Kyle Gibson To Delay Tommy John Surgery, Career Six Months

Well, that's what this article should be titled. What Rhett Bollinger actually wrote was "Gibson, Slama to avoid Tommy John surgery," but I've been around too long to believe that. Slama has a muscle strain, but Gibson has a partial UCL tear, and has been put on the Pat Neshek Road To Recovery. He'll rehab until November or so, tear the UCL entirely, and then be six months behind where he would have been.

10 months ago Jon Marthaler 31 comments 1 recs |

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Just have the damn surgery

He’s probably gonna tear completely at some point in his career, why not get it out of the way now?

Hmmm.....needz moar winz

by NorthernStar on Aug 9, 2011 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

This is why he fell in the draft to begin with

It’s also why all the people downgrading him as a prospect due to slipping performance were wrong. He’s a very good pitcher when healthy.

by DJL44 on Aug 9, 2011 11:36 PM EDT reply actions

Elbow

His elbow had nothing to do with his draft fall. He had a bone fracture, which was concerning people, nothing to do with Tommy John susceptibility. The bone fracture was not an issue. Now this is…

"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane

by AdamOnFirst on Aug 10, 2011 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Any arm injury is concerning in a draft

Teams were concerned there would be more to come

by DJL44 on Aug 10, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

They were concerned it was more than a fracture

Teams didn’t trust the medical reports. For those that did, there was no more than the usual concerns that some percentage of pitchers blow out their elbows. That was the concern with Strasburg and others who were drafted ahead of Gibson.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 10, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

yep...

let’s be real; something like 50% of pitchers (might be more than that now) undergo TJ eventually. it’s just the nature of the beast now.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions

That seems a bit high

USA today reported that about 11% of ML pitchers in 2002-03 had had TJ surgery. Not quite 3/team and that seems to hold. On the Twins roster, Liriano, Pavano and Nathan have all had it but I don’t think any of the other pitchers have. In any event, I don’t think it’s anywhere close to half of all pitchers.

by Gunnarthor on Aug 10, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

ML pitchers...

being the key there. And that’s in 2002-03; they’ve been much more frequent in the last 10 years or so.

But by just using “ML pitchers” you’re leaving out TONS of guys that never made it to the show due to surgeries.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Duensing had it college

by missles on Aug 10, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions

pretty sure it wasn't in his elbow either...

by diehardtwinsfan on Aug 10, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not surprised

This is how they play it. For them, surgery is a last resort. Well, the last resort will come sometime next year rather than now. AS you say, delaying his career at least six months.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 9, 2011 11:52 PM EDT reply actions

If I were a cruel person

I might say I hope that if one day a member of the Twins’ medical and/or training staff has a gallstone or some other painful malady, and their doctor’s response is,

“Hmmm, let’s just wait 6 months and see if it gets better all by itself. If not, well, then you may have to have the surgery. If you’re not dead or insane by that time. Oh, and have a nice day!”

The other teams could make trouble for us if they win. — Yogi Berra

by Twnzfan on Aug 10, 2011 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Dear Kyle

Please get a second opinion.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 10, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Dear Kyle

Please don’t get a second opinion if you want to stay on good terms with the Twins
Ask Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey

by twinscrazy_german on Aug 10, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

not to mention Liriano...

they didn’t exactly handle his injury well either. or his rehab (200 innings in his first full year back from TJ, for instance).

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

Good grief

So now we’re blaming the Twins for Liriano pitching like crap b/c he threw 200 innings in 2008 and has stayed healthy since TJ surgery?

by Gunnarthor on Aug 10, 2011 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions

no...

but that is really poor handling of a TJ surgery. they delayed him initially from surgery, and it cost him/them. and then after he had it, they went and had him pitch 200 innings in his first year back; neither seemed like a good course then, and they don’t seem like a good course of action in hindsight either.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

and if you don't think that had at least some trickle down effect, well, I don't know what to tell you...

Liriano complained of a dead arm all of 2009 (after he threw 200 freaking innings in his first year back from TJ surgery!) and was awful all year. so bad that they had to then pitch him in winter ball before 2010 for 50 innings, which helped him get back to normal, but also effected him at the end of last season, when he was clearly gassed, having thrown around 250 innings (winter ball and regular season) on the year.

the twins’ handling of liriano’s arm over the years has been questionable at best.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Trickle down effect

also cause his 2010 season or only the bad stuff?

I mean, really. This blaming the Twins for every issue gets old. Sure they do things wrong, every team does. But Liriano is the one who didn’t keep up with his offseason workouts and conditioning – twice. Maybe he was good in 2010 b/c he worked his butt off in the offseason. And maybe he’s crappy this season b/c he showed up more interested in getting a big contract instead of keeping up with his offseason duties. Maybe that had more impact on his crappy pitching then a surgery over five years ago.

by Gunnarthor on Aug 10, 2011 2:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think you're reading it right

The delay cost him three months, which might have led to other issues. But the biggest issue is all the innings he threw on his return. They are normally very conservative about building up an arm when they get guys out of the draft. They try not to add more than 30% per year to the innings load.

This is based on countless cases where guys overdo it one year and have dead arm the next. Now the first year, you can do 120 innings or so. But if you build slowly up to 200 innings over three years, you have the best chance of keeping the guy healthy and effective. If 2008 had been 120, 2009 could have been an effective 150-160, rather than an ineffective 140.

Having a dead arm in 2009 sent his career on a roller coaster, rather than the steady climb he needed to be consistent. That was entirely caused by going from 0 to 200 innings one year after surgery.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 10, 2011 8:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Thank you cmath....

voice of reason. That is EXACTLY what I’m saying.

It’s just incredibly naive to gloss over that and simply believe the Twins/PR mantra of “he doesn’t work hard in the offseason”.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I got his point,

I just find it ridiculous that we’re arguing that Liriano’s bad 2011 was caused by him pitching too many innings in 2008, (where he was pretty good). Which is also the reason he was bad in 2009 and at the end of 2010. Not much on personal responsibility, are we? I mean, all of his problems were “entirely caused” by pitching 200 innings in 2008? It’s not possible his off season work ethic had something to do with it?

Also, let’s be a bit realistic here. In 08, Liriano’s agent threatened grievances against the Twins for keeping him in the minors. So if they were going to limit him to 120 innings that year they’d have to put him in the pen at AAA for a bit and he and his agent would have had to agree on being shut down sometime during the season. And fans would’ve loved not seeing him pitch for the major league club. Or, I suppose they could’ve let him pitch for the ML club for a few weeks before shutting him down, when he was pitching very well. How much service time to you want the Twins to throw away on Liriano?

by Gunnarthor on Aug 10, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Every year of pitching affects the next year

His ineffective and low-inning 2009 led to Winter Ball. Winter Ball put him in line for a break-out 2010. But he tired down the stretch, as the innings load took its toll (he pitched a total of 230 innings in 2010 between Winter Ball and the MLB). In essence, he went from 140 to 230 innings from 2009 to 2010, a jump of 58%—well into the danger zone.

Not surprisingly, he’s had bouts of dead arm this year, manifested in some games where he gets hit around and others when he just can’t control his fastball. Part of that was the jump in innings last year. Part of it was he tried to rest all offseason and came into camp out of shape. Whatever the reason, it’s directly related to pitching too many innings in 2010 relative to 2009. 2009 was directly related to pitching too many innings in 2008 relative to 2007. The root cause of the inconsistency was 200 innings in 2008 after no innings in 2007.

There’s ways of managing innings that they use on prospects, including skipping starts and moving them into the bullpen later in the year. That’s what they should have done in 2008.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Aug 10, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

yep...

exactly. and i really think he’s hurt right now, because of that innings jump. Not only his velocity down 2 MPH this year, but control is an even bigger indication of injury than velocity (just ask Scott baker the last few weeks and in 2010).

No one’s saying it’s “all” on the Twins; that’s a strawman argument. But they’ve handled him horribly and it’s AT LEAST partially to blame. You jump a guy from 136 innings to 250 in one year and you better not expect good results.

by DJSkillz on Aug 10, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Bad news on Gibson

So this pushes him back to Sept, 2013?

Also, no article to link to so no fanshot, but the Twitter is saying Morneau texted Bill Smith asking to face Lester tomorrow, and Smith responded: see you in Detroit.

by archie2227 on Aug 10, 2011 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

So Kyle doesn't have a say in this?

Surgery is big. Surgery is scary. Surgery does something irreparable to your body and it take at least 6 months to recover from. Perhaps Kyle is not interested in jumping into surgery right away because he doesn’t want to mess with it? He would like to try and get himself healed without going under the knife.

I know someone mentioned it before, but just because the media reports he’s waiting doesn’t mean the Twins medical staff advised it. Maybe they gave him two options and he picked the one he wants to deal with.

We know that it’s likely he will have Tommy John sooner than later, but we’re not the ones going under the knife and giving up our lives to rehab.

by Anjemon on Aug 10, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Yeah

I think this is about right. OTB wrote that rest/rehab works on slightly less than half of the pitchers who have UCL tears (most notably the Angels Santana) so it seems smart to try that first. I think there seems to be an over confidence in TJ surgery by people who think that when the player gets the surgery he should be as good (or better) as before. And when TJ pitchers struggle when they came back, it’s something the team did wrong …

Hopefully, Gibson can be like Santana and avoid TJ surgery. Probably not, but it doesn’t seem a bad idea to try that before surgery.

by Gunnarthor on Aug 10, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions