Twinkie Town 2012 Top 50...Round 21!
by roger13 on Jan 2, 2012 1:12 PM EST
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PrintWe closed out our Top 20 with the big hard throwing high school pitcher, Hudson Boyd. Boyd received 89 of 297 votes (30%) over New Years. David Bromberg was second (62), Madison Boer third (45), Lester Oliveros fourth (23 and Deolis Guerra fifth (19).
That means our Top 20 is in the books for the coming year: Miguel Sano (1), Eddie Rosario (2), Oswaldo Arcia (3), Aaron Hicks (4), Joe Benson (5), Kyle Gibson (6), Chris Parmelee (7), Liam Hendriks (8), Brian Dozier (9), Chris Herrmann (10), Max Kepler (11), Levi Michael (12), Adrian Salcedo (13), Alex Wimmers (14), Angel Morales (15), Carlos Gutierrez (16), Tom Stuifbergen (17), Travis Harrison (18), Niko Goodrum (19), and Boyd (20).
Added to the next round will be a left handed pitcher who took two big steps this year, Logan Darnell. Darnell, the Twins sixth round pick in 2010, began with a 2-2 record and 3.78 ERA in six starts (33.1 innings) at Beloit. He spent most of his season at Ft. Myers where he led the team with a 8-3 record with a 4.17 ERA in fifteen starts (86.1 innings). He moved on to New Britain late in the season with the Rock Cats battling for a playoff spot. Darnell made five starts in AA with a 1-1 record and 5.58 ERA in 30.2 innings.
This round will remain open until noon on Tuesday. As a heads up, beginning Thursday all rounds will close in the evening until later in January.
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holy pitchers
Went with Soliman once again. Not sure why he is being disrespected like this. If it is because of W-L record I am going to be sick.
Jairo Perez, Nate Roberts and Daniel Santana
might be good additions soon.
Perez and Roberts are a little old to be
starting at Ft.Myers. Roberts has Morales,Hicks, Arcia, Ray and Ortiz to compete with. Perez has Hildalgo ahead of him. As for Santana, I’ve got Grimes at SS over Santana. Grimes is the same age (Drafted last year)and got in with Santana at Beloit. But, we’ll see if one of these guys can have a big year and jump up a league or two.
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
Voted Hermsen
He’s almost identical to Stuifbergen, numbers wise. But he’s bigger. Could be a good innings eater in a few years. Soliman is flashy. Boyd has good tools. I could have voted for either. Guerra is another worthy pick here. He should be int he Twins bullpen at some point in 2012. But Hermsen has the best chance of the four to become a starter in the majors, imho.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Boer, not Boyd.
Get the mixed up.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
went boer
early numbers were really impressive looks like he might have the stuff to be a 3 or 4 in the rotation or a force at the back end of the pen.
first-worst-first?
+1
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
Boer
have been voting for him for like 10 rounds!
+ 1/2
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
Soliman for me
Oliveros, Guerra & Robertson should all pitch for the Twins in 2012 at some point
Boer is a good choice so is Hermsen. But I like the potential of Soliman so I went with him
Why Darnell?
I know he advanced a lot last year, but he got worse as he advanced, and he wasn’t any great shakes before.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
by cmathewson on Jan 2, 2012 7:59 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
He's probably our best lefty prospect...
…and some people consider left handed pitching useful on occasion. Might come in handy.
He is?
I would say Robertson is a better Bullpen option. And I can’t see how his better than Dean or Diamond.
And all three shouldn’t be getting votes over some of the pitchers on the board.
I rank Dean and Robertson higher
I also rate Diamond higher, but only because of proximity to the majors. I think Darnell is another Diamond.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
untill Darnell is dropped to relief,
I’d have to rank him higher then Roberts. As for Diamond, he’s one level higher and three years older. The Twins jumped Darnell 2 levels last year. That don’t do that unless the see great promise with a player. As far as Dean, Darnell had a better year, take your pick. I like Oliveros. He’s a year older then Dean and Darnell and could be starting in the Twins pen.
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 8:42 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think Darnell will start in New Britain
They sent two lefties there late in the year to plug holes (Dean was the other). Neither fared well at all at AA. Darnell will likely start in A+. Diamond could easily start in the majors. He pitched more innings for the big club (with a lower ERA) than Darnell did at AA in 2011.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I believe Logan Darnell will be moved to the bullpen eventually.
Much like Carlos Gutierrez.
If I remember correctly, Darnell’s throwing motion has some similarities to Brian Fuentes.
Marginal peripherals
9.4 H/9
2.43 SO/BB
5.4 SO/9
I don’t care which hand he uses. He can’t be better than Boer, Hermsen, Robertson, Soliman, or Guerra.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
as far as Guerra,
I think he’s about done. He’s the not young anymore and has nothing over the relief pitcher at AAA. Best for him I can see is Long relief.
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
22 years at AA is about right
He could be more than a long man. I think he could be a nice bullpen.
by clutterheart on Jan 3, 2012 10:19 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
His k/9 is right around 9
He has the stuff to be a set-up guy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he spends some time in the majors in 2012, along with Oliveros and Gutierrez.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
My top 20 is a little different
Collective:
Miguel Sano (1), Eddie Rosario (2), Oswaldo Arcia (3), Aaron Hicks (4), Joe Benson (5), Kyle Gibson (6), Chris Parmelee (7), Liam Hendriks (8), Brian Dozier (9), Chris Herrmann (10), Max Kepler (11), Levi Michael (12), Adrian Salcedo (13), Alex Wimmers (14), Angel Morales (15), Carlos Gutierrez (16), Tom Stuifbergen (17), Travis Harrison (18), Niko Goodrum (19), and Boyd (20).
Mine:
1) Sano
2) Hicks
3) Rosario
4) Arcia
5) Gibson
6) Benson
7) Michael
8) Salcedo
9) Hendriks
10) Boyd
11) Wimmers
12) Morales
13) Dozier
14) Kepler
15) Parmelee
16) Harrison
17) Herrmann
18) Goodrum
19) Boer
20) Hermsen
That's as good a list as any
MIA: Stuifbergen and Soliman. Can’t figure out whom they would displace, though, except maybe Stuiffy for Hermy.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Plenty of interchangeable arms for 21-25
Stuifbergen, Solimon, Bromberg, Oliveros, Dean, Diamond, Guitierrez. Pick names out of a hat and you’ll have just as much chance of getting it right as you would thinking about it for hours.
The only switch I'd make
is Parmelee up to 7 and Dozier up one. I like Parmelee more then most. The list looks a lot better then last year!
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 8:50 AM EST up reply actions
I just don't see the upside for Parmelee
First basemen who hit 15 HR are pretty common. Carlos Pena is still looking for a job.
Right
And Pena is an elite defender.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Were we're our 15Hr's last year?
Cuddyer 20 and Valencia 15. I guess we could of used Parmelee last year, if you say he could hit 15 Hr’s. He matched Justin’s 4 in one month and 200 less AB’s Say what you want, now one knows what Justin will due next year and Parmelee fill in just fine.
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 11:04 AM EST up reply actions
Parmelee HR/season
2007 – 15
2008 – 14
2009 – 16
2010 – 8
2011 – 17
Morneau’s equivalent age seasons to Parmelee’s 2010/11 he hit 22 each year and at AAA, not AA.
The Twins were horrible last year, of course they could have used 15 HR. Sliding Valencia to 1B is about the same as using Parmelee there. Neither one is a solution.
Parmelee is a gap hitter
He tried hitting homers and he stank at it. Since Bruno modified his approach, shortened his stride and leveled his swing, homers have still come, but not at Morneau rates.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hence the limited upside
He has a fairly high floor – I think he can be useful at the major league level – but 15 HR power lefthanded bats that play a passable first base are EVERYWHERE. This is the kind of guy that gets non-tendered in his 3rd year of arbitration.
When does Hicks have to start doing something to justify a #2 rating?
…He has now had four years of professional ball and other than a couple months in the GCL and a few spurts every year, his on field play doesn’t warrant a top anything. I know, he has all the tools in the world. My point is that at some time he is going to have to start using them or dropping like a rock. Personally, I wouldn’t have him in the Top 10 any longer.
He has twice had an OPS above .800
That’s not setting the world on fire, but it’s something. Torii Hunter didn’t have an OPS above .800 until he was in AAA. It takes guys with that level of talent a long time to develop. But when they do, they shoot past their peers and become stars. Patience, my friend.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I don't know. I think there's such a thing as an incredible athlete...
…who just can’t hit a baseball that well. In fact, I think that’s a pretty common state for incredible athletes to be in. And the Hunter example doesn’t mean that it’s good to not hit well in the minors. Hitting mediocrely in the minors = not a sign that you are a future star.
There are no guarantees
But I personally reserve my top five slots for guys who have a chance to be very good starters in the majors. If you have the tools, you at least have a chance. Lots of guys put up good numbers in the low minors without the tools to be major leaguers. Erik Lis and Deacon Burns come to mind.
FWIW, I ranked Hicks third, behind Rosario and Sano and just ahead of Arcia. I probably would have put Hicks fourth except his defense is better than Arcia’s. All four of those guys have the tools to be stars. Chances are, only one of them will be. But even those who are not stars will be decent major leaguers eventually.
It’s not like Hicks has been bad. He’s never had a sub-.700 OPS in the minors, like Span (5 times) or Hunter (3 times).
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Hicks has tools but,
I question how good they are. Yes he has a great arm, but unless your a SS,C or Pitcher, its just a nice perk. His hitting for Avg-Okay, His hitting for power-Okay and his Speed- Good but not Great. As far as CF’s go- Benson has same speed and Arm with more power. Revere has more speed and Ortiz at Ft.Myers might develop. This will be the big year for Hicks at AA to prove he’s a hitter, also Morales and Arcia
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 9:00 AM EST up reply actions
His power is on par with Benson's
His arm is the best in the org. His range is the best. His eye at the plate is the best.
Three of his five tools are the best in the org. The only one that is not above average is contact. Most scouts think he just needs to be more aggressive. It’s a lot easier to learn to be more aggressive than to learn to be more patient.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
CMath...
…my question is when do you start dropping Hicks in your rankings? If he has another year in Hi A like last year, do you drop him a year from now? And how far? When he repeated at Beloit and didn’t light it up is when I started questioning whether he will ever make it. Twins will have a real problem next November when he needs to be added to the 40-man roster, especially if he has another so-so year.
From what i have read
His defense is good enough to be a starting CFer in the bigs right now with his batting eye someone would take him. It should be an easy choice to protect him.
by clutterheart on Jan 3, 2012 10:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
No way do you let this guy go unprotected. Tools wise, he’s the best prospect in the system.
People forget he was the 16th overall selection in the 2008 draft. And he was scouted to be every bit as good as his slot. I wouldn’t call his career a disappointment at this point, not like Hunter, Span or even Benson at this point.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I think he'll be in AA this year
And I believe he’ll have a breakout year. Not .900 OPS year or anything, but a solid 800+ year. His numbers from A+ don’t say much. It’s tough to focus so much on numbers because guys are working on stuff. I know if you talk to Jake Mauer, he’ll tell you Hicks had a better year than his numbers. And he followed it up by playing well against AA and AAA guys in Arizona.
To answer you question, though, if he has another year like he did in A+ in AA, I would start dropping him. I don’t expect it because guys with his tools tend to get better as they progress (e.g. Benson). But if he does, I certainly would drop him into the lower tier of the top 10.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
We'll see. I've got him to start at AA too.
If you use the “he did well in Arizona” then the same would hold true for Dozier, who played well enough to be in the All-Star game in the Fall, and Herrmann.
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Well I like Dozier and Hermann too
But for different reasons. They’ll make good bench guys in a year or two. Hicks will be a starter in two years.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I guess that is where I disagree...
…As I have started dropping him. Yes, players work on things but after three consecutive disappointing years you are past the point of questioning whether or not he will ever be the player he was expected to be, at least IMO. As for tools, he has proven that he doesn’t have the tools we expected, ie, he has not hit for average. So at best, as of now, he is a four tool player.
Three consecutive?
This was his line in 2010:
115 G 518 PAs 423 ABs 86 R 118 H 27 2B 6 3B 8 HR 49 RBI 21 SB 11 CS 88 BB 112 SO .279/.401/.428/.829 181 TB
That’s a great season in Beloit, which is a pitchers’ league. He was the best player on that team and one of the best in the league. I thought he had arguably the best year in the organization.
So he’s had two great years and two mediocre years out of four. It’s way too early to start dropping him with his tools, particularly the way he played in Arizona against much older and more mature competition.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I guess my problem is all the hype...
…which really isn’t Hicks’ fault. For years I have seen fans talk about his athleticism, his tools, how fantastic of a prospect he is. Yet, year after year he doesn’t play like I would expect someone with that much talent should play, like Arica, Rosario, Sano have done.
OK, I admit I am down on him because in my opinion someone with that much hype should be putting up bigger numbers. Add to that the few times I have seen him play, he looked absolutely terrible at the plate. Yes, all of his at bats were left handed and it was in spring training. But he looked so over matched on breaking balls it was almost like he didn’t belong on the field…at least those days.
So count me amongst those few who would like to see something happen on the field commensurate with the hype. For the Twins, Like you I hope it will be this year
I'd disagree
First, he was an allstar twice in his respective leagues – in 08 and 10. But last year he started a bit slow in May but was pretty darn good in June (OPS over .900 IIRC) and July (over .800) before getting his thumb hurt. He started hitting well again at the end of the season and in the AFL.
Way too early to drop him.
Good points
His numbers were down last year because of what you cite, plus the extreme difficulty in hitting in the FSL and what he was trying to work on—being more aggressive.
A common mistake with a lot of numerical analysis I read on this site is not taking the league into account. Appy is an extreme hitters’ league. MDW and FSL are extreme pitchers leagues. IL and EL are moderate pitchers’ leagues.
If Hicks had gone to the APPY league instead of Beloit in 2009, his numbers would have rivaled Arcia’s 2010 numbers with more walks. Because of a great ST, they rushed him to Beloit and he struggled some as one of the youngest players in that league. Then people downgraded him because he repeated Beloit after skipping a level.
Now what seems to me to be one off year becomes a trend. In reality, it was just one off year, in which he redeemed himself in the AFL.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I know the guy can hit righthanded
The switch hitting thing is holding his numbers down. It’s also going to be harder for him to continue switch hitting as he goes up levels. He might not have the (very rare) talent to switch hit at a high level. If he starts hitting for avg/pwr from the left side he’s the type of player that doesn’t happen very often – Chipper Jones.
Yep
There have been rumors that he will be told to focus on hitting right handed exclusively in AA. If he does, I wouldn’t be surprised by a .900 OPS year.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
There will be an adjustment period
He’ll have to correct his batting eye for RH/RH matchups. He may have a bad start with that big of an adjustment but could go on a tear as the year progresses.
Hicks is starting to remind me of Billy Beane - a once upon a time Mets OF prospect
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
Bean's minor league numbers were far worse than Hicks'
He didn’t have an OPS above 800 until he was in his third season in AA. As I said above, Hicks has already done it twice.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
His splits are incredible
He absolutely destroys lefthanded pitching. I think the switch hitting is holding him back and he’ll do better when he quits.
It's also about the other guys in the list
If Gibson had been healthy he’d be #2 on my list. If Rosario repeats his performance at Beloit and plays a decent 2B he’s going to bump Hicks down. I could see Hicks putting up another decent year at AA showing progress is happening. He still might slide to #8 depending on the rest of the guys below him.
Boer
That fact that Boer isn’t on here yet almost invalidates this list. The kid has some real lightning stuff both as a starter or a reliever.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the damn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
~ Earl Weaver
"In God we trust. All others must provide evidence."
~ Billy Beane
i actually agree
I’d have him 13-17 personally
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 3, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
He's got Pugh, Hauser and Watts to pass
at AA. He might!
by b1 on Jan 3, 2012 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
Darnell's running away with this?
Wow. Voted Boer.
This smacks of a Darnell family campaign
We’ve had a few of those over the years.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
+1
…this is certainly a surprise, at least for me. But it has been consistent throughout the evening and now this morning. It isn’t like a few we have had where there is a sudden late rush of one person coming from behind and getting all the votes for a couple hours.
Expect you are right, someone got the word out and a group of people are voting for their friend/family/best guy…whatever!
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