Twinkie Town 2012 Top 50...Round 27!
by roger13 on Jan 10, 2012 7:14 PM EST
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PrintLester Oliveros grabbed the Twenty-Sixth spot in this year's poll with 46 of 203 votes (22%). Deolis Guerra was a close second with 41 votes, Nate Roberts third (34), Tyler Robertson fourth (20) and Terry Doyle fifth (17).
Added to the next round will be a young man who was one of the top two or three relievers in the organization this year, Matt Hauser. Hauser, who was a 2010 seventh round pick out of the University of San Diego, moved up twice this year from Beloit to New Britain. He had a 3-0 record, 5 saves and 1.40 ERA in 17 games (19.1 innings) with 27 strikeouts and 13 walks at Beloit. He made 24 appearances in Ft. Myers (41.2 innings) with a 2-6 record, 7 saves and 2.16 ERA with 44 strikeouts and 16 walks. He appeared in one game at New Britain, allowing one run in 2.2 innings with four strikeouts and no walks.
This round will remain open until Wednesday evening. Please continue to let me know who should be added. The next six I have on deck are Cole DeVries, Andrew Albers, JaDamion Williams, Anderson Hidalgo, Michael Gonzalez and Tyler Grimes.
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I know, it just seemed funny to me...that's why I put it in the sarcasm font
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
Hauser & Robertson
Both these guys are very good relievers & both are very deserving to be in the top 25. Great righty lefty combo!
Guerra
oh yes and by the way Guerra is pretty good too
Dean
Hauser is older then Dean and relief pitcher don’t get to the big often. Robertson next, Guerra, Diamond, then Hauser.
When was the last position player picked?
I feel like we have done nothing but picked relievers the last 5-6 rounds…that being said I voted for Deolis Guerra
He has been pitching decent in Winter ball:
7 Walks
23 SO
1.05 WHIP
3.71 ERA
0 games started
23 IP
This is his last option year so the twins will need to push him this year. If the twins don’t sign any more bullpen arms, I think he will be a reliever in the AAA bullpen year and has a good shot of being with the Twins before August.
Roughly half the prospects should be pitchers
Eventually we were going to pick a whole bunch of pitchers.
John Sickels has Hauser #24 on his prospect list with Dean not listed. Sickels is a pretty bright guy Hauser has hit 97 mph with a 89 mhp slider and a developing change up. Look at his K ratios – he has it going on……
Hauser
I think I had him at 27-29 as well. I think he’s the Twins next closer option and certainly the top relief prospect.
The more relievers I discover, the less interested I am in the Twins signing a retread
Use this year to find out what we have, as painful as that might be. Between Oliveros, Hauser, Robertson, Gutierrez, and Guerra, we should have a couple of guys emerge as viable set-up men to go along with Perkins and Duensing, Burnett, Swarzak, Waldrop and Doyle. Not a stellar group to be sure. But some of them have upside. Let’s see it.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
"emerge" & "should"
Were the bullpen buzzwords at the start of last season too. That didn’t work out so well.
2012:
Perkinds
Duensing
Capps
Then there is this motley bunch:
Burton, Grey, Molonay, Swarzak, Burnett, Gutierrez, Slama, Waldrop, Doyle, DeVeris, Oliveros, Robertson, Guerra and maybe a few more I missed.
I like most of those guys but they should be fighting for 1-2 spots. Instead 4-5 of these guys will make the team.
That bullpen coupled with a shaky rotation makes me really want some more arms, retreads or not. As it stands even with a healthy Morneau, Maurer and Span loses will come in bunches due to the pitiful rotation.
by clutterheart on Jan 11, 2012 12:21 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not as down on the rotation as you are
Last year, four of the five were injured (counting Marquis). Guys didn’t pitch well when hurt, and then were shut down. We had a lot of games from the likes of Slowey and Diamond last year. I think 2010 is a more reasonable performance for the group, except for Pavano. He should be somewhere between 2010 and 2011. Blackburn is a big question mark health wise, but he’s only the fifth starter with a lot of serviceable guys able to take his place if necessary.
It’s not a division leading rotation. But we won’t have as many short starts this year. That’s what really killed the bullpen last year. Most of the bad performances were made worse by overuse.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
That was the plan last year
We found out that Perkins can be helpful in the bullpen and Swarzak won’t hurt you too bad. We’ll probably find out that about 2 more guys this year. The problem is there are 3-4 open spots.
Pavano's ERA and SIERA were identical last year.
I think he is was he is at this point, and that’s below average.
by tobynotjason on Jan 11, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
Below average?
2010: 3.1 WAR
2011: 2.9 WAR
Average is 2.0 WAR.
I’ll take anyone who can give me 220 innings and take some pressure off the bullpen.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
His rate stats are below average
His durability is significantly above average.
Rate stats schmate stats
I’d take five Pavanos. Besides, strikeouts are fascist.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Also
I’m not a fan of WAR, but 2.0 seems to be the bellwether around here of average, quoted by you so many times I lost count. You can’t be arguing against WAR because it conveniently doesn’t fit your stereotype of a good pitcher.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
He's more than worth his contract
I don’t know why anyone would want to get rid of him. He’s far from the “weak link” in the rotation.
Sorry for being imprecise.
I was NOT commenting on his win-value over the course of a season. I was commenting on how good a pitcher he is when he’s out there.
As for the (more important, you are correct) big picture:
fWAR is FIP based, which in general I much prefer to the RA based bWAR. But as I said, I’m guessing per SIERA that he’s much closer to a 4.30 true talent guy than a 4.10 guy,. Given the unique fact that his SIERA was exactly the same as his ERA, I’m inclined to look at his bWAR as a better gauge of his likely talent in this case, which is 2.0.
You factor in decline for age and I think he’s likely to slip below that. Actually, even if his durability as in “actual ability to throw pitches at his average level of effectiveness” is identical, as a practical (IP and thus WAR) matter it won’t be if indeed his performance slips below 4.30, since he’ll be pulled earlier and accordingly eat less innings, snowballing the effect on WAR.
But yeah, his value is in his durability, that’s for certain.
by tobynotjason on Jan 12, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
97?
Where did you see that FB speed ? In 2010 BA said he is usually in the 88 – 92 range. It would be strange for a Senior to add 5 mph in the minors, especially when he was a reliever in the college…but if so, great!
by clutterheart on Jan 11, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Check it Out
Voted by Baseball America as the best fastball in the 2010 Twins Draft quoted 95 MPH 2011 was slighly higher – there is a lot of unreliable information out there – I like Baseball America the best . USD used him as their closer and he was nominated for the college stopper of the year which is given to the nations top relief pitcher. check it out – it’s all right there – google it.
BA = Baseball America
That is where I got the 88 – 92 range (via another site as I don’t pay for the subscription)..weird…but its not stange for guns to vary. Hopefully the numbers you read is right, and the numbers I read is wrong.
Which just shows how inexact the world of scouting is. I can’t imagine how those guys make a career out of it.
Sickels can call him “average velocity” and someone else can say say “the best fastball”
With such a long timeline I am sure most guys get tagged with just about every label.
by clutterheart on Jan 11, 2012 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
Guys can add life on the fastball for a variety of reasons
Look at Perkins. He had a sore arm for three years and couldn’t hit 92. He got healthy and was hitting 96. Also, college velocity is deceptive. Coaches don’t want kids letting loose for fear of injury.
As for Sickels, he does very little scouting. Almost all of his research is via BA and BP, with some numerical analysis mixed in. He might have been citing the early readings from BA.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Players rarely bring it in the majors like they do in scouting reports
Touch 97 MPH once on a fastball down the middle and all of a sudden you can “throw 97”.
Have we voted on Daniel Ortiz yet?
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Interesting tidbit: Hauser is a year older than Guerra.
I voted for Guerra because I like pitchers who throw great changeups. Seth Stohs and Baseball America (I believe John Manuel, specifically) both say Guerra has a great changeup. Hopefully, he’ll continue to have success out of the bullpen.
As of today, Guerra is all of 21 years old.
People like new shiny things. I find it amazing that people have decided he has no future outside of the bullpen. Obviously that’s his route to MLB, but I’m not convinced that’s the end of the story.
by tobynotjason on Jan 11, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
Three years in AA
Was terrible in his one shot at AAA. Has been horrible as a starter for 3 years now. Hasn’t posted an ERA below 4 since A ball 5 years ago.
I thought he was born in April 1989.
Is that wrong? OH wait. LOL. Oh my god, my subtraction skills SUCK. I literally went, “‘89, so he’s 21.” Maybe I am refusing to acknowledge the passage of time. AH!
Still, I haven’t written him off. He was SO jacked by the Mets. The Twins tried to take it apart and put the pieces back together, but it’s an imprecise art. His performance as a reliever tells me the raw stuff is there. Failing as a AA starter at age… waitaminnit… 2010 is… ok… at age 21/22 doesn’t kill him for me. 2009 at AA looked so promising – the ONLY thing against him was event-chaining. I almost wonder if the ERA got in his head and he thought he had to do something different.
by tobynotjason on Jan 12, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
193 votes so far.
55 M. Hauser
40 D. Guerra
24 T. Robertson
19 T. Doyle
18 N. Roberts
12 TIED: M. Summers, S. Diamond
07 P. Dean
04 J. Perez
02 A. Mata
Spam away!
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