Roy Oswalt v. Jason Marquis v. Edwin Jackson

by Brady Eyestone on Jan 15, 2012 2:15 AM EST

Okay guys. This is probably way more information than anyone will ever need in the history of anything. Ever, but after reading Lindsay Guentzel's tweet about Roy Oswalt, I decided to do some research. And I think I went kind of insane with the research I did.

While going to FanGraph's to get the nessecary information for this project, I noticed something I'd never noticed before on FanGraph's. Pitches thrown. And what the result of those pitches were. In terms of balls and strikes.

So, I made a spreadsheet, and I wanted to see, on average, how many pitches they use per inning, per groundball, flyball, hit, walk, for each batter they face, and for how many they use per base runner they put on.

Then, I wanted to see how many base runners they create (using only hits and walks) per inning and what percentage of batters turn into base runners.

Then, finally I wanted to see what their strike to ball ratio is. Why? For fun. I will post a link to a Google Docs spreadsheet for you all to peruse. Then what FanGraph's says with their graphs...

Why did I use these three? Marquis was used because the Twins signed him. Oswalt because of Guentzel's tweet, and Jackson because of the clamoring for the Twins to sign him. Keep in mind this spreadsheet is far from perfect and still probably needs some work.

Here is the link to my spreadsheet.

Basically, the chart says that not only is Roy Oswalt more economical with his pitches, he gets fewer line drives and fly balls balls than either Marquis or Jackson. He also gets outs on fewer pitches, and throws fewer pitches every inning. A significantly smaller amount of the batters he faces turn into base runners, and his strike to ball ratio is heads and shoulders better than the other two. In almost every sense of the word, Oswalt is a superior pitcher to Marquis and Jackson.

The graphs on FanGraphs back this up. Here is the link for the Fangraph's info.

I guess this didn't really tell me anything I didn't already know, but I think the pitch to pitch tendency is pretty cool.

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I think your right in saying it doesnt show much new but good and interesting analysis

in my mind Oswalt is the superior pitcher based on what he has done but when comparing the 3 price, age, production, expected production, and current trends come into the question. I would be all for Oswalt at 8 million a year would be a great fit but we know it wont happen with the payroll the way it is. E-Jax is going to be overpaid he is, in my mind, Liriano with a bit more consistency and less upside at his max. I read somewhere he developed a change up with St.Louis and that improved his production but fact is he has been good when on and bad when off. The kind of contract Boras is seeking for him and the weak overall starting pitching market, especially this late in the off season, means someone will take a flyer on a big contract for him and they will be paying for a big risk. Marquis on the other hand we didn’t give much money to and really dont have to expect much from even though he could well be valuable. He was solid until his injury and isn’t expected to be more than a 4th or 5th starter here so if he can put up a 4 era and be a ground ball machine he could be a good innings eater at the back of the rotation and if he doesn’t preform there isn’t much lost. Like it or not this was all we were going to get with the payroll and Marquis was a decent gamble for the spot they were looking to fill and really they avoided 2 big ifs with Jackson’s preforming and Oswalt’s age and exclusive previous NL experience.

first-worst-first?

by holymackerel on Jan 15, 2012 4:25 AM EST reply actions