Twins have draft pool of almost $12.4 million, tops in baseball.

Meanwhile, the CBA just went from maybe to definitely awful for small market teams who were working the old system in the one way in which they were able: with overslot bonuses. The Pirates are all-but-forced to go from spending $16.4 million to $6.5 million and the Royals go from $14m to $6. Way to level the playing field, Bud! (Yes, I blame the MLBPA's myopia, too.)

While one can certainly argue that eventually the big boys would have caught on and started spending big on overslot bonuses, too, don't you wait for that to become a problem before "fixing" it? If you're actually worried about competitive balance, that is.

3 months ago tobynotjason 32 comments 0 recs |

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I hate the new CBA.

by funnytrain on Feb 20, 2012 1:44 PM EST reply actions

Should be good for us

Despite perceptions to the contrary, big market teams have been going overslot a lot. Since 2007, the Red Sox have spent nearly as much on bonus as the Royals have. In fact, since 07, only 5 teams have paid less than the Twins have when it came to draft bonuses.

by Gunnarthor on Feb 20, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

Red Sox are a big-market exception re: spending overslot...

and the aggregate figures are distorted by the numbers of comp. picks they had, which require significant money even if the signings are at slot.

But yes, the Twins have chosen not to spend overmuch money on the draft, to their detriment.

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

slot signings don't count in the bonus calculations.

by Gunnarthor on Feb 20, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions

Sure they do.

A slot bonus is a bonus. That’s what “slot” is: a “recommendation” for the size of the signing bonus.

by tobynotjason on Feb 21, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

So a $13M ceiling

since it’s doubtful they’d be willing to dump next year’s pick. That’s $7M over last year. At least that budget talking point has some truth to it.

by archie2227 on Feb 20, 2012 1:44 PM EST reply actions

In a sense, yeah.

OTOH, it’s a FANTASTIC investment – you’d buy these players all day long for that kind of money in a free agent market – so to cripple the MLB spending pool because of it seems wacky, since you’re theoretically gonna get paid-and-then-some on the back end.

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

I could see them signing quite a few people over slot with that

Not a bad way to lock up toolsy prospects.

by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 20, 2012 2:00 PM EST reply actions

Can't do it.

The bonus limits are tied to the slots, not fungible (which was the first thing people thought of when trying to figure out a workaround). So you can’t take your money for your 2nd overall pick and spread it around signing high-ceiling high school guys with college commitments who didn’t go in the top half of the 1st round later. Not that you’d want to punt on the 2nd overall pick anyway. Nor can you take money from later rounds and pile it on to your sandwich picks to sign similar players.

The point (on it’s own terms) of the new CBA seems to be “just draft the best player available and sign him to slot”, so the Twins 2011 performance plus Cuddyer/Kubel means they SHOULD be sitting very pretty come June. Should be even prettier but for the sad Capps resigning. Of course, this year’s draft class ain’t exactly last year’s draft, and even if it were, the Josh Bells probably ain’t gonna sign unless they’re picked in the top 10 this time around, because nobody wants to lose their pick next year (which is the cost for any significant overslot signing).

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

Damn

That’s too bad. I was sorta hoping they could use this strategy:

Nor can you take money from later rounds and pile it on to your sandwich picks to sign similar players.

by archie2227 on Feb 20, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions

I'm glad I'm not the one who has to tell Gardy he can't pile whatever he wants onto his sandwich.

by timprov on Feb 20, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

You can go over slot after the 10th round.

Traditionality that’s where the Twins have gone over slot the most.

"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"

by maxisagod on Feb 20, 2012 2:56 PM EST reply actions

Right

All those guys who scared teams away with college tenders suddenly get easier to sign if you offer them third-round money.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 20, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Can't pay more than 100k...

unless you’re willing to pay the fine and lose the picks and the access to the lotteries.

In addition, I’ve read that going even a dollar over slot on any pick anywhere kicks you out of the competitive balance lottery, which was at least a bone thrown to the small market clubs.

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Correction...

I think $1 over slot means you’re out of the lottery for other teams’ lost-due-to-going-over-slot-by-too-much picks, but not out of the regular competitive balance lottery (unless you go overslot by 5% total).

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Not by much.

Slot beyond the 10th is effectively 100k. Anything over that counts against your pool.

by tobynotjason on Feb 20, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Not quite

Any bonus after the tenth round of less than 100K doesn’t count against the aggregate pool. So the most any 10th rounder (or beyond) could be offered without potentially disrupting the pool is just under 200k. And the Twins have about 600k in wiggle room before the cap penalties kick in (assuming they spend all the potential bonus money). So, in theory, they could draft a half dozen kids after the 10th rd and offer each of them 300k without problems.

by Gunnarthor on Feb 20, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

You're misunderstanding what is meant by "bonus".

It’s not some “extra” money over and above a signing bonus pegged to slot. It’s the total amount you’re allowed to spend on the player’s signing bonus, period. There’s not a separate “slot” number and then a bonus number on top of that.

by tobynotjason on Feb 21, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

Wouldn't be the first time I didn't understand something.

So, 10th rd and beyond can be offered 100k without counting against the aggregate pool. (“Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing
Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess
of $100,000 will count against the Pool.”)

But the Twins would still have some wiggle room (around 600K) to go over aggregate pool without losing picks (that 0-5% total, although would cost the team a hefty tax).

by Gunnarthor on Feb 21, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions

Correct.

But the other thing is that the “pool” is a bit of a fiction. If the guy you pick fails to sign, your “pool” goes down by the amount of that slot. The “pool” only matters inasmuchBasically, it seems like the created a hard slotting system but really, really, really didn’t want to call it that, so they talked a lot about the bonus “pool”.

Per Callis back in November:

If a team fails to sign a player in the first 10 rounds, its draft cap is reduced by the assigned value of his pick. It can’t reallocate that value to sign other players. However, it can reallocate the difference between a player’s bonus and the value of his choice.

So sure, you can sign a guy under slot and reallocate his money. If you’re picking a top high school guy who slips AT ALL from the very top, you might have to draft some college seniors in the middle rounds of the first 10 to free up some money if actually want to sign the guy.

by tobynotjason on Feb 21, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions

I'm kind of curious how they figure it out with total signings

No team signs 50 guys, so do they alot bonus money for all players in each round, or not?

by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 22, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Each round has a slot until round 10

After round 10 you can spend up to 100k per pick.

by DJL44 on Feb 22, 2012 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

I'm thrilled with this....

one one side , we may feel like we’ll be forced to spend at least 8-10 Million to approach that 12 MM figure…

But i hope we do, I mean last year an AMAZING talent Pitssburgh Pirates OF Josh Bell fell to the 3rd Round ! YES 3rd round pick 92 overall or something close (maybe high 70s to 100s…)

And he is one of the BEST prospects in the ENTIRE draft last year.

1. Anthony Rendon 3B – Wash
2. Dillon Bundy SP – Bal
3. Gerrit Cole SP – Pit
4. Trevor Bauer SP – ARI
5. Bubba Starling OF – K.C.
6. Josh Bell OF – Pit
7. Danny Hultzen SP – SEA
8. Francisco Lindor SS – CLE

those are 8 of the definate 10 or 12 best players from last year’s draft and STICTLY because of Money and fear he was college Bound Josh Bell went in Rd 3!!!!!!!!

I think the CBA is really good for us, despite the vagueness about it and the unpleasant way it looks now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/photo-logan-morrison-bryan-petersen-share-tub-drink-043548597.html

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 20, 2012 6:30 PM EST reply actions

Love this list

The lists would never be about the best players, but instead who was being drafted. Now picks will actually correlate with quality.

Another good thing about this (aside from the Twins picking the best player available), the Tigers won’t be able to stockpile overdrafts…

by AM. on Feb 20, 2012 9:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

2nd round, actually, 61st overall. Twins could have had him.

They just didn’t want to spend/risk. His situation was discussed ad nauseum on Pirates boards and there was near-consensus that he’d absolutely sign if the money was right.

The CBA has cut off the two avenues by which smaller market clubs could compete for signing top-tier talent with the behemoths: overslot draft signings and international scouting/signing. I can’t see how that’s remotely good for baseball.

by tobynotjason on Feb 21, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

It does help the Twins

They’re cheap and never spend the overslot bonuses. This helps ensure the talent is there when they draft each pick and they don’t have to worry about bonus demands.

by DJL44 on Feb 21, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions

It doesn't inherently help them. It helps them because they've been stupid in this regard.

Not spending on the draft has been a choice. It’s been a flat-out bizarre one considering they can’t afford top-flight free agents. This feels like training wheels or something re: the Twins: save them from their own poor choices.

Some smart people think top talent will start taking a “four tries” approach: see where you go out of high school, go to JuCo, see where you go, transfer to 4-year (if necessary), see where you go as a Junior and then a Senior, given the fact that you can’t negotiate anymore for overslot money. If this happens, the whole “draft position determines talent drafted” notion behind the new CBA will go the way of a crapshoot. It’ll work itself over the very long term, maybe, but you could have teams screwed by guys waiting until next year over and over to move up. Plus things could get SERIOUSLY gamey with signing college senior organization types way underslot with early picks in order to hopefully reallocate the leftover bonus money to the guy you need to sign who has leverage. How fair will this be when it works for one team and another team has its “sure things” hold out for (near) slot, undercutting their ability to sign the talent that has leverage?

There are plenty of good things in the CBA, don’t get me wrong, and this year is easily the worst it will ever be given all the left-over absurd compensation picks augmenting the pools of some teams.

by tobynotjason on Feb 21, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

Players who make it to the first round will sign

They aren’t going to do better. It may impact the 4th and 5th rounders deciding to wait until they’re drafted higher but 1st and 2nd rounders are just going to have to swallow hard and sign on the dotted line.

by DJL44 on Feb 21, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

Some will, some won't.

There’s a huge difference in a top 5 slot vs. going 25th. If you’re a high ceiling high school kid who slips past 15th or so and you have interest in going to college, the upside of not signing just got a lot better than it would have been, since you can’t hold out for double slot money anymore. But yes, taking projectable high school arms in the later single-digit rounds and going significantly over slot to get them to pass on college is over.

by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions

couple of things

With the NFL and NBA also changing draft/slotting/signing rules, I’m not sure baseball as a whole will be hurt by this.

Likewise, while I agree that the Twins are stupid for not going overslot, they have done it from time to time when they liked the guy. They don’t do it excessively though, and for the most part, most smaller market teams dont. The bigger ones can do it, and it lets them get top tier talent in lower rounds because we all know they will write the check. The same goes for international. The CBA is attempting to reduce the size of those contracts, and the way to do it is to cap the dollars spent. I do think that an international draft is really the only fair way to do this, but apparently baseball isn’t there yet.

by diehardtwinsfan on Feb 22, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Re: "most smaller market teams don't", It's actually the one affordable way to spend money that's not out of small market budgets.

The Yankees LOVE the new CBA because it undercuts the Red Sox’s (the biggest big market exception) and Rays’ primary historical market advantage. The White Sox and Houston are big markets and they’ve historically spent pretty much bupkis on the draft (and they’ve got the farm systems to prove it!).

Last year the top teams for overslot spending were the Pirates (268% of slot recommendations) and Royals (249% of slot). Obviously this is skewed by the need to throw huge bonuses at very high draft picks out of high school or junior year, but at the same time both organizations have consistently gone over slot later to get better talent.

FWIW, here’s a look at how teams have spent 2007-2011.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/2011/08/bonus-expenditures-2007-11/

by tobynotjason on Feb 23, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

.

Bonuses……………Klaw rank
Pirates……………….Pads
Nationals…………..Rays
Royals……………….Jays
Red Sox…………….Cards
Orioles……………….Royals
Rays…………………..Dbacks
Blue Jays……………Rangers
Mariners……………..Pirates
Padres………………..A’s
Dbacks……………….Yanks
Yankees………………Mariners
Indians………………..LAD
Giants………………….Rocks
Cubs……………………Twins
Rangers………………LAA
Tigers………………….Braves
Brewers………………O’s
Reds……………………Sahx
Cards………………….Reds
Athletics………………Cubs
Astros………………….Nats
Mets…………………….Mets
Rockies……………….Brew
Dodgers………………Tigers
Twins…………………..Phillies
Phillies………………..Giants
Angels…………………Stros
Braves…………………Marlins
Marlins…………………Indians
White Sox…………….Sux