I think i'm in love...
by chatter on Jan 13, 2012 12:17 PM EST
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With STATS. Actually, i'm not. I think stats can be skewed this way and that way. I'm not saying that some stats aren't helpful in evaluating a player, i just think that they are less accurate as a predictor of future success. There have been so many highly touted players that for whatever reason don't make it or are under whelming and on the flip side, there are players that inexpliciably seem to play well at all the right times.
What stats do you focus in on with pitchers when you evaluate talent? Do you make any adjustment based on the defense of the team and the ballpark they will play in? Look for certain tendencies e.g., innings eater, ground ball rate, k rate, bb rate, calm composure, etc ?
How about hitters? Are you more concerned with certain offensive numbers straight across the board? Are you evaluating by position? Do you just look for a guy to fill a role and disregard the "prototypical" position numbers? What is best? Why? Can you back it up with evidence?
How do you think the Twins, as an organization, have fared at putting together a cohesive team for 2012 based on your evaluation of the numbers and any intangibles you believe exist? It's not fair to include injuries, because the team cannot anticipate injuries. Although you could even argue that in some cases, really.
Lets get a board going of the most important stats that you believe translate into wins, not ones that just look pretty. This outta be fun!
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I wish there was option 3
I think the games of great pitching And hitting are the best.
by twinscrazy_german on Jan 13, 2012 1:00 PM EST reply actions
haha...
yep, great hitting and pitching are both desirable.
On TV, great hitting is more fun
At a live baseball game, I prefer pitching. A 1-0 game is dramatic with every pitch. So’s an 11-10 game, but it lasts four hours and yer butt gets sore.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jan 14, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
Whatever the score...
..I agree, a close game is just more exciting. I do like the Twinkies to whoop somebody occasionally too. Primarily the Tigers. I wish the Yankees. They seem to have our number and i can’t figure out why.
What is this 1990?
Most people who “don’t like stats” actually love stats… they just prefer the stats they learned when they were a kid to the “new” stats.
And some stats don’t claim to demonstrate value, they measure something very specific that might only show one small facet of what a player does on the field. So there’s many oppurtunities to knock down strawmen here.
by DavidRF on Jan 13, 2012 2:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I agree--e.g. bubble gum cards have had stats on the back since forever
Those particular stats are just not very helpful in evaluating a players’ contribution to winning. And they’re especially poor in predicting future performance.
The whole point of SABR is not to introduce stats for their own sake, it’s to improve on the stats commonly reported (to this day). If chatter doesn’t understand that, s/he haven’t been paying attention around here.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I'd agree, Buying runs and OB% in the movie Moneyball, or undervalued players that cost less for similar output
seemed to work well in the early 2000’s now i think clearly, Beane is looking for the next stat or group of stats that are undervalued and he’s trying to expose the next market inefficiency of the MLB game.
In general, I think the Twins FO is better or further ahead of Oakland’s simply because of how our players are developed and the talent we have compared ot Oak. in the respective organizations. And i like the organization’s philosiphy on numerous fronts, pitching and the strive for minimal BB% rates and the emphasis on pitching to contact and not neccesirily to have the highest K per 9 IP …. Jeremy Hellickson of the T.B. Rays is one heck of a pitcher and will be for a long time, he was arguably one of the 10-15 best SP’s in all of baseball last season and he had a 5.5 K per 9 IP.
Strikeouts are overatted if you’re a pitcher that has 4+ pitches and can mix them in and locate them effectively without neccearily the biggest velocity.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 13, 2012 6:37 PM EST up reply actions
so educate me...
…i never claimed to know much about this stuff. I thought this post might get some discussion going, just seems the discussion went negative, again.
It's a big field
Since Bill James invented the field a long time ago, much has been done to improve baseball analytics. I recommend you do some research. And I certainly am no authority on it. But, after decades of great work by minds far smarter than mine, there are a few relatively easy things to learn. Please don’t stop here, but this should get you started.
1. FIP: ERA is deceptive. A lot depends on the fielding behind a pitcher and his luck, which are beyond his . What he can control are really three things: walks, strikeouts and home runs. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is the stat that combines these. xFIP normalizes FIP across lots of other factors, such as park effects.
2. OPS : Batting Average is very flawed. A hitter can hit 10 balls in a row hard right at the short stop. Another hitter can get 10 hits in a row on Texas leaguers. Hitters can improve their luck by walking more and hitting more balls over the fence or in the gaps. On Base Plus Slugging is a pretty good measure of what a hitter has control over. It’s not perfect, but it’s much better than BA>
3. OPS+: A lot of what hitters face is dependent on other factors, such as park effects, position, league and times. OPS+ normalizes OPS to control these variables so that, no matter what position a player plays or league a hitter hits in, 100 is the average. In this way, OPS+ is an easy way to rate one player against another no matter what position or league they play in.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
And these are great tools for front office personnel
Or fans looking to understand the game in a more complex manner.
When you read, though, about people as diverse as Malcolm X or Alan Dershowitz or Doris Goodwin ("Wait ‘Til Next Year) growing up, calculating their favorite players’ BA in their heads after every at-bat, it’s not hard to see the appeal of old-timey stats. No, they aren’t what GMs should base decisions on. But kids can do them in their heads! (And they could do basic OPS in their heads, too, which is why it’s a good one.)
And when you’re explaining the game to kids, or newbies, those stats aren’t just an easy way to describe players, but to get people interested in how the whole game is predicated on failing less often than others do. It gets them past the “nothing ever happens in baseball” first impression and helps them see how something is always happening. (Plus, for kids, tying math into sports they enjoy is a pretty cool idea in itself.)
I love the old stats and hope they’re displayed on stadium JumboTrons forever. Not because they mean much. But because every fan can get them.(Maybe JumboTrons should cycle displaying the old with the new, as a gateway to the more advanced stuff.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jan 14, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
The counting stats will never go anywhere
People will always count things. AB, HR, R, RBI, H, BB, K, SB, etc.
Some of them might get de-emphasized in analysis, but they still have to be counted as they are the inputs to the advanced metrics.
I guess “hits” isn’t as big of a deal as it was 30 years ago. Ichiro breaking the single season hit record would have been a much bigger deal back then. But they’ll never stop counting hits.
I’ll never understand people who post something like this on a site that links to FanGraphs in damn near every front page post.
If your main interest in reading this site is predicting outcomes with the most accuracy
Then you can’t be a Twins fan, as they don’t have the best team in baseball.
Of course you’re a Twins fan, or you wouldn’t be here. So you’re not entirely objective! You just like paying attention to different things than clutter does. Some people watch guys who seem to do well “when it counts,” others enjoy attempting to rank player contributions using testable formulas. Some like baseball because it has fond memories for them, or they love the smell of ballpark food or dig the outfielder’s tight butt (a friend who enjoyed the right-field bleachers at Target Field is Very Sad about losing Cuddyer.)
clutter’s just trying to start a conversation about what he/she finds interesting to talk about. I think that’s what people should do on these sites. And that’s my Dumb Opinion.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jan 14, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
sorry, "chatter" not "clutter"
I was half-thinking about the Wild’s Cal Clutterbuck for some reason.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jan 14, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
no problem.
And thank you. I am here just trying to learn and talk about interesting things. You are exactly right. Not here to offend anyone.
I like players that
show the grit and leadership needed to win. Knowing how to win is the most important quality any player can possess. They must give it their all and get after it on a daily basis. The season is a long grind and only a real man with true mental toughness can survive. Stats are meaningless. 60% of the time they are twisted to fit an argument… every time.
by archie2227 on Jan 13, 2012 3:05 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I ran out of cliches too soon
I give myself a C in strawman building
I liked it. I read it as a totally serious reply.
by Brady Eyestone on Jan 13, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Take it one day at a time
We know what it takes to win
Stats don’t win games, players win games
All we care about is playing the game the right way
If you have the right approach, you’ll succeed
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I could feel the wind
From Souhan ’s nodding head
by clutterheart on Jan 13, 2012 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
This post is about five different things
And still has no point to it.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 13, 2012 3:37 PM EST reply actions
I imagine
it’s a ‘gotcha’ post for stats. Somebody posts their favorite stat for evaluating something which opens up the chance to post about the outlier that ‘disproves’ the stat.
Just trying to prove a point
I don’t take my posts too seriously. A select group of people seem to. They act like what they write here matters on some grander scale than simple entertainment. I like to make a point or two that i actually believe, but for the most part, it’s just fun to debate an arguement because it’s all conjecture. Nobody is actually right or wrong here. How would you prove it, stats? Haha. It’s just one person’s opinion. I like hearing people’s opinions on some things just to see where people are really at. We’re not in the front office pulling the trigger on trades, so why blast someone for having a little fun? I think if anyone gets to the point of anger when reading someone’s opinion(a post) they need to take a closer look at themselves.
What point are you making?
You say:
“I think stats can be skewed this way and that way”
So give in an example. Why don’t you state what stats you like and why you like them. If you really want a discussion that is the way to do it.
by clutterheart on Jan 13, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Anything can be skewed this way and that way...
Its all about interpretation. You can’t really blame the stats for bad interpretation.
When people complain that certain stats have certain biases. Well, experts know about those biases. That’s why there is more than one stat. You can collect many numbers to paint a better picture of a player.
Is it right to be skeptical of the uber-stats which aim to consolidate many numbers into just one number which can be sorted? Yes! Because no algorithm is perfect. That’s why there is more than one uber-stat. Each of those have their biases and experts are aware of those too. You can collect many uberstats and that collection can be used to paint a better picture of a player.
Stats are tools which are used to help people. They aren’t intended to replace the human brain.
What stats i like...
…wins! That is my favorite. As for the others, i don’t know enough about their consistency. I was looking to learn what educated fans( i’m not) think are the best stats. One’s that aren’t skewed as much. I am going to look into cmathewson’s above post because he gave actual stats he thinks are reputable.
I like XFIP for pitchers because it really shows how they're properly viewed across baseball regardless of how many runs their offense scores or their own defense gives up.
I also love IsoD% for hitters, to go along with K/BB and overall K rates for both hitters and pitchers.
Sierra and WRC+ are some more advanced metrics that really show what you may want in a pitcher/hitter well i think.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 13, 2012 6:29 PM EST reply actions
Now that's a helpful post!
I will have to check XFIP and IsoD% out. Thanks for the post!
Yeah Francisco Liriano is a decent example
In his shortened 2006 season he had an XFIP of 2.38
in 2008 – 4.25
in 2009 – 4.48
in 2010 – 2.95 (easily his best full season to date)
in 2011 – 4.52 (arguably his worst season to date)
It is much more reasonable to look at this statistic to determine a pitchers future performance going forward than to simply look at ERA, or WHIP or HR’s allowed.
Which i guess doesn’t bode well with Liriano for 2012, however i think becasuse his situation is so specific and never truely defined with the injuries and rehabb and proper excercies in the off-season I think his is much more of a case by case or year to year basis.
In otherwords, I think he’ll be better in 2012 than last season, but no where near 2006 (obviously) and probably not even nearly as effecitive as 2010.
The difference in plain old FIP and XFIP is that XFIP takes the average amount of HR’s allowed by the league’s pitchers and puts that in the calculation instead of the pitchers actual HR rate, because of park factors and the often times large difference in year to year HR rates given up by a specific pitcher.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 13, 2012 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
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