Twins Avoid Arbitration With Perkins and Liriano, Exchange Figures With Casilla
In terms of arbitration cases, the Twins have had a pretty easy and low-key winter. We're used to them dealing with four, five, seven cases, but this year it's been just three: Glen Perkins, Francisco Liriano, and Alexi Casilla. It's no surprise then that Minnesota is well on its way to securing these players to one-year contracts.
Perkins, in his second arbitration-eligible season, gets a raise from $700,000 in 2011 to $1.55 million in 2012. He more than doubles his salary, but after the year he had he's now the only member of the bullpen who can be tabbed to have anything more than an "okay" season. The Twins need him to be healthy and effective.
Liriano, in his final arbitration-eligible season, gets a smaller raise. He made $4.3 million last season, and will earn $5.5 million in 2012. Assistant General Manager Rob Antony summed it up pretty well (from the Strib):
"It's important to us because if we want to win some games we need to have him pitch more like 2010,'' said Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony, who negotiated the deals.
"The better the season he has the more attractive he is to us and to anyone else in case he ends up on the free agent market. It's a big year for him.''
It's difficult to tell what Liriano's future holds, especially in regards to how that future relates to the Twins. If he's absolutely terrible, or if he's one of the best five pitchers in the American League like he was in 2010, it's possible that he hits the open market. If he's somewhere in between, it's probably more likely that he could stay in Minnesota.
That brings us to Casilla, who is in his second arbitration-eligible season and is the only one of the three unable to reach an agreement before yesterday's deadline to exchange figures. While there's still time to negotiate, as of today they're a little ways apart: the Twins offered $1.065, while Casilla's camp has countered with $1.75 million.
Casilla hit .260/.322/.368 last season, with a pair of homers, 21 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 97 games. After making $865,000 in 2011, it's hard to imagine how that performance justifies more than doubling his salary, but it's also how the game is played.
Most likely, with roughly $700,000 separating the two sides, they will settle around the midway point prior to heading into arbitration. The Twins have a tendency to agree to a number slightly towards the player's side of the figures, so it wouldn't be unthinkable to see Casilla sign his one-year contract at $1.45 or $1.5 million.
Arbitration hearings take place between February 1 and February 21, which means the Twins and Casilla have a little bit of time to hammer out a deal.
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Liriano is about $500k cheaper than I expected
Looks like they can sign Qualls/Wheeler/Wuertz for $1.5M and be at $99M for the season. If they can find a home for Blackburn they can afford Roy Oswalt. He could be the “Kenny Rogers” signing of the year.
don't get your hopes up
Wuertz (or any solid reliever) + Oswalt – Blackburn (I actually like Blacky, just not like Oswalt) = wayyyy too happy and that means it won’t happen
REPORTER: What do you think is happening to the team?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: The ship be sinking.
REPORTER: How far can it sink?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: Sky's the limit.
by uofmike on Jan 18, 2012 1:04 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
can we please just sign Liriano to an extension now?
we need starters for 2013 and beyond and he’s our best bet to be our best starter in those years. sign him now before he goes out and has a big year and prices himself outside of our market this offseason. please.
If Liriano goes nuts and has a big year
Maybe the Twins get something for him in August. Personally, I think that ship has sailed, hit a rock, and capsized, but hopefully I’m wrong.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Jan 18, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Let's see where he is in July
The year isn’t over yet. I don’t blame them for standing pat right now.
What kind of extension do you give him?
Honestly, I have no idea what he’s worth on the free agent market right now. Say he’s feeling REALLY pessimistic about his chances and takes a 3-year $15M extension (which seems really low). Then he goes out and pitches like he did last year. Suddenly you’re stuck with another Nick Blackburn deal, having basically set $15 million on fire.
Signing Liriano to an extension is certainly something with a high potential reward, but it’s also very high-risk, given the fact that he was completely awful last year.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Maybe
we guarantee him three years, $12 million, and then put in a boatload of escalators. $500,000 for starting 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 games each year. $500,000 for reaching 100 IP, 125 IP, 150 IP, 175 IP and 200 IP. Offer $250,000 bonuses for finishing in the top 5 in the league in IP, K, wins. Offer another $250,000 for every award including Gold Glove, Cy Young or MVP finishes.
That way he’s still guaranteed a payday even if he struggles, but the Twins are also showing faith by promising him a much bigger contract if he could earn it. If over all three years he reaches each of the starts and innings pitched levels, he’s making $9 million per year instead of $4 million, plus award finishes.
I don’t know though, to be honest. Even $9 million per year seems low compared to what someone might pay him on the open market, and even if you increase the escalators from $500K to $750K I’m not sure that’s enough.
extremely low...
I’d say he’ll get something like $15-18M/yr for 4 years on the open market if he has a 2012 like his 2010, which I expect. I really think we’d be signing him low right now. I’d offer him something like 4 years/$40M, which I view as a decent risk/reward for both sides. If Liriano’s right he’s worth almost double that. If he’s not, he’s worth half that.
and for those that sneeze at the 4/$40M figure..
just think what we’re paying Carl Pavano right now.
That's a LOT of money
You’re talking about committing forty million dollars to a guy who has put up an above-average ERA one of the last three years, is coming off a season when he put up the worst strikeout and walk rates of his career, and last I saw had an ERA of like 12 in winter ball. Yeah, he’s worth a lot more than that if he has a 2010-type year, but that’s a hell of a gamble.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
worthwhile gamble for this club IMO...
we don’t have any ace-level pitching prospects coming anytime soon; Liriano can be one if they would just not kill him innings-wise, which they’ve done throughout his career. also, ERA is hardly a good barometer. he was dominant in 2010 and had a good year in 2009. he had a dead arm all of last year, both confirmed by his velocity/control and confirmed by rick anderson. this was clearly from overuse. with a full offseason of rest he should be back to his 2010 form in 2012. and again, it’s a gamble we should take. i’d rather pay liriano $10M/yr for the next 4 years (gambles and all) than a guy like Carl Pavano that same money over the next 4 years, which is basically what happens if we have to find guys for similar money in FA. You don’t get a Liriano-type in FA for $10M/yr.
Not sure about that
Roy Oswalt is looking cheaper than $10M/year. Edwin Jackson hasn’t signed yet which makes me believe he’s getting less than $12M a year.
Still a big gamble
ERA is hardly a good barometer. he was dominant in 2010 and had a good year in 2009
His FIP was worse in ‘09 than it was last year, if you’re trying to say that he was unlucky then. The fact is that he’s never put together two consecutive successful seasons: He was phenomenal in ‘06, good in ’08, and great in ’10, and bad or nonexistent every other year. On the plus side, it’s an even year this year.
Interestingly, Liriano’s FIP has been way under his ERA each of the last three years, despite having a decent BABIP in 2011. It wasn’t HR/FB, either – xFIP was in the same vicinity. I wondering if there’s something about Liriano’s style that causes that, or if (more likely) it’s a statistical fluke.
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
I would rather
see him cut than get a large extension. No way in hell does he deserve a relatively large guaranteed contract with what he’s done.
He has the best chance to be a dominate pitcher of anyone on the roster in the next few years. I would say the chance of that happening, is about 1 in 5 and I wouldn’t put the money they’re going to have to invest into those odds.
REPORTER: What do you think is happening to the team?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: The ship be sinking.
REPORTER: How far can it sink?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: Sky's the limit.
by uofmike on Jan 18, 2012 1:08 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I would love to see a Liriano extension
As I would have liked to see a Mauer extension before his MVP season, instead of after it. I think 4/40 would be a great deal…7/9/11/13 over four years, maybe an option year or two?
Serious buy low opportunity. What kind of an extension would he have gotten last year? It would have included two arb years, following a stellar year. Now we might get a cheaper extension that buys out more free agent years.
by AM. on Jan 18, 2012 7:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The only way
this makes sense for the Twins is if they can get him on an exceptionally team-friendly contract. Three years, $21 million – something like that. But there’s no way Liriano let’s the Twins sign him for less than he’d get on the open market next year.
Smaller raise?
How is Liriano’s $1.2 million raise smaller than Perkins $850k raise? A lower percentage raise maybe, but certainly not smaller.
Smaller percentage, yes.
It’s also a smaller raise than he received from ’10 to ’11.
Of course it’s not a smaller raise than Perkins’.
Twins did very well on the Cisco 1-year deal...
I think we were all expecting he’d be making at least around $6M this year through arbitration.
I hope they sign 'Lexi
Who else going to bat 2nd this year?
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 18, 2012 2:00 PM EST reply actions
Jamey Carroll is batting 2nd this year
Doesn’t matter if they sign Casilla. Carroll is a prototypical #2 hitter.
Carooll is perfect for the second spot
But Gardy has a way of screwing up that slot. Maybe he wants more speed.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Whichever one battles their tail off the most.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 18, 2012 6:12 PM EST up reply actions
I know I'm the only person who has faith in him
but I think Nishi will have a nice season for us.
REPORTER: What do you think is happening to the team?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: The ship be sinking.
REPORTER: How far can it sink?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: Sky's the limit.
haha
I am thinking he will basically put up Carroll numbers except with a little more speed
REPORTER: What do you think is happening to the team?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: The ship be sinking.
REPORTER: How far can it sink?
MICHAEL RAY RICHARDSON: Sky's the limit.
by uofmike on Jan 19, 2012 2:03 AM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think he'll do better than last year,
but personally I can’t see him doing as well as we expected him to do when we got him
"The problem with baseball is that it is not played year round" -Gaylord Perry
by twinsgirl197 on Jan 18, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
All he has to do is stay helethy and he'll do better than last year
In the sea of injuries, people forget that he was out a big chunk of the year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
yeah, people do need to remember that.
He got what, about a month and a half of playing time? Maybe not even that? I don’t remember exactly, but I know it was a short period of time
"The problem with baseball is that it is not played year round" -Gaylord Perry
by twinsgirl197 on Jan 19, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions
He came back too soon and reinjured it. Then they shut him down
He has yet to have a season with more than 100 games in the majors. Either he’s been hurt or he’s been shuffled in and out of Gardy’s doghouse. He has the talent. He has the experience. He just needs a full healthy season as a starter to show what he’s capable of.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

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