Got Healthy?
by chatter on Jan 3, 2012 4:25 PM EST
Email
PrintI feel absolutely terrible about Justin Morneau's injury(concussion) shortened career. It is such a shame. The Twins are in a position where they are counting on him for production due to the 15 million salary. How can he produce when it appears his career is in jeopardy?
The same could be said for Joe Mauer. He makes 23 million and struggles to hit for any power, keep out of double plays, and quite frankly, to stay healthy for an entire year.
I am not a WAR expert, but i believe you have to actually play the games (healthy) to provide any wins above replacement.
I have a crazy idea: Trade Joe Mauer. The guy is a hitting machine, but he is reluctant to move from catcher and this will shorten the productive years of his career. Insert last year. You could get a plethora of young talent for him and face it, the Twins are in a rebuilding mode that will take at least 4-5 years(if things go well) to compete for a championship. By that time, Mauer will be past his prime. Does anyone have Cashman's number? I will negotiate the trade for the Twins. I'm sure you could handle it too!
Crazy idea #2: Trade or release Justin Morneau if unwilling to restructure contract after this year. Even if you don't get equal value in return(for the prior to concussion production) because he is not that player anymore, you cut payroll and maybe some teams would be willing to trade a good prospect(s) for him.
Crazy idea #3: Sign Carlos Pena to play first base to replace an injured Morneau. He has power and a gold glove caliber fielding pedigree. Forget about his average. His OBP is ok for a first baseman with power. I'm sorry, but i don't see Parmelee and co as adequate replacements. They ARE minor leaguers for a reason.
Crazy idea #4: Sign Kevin Kouzmanoff to a 1 year deal. He is a great fielder with some pop. Then if Valencia gets cocky, we can sit him and teach him a little humility. It has been rumored that he could use some.
Crazy idea #5: sign Vlad Guerrero or Hideki Matsui to a 1 year deal. Either could play DH and one can still flat out hit. Sadly, either would be an upgrade over ANY current twin at that position. Maybe Matsui could mentor a certain young ss/2b that broke his leg last year. That is why I included him here. I think Vlad could at least hit some dingers. Thome was our favorite player last year because at least he provided some excitement.
This has become mostly a satire about how sad the Twins have become. A team that relies on a tandem that once were compared to mantle and maris, now better known for shampoo and ,unfortunately, a career likely ended by a concussion. A 3rd basemen that has gotten too big for his britches, and a pitching staff that throws some great BP. Lets draft some more pitchers that pitch to contact. That's working out well. Stay away from those Johan Santana's, they get good and cost too much money!
I'm sorry if i have offended anyone, but I honestly think that the Twins are subpar at evaluating talent and putting a pricetag on it. wish they would've spent more money on scouting and on hiring a elite GM that demands money for a few more pseudo-stars. Twins Payroll needs to be a MINIMUM of 140 million to compete for championships. Mauer's contract is crippling this team.
33 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
The Payroll cut
Is a joke! They get a new stadium, increase payroll for a year and now cut payroll what 20 million or so? I don’t care for the Pohlad way, sell the team to an owner that will spend money to Win championships! I wish someone would post what the Twins Porfits were in 2011. I breifly heard Dan B. on Kfan talking about the Twins contract with FSNet and from what he thought was a pretty big contract of money. He also thought cutting payroll was a Joke!
This list is from 2011
And it doesn’t cover on-field value which would reduce the value of the Minnesota Twins. Of course, none of this matters to the average fan. They want to see baseball and if the team isn’t any good, they stay away. That was the problem in the late 1990’s when the Twins had trouble drawing fleas to the Metrodome.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
I would like to see Dallas vs the Giants on Thanksgiving, Make it happen NFL!
It has 2011 numbers.
Unless they’re just projections. I don’t really care. I was being snarky on purpose, because I don’t appreciate posts like the one I replied to very much. At least I didn’t lmgtfy him, so there’s that.
by spanspanspan on Jan 3, 2012 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
thats what teams do that have a terrible season
the next season you typically drop payroll a bit.
no big deal, it isn’t a HARD CAP of 100 MM anyways it more like (+,—) 5 M of that at least.
Yoenis Cespedes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9ge8l3jY8
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 4, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
They'll add payroll mid year if...
…They’re in the race
…Attendance remains strong
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
This isn't singling you out but it really needs to be said
JOE MAUER HAS A NO TRADE CLAUSE!
"I learned something yesterday. No use in having rules if there's no punishment for breaking them. You'll be fine if you bite down on the trigger. Enjoy your breakfast."
Hold his milks hostage...
…until he waives it.
Mauer has a no trade clause and is the face of the franchise
Morneau is pretty much un tradedable at this point you would get no value from him have to take the flyer that he returns to some production next year.
They already have Morneau, Mauer, Doumit, Hughes on the roster that can play first/DH + Parmalee in the wings
They brought in Burroughs for cheap to push Valencia no need to spend more money there.
As for the payroll ya it is nice for all of us to rabble about how it should be more but the fact is they are coming off a 99 loss season must expect ticket sales to come down some, are not getting revenue sharing money anymore, are not in a go all in year, and are in a year that is totally dependent on current players health adding other big names to multiple year contracts would look rather silly should Mauer and Morneau suffer again in 2012 and the twins still suck but now have even more money locked into the next couple years and even less flexibility. We do not need a 140 million dollar payroll to compete we are in a very weak division and the playoffs really are about who gets hot at the right time.
Ya I would have liked to see them push payroll back to 115 and get a front of the rotation starter but this year hinges on the health of Mauer, Morneau, and Baker, and the mind of Liriano without those guys in it they could have signed Pujols and not competed so it would be kind of silly to throw money at the problem just for the sake of doing it, if they suck again in 2012 then serious changes come if they do good payroll could go back up easily when there is a more known commodity to spend it on. Plus to add to the swing year if they do play well in the first half they shouldn’t be limited by salary come the trade deadline if they need to add a big piece but first its all about proving they can be good.
first-worst-first?
I said it is basically a satire on our situation.
Of course we can’t trade Mauer. I know that. As far as “throwing money at it” I have to tell you, good players cost money. I’m not saying overpay for a cj wilson, but they need to hold onto their Santana’s that come from the farm system. If you pride yourself on building from within, you have to keep ALL your superstars and add in gap players at positions your system can’t produce major league talent. (ala Jamey Carroll…grandpa) Don’t sign the Nishi’s if you haven’t extensively scouted them. That’s why i recommended increasing our scouting budget. Let the payroll fall where it may accordingly. If you do those things, it would likely be 140m. On a side note, i do believe that while trading mauer (if he waived the no trade clause) would drop attendance, the 100 loss team their gonna field this year will drop it too. And i’m not content to make it to the playoffs and get promptly swept by the yankees or oakland, are you?
I'm glad we let Santana walk
it would have gotten tiresome hearing how big of a wimp he was last year.
holymackerel!
I’m speechless….and not in a good way!
I hate posts like this
I am not a WAR expert, but i believe you have to actually play the games (healthy) to provide any wins above replacement.
You can go to Fangraphs and look at Mauer’s year-to-year and career WAR numbers.
2004: 1.2
2005: 3.4
2006: 6.4
2007: 3.1
2008: 6.2
2009: 7.9
2010: 5.6
2011: 1.8
Total 35.7
The consensus is this is actually lower than his real value because WAR is heavily based on defense and even the experts know that UZR seriously undervalues the catching position.
He’s been below average (2.0) twice—when he had knee surgeries and struggled to return in the time frame of other position players, ’cause, you know, you have to squat for hours at a time. Otherwise, he has been in the top 5 in the league in games and innings caught, while DHing quite a bit more than his contemporaries.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I am a fan of your posts cmathewson.
I realize you make a great point, yet again. I was just trying to make the point that (in theory) if the twins are unwilling or financially unable to expand the payroll, the accumulative WAR for 3-4 quality players replacing our weakest positions would superceed Mauer’s WAR even when healthy. It is a team game and It really hurts when you rely so much on only a select few players. ANY injury is magnified, imo. Thanks for the post.
Yeah
But Joe Mauer is one player we should have kept. He is adapting quite nicely to 1st base and even played one game in the outfield without complaint, that is until the game ended and he said that he was bored. (The reason was because only three balls came his way and they were easy catches.)
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
I would like to see Dallas vs the Giants on Thanksgiving, Make it happen NFL!
If mauer plays first base...
Where will Sano fit in?
He's a third baseman
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
thought i had read..
http://twinstarget.com/2011-archives/february/top-15-prospects-3-miguel-sano.html
they said he was growing too fast and was going to be too big for 3rd base. I don’t know what that means either. Alex Rodriguez plays well and is a tall guy. You’re probably right.
Guys grow at different rates
He’s big for his age. But he’s not fat like Cabrera was. He’s ripped. He’s right handed, has good foot quickness and a strong arm—not that scream first base.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
I haven't read this much crap in a fanpost
Since Jessy S went to McDonald’s.
"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen
by less cowbell, more 'neau on Jan 4, 2012 10:50 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
And crapped in one of their booths
To the point that the hazmat team had to close that location for a year.
I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
I would like to see Dallas vs the Giants on Thanksgiving, Make it happen NFL!
It'll a little hard to see
How it’s a good idea to sell your top players, who are in the age primes, low and replace them with very old vets who are almost at the end of the line.
that's not the idea...
1. I wasn’t serious about trading Mauer. I do think Justin is done as we knew him.
2. If you did trade a bat for several young players that can come up together and have a run, like we did to win all of those division championships, then you have a team. I liked the move when they brought up Torii, Jacque, Mienkiewicz, and the likes and let them play together.
3. Pitching and defense are still a more consistent way to win. We have a severe deficiency in the pitching department. Let go of Punto for nishi and casilla to start. Let’s just say that i think the Twins have lost their way. Cuddyer was a fan favorite, versatile, and personable. If you say Mauer has intrinsic value beyond his numbers, Cuddyer had more. He will be missed and I wish him the best in Colorado. The twins by losing Cuddyer and Kubel did lose some of their best talent, and will replace them with minor leaguers, josh willingham(cuddyer intangibles-arm strength and accuracy, true versatility -wannabe)and Jamie carroll(an old vet) by default.
Comments
Crazy idea #2: Trade or release Justin Morneau if unwilling to restructure contract after this year. Even if you don’t get equal value in return(for the prior to concussion production) because he is not that player anymore, you cut payroll and maybe some teams would be willing to trade a good prospect(s) for him.
1) The collective bargaining agreement prohibits restructuring contracts downward – you can’t bargain with a guy to take a pay cut. Why not, if you’re threatening to cut him? Because…
2) MLB contracts are guaranteed. Cutting a guy doesn’t save any salary – you’re paying him to either sit at home or play for someone else.
3) Morneau’s trade value has never been lower than it is now. Until he shows signs of recovery on the field, he actually has negative trade value – you’d have to pick up most of his salary to get a team to give up much more than minor league roster filler. The Twins can afford to pay his salary and take the chance that he bounces back, which is probably much higher than the chance that the fringe prospect they’d get for him pans out.
Crazy idea #5: sign Vlad Guerrero or Hideki Matsui to a 1 year deal. Either could play DH and one can still flat out hit. Sadly, either would be an upgrade over ANY current twin at that position.
2011 OPS
Hideki Matsui: 696
Vladimir Guerrero: 733
Ryan Doumit: 830
"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
Here's another comparison
Doumit: 2011- .303 ba, 8 hr. 2010- .250 ba 2009- .251 Ba. averages 2 k’s per walk. Last year was a career year for him.
Vlad the impaler: 2011- .290 ba 13 hr 2010-.300 ba 2009- .295 ba. He is a consistent producer, and if he had been a career twin, everyone would compare him to kirby with his pure hitting ability and free swinging style.
Matsui: 2011- .251 ba 12hr 56 walks to 84 k’s 2010- .274 ba 24 hr 2009- .274 ba 21 hr. Last year was his worst statistical year and he was playing in oakland coliseum on a new team. I look for him to bounce back.
Age/performance
Vlad and Matsui are done. Doumit has several good years left in him.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
done is pretty strong language.
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [September 22, 2011 at 8:01am CST]
Vladimir Guerrero told Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that he hopes to play two or three more seasons in the Major Leagues instead of retiring after the season. The 36-year-old is just three hits behind Julio Franco for the all-time Dominican hits record and one homer away from 450 for his career. Though he could reach both milestones in 2011, he expects to be back next year.
"I feel I can play two or three more years," he told Connolly. "And I just need to work a little harder this offseason when I go to the Dominican and see what happens."
Guerrero has 2,583 hits, 449 homers and a .318/.379/.553 line 16 seasons into a career that will probably deliver him to Cooperstown soon after he retires.
How did they play last year?
For Vlad, an OPS+ of 101 at age 36 doesn’t bode well for his age 37 season. He could have a bounce-back year. But it’s not likely, considering that his knees are shredded.
Matsui had an OPS+ of 92 at 37. His knees are even worse than Vlad’s.
Perhaps you don’t know the theory of the age/performance bell curve, which is the closest thing to science that we know in baseball. According to that theory, players tend to peak around ages 27-28 and regress afterwards. There are outliers, but the older a guy is after age 28, the more likely his performance will regress. Chronic injuries make regression more likely still. An injured player after age 36 will almost certainly regress.
Even with regression, a player can still be useful in a limited role. But teams tend to pay for his past performance and not his future performance. And the player expects such compensation. So it’s really difficult to get any value from players who are older than 36, particularly if they have chronic injuries.
All that is a long-winded way of saying that Vlad and Matsui are effectively done.
"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot
Mauer's Contract
I am in no ways an expert on this, but i’m pretty sure that if we were to release morneau than we’d have to eat his $15 million for the next 3(?) years. same goes with mauer. and i disagree, i think that parmalee is practically ready for the major, another season in AAA ball and he will be a force to be recogned with.
by TwinsTerritory on Jan 12, 2012 12:20 AM EST reply actions
If Morneau were picked up on waivers
Twins would be free and clear. But, clearly, the twins will stick it out and see what happens. Mauer’s not going anywhere, for better or worse. Better if twins are willing to expand payroll for quality players and worse if he eats up such a large (A-Rods contract is cheaper for the yankees percentage wise) percent of total expenditure. Teams rarely build entirely from within. You need payroll to go after pitchers for this team unless you like to lose early and often. Even the Rangers bid on Darvish, and they have great pitching. Pitching is where it’s at. Parmalee better be ready, for the twin’s fan’s sake. And his own. Following up Hrbek, Mienkiewicz couldn’t handle the pressure. He was talented. Following such a beloved twin as Justin is a tough task. He better be mentally tough and play good defense.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Twinkie Town
Related FanShots on Twinkie Town
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
