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Saturday Afternoon Hair of the Dog: Slowey, Cuddyer, Liriano & Accentuating the Positives

The Twins are apparently looking to extend Cuddyer, and have recently offered him a two-year, $16 million dollar extension.

Let me tell you what I did today. I nursed a hangover that was partially Twins-based, put down some Chinese food, walked my dog and watched The Adjustment Bureau. And it was good. So there's that. Let's talk about some Twins-related stuff before the they attempt to take down the White Sox in a few hours.

  • Last week I made a bid for Kevin Slowey getting another shot with the Twins. Nothing has changed on that front, after Kevin's five-inning, two-run performance on Friday. Over those five frames he allowed seven hits and a pair of walks while striking out six. If he turns in another good performance in a few days and the Twins don't call him up, it'll be time to start asking a few questions about the organization's intentions.
  • It sounds like the Twins used not trading Michael Cuddyer as a gesture of good will in order to ask him to take a pay cut over the next two years. Joe Christensen has reported that the Twins tried to sign him to a two-year, $16 million extension. Now, as far as I'm concerned there's no doubt that Cuddyer will earn his $10.5 million salary in 2011, especially if you understand market value for how much every win above replacement costs, but is Cuddy worth $8 million over both his age-33 and age-34 season? He'd need to accumulate something like 6 wins above replacement over '12 and '13 to make that a good deal. Considering Cuddyer's best WAR seasons are two 3.0-win seasons (2011, 2006), 2.8 (2009) and 2.5 (2007), are six wins too much to expect over two years at those ages? Probably.
  • Interestingly, but not surprisingly, the Twins were fielding offers on Francisco Liriano prior to last week's trade deadline. Oddly enough the Twins actually valued him quite highly, asking for a very high price in return for the enigmatic southpaw. After the rumors flying around about Denard Span and a relief pitcher, that's good to hear.
  • After that disappointing loss to the South Siders last night, I just wanted to point out a few things that we can be happy about. First, Glen Perkins hasn't allowed an earned run since July 9. What an outstanding season he's had. Second, since Tampa plated three runs in an inning against Phil Dumatrait, Duma's made 11 appearances comprising 11.1 innings and just one earned run. His ERA has dropped from 6.06 to 3.90. Third, even Alex Burnett has gotten into the act, recording a 2.79 ERA in his last ten games, striking out 10 in 9.2 innings. Finally, after going 2-for-10 after returning from the disabled list, Jason Kubel has gone 13-for-40 (.325) in his last ten games, hitting two homers and driving in nine runs with a 7-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

That's all for now, folks. See you for the game!

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Go, Twins!

The other teams could make trouble for us if they win. — Yogi Berra

by Twnzfan on Aug 6, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions  

While I am ready to see Blackburn sit out a start, let's not get all out of whack with kevin Slowey.

6SO and 2 runs through 5, good. 7 hits and two walks through five, ok. 101 pitches through five, not picking up a QS, and exposing the bullpen, not so hot.

Better than Blackburn, but hardly the type of performance that screams, Gardenhire is an idiot, Bill Smith is a baby rapist.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Aug 6, 2011 5:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Like Jesse, the question might be about intentions

But if they really intend to trade him, wouldn’t it be bet to call him up for a couple starts before the waiver deadline to hopefully maximize whatever value he has left?

by spanspanspan on Aug 6, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

Christ. and *better

Some of that hair of the dog sounds good about now.

by spanspanspan on Aug 6, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha, you are totally correct.

My comments have no context in this thread, and so I suppose it appears as if I’m responding to Jesse. I’m not.

For the record I’m on board with eveything he wrote above, including Cuddyer. $8 million for two more years seems a bit expensive for the dimpled wonder.

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Aug 6, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

I bet he can get something like

3 years, $25 million somewhere. Maybe even more.

I don’t think WAR is complete enough to use only it for assigning value. For example, does Cuddy’s presence in the clubhouse help the other guys play better? Does he draw fans? Does he sell merchandise? Things like that.

by spanspanspan on Aug 6, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

What's the estimate cost of 1 WAR?

I’d always heard it was in the $4M-5M range, which means Cuddy would only need to generate 4 WAR over the contract to make it a sound decision.

by foertsch on Aug 6, 2011 5:31 PM EDT reply actions  

I thought it was $2.5 million

a couple years ago. So $3 million or so now.

by spanspanspan on Aug 6, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

fangraphs has Blackburn

at .4 WAR worth $1.9million.

Mauer at .9 and ‘worth’ 4.1 million, so it looks like fangraphs has 2011 WAR value at about 4$million/

I don't know, but I've been told it's hard to run with the weight of gold,
'the other hand, I've heard it said, it's just as hard with the weight of lead.

by montanatwinsfan on Aug 6, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe fan graphs uses $4.5M

And has been pretty much consistent over the past few years.

by Adam Peterson on Aug 6, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

It hasn't been $2.5 million in over 10 years.

The lowest it’s been in the last decade was two winters ago, when it was about $3.4MM/win.

by Jesse on Aug 6, 2011 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last year

COULD have been the year. But Nathan went down almost immediately in spring training… and Morneau went down at the halfway mark. With that pair healthy all year who knows how deep they could’ve gotten. This team is cursed.

by MoonlitKnight on Aug 6, 2011 6:20 PM EDT reply actions  

… and we’d still have Ramos now.

by MoonlitKnight on Aug 6, 2011 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shhh...

…I’m doing it now… :)

by Jesse on Aug 6, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

2009,wasnt that the year cuddy hit 32 hrs?

Im surprised his WAR wasnt higher. What was bautista’s WAR last year?

A-rod's salary? 30 Million, Evan Longoria's? 1M, god i love life as a rays fan

by RaysOfHope on Aug 7, 2011 1:15 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Cuddy loses points for his defense

He has an outstanding arm, but doesn’t have the greatest range.

by Stefa on Aug 7, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Regarding Slowey

Is he near a service time break where he will lose a year toward free agency by sitting in the minors?

by DJL44 on Aug 7, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I doubt it

Most of this year counts as major league service time. He was optioned two weeks ago. Prior to that, he was on the major league DL.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 7, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cots had him at 3 years, 63 days before the season started

And he spent about 115 days on the active roster before being optioned. So he should be into his second Arb. year.

by matthew0211 on Aug 7, 2011 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

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