Ben Revere's Twins Rookie Stolen Base Record

by Jesse on Sep 21, 2011 12:15 PM EDT in News

Ben Revere hasn't made believers out of everyone quite yet, but if there's one thing you can't deny about him it's that he's fast. His speed makes him an exciting player, and he's one of the few good reasons to keep watching Twins games as we wind down the season. As his best asset, his speed not only helps him in the field (if you've gone, or are going, to any games against the Mariners this series be sure to pick up a program, as I've written about Revere's penchant for making long-range plays more often than the best center fielders in baseball this season), but it obviously helps him on the bases, too.

On Monday against the Yankees, Revere stole bases 31 and 32 on the season. That 32nd base broke the previous record of 31, set by a 21-year old Luis Rivas in 2001. Last night, Revere stole his 33rd base.

Just as impressive as his 33 steals is how efficient he's been. This year his 33-for-42 (78.6%) success rate not only bests Rivas' '01 campaign (73.8%), it's better than the current league leader in stolen bases, Brett Gardner (45 steals, 77.6% success rate).

Over the coming years, if Revere can take a few more walks and hit closer to .300, he'll not only continue to draw comparisons to Juan Pierre for his skill set, but it's likely that he'll be among the league leaders in stolen bases through his 20s.

In the program for the Mariners series, I drew up a chart that illustrated how Revere stacked up against baseball's best center fielders in terms of making catches outside of the average center fielder's defensive zone. For today, I'll leave you with a similar list, illustrating how Revere stacks up against baseball's nine most prolific thieves in 2011.

Name	SB	CS	SB %
Michael Bourn	56	12	82.4
Brett Gardner	45	13	77.6
Coco Crisp	42	9	82.4
Matt Kemp	40	11	78.4
Ichiro Suzuki	40	7	85.1
Emilio Bonifacio	38	10	79.2
Drew Stubbs	38	9	80.9
Jacoby Ellsbury	37	14	72.5
Jose Reyes	36	11	76.6
Ben Revere	33	9	78.6

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Comments

I love Ben Revere.

He’s exciting, he makes great plays. Okay so he has a bad arm and I’m not sure how you make that stronger but if he was playing left field I don’t think that that would be such an issue since most people would score on a ball to left field if they were is scoring position. He doesn’t get on base enough to be a lead-off player but he wouldn’t be if Span was healthy anyway. I also think he will get better at that the more he plays. Also speed at the back of the lineup wouldn’t be a bad thing.

"Somebody once asked me if I ever went up to the plate trying to hit a home run. I said, 'Sure, every time." --Mickey Mantle

by ilovethetwins on Sep 21, 2011 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

I think he'd make an excellent #9 hitter and LF starter next year.

He has holes in his game, but he’s an inexpensive player with a skillset that has a place on an MLB roster. We’re better off investing in pitching and infield help.

by foertsch on Sep 21, 2011 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

That list.

I like it. And I generally agree with both above comments. He seems like someone who, in the offseason, could (and would) put in the time to work on his plate discipline and shore up the flaws in his arm.

Is he ever going to be another Denard Span? Probably not. But he’s a good guy (so it seems) who’s cheap for the Twins, energetic on the field, and is willing to work for Gardy. Why not see if he can make that step to being the everyday LF next year?

by MNWildcat on Sep 21, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

OPS doesn't capture Revere's "offense"

typically OPS is a great stat. But the slugging percentage component is really just a “total bases” from hits component. But how many times does Revere get on base and promptly steal second? That is not factored into “total bases”..because it doesn’t come from a “hit”…but it has the effect of increasing offensive “production”…kind of like increasing slugging percentage.

I think Revere needs some additional patience and needs to draw more walks to be a great leadoff hitter. But at the same time, he gets into scoring position at a much higher rate than many players with .330 or higher OBP’s. We don’t measure this stat: How often…per plate appearance, does your leadoff hitter get into scoring postion with less than 2 outs? Revere has been doing this at a very high rate over the last 30 games or so.

What do people want out of Revere as a leadoff hitter? Right now, his OBP is about .310…suppose his OBP is only .320 next year, but he steals 60 plus bases at a 75% success rate? If that happens he would likely score more runs than Span, if Span had a .360 OBP….a lot would depend on hitters behind the leadoff hitter…but all other things equal, Revere would be in scoring position, with less than 2 outs at as high a rate as the best lead off hitters. Not sure how to measure that..but it is one bright spot about his performance. If he hits a little better and has an OBP of .330 …or higher…than he could score as many runs as any of the best leadoff hitters ….just my opinion

by NorthDakotaTwinsFan on Sep 21, 2011 2:12 PM EDT reply actions

Adjusted OPS

I did the math to see just how factoring in stolen bases (and caught stealing) would affect Revere’s OPS (assuming I did the math right). Giving him an extra total base for a steal but subtracting a hit for being caught, he ends up with a .290 OBP (ouch) and a .357 SLG. The nearly 60-point increase in slugging puts his adjusted OPS at .657, although I’d point out that a double is actually more valuable than a single and steal, because it advances the runners farther – after all, Revere is only guaranteed to be the leadoff man once a game.

I’m going to disagree with you about Revere at .320 being better leading off than Span at .360. Sure it’s nice to have a guy at second with no outs, but it’s the “no outs” part that’s more important than the “second base” part, and Span avoids the out far better than Revere. Also, Revere probably isn’t more likely to get to second than Span is – Span steals a pretty decent number of bases himself, and he’s more likely to get an extra-base hit than Revere.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 21, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd agree with that.

A .360 OBP and good speed is still better than a .320 OBP and great speed. Avoiding outs is most important, and scoring runs has just as much to do with the guys hitting behind you. All the stolen bases is great, but they’re still an added risk.

They add value to Revere, but they don’t take value away from Span.

by Jesse on Sep 21, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

We can handwave that a little bit.

Revere has 33 SBs and 9 CS. So subtract 9 from the times on base used to calculate his OBP and add 24 to the total bases used to calculate his SLG and he goes from .264/.311/.298 to .264/.289/.357. Which is a lot better – 37 points of OPS is nothing to sneeze at – but still a pretty poor corner outfielder.

Alternately, we can say that Revere has reached second or farther under his own power in about 9.7% of his PAs this year. (I don’t care to check how many of those steals were of third, if somebody wants more accuracy go ahead.) By comparison, Span 2010 was at 8.9%, Mauer 2010 9.2%, Mauer 2009 10.4%, Casilla 2011 11.5%, Cuddyer 2011 10.7%. Just looking at those I’m thinking this stat isn’t telling us anything. I suppose you could refine it to less than two outs by looking at game data but I don’t think that’s likely to make a dramatic improvement, and it’s a lot of work.

by timprov on Sep 21, 2011 4:37 PM EDT reply actions

Even more nerdery...

I just realized that we can fine-tune this even more. Say the Twins put a traditionally horrible guy in the 2 hole, with a .300 OBP (to make the math easy). That means that, if Span has a 40-point advantage in OBP, that means that he will reach second base (at least) without an out taking place an additional 1.2% of the time compared to Revere, thanks to cases where he reaches first and takes second thanks to the guy batting behind him. That would put him ahead of Revere in that category, in addition to the simple advantage of avoiding outs more often.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Over the last month

Since the beginning of the Det series, he’s hitting about .300/.350/.326. Slugging doesn’t matter for him but if he hits .300 w/.350 obp and plays great defense, we’re ok. But, if not, … I think I’d rather go with an outfield of Kubel/Span/Benson and let Revere get more AAA time next year.

by Gunnarthor on Sep 21, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

I'd definitely rather have Kubel than Revere, but

the accountant in me says if Revere can duplicate his 2.0 WAR this season (via Fangraphs) at a baseline salary, it’s a much better choice than outbidding everyone for Kubel in free agency.

Also, how is Revere a 2.0 WAR player? Is it because he’s played a lot of center field? If so, the 20 run difference that is factored in if he shifts to left next season will effectively bring him to a 0 WAR player if I’m reading that right.

by foertsch on Sep 21, 2011 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions

You're reading it right.

A shift to left will definitely decrease his value in terms of replacement baselines.

by Jesse on Sep 22, 2011 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions

His runs above average might increase on defense

He’ll be compared to a lower baseline in LF

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Might be the Twins "outfield of the future" tonight

Revere Span Benson

by twinscrazy_german on Sep 21, 2011 7:00 PM EDT reply actions

What is cool is that he has a good percentage at such a young age. With more experience on reading pitches and timing deliveries, etc. He will only get better. He might be able to get up into and stay in the 82-85% range.

by JMP on Sep 22, 2011 3:39 AM EDT reply actions

I agree, this is promising stuff

We may be seeing 50 and 60 SB totals from Revere as he plays full seasons with higher batting averages.

There is some thought that if you’re stealing at an 85% rate you aren’t doing it often enough.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Trivia

Two Twins in the last 30 years have stolen more bases in a season than Ben Revere’s 2011. Name them.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 3:57 PM EDT reply actions

I knew one

I had a hard time finding the other, even though I just read something about him the other day.

by Caleb A on Sep 22, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Chuck Knoblauch and Guzman?

by Brady Eyestone on Sep 22, 2011 11:20 PM EDT via iPhone app up reply actions

Chuck is right

The other is Otis Nixon.

"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."

by John_Locke on Sep 23, 2011 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions