The ghost of Carl Pohlad will replace the cash in the Twins’ bank account with fruit flavored marshmallows!
Why are we sparing Dave St Peter? He’s from the treacherous heathen state of North Dakota for God’s sake. He’s intentionally sabotaging the Minnesota sports teams … one at a time … slowly, over many years.
Don’t even get me started on TC Bear or Paul Molitor!
I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 26, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 5 recs
I will have you know
That you are making fun of God’s country my good man. On the other side, the only good things about Montana are the Mountains and Billings. Other than that, I would whip through the state as quick as I can.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
That's What Custer Said.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
あなたが深淵に長い間熟視場合、深淵はあなたにも眼差し。 -Nishi
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 26, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Ahhhh, North Dakota!
Where there’s a pretty girl behind every tree.
by z-squad on Aug 26, 2011 8:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 7 recs
lol!
I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 26, 2011 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know...
I hear Montana has some of the finest sheep in country
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
I missed the article saying players were PISSED at upper management
I think the fans are, and to an extent rightfully so…
just saying.
by diehardtwinsfan on Aug 26, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
If the players are pissed, they aren't talking
But the fans are, and something has to be done about it. Most likely, Bill Smith and Gardy are gone while Paul Molitor gets a chance at managing the Twins with Chili Davis as hitting coach and Jack Morris as pitching coach.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
What Doug_2050 doesn't know that Brian Wilson is Creepy because of the Snakes in his beard (SportsCenter Ad), While I hate Snakes with a passion.
A vision quest you had after eating McDonald's again?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
あなたが深淵に長い間熟視場合、深淵はあなたにも眼差し。 -Nishi
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 26, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
there she blows
echos might loud in truck stop restroom… and small children cling to their mothers claiming they can hold it until they get home…
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
how do you know the players are pissed at upper management?
Come see all your favorite EPIC fails @ www.minnesotatwins.com!
no need to platoon Kubel at this point...
he’s gotten way better against lefties.
Just sayin what I observe is all
And what I believe is going to be the reality.
What are the next Powerball numbers?
Since your view into the future is so clear…
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 26, 2011 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought the sentence structure was poor there too.
My guess is he meant to say was “what he thinks the reality is going to be” rather than “whatever I say it going to be the reality”.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Just say no to CJ Wilson...
it’s impossible to get him without way overpaying. He’s the top FA starter on the market (CC will not leave the Yanks) so he’s going to get probably $100M plus. I would never pay that.
Find an ace via trade.
I mean, think about it...
we’ll be bidding against the Yankees and Rangers, at least. Not to mention every other team in baseball. That’s not a bidding war we should want to win.
Not only that, but it’s unrealistic, both for the money, and for the attitude; remember the comments he made about the Twins earlier this year? That can’t have sat well with Gardy.
And really, is CJ Wilson an “ace”? I’m not so sure he’s any better than Baker or Liriano (I assume Liriano will be back to form next year). Get a guy like Greinke via trade (even having to give up guys) instead.
What chips are we going to give away to get an ace?
or rather what chips do we even have?
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
Well, major league guys like Slowey, Valencia, Span, Duensing are all possible...
and then you have tons of high ceiling talent in the minors that’s ready within 2 years in Hicks/Gibson/Wimmers/Arcia/Morales/Benson/Salcedo/Hendriks, etc. I think at this point Sano would be my only “off limits” guy.
Bye-bye to all my favorite players
Thome, Kubes, Cuddy . . .
Still miss Torii and A.J. (and the retired Radke and the Naked Mike.)
Hope Morneau gets hits groove back.
We’re going to see a lot more selling and not much more buying for a few years. with somebody’s massive contract clogging up the works.
Steve Goodman lives.
Morneau's contract?
They’re getting a lot less out of Morneau’s deal than Mauer.
I think there's more hope for Morneau to revert to MVP-type form
If Mauer’s dropoff is caused by his size and his position destroying his legs, that’s not going to get better (and he’s not worth anything near half that money if he isn’t catching and hitting .325+ with doubles power at least.) If Morneau’s is all still concussion-related, that’s scary (a new concussion could end his career) but he’s got a chance if he wears a football helmet from now on. Also his contract isn’t as long. And I just like him more, he’s funnier.
But yeah, he’s worth mentioning in the money-drain mix, too.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I keep seeing people say
That Mauer’s not worth his money if he isn’t catching. I don’t get that. Guys who can catch but can’t hit do not get the big bucks.
Mauer’s contract is all about his hitting and his marketability. I just don’t see the big drop off in value if he is playing first, or third, or left field.
It's just that
You can find a guy who hits singles at a .300 clip pretty cheap if they play 1B, 3B, or corner outfield. Those are supposedly “power positions.” If a catcher hits like that, he’s worth more, but not anywhere near $20-plus. When one guy eats almost a quarter of your payroll, he better be Albert Pujols (which Mauer was in his contract year.) I hate to bag on the guy, by all accounts he’s very kind, but we’re in deep payroll doo-doo for a LONG time unless he either catches a lot more or hits the ball a lot harder.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
This is overblown
We likely are paying him $10M too much per year. So what? Everyone makes makes it seem like we have to make $30M-$40M in cuts to balance that. With the new stadium we can actually afford it.
That's certainly what the F.O. is thinking
And they’re better at their jobs than I would be. Hopefully this year was a fluke. If Mauer continues to slip, though, that marketing value drops to near nil. But all great players (if he gets back to being one) have bad years, and injury-riddled stretches. Maybe he changes his workout regimen or something and goes back to Butt-Kicking-Ness.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope to God we are not paying in 23 mil a year for marketing reasons.
In his MVP year, he was worth $23 million and then half again as much more. This year he is worth about 4 million if you like those new fangled stats. Unless he improves a LOT in the coming years from this year, his contract is an enormous albatross.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
I need to learn how to post photos
This comment needs a shot of John Cleese carrying a huge dead albatross!
Steve Goodman lives.
If you want to put pictures yourself, just put something in the subject line and then click on the little tree looking icon below.
That will ask you for a URL of a picture. To find that, just right click on a picture from a goodle image search or something and click properties. The URL should show up there. Just copy and paste the URL link and you can post a pic.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
Yes!
(Although it should read “Bad Contract” instead.)
How does one do that? It it just by clicking the “Image” button? I’ll try it . . .
Steve Goodman lives.
You don't care that we are likely paying him 10 million/year too much?
You’ve apparently found a way to rationalize trivializing nearly 9% of this year’s payroll.
If the Twins end up moving Mauer to first base or a COF spot, Mauer essentially becomes John Olerud (career wOBA for Olerud = .376, Mauer = .377). Good player still? Yes. Worth 20% of a team’s payroll? Good lord, no.
Mauer’s a very good player (and one of the very best if he’s at catcher and hitting like he has before this year), but that contract has the potential to be franchise-crippling.
by WolvesFan03 on Aug 26, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
10 mil is high
$5/yr is the more likely overpay for the next 4 years or so. Yes, rightly or wrongly, I’m banking on health.
I was using DavidRF's words
Truth is, we have no idea how much Mauer is likely to be overpaid going forward—it depends on his health, hitting, and position. But in the event that he moves from catcher, he’ll lose a lot of value right there.
I'm just being a realist. The money is *gone*
The big jump in our payroll was 2009-2010… the year before Mauer’s raise kicked in.
People are painting Mauer to be this generations Danny Ferry where we have to cut all other talented players just to keep him. There’s no cap. We can afford to overpay. The fans wanted Mauer and the team gave him to them. This won’t be that big of a deal.
We can't afford to overpay when Mauer isn't the only mistake we've made and will likely make
Mauer’s contract, at the very least, significantly decreases the margin for error that this franchise has. Lately, for those paying close attention, the front office/management hasn’t given much reason to believe that they are a step ahead of the rest of the league in terms of talent evaluation, which means we’re likely to make more mistakes (Nishi vs Hardy, anyone?) that we can’t correct by throwing money at free agents because we’ve already tied up so much in overpaying guys like Mauer, Capps (this year), Nathan (this year), Morneau, etc.
And yes, guys like Capps and Nathan come off the books this year, but they are good recent examples of the Twins making mistakes beyond Mauer that hamstring their ability to deal with personnel decisions that go awry (again, like Nishi vs Hardy, or signing Pavano and giving Deunsing a starting job).
Mauer is a big piece of the puzzle for this team right now, and to act like his contract doesn’t matter is just shortsighted.
Funny, yes, but actually,
Observing the Wolves front office is a great exercise for people to see how management can screw up (repeatedly).
And how a HUGE contract
For a great player (even a very durable one) can be troublesome.
Steve Goodman lives.
NBA has a cap, MLB no cap
We increased the payroll by $40M and gave Mauer a $11M raise.
Where’s the crippling? Mauer could dress up in a plushy costume and just be the mascot and we’ve still increased the payroll for everyone else.
So your position now is that we could tie up 20% of the payroll in someone who doesn't even play
and that still wouldn’t be crippling vis-a-vis our competitors (i.e the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.)?
That’s an interesting construct you’ve managed to erect, where devoting 20% of the payroll to one player in a sport where rosters are 25 deep doesn’t really matter.
Target Field!
2008 – Mauer $6.3M / OtherTwins $50M
2009 – Mauer $10.5M / OtherTwins $55M
2010 – Mauer $12.5M / OtherTwins $85M
2011 – Mauer $23M / OtherTwins $89M
So, yes, I’d like Mauer to provide as much value as he can. But his contract is not “crippling” the team.
That "other twins" category
Comprises 24 other players, meaning we spend an average of 3.7 million on players other than Joe Mauer. In other words, Joe Mauer makes 6 times as much as we spend on average on any other twins player.
Again, if that doesn’t have the potential to be crippling, you’ve basically convinced yourself that no contract can ever be crippling.
To be clear, Mauer is likely to be better than the worst-case “crippling” scenario, but I think his contract compromises our ability to improve more than some Twins fans seem willing to acknowledge.
Also, I should note
that I really like Joe Mauer, and he was chronically underpaid and underrated prior to his recent contract. In some sense, he has totally earned his pay for these first few seasons just by virtue of the yeoman contributions he made b/w 2006-2010. But there’s a difference, I think, b/w what he’s earned and what’s good for the franchise gong forward.
Also, I’ve really only made the limited point that his contract may in fact be severely limiting. I don’t think there’s anything twins management can do about it right now but hope that he bounces back and do everything in their power to keep him at catcher (where his value is at its peak).
I'm saying we got a one-time Target Field bonus
And gave a large portion of that to Mauer. We’re spending more on the “other 24” when we were on the whole team in the Metrodome days.
David is right
In our last year at the dome, we spent $66 million on the entire roster including Joe Mauer. This season, we spend $89 million on the other 24 players. Next season, that will likely rise to $97 million for the other 24.
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Last comment
But this doesn’t prove what you think it does. The question isn’t “are we spending enough money on players other than Joe Mauer?” The question is whether, given our payroll in its entirety, are we spending money wisely overall? Remember, the 23 million “bonus” we’re giving Mauer could be spent elsewhere.
Joe Mauer was worth the 23 million/year he’s paid now in 2008, 2009, and 2010. The problem, however, is that he’s unlikely to be worth close to that over the life of the contract for a few critical reasons:
1. Injuries – he’s already been worth significantly less than his contract based on injuries this season
2. Deterioration in play due to age – his contract runs into his mid-30s; if he stays at catcher, his performance will likely decline, and if he moves from catcher, see #3
3. Likely change in position – Mauer’s value from 2008-2010 largely came from being a very good bat at an extremely offensively-challenged position. If he moves, especially to 1B/COF, as the Twins seem to want to do, he’ll lose a lot of his value because the positions he moves to are easier to play and we gain less of an advantage from his bat at those positions.
We don’t know exactly how the contract will play out because we’re not sure about what his future performance, injury frequency, and position will be. But I think it’s fair to say that Mauer’s contract is likely to compromise our ability to keep up with the Yankees/Red Sox, etc. and other great teams if he moves positions or doesn’t return to something closer to his 2008-2010 forms.
Ok, one last comment
People are also falsely equating the success we had with a low payroll in the mid-2000s to what the team should be able to do with the same money in 2012 and beyond. The problem though, is that the reason the twins were so good with such a small payroll in the mid-2000s is that they had graduated for years a # of high draft picks and high-level prospects they had horded during the lean years.
The Twins don’t have the same volume of cheap, high-level prospects in the pipe right now by structure—they’ve been competing for a number of years now. We can’t expect 66 million to go as far as it did in the mid-2000s because we simply haven’t had the assets—high draft picks and high-level prospects acquired by trading key veterans—to do so.
They're not factoring in inflation either
Ballplayers cost more now than they did then. It’s essentially the same amount of money.
I’ve heard the Twins want Mauer to learn 3B. They’re not stupid.
If he moves positions
3B is the outcome we should all be hoping for.
$66M was 2009... not that long ago
The high draft picks we had in the lean years included Mauer & Cuddyer, but they also included Adam Johnson, BJ Garbe, Ryan Mills, Travis Lee. We’ve gotten a ton of value from lower picks in the past. The current dry spell is not due to the lack of top-ten picks, its just bad picks in general. Baker’s a 2nd rounder. Morneau is a 3rd rounder. Kubel’s a 12th rounder. Others are first rounders but 20th slot or below (e.g. Span).
Inflation works both ways. Mauer’s contract didn’t come close to setting any records. Stars have been making 23M+ since 2001. If revenues keep going up then his contract goes down in real terms each year.
I agree that he should put up AS-caliber numbers to warrant his contract. Independent of the money I want him to do well, because that’s more fun to watch. But the magnitude of panic about how he’s crippled the franchise for years is overblown.
+1 million
Joe is underpaid, if anything, given some of his peers (Ryan Howard/Mark Teixeira/Cliff Lee, etc.).
Agreed.
People who say we overpaid significantly for Mauer look at the contract as a zero-sum game. It wasn’t.
1) There’s no cap in baseball. So comparing it to the NFL or NBA is waste of time.
2) With a new TV contract looming, revenue is going to go up across the board.
3) Mauer’s visibility as a player gives the Twins marketability they would not have otherwise. Now point 3 works a whole lot better when Joe is Joe, and not the shadow of himself we saw this season. But to say he lost all ancillary benefit to the organization is false.
4) As has been shown, even adjusted for inflation, the Twin’s payroll has gone up for the other players, not down. Even if we assume the payroll stays flat in the 120mil range next season, they’ll have money to spend.
Will they spend it wisely? That’s another question. At this point, I have no faith in Bill Smith to do so.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 26, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
You're locked into this concept
And you’re probably right. Maybe the big problem is hitting a soft stretch in our scouting — not being able, this year, to replace outgoing older, more expensive players with younger, cheaper ones like we did in the past.
The bottom line is people who love Mauer would be happy to see him here in a mascot costume. People who aren’t attached to him wish we had a $5 mil average catcher, a solid backup, and $15 more to spend wisely. But it’s all about the spending wisely, and I agree Mauer isn’t the biggest problem if they spend foolishly.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is the point I was making above though
Teams are going to spend foolishly inevitably. It comes with the territory when teams don’t have perfect information when they sign players to contracts. Pitchers, for instance, are notoriously risky contracts because of the high likelihood of injury.
The problem with Mauer’s contract is that he reduces our margin for error significantly because, in addition to the 20% of the payroll he occupies, the Twins will invariably end up paying too much for players who end up injured or ineffective due to reasons that we couldn’t have foreseen. (With this front office, they’ll likely do it in cases where they should have foreseen problems.)
Other teams don’t have to grapple with the lack of flexibility in the same way because they don’t have a contract like Mauer’s on the books.
I almost made this response
But you said it. Let’s hope Joe gets back to batting-title form and all this will be academic. It’s just that in making predictions, you have to consider the worst-case scenario (injured .280 hitting outfielder) along with the best. Fun discussion!
Steve Goodman lives.
I still don't understand how $10M "cripples" us
This is why everyone hates Mauer I guess.
Its not ideal that we’re overpaying him, but that’s how baseball works. You underpay them before they’re free agents and then you overpay them after.
It's crippling in the event that Mauer moves to 1B/COF
and if he hits somewhere between this year (.305 wOBA) and his MVP-caliber years (.381 wOBA). It’s possible Mauer posts something in the .340 wOBA range, in which case he’d be worth somewhere in the 5-10 million range (playing at first base), meaning he’d possibly be overpaid by 13-18 million.
I still think you underestimate the impact of wasting nearly 10% of a team’s payroll. That’s the salary of an impact bat or starter that we suddenly won’t have (or even two quality middle relievers).
And those teams did well
But consider inflation. Players cost more now than they did five years ago, of course. Still, good point.
Steve Goodman lives.
Like Brewer said
With no cap and inflation, the 2006-2009 budgets will quickly look pretty inadequate. Plus, the 2006-2009 teams had MVP-caliber Joe Mauer, who was grossly underpaid, and the situation I’m forecasting involves a significantly less valuable Mauer. Is another Joe Mauer coming around the pike through the draft for us in the next 3-6 years? Probably not.
Well, with inflation, Mauer's contract gets easier each year
That goes both ways.
The lack of talent coming up from the minors is the bigger problem. We never used to overpay for relievers. The core of the team used to be younger. Kubel is 29. Morneau is 30.
.381
is closer to his career average wOBA (.377) than his MVP season wOBA (.438) He’s only been .340 range or lower twice. This season and 2005
Mauer can be
a 5 win player even when he isn’t catching. That makes him worth $20 million.
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by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 26, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Which I grant you is a dumb reason to like a guy
(Paging Matt LeCroy.) But it’s baseball, not football. I want personalities! Call me selfish.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm worried that the Twins are clearing salary space...
Just to re-sign Cuddy and maybe for Nathan’s option(not sure I understand all the ins and outs of that scenario). This year proved that we need some new faces…correction, PROVEN new faces. If someone wants to pay Cuddy type A money, good for him, but it shouldn’t be us.
I do hope the Pohlads are paying attention to where their money is going. Right now, this franchise is truly fixable with the right players, but it is also precariously near to being a sub-500 team for a decade. It made no sense to pay Joe and Justin that much money if we aren’t willing to put together a good supporting cast. I think that’s one of the things that is frustrating fans. Are they trying to contend or are they re-building? If they plan to contend they must make aquisitions like last season with Hardy and Hudson.
This is a wonderful franchise with great fans, but if things continue as they are now, that fine, new ballpark is going to be an echo chamber way too soon.
The other teams could make trouble for us if they win. — Yogi Berra
Re: Nathan
He has an option for $12.5 M next year or a $2 M buyout.
Fudgesicle Fudgesicle Fudgesicle
The likely option there is pay the Buyout and re-sign him for less than 10.5M
Cheering for inconsistent, undisciplined teams [Twins, Wild, Packers, Hawkeyes] since 1989. "False Hope is better than No Hope"
Maybe give the F.O. a one-year "ooopsies" pass?
Assume that the Hardy/Hudson types of signings are the norm and this year an anomaly? Then, if next year is an equally colossal cluster fart, really start panicking.
And most fine new ballparks are echo chambers after six years or so. They often prove to be the payroll equivalent of adding onto your garage because you’ve got too much clutter to park your car, then ending up with a two-car garage filled with twice the clutter and parking in the driveway again.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Aug 26, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
@randballsstu
Your Friday morning post is supposed to make me laugh. This post did not make me laugh. This post made me cry. MAKE ME LAUGH, CLOWN.
by Brad B. on Aug 26, 2011 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Want to laugh
Go to the fanposts section and read my latest fanpost.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
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"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
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by less cowbell, more 'neau on Aug 26, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
And if you want a good used car call BR-549
by z-squad on Aug 26, 2011 8:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
They do need to get an ace but I share the same fear of staying put
Bill Smith loves to do 2 things stockpile relievers at any cost and keep with the same players to a fault always expecting them to produce like they did that one year.
Idk if Wilson is worth the money but they should try because I dont think there is a lot available via trades. I would however be open to making a package around Hicks since the organization is hell bent on him being a switch hitter and playing in high A ball sell high on him we have enough outfield prospects.
Free Carlos Guiterrez! Free Chuck James!, Free Anthony Slama!
Sad but true
In my mind, the worst-case scenario is keeping Cuddyer, letting Kubel go, and rolling with the 2011 rotation, in the vain hope that good health is all they need to be effective.
I worry that that last scenario is also the most likely to come true.
That is where we are headed. The ole “put lipstick on a pig” trick.
Twins cannot contend in 2012 if the stars don't turn it around
No team can suffer the lost production of all their stars and expect to contend. The main reason the Twins are suffering through this year is terrible seasons from Mauer, Morneau, Liriano and Nathan. That and the terrible decision to cut bait on JJ Hardy have hurt the team to the tune of 20 wins. I’ll plot “expected” WAR for the Twins to contend and actual WAR below
Mauer 7 1.2
Morneau 4.5 -1.1
Liriano 4 0.8
Nathan 3 -0.1
SS 3 -2
Totals 21.5 -1.2
What team can withstand a 20 WAR swing in production from their best players? Add 20 wins to this year’s team and they’re 74-56.
They HAVE to go into next season depending on Mauer, Morneau and Liriano to bounce back. They don’t have any other choice.
by DJL44 on Aug 26, 2011 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
agreed wholeheartedly...
I still think we win this crappy division this year with everyone healthy. And I still think we’ll win this division next year when those guys return to health, as they should be expected to. This team goes nowhere without a healthy Mauer and Morneau. Ditto for Francisco. I’m sorry, but they don’t. Just as any team goes nowhere without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, or the Sox go nowhere without Adrian Gonzalez and Dustin Pedroia. Or the Yankees without Robinson Cano and Tex. Just not realistic.
The problem is that this team needs to do MORE than just having those guys healthy again if they want to go beyond winning this crappy division. Upgrades in the MI, rotation, and bullpen are the keys.
Well, with their pitching staff, the Phillies could have a lineup like the Mariners and win 90 games...
But I get your point.
Let loose the hogs of war!
Dogs of war..
Whatever farm animal of war, Lana...
What can Bill Smith do this offseason?
He can fill out the bullpen. They’re in desperate need of a good RH reliever and any adequate arm will help. At the moment the 2012 bullpen is Glen Perkins and one of those miscellaneous boxes you find at an auction for a buck. The Twins should lead the league in minor league bullpen signings with invitations to spring training. If Alex Burnett is one of the top 5 options for next year’s bullpen then Bill Smith has failed. The $20M coming off the books for Capps and Nathan should be enough. Dealing off Nick Blackburn could add a little more to this budget.
He can sign a free agent OF/1B/DH type, preferably righthanded (that sounds an awful lot like Cuddyer). He probably needs to sign 2 of these because Joe Benson is still toolsy and raw. The $23M they were spending on Young, Kubel, Cuddyer and Thome should be plenty.
He can get a veteran utility infielder. I expect Valencia, Casilla, Plouffe and Morneau to be the infield with Nishioka as a utility player but they need a better plan “B” than Tolbert or Luke Hughes. This should be relatively cheap ($2M). If he somehow manages to find a real SS I’ll be impressed.
He can exile Drew Butera to Rochester. How many more effing plate appearances do they need to waste on him before they finally realize he can’t hit? HE CAN’T HIT!!!! I’d love to see Ramon Hernandez come in to fill a Mike Redmond role at 2 years $7M. If not him there are several other cheap options that are markedly better than Drew Butera.
Unfortunately he doesn’t have the resources to get an ace starter, all-star first baseman or MVP caliber player as a free agent (there aren’t any available) or in trade (likewise). They’ll have to get those seasons from Liriano, Morneau and Mauer.
Great fits
OF/1B – Cuddyer, Kubel, Ryan Ludwick, Josh Willingham, David DeJesus
IF – Omar Infante or Ramon Santiago if Infante gets paid
C – Ramon Hernandez
Bullpen – Who knows, just bring in lots of guys
agree with a whole lot of this...
i’d still try to get an ace via trade (trade off some of the OF prospects; gotta give something to get something) but otherwise i agree fully.
They may need to make that move
Not sure if it is this offseason, mid-2012 or in 2013.
trade deadline next year might make the most sense...
we’ll just have to see. but if they are going to get an ace for at least a few years, better to get him sooner rather than later. there’s value in that extra 3 months, or year, of pitching for us.
I'll clarify
Pujols and Fielder ARE available but neither one is coming to the Twins.
I'm sure you know about it already, but
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
Makes rosterbating easier.
by spanspanspan on Aug 26, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I like most of this plan, too
Unfortunately, I’m not sure the Twins view the situation with the same level of urgency. They will be able to place a lot of blame for this season off with injuries (definitely legitimate to a great extent, but it’s not everything), and I’m not sure we see a minimized role for Nishi, Butera, or a Tolbert-like player as long as Gardenhire is at the helm.
Butera wasn't injured
He just can’t hit. They can’t go into another season with the worst backup catcher in baseball when they know Mauer might not make a full season behind the plate. That’s like raising the white flag in the offseason.
There is a sense of urgency in the outfield and bullpen. The bullpen is empty and the outfield/DH is short 2 players. Pencil in Rene Tosoni as your starting right fielder or Lester Oliveros as your RH setup man and you’re saying you don’t expect to contend.
Am I the only one who has some hope for Oliveros?
I was thinking let Nathan go, and have Perkins and Oliveros fight for the closer spot. But maybe I’m crazy.
by spanspanspan on Aug 26, 2011 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry, agreed on the Tosoni/Oliveros thing...
I wouldn’t “count” on those guys in big roles. As backups/backup plans? Sure. But you need to at least go into the year with capable starters.
Agreed on this
Relievers are kind of unpredictable. Who knew Mijares would go from pretty darn good in 2009 to mediocre in 2010 to terrible in 2011? Who knew Perkins would suddenly be so good?
But we need starters. I can live with a couple question marks in the pen or at a position, but I hate feeling like the game is already lost when I see the projected starters.
by spanspanspan on Aug 26, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
A couple question marks are fine
Right now there are 6 question marks.
yup...
it’s like we said before the season about the INF; 4 question marks.
Valencia; we all thought he’d have a sophomore slump (how much so was debated)
Yoshi: some excitement for him, but had never played a game in the ML.
Casilla; question mark; he has actually worked out this year.
Morneau; health
It’s a big reason why so many of us wanted to keep Hardy. You can’t have question marks all over the field or a few of those question marks are bound to turn into answers that you don’t want.
Butera's defense is not nearly as good as people say, either.
Most people think it must be good because he can’t hit, but while he has an above-average arm, his throws are not accurate, and I don’t even think he calls a very good game.
Statistically he doesn't.
The ERA of pitchers is higher with him catching the Mauer.
Overall, his defensive WAR has been inferior to Mauer’s over the course of his career. This year, that might be different, but only because of injuries.
There’s not about Butera to justify him being on a MLB roster.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 26, 2011 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Mauer's not overpaid. If anything he's underpaid...
one bad, injury-filled year doesn’t change that. Are we going to go back and retroactively give Mauer money for the value that he outperformed his previous contract? Didn’t think so.
Mauer has been as good offensively as Mark Teixeira in their respective careers (better than Tex before this injured year) and Mauer plays C and is a marketing force whereas Tex plays 1b. And their contracts are about the same. Mauer would have gotten close to $30M on the open market IMO with the Yanks/Sox bidding on him. And he’ll return to being fully worth his value next year with a full offseason of rest.
Honestly, a lot of this fan base doesn’t seem to deserve Joe Mauer; way too reactionary. You can’t criticize a guy for being hurt, which he clearly has been this year.
by DJSkillz on Aug 26, 2011 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 7 recs
+1
From a strictly baseball math standpoint, you’re dead on.
From a team marketing standpoint, Mauer is the best thing the Twins have going for them. The revenue ‘lost’ by letting a home-grown star walk very easily would’ve meant cutting revenue to the bad days to break even.
He had 1 injury-plagued year. What player doesn’t? And given the fact the entire roster went through injury hell, (two years in a row), maybe the issue isn’t #7.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 26, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm really sick of people complaining about Mauer's contract.
He got that contract based on what he did on in 2009 when he was the league MVP. He would have probably gotten more money on the open market. Personally I would have been pissed if the Twins hadn’t offered him a good contract and he had signed somewhere else. It would have been in the same line for me when the Twins didn’t come up with the money for Torii Hunter. The majority of fans only have a problem with the contract now because he’s injured and people are calling him soft. I seriously doubt that Joe Mauer would rather be sitting on the bench than playing right now. I’m sure he will be back to his old self next year and people will love him again.
"Somebody once asked me if I ever went up to the plate trying to hit a home run. I said, 'Sure, every time." --Mickey Mantle
by ilovethetwins on Aug 26, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly...
the same people bitching and whining about him and his contract right now, like little girls, will go right back to “loving him” next year and will pretend that they never said such things. it’s ridiculous.
The Twins HAD to sign Joe Mauer. Had to. with the new park coming. And it is NOT a bad contract. He’ll be fine.
Would've been worse than Hunter.
Hunter wasn’t a local kid who grew up a fan of the team.
This would’ve been akin to the Cubs letting Sandberg go in his prime. Suicidal in every aspect.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 26, 2011 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
and with a new ballpark opening, a ballpark we had been waiting for for 30 years.
again, the mauer bashing is just bitching and whining from a lot of little girls who are looking for a reason to bitch. nothing more.
Stu, I'm 100% with your offseason plan...
But my money’s on the Twins taking the latter route. Kubel provides a valuable power bat and he’s entering his prime, although Cuddy’s defensive versatility would be missed. But we need the money for new pitching (I too want to see them pursue Wilson), although honestly I don’t have any bright ideas beyond that. It depends on who goes and how much money is freed up. If they have any extra money for another catcher, infielder, or solid reliever or two, that would be a huge step.
But, as DJL44 pointed out above, there is no way they’ll reach their potential if they’re not healthy.
When I was a kid, I would cover a blue futon with a white blanket, prop it up with a fan set on high, and pretend it was the Metrodome. That should tell you a lot.
by MarshalltheIrish on Aug 26, 2011 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
you’re kidding, right? getting rid of Cuddy would be the final nail in the coffin for the Twins. tell me who else has been able to play where ever Gardy needs him? (granted, he may not play the best at every position, but he’s will8ing to step up and play) look at how much “the Ice Cream Man” (aka Joe Mauer) whined about having to play at first base? he’s supposed to be the team franchise, he should have stepped up and played first, no questions asked. and the poor baby has a sore neck. big deal, Cuddy got nailed pretty hard in the wrist, and the very next day, he demanded that he was going to play, no matter what. that’s dedication. i say get rid of Matt Capps & Francisco Liriano, and keep both Kubel and Cuddy
do you have any support for such foolish rubbish?
whined about having to play at first base? he’s supposed to be the team franchise, he should have stepped up and played first, no questions asked.
I guess I missed it, because I didn’t see/read/hear anywhere that he made a peep about playing 1st base and that he did in fact step up and play 1st base no questions asked.
could you do us a favor and give us some evidence of this?
I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.
by montanatwinsfan on Aug 27, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
There is no such evidence.
The Organization had always resisted putting Mauer someplace else, for good reason. (And there are NUMEROUS Bill Smith quotes saying they had no desire to move Mauer in the near term.) He’s the best in baseball, and undervalued by his contract, behind the dish. He’s above average (at best), and overpaid, at any other position.
It’s the media that’s driven the “Mauer’s going to move positions” bus. Not the Twins, and not #7. When he was asked, he began practicing for 1st base and manned the position when he was ready. That’s not unrealistic, given he never played a meaningful game there before.
It’s not Mauer’s fault the Organization counted on Justin coming back 100% after 2 straight seasons of playing half the year. It’s not Mauer’s fault they traded Hardy for a bucket of balls and left themselves without a reliable Middle Infielder to start the season, which gutted the infield defense across the board. It’s not Mauer’s fault he had to try to play through injury because there’s no major-league capable backup catcher in the organization.
Of all the underperforming players on the Twins this season, Mauer’s struggles make the MOST sense, given the situation he found himself in at the start of the season. If anything, he was too much a team player. He should’ve stayed away until he knew he was 100%.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 27, 2011 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Nathan played like crap through injury
Why isn’t he getting endless amounts of negativity?
Because everyone knows Tommy John surgery sucks.
But no one knows what “bi-lateral leg weakness” is. And they didn’t do a terribly good job of diagnosing whatever the problem was, beyond the flu that crippled the whole team to start the season.
by Shawn Gillogly on Aug 27, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly...
this whole “Joe Mauer is a panzy/sucks” mentality from people is beyond stupid. It’s just a bunch of dumb fans that don’t know what they’re talking about looking for a reason to hate our best player.
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