Offseason Bargain Shopping: David DeJesus
by Steve Adams on Sep 20, 2011 9:01 AM EDT
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The Twins' season is almost officially over. If you've been following this season, you know it's been over for awhile though, and if you're anything like me, you waste inordinate amounts of time playing GM in your head and thinking about ways that your beloved franchise can turn around. There's clearly not a silver bullet to turn the Twins into contenders (aside from healthy seasons from Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Denard Span), and given the number of issues they're going to have and pieces they could lose (Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel -- I'm looking at you), it stands to reason that they're going to need to be doing some bargain hunting.
One name the Twins should look into, even if one of Cuddyer or Kubel comes back, is a familiar name from his six seasons in Kansas City: David Dejesus. More after the jump.
The Twins have said they'd like to bring one of Cuddyer or Kubel back to the team, but it's far from a sure thing that either will be back, and it's tough to imagine both returning. With Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN recently tweeting that he's getting the vibe that Cuddyer may now "need some convincing" to return, it's fair to say there will probably be some changes in the outfield next season.
David DeJesus is in the midst of his worst season as a Major Leaguer, so he probably doesn't sound like an ideal candidate for a Twins' offseason target (though he does sound like he'd fit right into the 2011 Twins mold) He's batting .237/.322/.369 -- a far cry from the .289/.360/.427 line he'd posted in his career until being traded to the Athletics last offseason. A few things stand out for DeJesus though:
- Patience. DeJesus is still walking in 9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .322 OBP in a "down season." That walk rate trails only Jim Thome (14.5%), Joe Mauer (9.6%), and Denard Span (9.2%) for 2011 Twins, and the OBP would sadly rank sixth on the club.
- Luck. DeJesus' BABIP this season is .271, but he entered this season with a career mark of .322. He's putting the ball in the air slightly more (specifically popping up to the infield), but both his fly balls and ground balls have below-average BABIPs tacked onto them, suggesting he's had his share of bad luck this season and a rebound in terms of average (and therefore OBP, thanks to a consistent walk-rate) could be on the horizon.
- Defense. DeJesus has long been praised a steady defender, something which the Twins haven't had in the form of Kubel and Cuddyer. If you're a fan of UZR, he's got a +33.4 mark for his career (5.2 UZR/150) including a +1.2 this season (3.1 UZR/150). If not, he's got a solid reputation from scouts that should be enough to at least cement that he's an improvement over the incumbents (Kubel/Cuddyer).
- Price. DeJesus is earning $6M this year, and with the season he's had, he's not likely to even match that amount on a one-year deal. Some club may guarantee him that, but the likely event for DeJesus is a one-year deal with a reduced base salary and some incentives based on performance and playing time.
DeJesus has never been a big home run hitter, so there's not much need to worry about the spacious confines of Target Field limiting his homer total. He may not want to sign in another pitcher-friendly park, hoping that a hitter-friendly atmosphere might help him rebuild his stock and earn a multiyear deal. If that's the case, the Twins could always overpay a little to try to lure him here and still come in under his 2011 base.
You'd have to think the Twins at least stand a chance of luring him in though, due to the familiarity of the AL Central and the fact that a 2011 contender may not want to hand over the job to someone coming off a down year. The Twins, however, can look at DeJesus as a potential upgrade on defense who brings a solid OBP to the table and can fill in is a stopgap in right field while Joe Benson develops more at Triple-A. They present the unique situation of a club that's got some rebuilding to do -- a typical setting for veterans to boost their stock -- but could also contend due to a weak division and the possibility that their stars return to health. DeJesus would know that it's likely the Twins contend, or he gets traded to a contender -- not the worst situation to be in.
Even if Kubel or Cuddyer is re-signed, they could see significant time at DH with DeJesus shoring up an outfield defense that seems likely to include Denard Span (health-permitting... knock on wood) and Ben Revere (organization seems to love him). If both Revere and Benson begin the season in the minors, adding a player of DeJesus' type becomes even more critical.
If the Twins experience another desolate season and DeJesus does indeed rebound, they've got themselves a nice trade chip come July. And, even if he repeats a year like 2011, that's not a bad ROI for the likely price tag that will come along with him. His defense and OBP skills alone will make him a 1.5-2.0 WAR player, which should be well worth the minimal investment he'd require based on 2011's off-year.
Steve Adams also writes for MLBTradeRumors.com, MLB.com Fantasy Baseball, and contributes at 612Sports.net. You can follow him on Twitter: @Adams_Steve
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DeJesus has long been a favorite of mine
A very well-rounded baseball player, those guys tend to be underrated. I’d love to have him on next year’s team.
My wish list
AJ Pierzynski, Carlos Zambrano, and Nyjer Morgan. And any other son-of-bitch who can light a fire under this listless team’s ass.
I can get on board with this.
Makeup is important, so maybe Zambrano isn’t the right guy, but there are players out there who are vocal and who lead. Especially if Cuddyer goes, especially with Morneau’s status a bit of a question mark, especially with Mauer not being a vocal leader, this team could use someone to rally behind.
Energy would be nice...
But not at the expense of a hot-head like Zambrano or Morgan. Zambrano’s performance has also fallen off a cliff, and there’s some signs that his regression is more permanent. His fastball velocity has plummeted over 2mph over the past few years while his line drive rate has risen steadily in a direct correlation. There’s a difference between being a sparkplug and a genuine, loud malcontent, and Zambrano is a good example of that.
Morgan’s ego is off the charts, and his consistent inability to hit left-handed pitching is a strike against him. Denard Span, when healthy, is a superior version of Morgan.
If the Twins want to add fire to the team, I’m all for it, but it should be in the right context. That said, however, it seems like they consistently work to avoid those types of players — as evidenced by trading Garza, Hudson’s problems with the organization, etc. They build around players like Mauer and Morneau and seem like they want to cultivate a certain demeanor in the clubhouse. I personally thought Hudson’s character and fire were a breath of fresh air, but it doesn’t seem like something the Twins have much interest in.
I wouldn’t mind seeing AJ back, but I think that’d be a tough sell for a lot of fans.
by Steve Adams on Sep 20, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: AJ
He’s signed through next year in Chicago, and considering that the Twins and Palehose haven’t completed a trade together in what, 25 years? We won’t be seeing AJ here, so don’t worry about upsetting any fans.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Sep 20, 2011 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Theoretically,
I could see the logic behind a trade. Flowers posted big minor league numbers and hit well in the Majors prior to his current extended slump. The Twins could use a real insurance plan for Mauer and someone to plug in at catcher when Joe DHs or plays first base, and AJ is a competent offensive catcher who’s both durable and signed cheaply in 2012.
I agree it won’t happen, I was more speaking hypothetically in regards to an AJ acquisition anyhow.
by Steve Adams on Sep 20, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you think they'd spend $6MM on a backup catcher?
That 2-year contract AJ signed this off-season was ridiculously back-loaded….I guess I don’t see them spending that much on a bench spot if they really believe that Mauer will be back as a full-time catcher as they have been saying. I doubt we’d even see them spend half that much, IMHO, but I’d gladly be proven wrong.
I agree that we need an actual MLB catcher to back-up Mauer, but even hypothetically, I can’t imagine AJ as a feasible option.
"...and we'll see ya tomorrow night!" - Jack Buck, Game 6, 1991 World Series
by WindyCityTwinsFan on Sep 20, 2011 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point
Without looking at his contract I knew it was 2/8 and just assumed 4 each year. Forgot they back-loaded that one. That definitely makes it more unlikely, even from a hypothetical standpoint, unless the Sox kick in cash.
Morgan
Morgan is batshit crazy. And while I can’t measure this statistically, I think the Twins could use a little batshit crazy right now. The 2012 version of Dan Gladden.
This makes me sound like Souhan, but I don’t care. Get some life!
Crazy in a bad way
This is the same guy who’s instigated fights, flipped off the visiting crowd as he was dragged off the field from a fight in Florida, and calls out other players on Twitter to try to stir up trouble. He’s a loose cannon who’s liable to cause a brawl or get both he and his teammates thrown at.
Again, I’d like some fire and energy added, but I don’t want the Twins to add it just for the sake of adding it. Morgan is essentially Denard Span with a platoon split and less plate discipline.
no thank you on any of the 3
we need some fire but not from a clubhouse cancer
first-worst-first?
by holymackerel on Sep 20, 2011 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I've have a similar thought but with Grady Sizemore
In order for this to happen Cleveland would have to decline his option (a very real possiblity with all the arb eligible players they have), and he would have to want to come here and not play CF. He might be cheap 1 year 6/7 million, it would give him an opportunity to reestablish himself for another contract. Throwing another injury prone player on to this roster might be idiotic, but the Twins need to take some risk next year to bridge the gap that of talent they are lacking.
I would love to see Dejesus in a Twins uniform
…but I doubt this move would have any major impact on a club that has so many holes and question marks. I also have little faith in the front office to make any smart moves. The only move I can see to bring a pennant back to Minnesota is Roy Hobbs, but sadly his playing days may be over.
You, sir, are a mouthful.
by Att. Bob Loblaw on Sep 20, 2011 10:59 AM EDT reply actions
I'll take .500
Having a .500 ballclub instead of a doormat is a step in the right direction.
I'd be ecstatic to see DeJesus
Instead of Jason Repko flail and miss as often as he does, I’m sorry but seeing Repko and Tolbert in our lineup together at any point makes me furious. I get Gardenhire’s “get after it” attitude but sometimes enough is enough, there’s a good reason our run differential is as piss-poor as it is.
JIM JAMS BUSINESS IS MASHING TATERS, AND BUSINESS IS GOOD!!!
by MashinTaters on Sep 20, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Repko's just completely pointless...
all of Revere/Benson/Tosoni/Martin/Dinkelman can provide what he does (if not more) for $200,000 less or so. Waste of a roster spot.
i don't think they would pay DDJ
to be the fourth outfielder. He would be replacing Cuddyer, Kubel or Span, with Revere/Benson/Tosoni/Dinkelman as the 4.
I really doubt he would be 4th
If anything, Revere would be the 4th outfielder, not DeJesus.
FIRE DAN EDWARDS!!!
Like everyone else, I've always liked DeJesus, too.
And having a guy like him next season would allow the Twins to do some different things with their outfield, since he can play all three positions. He’d also make Cuddyer a better fit than Kubel, since DeJesus historically likes RHP and has a few more issues versus LHP.
As long as picking up a player like DeJesus would be just a part of the off-season blueprint, and not the biggest move the team makes, then I’d be all for it.
Right
DeJesus is a nice piece who can be sold for prospects mid-season if the other moves the Twins make don’t work out, but that’s under the assumption that there ARE other moves. I don’t think that after this disaster of a season, the Twins will be content to add one veteran like DDJ and call it an offseason. One of the things I like about him is that he’s cheap enough to allow the team to make other moves. while still providing a solid upgrade.
An OF defense of Revere, Span, and DeJesus would actually be a big strength. I’d love to see Baker’s numbers with that outfield behind him.
by Steve Adams on Sep 20, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
or an OF of Span, DeJesus and Benson...
with Kubel at DH and Revere as the 4th OF’er (Repko role). That’d be a very strong group, and Kubel/DeJesus would cost something like $13M combined for 2012 probably. Then you could take some of the other money and use it on a SS/2b and a REAL backup C (not one that can’t outhit you and me). And still have parts left over to try to trade for an ace either in the offseason or at next year’s deadline.
C-Mauer
1b-Morneau (Parmelee ready if Morneau can’t go; not ideal, but what can we do?)
2b-FA or small trade (Aaron Hill on a bounceback?)
SS-Casilla
3b-Valencia/Plouffe battle
RF-Benson
CF-Span
LF-DeJesus
DH-Kubel
Bench: Backup C-Ramon Hernandez or Russell Martin, Backup OF-Revere, Backup INF: Plouffe/Yoshi, Backup thump; new RH platoon bat in kind of a Thome role, but righty.
Liriano (will bounce back to 2010 levels; innings; has had a dead arm all this season)
Baker
Veteran FA on a 1-year deal (take your pick; Bedard?)
Slowey
Pavano
Pen: Nathan (just reality), Perkins, Mijares (similar to Liriano; should bounce back; been hurt all year), Duensing, RH reliever via trade of Blackburn to an NL club, Swarzak, veteran FA on a 2 year deal.
Hendriks/Wimmers/Waldrop/Gutierrez/Guerra/Burnett/Parmelee waiting in the wings for help.
I think it's a bit of a stretch...
…to assume both Benson and Revere begin 2012 in the Majors. Realistically, both could use time at Triple-A to develop some more. Revere right now is basically Carlos Gomez with less power, and Benson has yet to even appear at Triple-A.
As for Hernandez/Martin, I’d like to see it, but both can land a starting gig on free agency somewhere following the season they’ve had. Catcher will be a really tough position to fill, but I might tackle my thoughts on that in another post.
I think betting on a Liriano and Mijares bounceback is a lot to assume, same with Hill. I’d actually seriously consider non-tendering Mijares.
by Steve Adams on Sep 20, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a really lefthanded outfield
And there’s nobody to backup Morneau. That’s why Cuddyer is such a good fit.
for me cost is the problem with Cuddy...
plus giving up getting 2 top picks, and his age. I’d rather have Kubel and sign a RH bat. Benson can hit lefties (I’m fine with him learning the ropes next year) and Span hits lefties as well as righties.
As for Hernandez/Martin, I think they could be sold on 80-100 games playing time, with Mauer playing a lot of 3b, 1b, and DH on days he doesn’t catch.
I'd make him some offers
If Justin Morneau can only be a DH, and Cuddy re-signs (more likely than Kubel re-signing), deJesus would be a good corner outfielder with Cuddy becoming the full-time 1B.
Needs
I don’t think you can discuss who they should target without a few assumptions about who fits where next year. My assumptions include that Mourneau will be the primary DH next year, and that Mauer will play as much first as catcher. I also assume that at least one of Kubel/Cuddyer will be back.
That means need #1 is a catcher who can contribute something to the offense (gee maybe someone like Wilson Ramos). Maybe that’s Pierzynski. I wouldn’t object.
Need #2 is an ace. But they aren’t going to get one.
Need #3 is bullpen. Perhaps Oliveros is going to be the main upgrade there, but I think they will want another veteran. Don’t know who.
Need #4 for me is still middle infield. Unfortunately, I think the organization will stick to Nishi/Plouffe/Casilla, but I’d like to see a solid defender who can hit in the two hole (gee, maybe someone like Orlando Hudson) or with a little pop (gee maybe someone like JJ Hardy). I don’t know who would actually be a good option here.
After that comes outfield, where Revere, Span and Kubel/Cuddyer are going to be the regulars. I think they can find a fourth outfielder among Repko, Tosoni, Benson, Dinkelman, etc.
Don't count on Kubel or Cuddyer returning
I really doubt Kubel will come back and Cuddyer is more likely but not a cinch.
I'd still bet on one
But if neither returns, then I have no problem with pursuing DDJ, and would move outfield up to #3.
I think Hernadez or Martin is a must
they will catch a decent amount and get some abs as DH, Mauer moves around serving as catcher/dh/1b maybe 3rd. Dejesus depends on who comes back I dont really think Cuddyer or Kubel will be back and then Dejesus is a nice fill in but I think they will bring in another OF if one of them is back. They are sold on Revere starting and really to contend next year we are gonna need some rookies making the minimum, starting, and succeeding. Starting pitcher is still the biggest need and where the assets need to be focused.
first-worst-first?
Just can't see Hernandez or Martin
Both players can go somewhere and play 120+ games with the seasons they’ve had. That’s more time than they’ll get here. Martin really wants to remain in New York, and they’ve got Montero and Romine but might prefer to keep Martin around and ease Montero in, splitting time at DH and catcher. Most scouts don’t view him as a catcher long-term anyhow.
Hernandez is getting old for a catcher
He hasn’t caught 120 games since 2008 and he’s turning 36.
I don't like Revere as anything more than a 4th OF'er right now...
much more open to Benson starting than him.
As for Martin, the nice thing about him is he’s very versatile, so he could also play 3b, like Mauer.
Or ever
I don’t get the Revere love… Even if that BA improves he’s not much more than a 4th OF…
by diehardtwinsfan on Sep 20, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
He can be a decent starting outfielder
He’s carrying almost an 18 UZR/150 right now (combined across the three outfield spots; it’s slightly higher in center). Sample size is of course an issue, but if he could keep that up, he’d be similar in value defensively to Carlos Gomez, who was an elite center fielder. If his batting average gets up around .300, that would (given his current walk rate) give him about a .350 OBP, which combined with elite defense and lots of steals is valuable even if he provides no power at all.
If he ends up struggling to make a league average OBP (like he has so far), then you have a decision to make on whether his glove is worth sacrificing that much offense.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
As a Tiger fan (I come in peace)...
I would absolutely detest DeJesus going to the Twins for the simple fact that he absolutely KILLS the Tigers – .318/..393/.476 lifetime splits in 375 at bats. Just went 5 for 12 (3 run HR in 1st game) in the last 4 gamer in Oakland
I already have nightmares of Span running wild on the bases (when healthy) every time we play you guys, last thing I need is DeJesus added to that mix.
thanks for the info...
another reason to sign him.
:)
Agreed
If you don’t like how DeJesus plays against you, we’ll take him off your hands.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
Champagne SuperTolbert Saves the day!!!
Wow, Span really does like playing Detroit.
.353/.420/.463 in 218 AB.
Who else kills the Tigers? Maybe we can make an entire Tiger-killing roster.
by spanspanspan on Sep 20, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
we will win this division next year...
nevermind the reactionary, over the top crap from people after a historically injury/bad luck-filled year. Our roster, when healthy, is still the most talented in this division.
With the possible exception of pitching.
I was mostly happy with our lineup going into the year, with the possible exception of our bench and the Casilla/Nishioka experiment.
by spanspanspan on Sep 20, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
even pitching...
maybe I’m just higher on some of our guys than others, but I still think we have the best rotation in the division (top to bottom) heading into next year. I expect Liriano to rebound and Slowey to pitch better than he has.
Liriano/Baker at the top is still pretty good (at least against the rest of our division), and Slowey/Pavano/one other is not that bad at the 3/4/5.
The key is tweaking the bullpen but even that shouldn’t be that difficult:
Nathan should be “good” Nathan all year next year and I think we all expect him back at a reduced rate. I think he ends up signing for 2-3 years and retires as a Twin.
Perkins is very good.
Duensing will help in the bullpen in a big way.
Swarzak looks ready to step up.
Mijares should rebound (diminished velocity/control points to injury this year, just like Liriano)
One reliever should be acquired via a small trade of Blackburn to an NL club.
Which leaves just one spot to fill via FA or from within (Oliveros, Waldrop, Burnett, etc.)
Not too shabby IMO.
I'm not too worried about the lineup
Assuming Span is ok and Morneau can hit like he used to at DH. I’m happy to see Parmelee and Dinkelman having some success right now. It looks like we have some good guys close to being ready, able to fill positions on the cheap.
by spanspanspan on Sep 20, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, get used to "Chris Parmalee, Professional Hitter."
I don’t know about Dinkelman’s defense, but as a 5th OF/2B, he’s a useful fit as well. With Revere and Span there is no need for a backup CF.
Plan D for Dinkelman
He’s the kind of player that should never be on an opening day roster but if you run low of bench players in July won’t embarrass you.
I don't even know if I'd go that far...
Dinkelman’s a 27-year-old (28 this offseason) without a true position who’s hit .255/.327/.353 in over 1100 plate appearances with Rochester. His small sample of success right now might have people thinking he could have a role with this club in the future, but his numbers at Triple-A are even worse than Tolbert’s in a similar sample size.
by Steve Adams on Sep 21, 2011 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Diamond has a shot to replace Mijares
He has that “change of pace” stuff that might translate well to the bullpen. Probably more useful than a hard throwing righty who can’t find the strike zone (Bullock, Hoey.)
Normally I'd fight you tooth and nail on this
But having 1 erratic almost #1 in Liriano a decent possible #2 in Baker and about a dozen #4-5 guys in Pavano/Blackburn/Duensing/Slowey and the rest that we called up can still win a division as we did last year.
JIM JAMS BUSINESS IS MASHING TATERS, AND BUSINESS IS GOOD!!!
by MashinTaters on Sep 21, 2011 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
It’s really impossible to predict anything for next year based on this year’s team. Anything that could of went wrong did. I think the Twins will fix a lot of the problems just by being healthy and I can pretty much guarantee they will play better defense next year. The coaching staff will make sure of that. I think we have a solid pitching staff when they perform well (we saw that in June). Plus there is that fact that they are going to have probably the worse season in Twins history this year, especially when you consider the expectations, I think the whole team bounces back and plays well next year.
"Somebody once asked me if I ever went up to the plate trying to hit a home run. I said, 'Sure, every time." --Mickey Mantle
by ilovethetwins on Sep 21, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic
If Mauer and Morneau can’t scuba dive and underwater-weld the giant hole in the boat, DeJesus won’t make much difference. I think the chances of him having a notable season next year with the Twins are about as great as Oswaldo Arcia’s. At any rate, oufield is the least of my concern with this team; even without Cuddyer and Kubel (they’re horrible defensively!!! sarcasm, a little bit.)
Hey....
we could all hope for a Albert Pujols-like breakout ST from Arcia, right?
:)
hahahahaha
well played. yet another reason to sign him; so that we can use that often.
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