Here is a look at some of the top comparables to the Twins top starting pitchers: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Carl Pavano, Scott Blackburn and Jason Marquis. The rotation was taken from MLB Depth Charts. One thing that stands out to me (non Twins subject matter expert) is the number of ground ball pitchers the Twins have on their staff.
In this exercise I used 2010-2011 data, looking at the skilled stats of K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB, while coming up with a similarity score based on these three stats for each Twins starting pitcher. The cutoff was having pitched at least 150 IP as a starter over the last two years. Here is the top 25 list for each Twins starter. There is some bias when comparing NL pitchers with AL pitchers due to the slightly inflated strikeout rate for NL pitchers who don't have to pitch to a DH, so feel free to make a mental adjustment for those pitchers. If you wanted to take something like this to the next level, you could look at age, contract status, handedness etc... but I've chosen to look at these three stats which are highly controlled by a pitchers skill level.
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Liriano | 8.62 | 3.64 | 1.66 | Scott Baker | 7.99 | 2.24 | 0.80 | ||
| 1 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 8.65 | 3.73 | 1.41 | James Shields | 8.21 | 2.29 | 1.18 | |
| 2 | Ryan Dempster | 8.60 | 3.62 | 1.27 | Jered Weaver | 8.43 | 2.15 | 0.71 | |
| 3 | Jorge de la Rosa | 8.22 | 3.84 | 1.55 | Chris Capuano | 7.88 | 2.61 | 1.05 | |
| 4 | Jon Lester | 9.17 | 3.56 | 1.65 | Ted Lilly | 7.55 | 2.21 | 0.64 | |
| 5 | Gio Gonzalez | 8.23 | 4.09 | 1.40 | Ian Kennedy | 7.92 | 2.70 | 0.91 | |
| 6 | Felipe Paulino | 8.37 | 3.97 | 1.13 | Jake Peavy | 7.59 | 2.43 | 0.99 | |
| 7 | Bud Norris | 8.85 | 3.89 | 1.06 | Colby Lewis | 8.19 | 2.71 | 0.77 | |
| 8 | C.J. Wilson | 7.92 | 3.52 | 1.51 | Madison Bumgarner | 7.90 | 2.05 | 1.30 | |
| 9 | Wandy Rodriguez | 8.02 | 3.19 | 1.39 | Josh Beckett | 8.17 | 2.72 | 1.09 | |
| 10 | Anibal Sanchez | 8.26 | 3.08 | 1.21 | Homer Bailey | 7.69 | 2.73 | 1.07 | |
| 11 | David Price | 8.44 | 2.96 | 1.16 | Matt Garza | 7.77 | 2.80 | 1.04 | |
| 12 | Tim Lincecum | 9.45 | 3.40 | 1.50 | Shaun Marcum | 7.34 | 2.27 | 0.88 | |
| 13 | Chad Billingsley | 7.66 | 3.63 | 1.44 | Dan Haren | 7.76 | 1.66 | 1.05 | |
| 14 | Yovani Gallardo | 9.34 | 3.07 | 1.29 | Max Scherzer | 8.25 | 2.90 | 1.02 | |
| 15 | Matt Moore | 9.25 | 3.00 | 1.13 | Tommy Hanson | 8.52 | 2.76 | 0.99 | |
| 16 | Max Scherzer | 8.25 | 2.90 | 1.02 | CC Sabathia | 8.09 | 2.56 | 1.51 | |
| 17 | Jhoulys Chacin | 7.66 | 4.04 | 1.83 | Roy Oswalt | 7.34 | 2.27 | 1.25 | |
| 18 | Tom Gorzelanny | 7.91 | 3.77 | 0.89 | Daniel Hudson | 7.18 | 2.18 | 0.98 | |
| 19 | A.J. Burnett | 7.60 | 3.85 | 1.35 | Matt Cain | 7.2 | 2.51 | 0.91 | |
| 20 | Felix Hernandez | 8.45 | 2.55 | 1.72 | Cole Hamels | 8.62 | 2.24 | 1.37 | |
| 21 | Tommy Hanson | 8.52 | 2.76 | 0.99 | Ricky Nolasco | 7.30 | 1.91 | 1.22 | |
| 22 | Jonathon Niese | 7.78 | 2.89 | 1.65 | David Price | 8.44 | 2.96 | 1.16 | |
| 23 | Derek Holland | 7.61 | 3.20 | 1.30 | Bartolo Colon | 7.18 | 2.18 | 1.24 | |
| 24 | Josh Beckett | 8.17 | 2.72 | 1.09 | Justin Verlander | 8.88 | 2.42 | 0.98 | |
| 25 | Mat Latos | 8.88 | 2.66 | 1.07 | Adam Wainwright | 8.32 | 2.19 | 1.68 |
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carl Pavano | 4.45 | 1.56 | 1.64 | Nick Blackburn | 4.17 | 2.76 | 1.80 | ||
| 1 | Mark Buehrle | 4.50 | 2.04 | 1.23 | Brad Penny | 4.13 | 2.69 | 1.58 | |
| 2 | Joel Pineiro | 4.69 | 2.17 | 1.71 | Dustin Moseley | 4.74 | 3.05 | 1.51 | |
| 3 | Jeff Francis | 4.95 | 1.96 | 1.38 | Brad Bergesen | 4.56 | 2.79 | 1.20 | |
| 4 | Rick Porcello | 4.91 | 2.19 | 1.65 | Joel Pineiro | 4.69 | 2.17 | 1.71 | |
| 5 | Tommy Hunter | 4.69 | 1.98 | 1.01 | Kyle Kendrick | 4.42 | 2.24 | 1.17 | |
| 6 | Kyle Kendrick | 4.42 | 2.24 | 1.17 | Joe Saunders | 4.81 | 2.84 | 1.23 | |
| 7 | Jeff Karstens | 5.19 | 1.82 | 1.22 | Mike Pelfrey | 4.95 | 3.00 | 1.40 | |
| 8 | Josh Tomlin | 4.98 | 1.51 | 0.82 | Rick Porcello | 4.91 | 2.19 | 1.65 | |
| 9 | Bronson Arroyo | 4.97 | 2.26 | 0.99 | Mark Buehrle | 4.5 | 2.04 | 1.23 | |
| 10 | Doug Fister | 5.55 | 1.62 | 1.43 | Aaron Cook | 4.35 | 3.58 | 2.32 | |
| 11 | Brad Penny | 4.13 | 2.69 | 1.58 | John Lannan | 4.86 | 3.43 | 2.03 | |
| 12 | Nick Blackburn | 4.17 | 2.76 | 1.80 | Paul Maholm | 5.15 | 2.90 | 1.72 | |
| 13 | Livan Hernandez | 4.95 | 2.56 | 1.07 | Jason Marquis | 5.05 | 3.16 | 2.10 | |
| 14 | Dallas Braden | 5.47 | 2.05 | 0.99 | Livan Hernandez | 4.95 | 2.56 | 1.07 | |
| 15 | Brad Bergesen | 4.56 | 2.79 | 1.20 | Zach Duke | 5.23 | 2.66 | 1.50 | |
| 16 | R.A. Dickey | 5.57 | 2.24 | 1.74 | Fausto Carmona | 5.26 | 2.98 | 1.92 | |
| 17 | Rodrigo Lopez | 5.13 | 2.50 | 0.97 | Jeff Francis | 4.95 | 1.96 | 1.38 | |
| 18 | Kyle Lohse | 5.30 | 2.47 | 1.13 | Tommy Hunter | 4.69 | 1.98 | 1.01 | |
| 19 | Zach Duke | 5.23 | 2.66 | 1.50 | Carl Pavano | 4.45 | 1.56 | 1.64 | |
| 20 | Joe Saunders | 4.81 | 2.84 | 1.23 | Bronson Arroyo | 4.97 | 2.26 | 0.99 | |
| 21 | Jeremy Guthrie | 5.34 | 2.48 | 0.99 | Rodrigo Lopez | 5.13 | 2.50 | 0.97 | |
| 22 | Paul Maholm | 5.15 | 2.90 | 1.72 | Ivan Nova | 5.45 | 3.17 | 1.82 | |
| 23 | Dustin Moseley | 4.74 | 3.05 | 1.51 | Kyle Lohse | 5.30 | 2.47 | 1.13 | |
| 24 | Mike Pelfrey | 4.95 | 3.00 | 1.40 | Jeremy Guthrie | 5.34 | 2.48 | 0.99 | |
| 25 | Freddy Garcia | 5.47 | 2.65 | 0.98 | Jake Westbrook | 5.41 | 3.29 | 2.35 |
| Rank | Name | K/9 | BB/9 | GB/FB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Marquis | 5.05 | 3.16 | 2.10 | |
| 1 | Fausto Carmona | 5.26 | 2.98 | 1.92 |
| 2 | John Lannan | 4.86 | 3.43 | 2.03 |
| 3 | Jake Westbrook | 5.41 | 3.29 | 2.35 |
| 4 | Paul Maholm | 5.15 | 2.90 | 1.72 |
| 5 | Ivan Nova | 5.45 | 3.17 | 1.82 |
| 6 | Dustin Moseley | 4.74 | 3.05 | 1.51 |
| 7 | Mike Pelfrey | 4.95 | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| 8 | Zach Britton | 5.66 | 3.62 | 1.86 |
| 9 | Zach Duke | 5.23 | 2.66 | 1.50 |
| 10 | Aaron Cook | 4.35 | 3.58 | 2.32 |
| 11 | Trevor Cahill | 5.90 | 3.23 | 2.07 |
| 12 | Chris Volstad | 5.79 | 2.88 | 1.62 |
| 13 | Joe Saunders | 4.81 | 2.84 | 1.23 |
| 14 | Kevin Correia | 5.77 | 3.10 | 1.41 |
| 15 | Nick Blackburn | 4.17 | 2.76 | 1.80 |
| 16 | Mitch Talbot | 5.00 | 3.91 | 1.34 |
| 17 | Rick Porcello | 4.91 | 2.19 | 1.65 |
| 18 | Brad Bergesen | 4.56 | 2.79 | 1.20 |
| 19 | R.A. Dickey | 5.57 | 2.24 | 1.74 |
| 20 | Joel Pineiro | 4.69 | 2.17 | 1.71 |
| 21 | Jon Garland | 5.81 | 3.79 | 1.50 |
| 22 | Brad Penny | 4.13 | 2.69 | 1.58 |
| 23 | Tim Stauffer | 6.04 | 2.56 | 1.89 |
| 24 | Matt Harrison | 6.00 | 2.94 | 1.44 |
| 25 | Charlie Morton | 6.05 | 3.69 | 2.43 |
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