Where did all those runs go?

by Bobomojo on Sep 21, 2011 12:37 PM EDT in By the Numbers

Following last night's loss to the Seattle Mariners, the Minnesota Twins have now scored 582 runs on the season, the second worst mark in the American League and 104 runs (or 15%) behind the league average. At 3.8 runs per game, the Twins are on pace to score 616 runs in 2011, or 165 runs fewer than they scored in 2010.

Obviously the Twins offense is not the only culprit behind our miserable season: even if the Twins offense were scoring runs at the league average rate, they'd still likely have a sub-.500 record (more specifically, they'd have a .445 winning percentage according to their Pythagorean expectation). That being said, we all know that the Twins can't hope to compete in 2012 without a substantially better offense.

We'll be spending countless hours discussing and debating potential solutions to the Twins offensive woes in the coming months, but I thought we could start out with some simple accounting. If, in fact, the Twins offense in scoring runs 15% below the league average, where are we losing those runs? We'll dive in after the jump:

What I want to do is break down position-by-position the Twins offense, and compare it to the average American League offense. In order to make these comparisons, we won't be dealing with actual runs scored anymore; we'll be using Bill James' Runs Created (RC) formula to estimate how many runs were created by players at each position on the team.

Catcher

Catcher
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.180	0.241	0.253	0.494	29.49
AL AVG	0.239	0.306	0.392	0.698	64.08

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(34.59)

First, let me explain the chart. The first line shows what Twins catcher produced this season. As you can see, Twins catchers "hit" .180/.241/.253 this season, good for an astonishingly bad .494 OPS and roughly 30 "runs created." Across the American League, catchers hit .239/.306/.392, creating just over 64 runs. This means that Twins catchers produced nearly 35 runs below the league average.

Anyone who has watched the Twins this season wouldn't be surprised to see how poorly Twins catchers fared in this analysis: the combination of Drew Butera, Steve Holm and Rene Rivera have accounted for 70% of the playing time at this position. This is easily the Twins worst position this season, but (fingers crossed) also the one that will prove to be the easiest fix if Joe Mauer takes over the position full-time again next season.

First Base

First Base
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.301	0.355	0.443	0.798	89.47
AL AVG	0.272	0.341	0.452	0.793	88.6452

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					0.83

Despite the absence of Justin Morneau, first base has been the Twins strongest offensive position this season. In fact, it's the only position the Twins posted better than league-average production.

While this is good news, it doesn't necessarily mean good things for 2012. The vast majority of the Twins production at first came from Michael Cuddyer, who posted a .979 OPS in 170 PAs at first. Cuddyer, of course, is set to become a free agent in a matter of weeks. The rest of the positive production came from Joe Mauer and Chris Parmelee, names that no Twins fan would be happy to see as a full-time first baseman in 2012.

Second Base

Second Base
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.232	0.282	0.341	0.623	56.91
AL AVG	0.261	0.319	0.395	0.715	75.84

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(18.93)

Shortstop

Shortstop
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.232	0.286	0.308	0.595	50.15
AL AVG	0.265	0.321	0.385	0.706	72.84

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(22.69)

I combined these two positions to make a point: the Twins middle infield produced roughly 40 runs below average this season. In other words, ff the Twins were just able to field a second baseman and shortstop that could post a .700 OPS, their offense would improve by 40 runs. For the record, Orlando Hudson is currently sporting a .682 OPS playing in Petco, and JJ Hardy is sitting at .785.

Third Base

Third Base
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.247	0.301	0.379	0.680	60.69
AL AVG	0.245	0.313	0.391	0.704	68.67

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(7.97)

Despite his disappointing season, Danny Valencia has very nearly been a league-average third baseman in 2011.

Left Field

Left Field
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.240	0.292	0.318	0.610	51.84
AL AVG	0.252	0.314	0.393	0.707	74.04

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(22.20)

Eight different players have spent time in left this season, with Delmon Young and Rene Tosoni getting the vast majority (72%) of the playing time. Those eight players, combined, have failed to get on base 30% of the time, and have only hit 5 homeruns.

Center Field

Center Field
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.270	0.327	0.330	0.657	72.59
AL AVG	0.261	0.319	0.411	0.730	79.30

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(6.71)

While neither Denard Span nor Ben Revere have had monster offensive seasons, their decent on-base skills and great defense have made center field perhaps the Twins strongest position in 2011. Now we just need cross our fingers that Span comes back fully healed from his concussion.

Right Field

Right Field
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.267	0.333	0.424	0.757	79.45
AL AVG	0.267	0.338	0.431	0.769	85.88

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(6.43)

Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel have accounted for nearly 80% of the playing time in right field his season, combining to create a nearly exactly league-average right fielder. However, neither Kubel or Cuddyer have much defensive range in the outfield, limiting their overall value.

Designated Hitter

DH
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	RC
TWINS	0.237	0.327	0.419	0.746	73.59
AL AVG	0.266	0.341	0.431	0.772	81.40

Runs Created Above (Below) Average:					(7.81)

Four different players received at least 50 PAs as the Twins designated hitter this season: Jim Thome (230 PAs), Jason Kubel (160 PAs), Joe Mauer (57 PAs), and Justin Morneau (54 PAs). Of those, Thome is gone, Kubel is a free agent, Mauer will (hopefully) field a position next season, and Morneau...well, no one really knows what Morneau's role will be in 2012.

Conclusion

There is no question that the Twins offense has been terrible this season. Using this accounting, the major holes are clear:

Catcher - 35 runs below average

Middle Infield - 41 runs below average

Left Field - 22 runs below average

And, if the Twins fail to bring back Cuddyer and Kubel, you can add the other corner outfield spot to that list.

Simply finding league average talent to fill these position is critical to repairing this broken offense. Before we can get stronger, first we need to close the gaping holes at these positions. One of the Twins secrets in 2010 was finding at least league-average talent to fill long-time holes at third, short, and second. As we enter a critical off-season with the difficult challenge of rebounding from a 100-loss season, our first priority is clear: stop the bleeding.

Well, that and pray for good health.

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Comments

Don't praying for good health and stop the bleeding kind of mean the same thing?

I don’t really expect the Twins to make a major move this offseason, so they’re going to have to depend on players returning from injuries to stop the bleeding.

by Caleb A on Sep 21, 2011 1:02 PM EDT reply actions

Another example of why Mauer is so important to this team

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

Rec'd

Great look, Beau.

by Jesse on Sep 21, 2011 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

Highlighting again

How stupid were the moves that left us without Hudson, Hardy and Ramos.

But I’d be fine with Mauer at first next year if it meant the Mourneau was healthy at DH and they got a contributing catcher in free agency.

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 3:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Great stuff

This is a brilliant post. Thank you. It’s so useful because it tracks each position and how we did relative to our competitors. Hudson and Hardy would have added some meat this season and instead we’re “working” through Casilla and Nishioka. It’s tough.

The post also highlights the reasons for the massive payday for Mauer. A catcher who hits .330 is worth a lot of money — because he’s almost a 100 points higher than the average catcher. He had some injuries this season and that is one major reason our catchers hit .180, but he’s got to get back to that position.

It’s fantasy to think that a first baseman who hits .330 is a fair deal at $23,000,000. The off-season goal should be to get Mauer to catch. That’s where he belongs and that’s what we paid for. If that doesn’t work out, well, I don’t know where we go. I suppose we see how he does next year. But if it doesn’t work out, based on what Joe said about his legs not allowing him to drive the ball, I think we’re in real trouble. I mean, I think we have another year of .280 at first base. And at $23,000,000, that is a pretty expensive deal — three really good players.

He’s gotta hit the gym this offseason.

by Teo12345 on Sep 21, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions

I don't follow

A catcher who bests the average player by 100 points of BA is worth a huge contract but a first baseman who bests the average player by 50 points of BA isn’t worth a huge contract?

He got the big contract for two reasons: 1. he can hit, and 2. he helps sell tickets. Catching and being a physical wreck imperils both of those attributes and will shorten his career so that he may not be able to produce for the length of his contract.

What’s wrong with avoiding all that and having him at first (other than not having a replacement catcher)?

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Scarcity

He got the big contract for two reasons: 1. he can hit, and 2. he helps sell tickets.

Those are both true, but they’re not the only two reasons – being a catcher is a HUGE part of Mauer’s value, because it’s horrifically hard to find catchers who hit like he does (and that’s ignoring the fact that he’s generally regarded as a solid defensive catcher).

To put some numbers behind it, Mauer has a career wOBA* of .377. This season, there is exactly one catcher in MLB who has a higher wOBA – Alex Avila, at .387. No one else is within 25 points of Mauer’s career rate.

By comparison, there are currently seven first basemen with better than .377 wOBA, and another within ten points of that. Mauer is simply not an elite offensive player relative to his peers as a first baseman.

I get the “he’s worthless if he can’t play at all” argument, and it has merit, but I’m not comfortable just giving up on a huge part of Mauer’s value – I think the Twins simply have to give him another shot at being the full-time catcher.

wOBA = weighted On-Base Average – basically, it’s one of those all-in-one stats that tries to encompass a player’s offensive value as a rate stat, basically on the same scale as OBP

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 21, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

More scarcity

The “next most scarce” position Mauer could play is 3B, not 1B.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I get that 1B hit better than catchers

But I still don’t follow how being at catcher is the key. Sure, he’s a lot harder to replace at catcher. But he’s still a great hitter at whatever position he plays (although one with less power than some). In other words, he isn’t Mike Piazza – a guy who was only a great hitter for a catcher.

Yes, had he always been fist baseman, he wouldn’t have gotten the same contract. But his value is still his bat, and the opportunity cost depends entirely on what the alternative is at catcher. Currently, the alternative is terrible, so you are right, but less so if they could replace him with someone who can hit.

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

One quibble

“By comparison, there are currently seven first basemen with better than .377 wOBA, and another within ten points of that. Mauer is simply not an elite offensive player relative to his peers as a first baseman.”

He’s posted his wOBA (or whatever stat we want to look at) as a catcher. If he played first, I would expect that his offensive numbers would increase since he wouldn’t be dealing with the grind behind the plate. Mauer’s career OPS+ of 134 is higher than Youk, Teixera, Wright, Zimmerman, McCann, HanRam, Dunn etc without taking leagues into account. (B-R doesn’t have wOBA). I think we sometimes underestimate how good he is as a hitter, period. I still think his floor (barring injury) would be a 6warish mostly-DH like Molitor was in his mid 30s.

Additionally, you are assuming that a .377 wOBA in the AL and NL are equal, they aren’t (although it’s gotten closer over the last couple years).

by Gunnarthor on Sep 21, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Amen

For the $23,000,000 to work, Mauer’s gotta catch.

There are first basemen in both leagues who hit very well (Cabrera, .331) and who hit for power (Howard 33HRs). And there are a few who do both (Pujols: .300, 36HRs).

Catching is a different animal. Just look at the difference between Mauer and the league average for a catcher. And, he is a very good defensive catcher. It’s so difficult to find a catcher that hits over .300 and who can hit some home runs.

by Teo12345 on Sep 21, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Because first basemen who hit don't get $23 mil?

Cabrera’s making $20 million this year. Howard’s making $20 million. Pujols $16 million (in the last year, about to go way up). Texeira’s getting $22.5.

Why’s he gotta catch?

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Because the Twins aren't the Yankees or the Phillies

They can’t afford to overpay at 1B

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

How about the Tigers and the Cardinals?

Again, you can pay $23 mil for a guy who can hit .330 every year, hopefully with 15+ homers, and play every day, or you can pay $23 mil for guy who is beat up so he can’t live up to his offensive potential.

Again, I agree they wouldn’t have given him that money to play first base. But if the option is to have him not be able to play, and not be able to hit as well when he does play, I say move him to first, especially as Morneau doesn’t seem like to be a regular in the field again.

And I don’t see that as a terrible result unless you think you can trade him for equal value, which I don’t see happening.

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Understand that a hitting catcher is a premium

and that no other team has anything close to a Mauer. I’m not disputing that moving him to 1st base may help him prolong his career, I’m just saying reverse the position on the same guys you listed i.e. Pujols, Cabrera, Howard, Doucheira.
Imagine if Pujols was a catcher his value would be 35 mil to a team like the Red Sox who have what… Salty and Varitek (heard he just joined AARP) There are more teams with a black hole at catcher than at 1st.

JIM JAMS BUSINESS IS MASHING TATERS, AND BUSINESS IS GOOD!!!

by MashinTaters on Sep 21, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Why not move him to 3B?

He can handle 3B. The position hits for a .700 OPS. I don’t understand why the “logical” move is 1B.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions

2nd base

His power numbers fit with middle infield and he cant be any worse than Cuddy defensively. Maybe even SS since he has the arm to make the throw from the hole.

by I_was_here on Sep 22, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions

No

I don’t think he can jump from C to 2B. Biggio is the only player I know who made that jump. I also don’t want Mauer turning the pivot. 2B is not where you move to extend your career.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

It was a joke

I do not know how to make the sarcastic font.

Anyhow, for longevity reasons I would rather have Mauer in the outfield on the grass, than on the infeild dirt. Like 3b his arm maintains value and his knees take less of a pounding.

by I_was_here on Sep 22, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Because 1B looks open right now

And he’s played 1B already. And I’m hopeful that Valencia will bounce back from his sophomore slump.

But obviously if Mourneau is healthy and able to play in the field, first base doesn’t look like as good a spot for Mauer.

by amiller92 on Sep 22, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Cabrera doesn't make $23M

And he has a better bat than Mauer. Pujols is a perennial MVP.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Well...

No offense to Mauer, but Pujols and Cabrera are much better offensive players than he is. Howard and Tex are overpaid, and you’ll notice that they still make less than Mauer does.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

That AL average for LF is really low.

Thinking about it, I guess we have a bunch of pretty bad LFs in the league this year. But that can’t be expected to continue indefinitely.

by timprov on Sep 21, 2011 4:20 PM EDT reply actions

Great analysis Bobomojo

by Buddy Grant on Sep 21, 2011 4:40 PM EDT reply actions

You cannot be 6'5", have a history of knee/leg problems and be a catcher.

The sooner the Twins, and more important Joe Mauer realize that the better. A healthy Mauer at first or in right field, hitting .330 average with some run production is better than a beat up Mauer trying to catch and not hitting very well.

As for Morneau, you cannot have the history of concussions he has had and expect the future to be bright. I knew a guy back in college who saw his hockey career end after a few good years in the NHL because of a concussion every year. Like Koskie, Morneau’s next concussion may end his career. Who amongst us doesn’t expect there to be another concussion next year?

by roger13 on Sep 21, 2011 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Who was the guy?

by MNPundit on Sep 21, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Mike Eaves

by roger13 on Sep 21, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions

-1

I want the catcher who hits .330. That’s what I paid $23,000,000 for. He needs to do some squats and get that strength back so he can drive the ball – and catch and hit .330.

by Teo12345 on Sep 21, 2011 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions

What if you can't have it

Wouldn’t you rather have a first baseman who it’s like that (or better) than a hobbled catcher who can’t hit like that anymore?

Squats or no, catching is really hard on the body, especially if you’re a big guy.

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Mauer’s contract has been signed. It’s a sunk cost. There’s no use arguing about the money at this point.

Everyone, including Mauer himself, would prefer that he be healthy and at catcher. The team is going to try and make that happen. But if it’s not possible to do so while keeping his knees intact, having him at 1B or 3B or even DH is better than having him constantly on the DL.

by ColossusOfRhode on Sep 21, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Exactly

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I am going to say it: I like Mauer at first base.

This is based on my belief that Justin Morenau is done playing in the field (and maybe at all) and that irrespective of what he wants to do, Mauer needs to give his knees a break so he can be most productive for the team for years and years to come rather than shredding his knees after only a few more years.

by MNPundit on Sep 21, 2011 5:36 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

100 losses

Do you also like 100 losses?

Come on — think. What made Mauer unique? If anything, the 2010 season was the perfect illustration of the problem with the Twins without Mauer. We lost our first basemen, Morneau, from mid-July through the rest of the season. We found a way to go on a real roll and to win the division title.

When we lost our catcher, Mauer, this year, we headed for an unrecoverable tailspin. Sure, some of the problem was that our backups are horrific hitters. But a lot of it is that Mauer is such a great hitter when he is healthy and at catcher that is hugely beneficial.

You can always find some decent-hitting first baseman or third-baseman (at least, most GMs can). Finding a great-hitting catcher is amazing. And that is why you pay him $23,000,000.

by Teo12345 on Sep 21, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

First baseman that hit as well as Parmelee are easy to find

Catchers that hit as well as Parmelee are All-Stars.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Really????

How many guys have you seen that have hit this well from their first September call up? Or for that matter anyone called up in their first couple of week of play. I think it’s exciting to see. Think what how well he will hit when he really starts to relax and gets more experience under his belt. Looks like a nice glimps into the future.

by balls to the wall on Sep 21, 2011 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Moral of Story: Have your hot streak immediately after your call-up

He was holding his own in AA, but he was repeating the league. He really should spend a few months in Rochester. Glenn Williams and Michael Restovich had hot streaks after their first call-up as well.

Playing lights out sure beats the alternative, though. We’ve seen better prospects have a bad first call-up and get the “AAAA-player” label and be banished to the minors.

by DavidRF on Sep 21, 2011 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions

He has a good eye....

Based on his minor league walk record and the RBI count, when placed in a position of having major league umping these players tend to do better. It would appear some high strike out rates he’s had can be attributed to not swinging at balls off the plate weather the ump is calling strikes or not. That will usually help out in the long run. By looking at his K record as he has moved up, this looks to be the case. So far his K % is about 11%. It just looks promising. Compaired to watching some of the other young guns.

by balls to the wall on Sep 21, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Really

Parmelee’s minor league stats look a lot like Matt Lawton.

by DJL44 on Sep 21, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

first basemen who can hit get paid a lot too

by amiller92 on Sep 21, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I think this is wrong.

What made Mauer unique was that he was very good at playing baseball. In reality it doesn’t matter WHERE offensive production is coming from. A team with a 1.000 OPS guy is still a team with 1.000 OPS guy whether they play 1B or catcher. In the lineup he’s just a hitter. The value of the catcher is based on his defensive abilities, and teams can win without a good hitting catcher if they have a certain level of offensive.

I’m going to totally discount the theory that losing Mauer was the MAIN component of the losing of 2011. There are a number of other factors and too many outright bad players and staff everywhere on the team to think Mauer would have made the difference. Players who were downgrades compared to 2010, even absent question marks which failed.

To the extent that Mauer brings additional value as a hitting catcher, it’s because we used to have a really good hitting 1B. My theory generally hinges on Morneau being unable to play 1B next year. Maybe he will be able to, but I wouldn’t wager a penny on it. This leaves a hole. Say we get 2-3 years of Mauer as catcher and then his knees/legs are shot. Compare that to say 5-7 years of Mauer’s offense and acceptable (maybe even good?) defense at 1B. What’s worth more? This also assumes that Bill Smith continues to be the bumbling moron he is but I don’t think too many would like to wager on that either.

Basically the best use of available resources if Moreanu is gone is to shift Mauer to 1B.

by MNPundit on Sep 21, 2011 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions

#1

The idea that Mauer is “worth more” as a catcher is a Fangraphs fantasy in which a given level of offense somehow equates to more wins if it comes from a catcher. It doesn’t. A single is a single, no matter which position you happen to play when you take the field in the following half inning to play defense.

I’d like to see Mauer play 3b, but that’s partly because I haven’t given up on Morneau yet. If Morneau is done, then 1b is logical. No matter where, though, having him on the field for 155 games, and as healthy as possible, should be the priority.

by USAFChief on Sep 22, 2011 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions

You're thinking of it the wrong way

The idea that Mauer is "worth more" as a catcher is a Fangraphs fantasy in which a given level of offense somehow equates to more wins if it comes from a catcher. It doesn’t. A single is a single, no matter which position you happen to play when you take the field in the following half inning to play defense.

The issue isn’t that a single from a catcher is somehow worth more than a single from a first baseman or DH or whatever. The point is that a good-hitting catcher is harder to find than a good-hitting first baseman or DH. If the Twins had Mauer at first base and Morneau (or someone who hit like him) catching, Mauer’s production at first isn’t an issue. But as the Twins have shown this past year, good luck finding a replacement catcher who can hit worth a damn.

Like I said above, there are easily a half-dozen first basemen who hit better than Mauer does. There is, maybe, one catcher who fits the same description. You simply lose a lot more replacing Mauer with an average catcher than you do with replacing Morneau with an average first baseman.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Sep 22, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions

You get 9 lineup slots

The catcher has to bat. If your up-the-middle players (C, CF, SS, 2B) are great hitters then you’re much more likely to have a good run-scoring lineup. It is so much easier to find average hitters for LF, DH, RF and 1B.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

We can all agree with this

No matter where, though, having him on the field for 155 games, and as healthy as possible, should be the priority.

If Mauer needs to move from catcher (for long or short-term health reasons) in order to have a full productive season, the question is where to move him that will help the Twins the most.

Consider this hypothetical situation. Next April the Twins decide that Mauer can’t catch, and he needs to move either 1B, 3B or OF. Now Morneau is looking good at 1B (let’s hope!), Valencia is at 3B, and for some reason they front office decides to go with Repko/Tosoni in RF. In this case, it would make the most sense to move Mauer to RF and eliminate as many Repko/Tosoni at bats as possible, because Valencia > Repko/Tosoni. This makes the most sense for the Twins EVEN THOUGH Mauer would be “worth more” at 3B from a Fangraphs perspective.

I think we all agree that the best case scenario is to have Mauer successfully catch a full season to avoid giving many (or any!) at bats to the Butera/Rivera/Holm monstrocity. I don’t think there would be a huge push to keep Mauer at catcher if we had someone above-average (like Ramos) to take all those catcher at bats. But sadly that’s not the world we live in.

by markos on Sep 22, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

See Bob Allison 1964 for an example

The Twins maximized Allison’s value to the team, not to the league.

by DJL44 on Sep 22, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I mostly agree

And yes, they cant’ have Butera/Holm/Rivera as the main catcher. That’s a recipe for another season like this one. Which means if Mauer can’t catch, they need to find someone else, which is why i say that should be priority number 1.

by amiller92 on Sep 22, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Good work!

For some reason, my browser seems to add extras spaces and I read one line as “the Twins middle infield produced an ughly 40 runs below average”. UGH is correct on that one!

by gonzobob on Sep 21, 2011 7:13 PM EDT reply actions

What's the metric used to make a projection of games won/lost each season?

I simply cannot remember the name, but I do remember the Twins tend to either undershoot or overshoot it considerably.

by MNPundit on Sep 21, 2011 11:50 PM EDT reply actions

The "Pythagorean expectation" (based on the Pythagorean theorem, sort of)

Bill James theorized that you can pretty accurately estimate wins by the following formula:

Wins = runs scored(squared) / runs scored(squared) + runs allowed(squared)

simplified:

Wins = 1 / 1 + (runs scored/runs allowed)(squared)

In either case, take the result and multiply it by the number of games played, and you should have the number of wins for that team. Historically it’s fairly accurate when you look at multiple teams over mulitple years.

Minor improvements to the accuracy of this basic formula have since been developed (pythagenpat and pythagenport versions are two of note) that use more advanced mathmatical formulas.

The Twins beat their “should have won” number by 8 games in 2002, and by 5 games in 2003 and 2004. They were also +3 in 2006. They’ve been within 1 or 2 games of their PE every other year in the Gardy era, with only 3 years where they won less games than they “should have,” and never by more than -1. That includes 2011 so far, where, believe it or not, the PE says they should have 1 fewer win than the few they actually do have…which is nice.

by USAFChief on Sep 22, 2011 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions