Twins Starting Pitching Comparables

by Xeifrank on Jan 12, 2012 11:27 PM EST

Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Twins top starting pitchers: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Scott Blackburn and Jason Marquis. The rotation was taken from MLB Depth Charts. One thing that stands out to me (non Twins subject matter expert) is the number of ground ball pitchers the Twins have on their staff.

In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Twins starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Twins starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.80
1	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
2	Ryan Dempster	8.60	3.62	1.27	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
3	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
4	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
5	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.40	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.70	0.91
6	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
7	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
8	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51	Madison Bumgarner	7.90	2.05	1.30
9	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
10	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
11	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16	Matt Garza	7.77	2.80	1.04
12	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.40	1.50	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
13	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
14	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02
15	Matt Moore	9.25	3.00	1.13	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
16	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.90	1.02	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
17	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
18	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
19	A.J. Burnett	7.60	3.85	1.35	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
20	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
21	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99	Ricky Nolasco	7.30	1.91	1.22
22	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
23	Derek Holland	7.61	3.20	1.30	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
24	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
25	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.80
1	Mark Buehrle	4.50	2.04	1.23	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
2	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
3	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.20
4	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
5	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
6	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
7	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3.00	1.40
8	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
9	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
10	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
11	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
12	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.80	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.90	1.72
13	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.10
14	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
15	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.20	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.50
16	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
17	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.50	0.97	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
18	Kyle Lohse	5.30	2.47	1.13	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
19	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.50	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
20	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
21	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.50	0.97
22	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.90	1.72	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
23	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51	Kyle Lohse	5.30	2.47	1.13
24	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3.00	1.40	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
25	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.10
1	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
2	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
3	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
4	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.90	1.72
5	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
6	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
7	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3.00	1.40
8	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
9	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.50
10	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
11	Trevor Cahill	5.90	3.23	2.07
12	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
13	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
14	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.10	1.41
15	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.80
16	Mitch Talbot	5.00	3.91	1.34
17	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
18	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.20
19	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
20	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
21	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.50
22	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
23	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
24	Matt Harrison	6.00	2.94	1.44
25	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43

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Comments

That would be the twins pitching philosphy they love strike throwing groudballers

Part of last years disaster was the fact that they fielded a poor defensive infield behind their pitch to contact guys, hopefully the addition of Carroll and having Trevor Plouffe very far away from shortstop will turn that around in 2012.
Its not just the current staff though they have always had a lot of ground ballers about the only guys I can think of in my time as a twins fan that have gone against that mold are Johan Santana, Fransico Liriano, Matt Garza, and Scott Baker and within that group Santana and Garza where traded Baker is successful as a fly ball pitcher so they havent messed with him and they have been at war with Liriano to try and get him to pitch to contact more possibly being one of the factors in his inconstancy since he wants to strike people out.
In my opinion this is why they constantly went out of the playoffs quick these type of pitchers are nice innings eaters who can win you a division but come playoff time when you are matching up with another teams ace you are in a big hole throwing a Nick Blackburn or Carl Pavano out there. Hopefully they change the organizational philosophy some and start to target ace upside guys it will be somewhat telling with what they do in the draft this year if given the chance to take Mark Appel or Lucas Giolito it would be nice to see them take the fireballer Giolito.

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Jan 13, 2012 1:06 AM EST reply actions

They need to rethink the philosophy

Groundballers worked when they had a good fielding infield and played on turf in the Metrodome. Now they play in one of the worst parks for HR power in the entire league. They need to deploy two centerfielders in LF and CF (Revere and Span) and let Liriano throw fastballs up the ladder once in a while.

Carroll will be a huge upgrade over Nishioka and Plouffe at SS. Morneau is better than Cuddyer at 1B. Casilla is better than Cuddyer, Hughes or Nishioka at 2B. Valencia can play better at 3B than he did last season. Revere is a huge upgrade on Delmon in LF. Willingham is a push in RF. A healthy Span and Mauer will be welcome additions as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pitching staff allow one fewer run per game just due to the defensive upgrades.