Six Things You Didn’t (Want to) Know About the Twins offense

by Bobomojo on Aug 31, 2011 10:35 AM EDT in By the Numbers

1. Even after last night's offensive barrage, Twins batters are hitting a collective 247/306/360. Their 665 OPS ranks second-to-last in the AL, behind only the historically awful Seattle Mariners.

2. What does a 665 OPS look like? Juan Pierre currently has a 668 OPS. Juan. Pierre.

3. The Twins have given 50 or more plate appearances to 18 different players. Only three of those players - Cuddyer, Thome and Kubel - have hit above the league average (as measured by both OPS+ and wRAA).

4. The Twins have combined to post a weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) of .295. That's second worst in the league behind (you guessed it) the Seattle Mariners. But even that doesn't do it justice. Below is a chart of the ten worst team wOBAs in the AL since 2000:

Season	Team	wOBA
2010	Mariners	0.286
2011	Mariners	0.287
2003	Tigers	0.294
*2011*	*Twins*	*0.295*
2002	Tigers	0.296
2008	Athletics	0.307
2001	Devil Rays	0.309
2007	Royals	0.311
2005	Royals	0.312
2004	Royals	0.313

That's some pretty impressive company. The 2010 Mariners lost 101 games, and the 2002 and 2003 Tigers combined to lose 225 games.

5. Now I have to admit: that last chart is a little unfair to the Twins. Fangraphs' wOBA doesn't adjust for league or park, and the 2011 Twins are playing in a pitchers' park at a time when league-wide offense is on the decline. Luckily, we have a different measure - weighted Runs Created (wRC+) - which does have the appropriate adjustments. Here's where this current Twins team ranks among the worst American League offenses of the 21^st Century:

Season	Team	wRC+
2010	Mariners	78
2003	Tigers	78
2011	Mariners	81
2002	Tigers	81
2004	Royals	81
2000	Devil Rays	83
*2011*	*Twins*	84
2007	Royals	84
2007	White Sox	85
2002	Royals	85

6. And, no, it's not fair to chalk up our miserable offense to our pitcher-friendly home park. The Twins are just the second-worst offense in the AL at home (.676 OPS, .300 wOBA). On the road, however, they're the worst-hitting team in the AL (.655 OPS, .290 wOBA).

Well, that was fun. On the bright side, Kansas City blew a late lead last night, meaning the Twins still have a half-game lead on the last-place Royals. In fact, if you believe in the predictive power run differential, we should actually feel lucky to be where we are right now. The Astros have won three straight games, and have improved their run differential by 10 runs in the process. That now leaves your Minnesota Twins with the worst run differential in baseball (-149). Gross.

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Comments

#3 is something I noticed on Sunday

After seeing Luke Hughes had 4 HRs (before his Sunday exploits) I thought “wow, maybe we got a guy with some pop in his bat”. Then I went to the stats and saw he had 200 at bats already, which blew my mind.

The Twins also had 17 players with over 100 at-bats as of Sunday. I looked at some other teams for comparison purposes, and I think Detroit had 12, maybe 13. Even if our players were putting up reasonable performances, the personnel carousel would keep us from being successful this year.

Is it 2012 yet?

by foertsch on Aug 31, 2011 11:17 AM EDT reply actions

2012 may be worse

If they don’t sign guys for the outfield and 1B/DH we may be in for a dreadful season. Look at the article again – the 3 top offensive performers are all free agents.

by DJL44 on Aug 31, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

wRC

Isn’t this a counting stat? If so, when you compared seasons did you project out through the end of September when comparing to previous years?

by DJL44 on Aug 31, 2011 11:27 AM EDT reply actions

I used wRC+

Much like OPS+, this compares a team’s weighted Runs Created to the league average. In effect, our offense has been 16% below the league average (after adjusting for park effects), which would be the 7th worst figure in the AL since 2000.

by Bobomojo on Aug 31, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions

got it

by DJL44 on Aug 31, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

And a lot of these guys can't field either

by Stefa on Aug 31, 2011 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Gleeman

is still convinced that Mauer is having a good year.

by wcooley on Aug 31, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

He's been hitting since returning from the DL

It isn’t a horrible year but it hasn’t been good. His bat isn’t good enough for 1B or DH right now.

by DJL44 on Aug 31, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Notice

Gleeman said good year. Not great, but good as in ok. I agree with that because Joe has shown defensive ability in the outfield and at first. Finally, his batting average has been ok.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew

by Jessy S on Aug 31, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Considering

the contract, the time spent on the DL with a mystery ailment, and the pathetic power numbers, this has been a horrible year for Mauer.

by wcooley on Aug 31, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I don't need stats to know the Twins suck this year.

"We’re all in this boat together. Everybody grab an oar."
-Tom Kelly

by Go Twins! on Aug 31, 2011 11:59 AM EDT reply actions

The stats are just proof as well as a reminder...

So we can look back in years and say, “WOW, they were TERRIBLE in 2011.”

"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series

by WindyCityTwinsFan on Aug 31, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

"Twins batters are hitting a collective 247/306/360"

My California math tells me that their OPS is 666, the number of The Beast!

Steve Goodman lives.

by twinsbrewer on Aug 31, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

It must be a conspiracy

by spanspanspan on Aug 31, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Haha - good catch.

Must be a rounding issue – just double-checked on BaseballReference (http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2011.shtml) and it lists 247/306/360/665. Didn’t even notice.

by Bobomojo on Aug 31, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Is there any good that could come in our situation?

At this point I’m hoping that we will fall to the bottom and recieve the 1st overall pick in the draft next year, along with possibly several supplemental picks if we lose type A or B free agents?

by Iowatwinswin on Aug 31, 2011 12:23 PM EDT reply actions

I think the "good" will be that the organization is forced to rethink some things

by spanspanspan on Aug 31, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions

And they include

Having Bill Smith and Ron Gardenhire on the payroll.

by Jessy S on Aug 31, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

These players have a higher wRC+ than the Twins offense:

Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, Matt Holliday, Curtis Granderson, Lance Berkman, Shane Victorino, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Michael Morse, Paul Konerko, Jose Reyes, Alex Avila, Justin Upton, Jacoby Ellsbury, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Stanton, Alex Gordon, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano, Hunter Pence, Corey Hart, Andrew McCutcheon, Kevin Youkilis, Brian McCann, Ben Zobrist, Nick Swisher, Aramis Ramirez, Josh Hamilton, Casey Kotchman, Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young, Todd Helton, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley, Rickie Weeks, Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz, Howie Kendrick, Matt Joyce, Carlos Quentin, Freddie Freeman, Asdrubal Cabrera, Daniel Murphy, Billy Butler, Victor Martinez, J.J. Hardy, Josh Willingham, Seth Smith, Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Andre Ethier, Jay Bruce, Ian Kinsler, Carlos Santana, Mark Reynolds, Melky Cabrera, Cameron Maybin, Edwin Encarnacion, Brennan Boesch, Adam Jones, Michael Bourn, Peter Bourjos, Yadier Molina, Ryan Roberts, Logan Morrison, Garrett Jones, Yunel Escobar, Carlos Pena, Carlos Lee, Gaby Sanchez, Jeff Francoeur, Mark Trumbo, Miguel Montero, Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, Emilio Bonifacio, Matt Wieters, Dan Uggla, Bobby Abreu, Starlin Castro, Mitch Moreland, Brett Gardner, Torii Hunter, Coco Crisp, Neil Walker, Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Nick Markakis, Jamey Carroll, Danny Espinoza, Colby Rasmus, Alberto Callaspo, Maicer Isturis, Kosuke Fukudome, Jayson Werth, Angel Pagan, Adam Lind, Eric Hosmer, Alfonso Soriano, Dexter Fowler, Hideki Matsui, Chris Young, Drew Stubbs, BJ Upton, David DeJesus, John Buck, Alexei Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Juan Rivera, Justin Turner, Erick Aybar, Ryan Ludwick, James Loney, Martin Prado, Kelly Johnson, Raul Ibanez, Kurt Suzuki, Cliff Pennington, Danny Valencia, Brendan Ryan, Elvis Andrus, Vladimir Guerrero, Jason Bay, Omar Infante, Placido Polanco, and Austin Jackson.

by timprov on Aug 31, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions

Ugh.

These days the endless variations and adjustments to the various equations make the stat numbers unintelligible to me.

by MNPundit on Aug 31, 2011 4:54 PM EDT reply actions

Surviving the World covered that one

by ColossusOfRhode on Aug 31, 2011 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Who cares where they draft?

Judging from past performance, with one of the most inept group of talent evaluators in baseball, drafting first or last, they’d just screw it up anyway. And if drafting that Todd Walker clone who at least one major league team didn’t even have in its top 250 with their first pick this year, a dearth of talent in their farm teams, and signing a Japanese infielder with hard hands, a weak arm, and a gawd-awful swing to a multmillion dollar contract isn’t proof of that, I don’t know what is.

by bobbler on Sep 2, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions