Updated 2012 MLB Draft Order (January 27th)
by DJSkillz on Jan 11, 2012 12:41 AM EST
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Updated MLB draft order for 2012 to this point; just 3 Type B Free Agent picks left to be determined. A few notes:
- Carlos Beltran and Takashi Saito both had clauses in their contracts that they could not be offered arbitration.
- Roy Oswalt was not offered arbitration.
- The Red Sox will not get a compensation pick for the loss of Dan Wheeler, since he signed a minor league deal with the Indians (why did the Twins not sign him, again?)
- David Ortiz, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kelly Johnson all accepted arbitration.
- The top 15 picks in the draft are protected picks under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Previous reports had the top 10 picks being protected under the new CBA, but according to both MLBTradeRumors and Keith Law, Ryan Madson's signing makes it clear that's the case, becau
- There was a pool of Modified Type A Free Agents that do not require signing teams to relinquish their respective First Round Picks. For this pool of players, the compensated team receives the pick immediately preceding the traditional draft slot of the signing team.
- Picks TBD (for remaining unsigned "compensation" Free Agents) are denoted with ****
Got all that? Here is the draft order for the first 2 rounds (including supplemental picks):
- Beginning of Round 1: Houston Astros
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Baltimore Orioles
- Kansas City Royals
- Chicago Cubs
- San Diego Padres
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Miami Marlins
- Colorado Rockies
- Oakland Athletics
- New York Mets
- Chicago White Sox
- Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Indians
- Washington Nationals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
- San Francisco Giants
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for failing to sign 2011 1st rd pick Tyler Beede (Vanderbilt)
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Milwaukee Brewers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Prince Fielder (Tigers)
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Texas Rangers
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox; compensation for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
- Beginning of Supplemental Type A's: Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
- San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
- Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Josh Willingham (Twins)
- New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
- St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Albert Pujols (Angels)
- Boston Red Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies)
- Milwaukee Brewers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Prince Fielder (Tigers)
- Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson (Angels)
- Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Ryan Madson (Reds)
- Beginning of Supplemental Type B's: Houston Astros; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Clint Barmes (Pirates)
- Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jason Kubel (Diamondbacks)
- Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aramis Ramirez (Brewers)
- San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Aaron Harang (Dodgers)
- Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Ryan Doumit (Twins)
- Colorado Rockies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Ellis (Dodgers)
- Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent David DeJesus (Cubs)
- Chicago White Sox; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Mark Buehrle (Marlins)
- Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of modified Type B Free Agent Francisco Cordero (Blue Jays)
- Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Frank Francisco (Mets)
- Los Angeles Dodgers; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Rod Barajas (Pirates)
- **** St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Edwin Jackson (TBD)
- Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Darren Oliver (Blue Jays)
- **** Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Raul Ibanez (TBD)
- Chicago Cubs; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Carlos Pena (Rays)
- **** Pittsburgh Pirates; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Derrek Lee (TBD)
- Cincinnati Reds; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Ramon Hernandez (Rcokies)
- Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jon Rauch (Mets)
- St. Louis Cardinals; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Octavio Dotel (Tigers)
- Toronto Blue Jays; compensation pick for loss of Type B Free Agent Jose Molina (Rays)
- Beginning of Round 2: Houston Astros
- Oakland Athletics; compensation pick for loss of Modified Type A Free Agent Josh Willingham (Twins)
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Baltimore Orioles
- Kansas City Royals
- Chicago Cubs
- San Diego Padres
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- San Diego Padres; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Heath Bell (Marlins)
- New York Mets; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent Jose Reyes (Marlins)
- Minnesota Twins; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Michael Cuddyer (Rockies)
- Colorado Rockies
- Oakland Athletics
- New York Mets
- Chicago White Sox
- Philadelphia Phillies; compensation pick for loss of modified Type A Free Agent Ryan Madson (Reds)
- Cincinnati Reds
- Cleveland Indians
- Washington Nationals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Texas Rangers; compensation pick for loss of Type A Free Agent CJ Wilson
- San Francisco Giants
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Detroit Tigers
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Texas Rangers
- New York Yankees
- Philadelphia Phillies
From a Twins' standpoint, they they will now have the 32nd overall pick as compensation for Michael Cuddyer's departure and #42 as compensation for Jason Kubel's departure. Assuming the above holds (ie all of the remaining compensation Free Agents find new homes) the Twins' picks will be:
#2, #32, #42, #63, #72, and #96 overall.
I will keep this up to date as we move along. There are only 3 remaining "compensation" Free Agents left unsigned.
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Comments
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You have the Twins listed #2 in the draft order and listed below at #3. FYI
Remember, remember the seventh of November.
I should also note...
the Twins essentially ended up forfeiting the #57 pick in the draft by signing Matt Capps.
Uggh.
no, it's not...
Matt Capps was a modified Type B under the new CBA and they didn’t have to do anything with him other than not re-sign him.
Not smart, at all.
Considering how unimportant the bullpen appears to be to the FO, yeah.
I agree. Signing Capps does little for me – I’d have rather had an extra top 100 pick.
and as we discussed at length...
it’s not like it’s a choice between the two. they could have signed any number of equal (or better) relievers to capps for the same money (or less) AND had the #57 pick. just makes no sense. other than terry ryan’s concerning statements about “we don’t care much about draft picks”.
by the way...
as an example; would you rather have Matt Capps and Dan Wheeler (seems inevitable to me) at about $7M combined? Or Ryan Madson, the best reliever on the market by far, for $8.5M AND the #57 draft pick? Seems like a no brainer to me.
Madson signed with the Reds
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
i know...
for $8.5M. that’s my point. i’d much rather have signed him for that same money (or even $1M or so) than Matt Capps and Dan Wheeler for slightly less. And still maintained a #57 draft pick.
Yeah
I get that. I certainly don’t agree with the Twins’ preference for Capps. I threatened to stop being a fan after they resigned him. But there’s a lot more to the GM role than just signing the guys you want. They also have to consider who is willing to sign with you. If you go after Madson and don’t sign him, and Capps signs with someone else, we’re left with Wheeler or someone like that. That’s the worst case scenario.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
sure...
but Madson was just an example. obviously, as we’ve been over, there were plenty of guys just as good (or better) than capps that could have been signed for the same or less money.
Yes
I would have rather they signed Broxton, who signed for less. But again, maybe they didn’t want to come here. I don’t know.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
i just find it hard to believe i guess...
most guys sign for the most money, wherever it is. i just can’t imagine the twins not being able to sign saito or broxton for less than they signed capps.
A lot of guys prefer geography or winning
As long as the difference is within a couple mil or so. Some guys want to go where they will get better opportunities to showcase their talents for a future payout. They don’t just go to the highest bidder.
Nathan didn’t even give us a chance to match the Rangers’ offer. He wanted to go with a winner.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Given the state of the pen
I’d want 2 guys.. That said, as someone else said, we could have found someone comparable to Capps for the same or less and gotten the pick. I don’t mind forgoing the pick if you think the guy will be a steal (like I suspect Kubel will be), but Capps pretty much is what he is at this point, and it wasn’t worth giving up the draft pick.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 11, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Hopefully
after the college season starts, there are two sure thing top tier college pitchers so that we get one of them…. I’d probably populate a good number of those picks with high upside highschoolers.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 11, 2012 11:43 AM EST reply actions
not me...
I’d like to see as many college guys as possible (all things being equal). Mauer’s window is closing year by year.
Plus, our current high-end prospects are still 2 or 3 years away...at the nearest.
Some of them will flame out along the way. And as the current MLB roster continues to get older, adding good collegiate prospects in the draft will supplement the next wave that we so desperately need to arrive.
If they want to gamble on one or two prep players that’s fine, but I’d prefer the bulk of our six top 100 picks to go to college players.
Best player available
Always, always, always draft the best player available. Distance from the majors shouldn’t matter whatsoever. You can always trade good prospects for big league players.
absolutely...
which is why i said “all things being equal”. BPA is the way to go, but IDEALLY we get a couple of college guys who can help quickly in this draft. IMO.
BPA is subjective.
It’s not an exact science. You could, in theory, have 5 people draft at the same number pick and they would see the BPA as 5 different guys. Different scouts/teams value different qualities and skills in people more than others. For example, Twins may put more value on control with pitchers than another team. Best talent doesn’t always equal BPA IMO.
Also,
Don’t even the most “can’t miss” prospects take 3 years or more to make it to the big leagues? i thought that’s when a few of our top current prospects are projected to break into the big leagues. I’m still trying to learn this baseball stuff. It seems to me like you would be better off taking high schoolers with higher upside than college players for the simple fact that you need more talent eventually. You have 2-3 years to see what you have in your minor leaguers coming up before your next batch of prospects are major league ready. Right? I don’t understand why more college players that project to roughly the same skill level as guys we already have would be more valuable. I’m not being snide. Please explain this to me. I’m still learning.
There are a lot of different factors. A couple of them are...
1, college players tend to be more advanced in their development and you have a better idea about if a player will reach his ceiling ( or even what his ceiling truly is). It’s not as much a matter of minimising risk over talent, it’s a matter of having more data on college guys, which has value.
2, Winning on a budget isn’t achieved by having the best prospects, it’s having a successful group of prospects all reaching the majors at the same time. A good example of this is the 2002 Twins. The Pirates, on the other hand, have a long history of trading away great players because they can never surround them with enough quality players. IMO, the Twins have a strong group of hitters in A ball (Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Michael) that are going to reach the majors at the same time. If you can draft good college players in 2012 they can skip rookie ball and advance with this core group and you’ll have a strong contender for years. The Twins could use one more impacted bat and/or a couple of dominating starters at this level.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Good analysis
The Michael draft makes so much sense for this team because it puts him in with that great group of hitters. The last time the Twins drafted a college shortstop prior to Michaels? Chuck Knoblauch. So it’s very rare, But it makes sense as long as you have a lot of other talent around him.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
exactly...
I’d say as far as general ceiling for college vs. high school, obviously your college guys are going to be “safer” because well, they’re closer to the show. But another factor is injury. This can cut both ways:
1) College guys that don’t have a history of injury gives you that much more of a “safe” bet because a large portion of prospects (especially pitchers) get hurt at some point. So you have an extra 3-4 years where you’re “gambling” that their injury isn’t big. Pitchers are always a ticking time bomb for an injury; always. The human body was not meant to throw like we do.
2) On the flip side, a lot of college programs really overwork their guys, or teach them bad habits. A lot of that is the nature of the college season/schedule, and how every game late in the season is a “must win” situation. But it still exists, in most college programs. A college coach is generally (and I don’t mean to put a bad light on college coaches here; most of them do a wonderful job) going to put his team over 1 player’s arm. That’s just human nature too. But then you also have certain programs who have poor track records in their teaching. Stanford, for example, is constantly blasted by Keith Law and other scouts for a poor hitting program. So in a case like that, you don’t get to “mold” your draft pick as easily as you can with a guy fresh out of high school. I’d contend, on the other side of the coin, that a program like Vanderbilt (who I’ve had the pleasure of interacting with and seeing up close for a few years now) is as good as any at both giving an honest college effort on the field and preparing kids incredibly well for the next level. It works both ways, and it’s up to the scouts to gather all the necessary information they can on each specific college and program.
and for the record...
if I had a star high school baseball kid, there’s no question where I’d send him; Vanderbilt in a heartbeat. Great location, great academic school, amazing coach, support system, facilities, and solid team, and a growing reputation (again, from Law and other scouts in the business) as the best track record at preparing kids for the pros and developing them along the way. Quite a track record they’ve had in recent years with Price, Minor, Alvarez, etc. And just wait; this class (TWELVE guys drafted fairly high in 2011) is going to be the best yet.
I wish the Twins had the chance to draft Sonny Gray or had drafted Navery Moore, but I like our chances with Corey Williams’ future.
The problem with this
is that outside of the first round, most of the college picks are going to be much lower upside. I’m OK with taking high upside college guys, but they won’t be there for the later picks.
by diehardtwinsfan on Jan 11, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
its way early and a lot could change
but they are possibly looking at a choice between Mark Appel a polished college pitcher who in my view is somewhat like Kyle Gibson or Lucas Giolito who is a high schooler already hitting 100 on the gun who also has good secondary pitches. Im not going to be mad if they take the quick route with Appel but I sure would love to see them take the highest possible upside guy and get a ace potential guy who might take another year or 2.
first-worst-first?
by holymackerel on Jan 13, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
well, it's more like 3-4 more years...
i’d rather take appel, personally. mauer’s window is closing.
If the Astros pass on Appel, he's a no brainer
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Moar picks!
So, as of right now the Twins hav 5 picks in the top 75 (2, 33, 43, 65, & 74). Am I right in thinking the Twins would get #97 as well? Is that 6 in the top 100? That’s a lot, even without the Capps compensation pick (which I still would have preferred to get).
Yes, most of your picks are a couple years away from high A ball, but a draft like this can really help restock a minor league system for the future.
Are we going have to draft analysis articles
on some players that could potentially be drafted by the Twins in the #2 slot? I think it would be an interesting series in which we lay out some potential candidates and then vote on them.
I don’t know crap about the prospects but thought I would throw the idea out there…
General question
Is this draft supposed to be a good one? Top heavy? Deep? …not looking for details just generalities and hopefully a glimmer of hope in January.
not very good at all..
one of the worst in a while, according to most. whereas last year’s draft was generally seen as the best draft in a decade or so (i lamented about our lost opportunity compensation picks in last year’s draft a month or two ago; FOUR of them!). and yes, a lot can change, but right now there’s no “consensus” #1 guy, but there are a few solid, safe guys at the top, as we’ve mentioned above. might be a relative crapshoot with the twins’ other picks after #2 though.
Small nit
It was actually three picks. There was no way they would offer Fuentes arbitration. If they had, he would have accepted. They should have offered Guerrier and Rauch arbitration though, which would have amounted to another first rounder and two more sandwich picks.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
ya, we've been over that one...
Fuentes is definitely a question mark. Either way, big mistakes. Terry Ryan’s remarks last month about “not valuing draft picks” re: FA’s were incredibly disturbing to me.
Maybe it was regarding the 2012 draft only?
Maybe because this draft is supposed to be thinner than most, he’s not valuing picks in it much.
Either way, I’m not as bothered by the remark as you are. I mean, a prospect is a player that has a chance of panning out and becoming a player who can produce in the major leagues, right? A player proved to contribute in the majors is more valuable because they are more likely to play well. Where I’m going with this is that Prospect = Maybe becomes a good MLB player. Well, Draft Pick = Maybe becomes a prospect. You expect the #2 pick to become a major leaguer, but aside from him, the rest of them are shots in the dark.
There are few things in life I love more than baseball and roller derby.
Interesting take
If it is a weak draft then the #57 pick in this year’s draft is not all that valuable. The Twins have had the #2 pick in a weak draft before and it turned into jack squat. Funny that the later picks Kubel and Maholm turned out to be the big leaguers.
ya, but it's not a question of that to me...
just because a draft pick isn’t as valuable as a major league player doesn’t mean they have no value.
and secondly, it’s not the difference between a player and a pick; it’s the difference between the value of 2 major league players and the value of draft picks. you can have a comparable major league player (as we did with willingham vs. cuddyer) for a comparable contract and still gain draft picks. that should be the goal. it’s just shrewdly milking the system. we’ve wasted at least 4 top-60 draft picks over the last 2 years for no good reason.
from some of the stuff ive read
its a lot more prep heavy than college but considered somewhat weak overall defiantly not like last year which was stacked.
first-worst-first?
by holymackerel on Jan 13, 2012 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
I have updated this as it appears the top 15 picks are indeed still protected, not top 10...
as had been previously reported.
Upside for the Twins; all of their 2nd through 5th picks are now 1 spot higher, as noted.
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