Draft Pick Compensation Watch: Cuddyer Currently Type A, Kubel Type B

by Jesse on Sep 2, 2011 12:15 PM EDT in News

Yesterday afternoon, DJSkillz posted his thoughts on Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, in terms of their free agent designation. In some detail he went over what it would take for each player to be a Type A or Type B guy and the resulting fallout for the Twins. You can follow the link or scroll down the front page to read the post in full.

This morning, MLB Trade Rumors posted their latest reverse-engineered Elias Rankings. With Cuddyer playing one more game as an outfielder than a first baseman, his rankings took a small jump upward. Among potential free agent outfielders, he ranks second among four who project to be Type As.

Name	Team	Type	Score	Pos
Nick Swisher	NYY	A	87.945	OF
Michael Cuddyer	MIN	A	78.904	OF
Josh Willingham	OAK	A	76.712	OF
Carlos Beltran	SFG	A	76.512	OF

With Luke Hughes available to play first base and the Twins looking to keep the physical toll on Joe Mauer as low as possible, there are two players who can field the position in the absence of Justin Morneau. Kubel will continue to DH, while Rene Tosoni and Ben Revere will get a lot of time in left and center field respectively. It's certainly no guarantee with the defensive positioning totals so close for Cuddyer between outfield and first base (where he'd slip to a Type B), but those are the reasons I think Gardy will play him in right field more often than not the rest of the way.

Kubel, meanwhile, is the top-ranked free agent outfielder with projected Type B status.

Name	Team	Type	Score	Pos
Jason Kubel	MIN	B	69.863	OF
Raul Ibanez	PHI	B	69.070	OF
David DeJesus	OAK	B	64.932	OF
Ryan Ludwick	PIT	B	62.093	OF

Kubel isn't necessarily on the cusp of being a Type A (the American League cutoff is somewhere between Kevin Youkilis, 75.294 as a B, and Delmon Young, 76.164 as an A), but he's not so far away that a very good month of September couldn't change something.

Neither Cuddyer nor Kubel would be considered a superstar, which means that finishing the season as a Type A free agent might actually help the Twins keep them around - it's unlikely that a team surrenders a first round draft pick for Type As who aren't superstars. But one or both of them finish as a Type B player, and they choose to test the market, it's very likely we'll be looking at an extra draft pick or two next June.

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The rankings are completely hosed up

If Delmon Young rates draft pick compensation.

by DJL44 on Sep 2, 2011 12:26 PM EDT reply actions

Matt Capps is a Type A free agent

so they must be wrong.

by jacobglanz on Sep 2, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Rankings are made up of two years worth of data

Which is why Capps and Delmon are still so high – they had good years last year and the suckitude of this year hasn’t been enough to bring them down.

by missles on Sep 2, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions

The Data

Depends more on playing time than production. If you compile enough plate apearances, you move up. With Kubel and Cuddyer most likely playing regularly and Cuddyer staying in the outfield, most likely both will be Type A FAs. Kubel stands to gain a notch when Youkilis logs more games at third base than first base.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 2, 2011 1:01 PM EDT reply actions

Except

Tonight Mauer will be catching, Cuddyer will be at first, and Kubel will be in riight. Let’s face it, the Twins had an off day yesterday so you can pretty much pencil Mauer as being behind the plate. The key is giving both Cuddyer and Kubel some time in the outfield, but with positions held by Tosoni and Revere, only one can play outfield at a time unless if Tosoni or Revere are benched.

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by Jessy S on Sep 2, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions

You know this?

Mauer hasn’t caught since before he hurt his neck. Kubel could very likely be the DH with Cuddyer in right or perhaps Morneau will be ready to play 1B. Gardy has options, Hughes has played a fair amount at first and Plouffe logged some innings there as well. As for Tosoni playing, I don’t think that is a high priority—there’s been some good and some bad, but this Rene’s upside looks to be backup outfielder.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 2, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Then a reliever should never be "type A"

Their innings pitched totals are awful. Grouping relievers as if they are a different position than a starting pitcher is stupid.

by DJL44 on Sep 2, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

The groupings are dumb anyway

What’s the point of grouping positions if they assign weighted values within the grouping? They obviously do based on
Cuddyer’s screwy results.

by archie2227 on Sep 2, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

agree...

as i mentioned in my initial post on this, that doesn’t make any kind of sense to me on the positional stuff with Cuddy. He’s in the same “group” either way; so his games at 1b/OF shouldn’t effect his status, or any of these other guys’ either.

by DJSkillz on Sep 3, 2011 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Would be nice to have the MLB/Elias official process and rules for this...

It would be nice if MLB provided more transparency for this process, as well as for the waiver process. The Players Association would never go for that, however.

by matthew0211 on Sep 2, 2011 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, it appears to be a goofy system.

It seems that there are subgroups within the groups. If you are a DH, you are compared with DHs and if you are a 1B, you are compared with other 1B. Both Kevin Youkilis and Cuddyer have almost exactly split their time between their top two positions and their ranking change dramatically depending on where they’ve made more starts.

by Alexi Casilla All-Star on Sep 2, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Good stuff Jesse, and thanks for essentially providing the update...

my one quibble would be with your view that teams may not sign Cuddy or Kubel as Type A’s. I really think they will, in both cases, given the market. I’d say Beltran will be the most sought after if both Kubel and Cuddyer are Type A’s, given that he’s due no compensation due to his contract clause. But honestly, after Beltran, I think Kubel and Cuddyer are the top OF options on the entire market, given their ages (especially in Kubel’s case) and production. Plus Cuddyer is helped by being a RH power bat, which teams always seem to want. Look at Jayson Werth’s contract last year.

I really would not sweat teams avoiding them as Type A’s at all. It only takes 1.

by DJSkillz on Sep 3, 2011 2:03 AM EDT reply actions

Type "A" is no obstacle for a multiyear contract

If a team wants a player for multiple years then the Type A status never matters. It is when it comes to players who can’t get a multiyear deal where having that draft pick attached makes it really difficult to get signed.

by DJL44 on Sep 3, 2011 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

ya, that's my take as well...

I’d offer about 95% of my Type A/Type B FA’s arbitration. Because worst case you have a guy on a 1-year, contract year contract (again) and wanting to prove he should get multiple years on his next deal. And a lot of those guys are usually tradeable on such 1-year contracts as well, if need be (look at Rafael Soriano a couple of years ago).

by DJSkillz on Sep 3, 2011 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions