Aaron Gleeman at Baseball Prospectus: Santana Trade Was Lose-Lose

Over at BP, AG guest stars with a great look back at the Johan Santana trade and all of the pieces involved (rumored or factual).

4 months ago Jesse 22 comments 0 recs |

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It's also the 14 year anniversary of the Knoblauch trade

by DJL44 on Feb 7, 2012 10:30 AM EST reply actions

Man, TR is like a GM magician.

• Knoblach for Milton and Guzman
• Dave Hollins (who?) for PTBNL, who ended up being David Ortiz (yes, I know he undervalued Ortiz later)
• Aging Rick Aguilera for Kyle Lohse
• Brian Buchanan (who?) for Jason Bartlett
• Bobby Kielty (who?) for Shannon Stewart
• Eric Milton for Carlos Silva and LNP
and of course:
• A.J. Pierzynski for the entire San Francisco Giants roster.

Oh, yeah, and Johan Santant in the Rule 5 draft.

[#2 North Central] Minnesota RollerGirls (1-0) vs [#6 East] Montreal Roller Derby (0-0) - Sat 3/3/2012 in the Roy Wilkins Auditorium, St. Paul MN. mnrollergirls.com

by Flip27 on Feb 7, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

I still feel like the Twins ultimately did well in the trade.

Bill Smith really dodged a bullet with Santana’s injury problems after he went to the Mets. That alone tells me that the trade was the right decision for the Twins. Could the Santana ultimately have returned more from the Yankees or Red Sox? Definitely. -But I still can’t disagree with the Twins trading Johan to the NL and avioding organization-crippling injuries to an expensive ace pitcher.

Carlos Gomea was the best player we got from the Metropolitans, but he ultimately netted us J.J. Hardy, who was/is a very solid starting shortstop. Bill Smith just never seems to value good shortstops.
(see also: Bartlett, Jason).

[#2 North Central] Minnesota RollerGirls (1-0) vs [#6 East] Montreal Roller Derby (0-0) - Sat 3/3/2012 in the Roy Wilkins Auditorium, St. Paul MN. mnrollergirls.com

by Flip27 on Feb 7, 2012 10:47 AM EST reply actions

Santana would have returned more from the Yankees or Red Sox

He also would have crippled a playoff rival.

by DJL44 on Feb 7, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, but...

There have been lots of reports that the Red Sox and Yankees backed off when they heard his contract demands. Even if those offers were still on the table, I highly doubt the deal would have worked out with either AL team. Of the three GMs, only Omar would allow himself to be bullied in contract negotiations (by Santana himself!). Even Omar came within a few minutes of the deadline before he capitulated.

In hindsight, I wish Omar had said “No” to Santana’s ridiculous demands, like 50K for winning the silver slugger (!). If Omar had walked away, Santana would have come back knowing we did what we could, helped us win the division that year, and signed elsewhere. We would be reaping the benefits of those draft picks. But, at the time, the talent we were getting looked better than two high draft picks.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 7, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

agreed

Hindsight’s always 20/20 but knowing how that year went and adding Santana to this team could have changed a lot. The Twins could have made a nice playoff run that year with Santana leading the rotation.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Feb 7, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

Santana's injuries would'nt have affected the Twins

Bill Smith really dodged a bullet with Santana’s injury problems after he went to the Mets. That alone tells me that the trade was the right decision for the Twins.

There was basically no chance that the Twins would re-sign Santana, so his injuries just would’ve hurt whatever team signed him as a free agent after the season. He was healthy and effective in ’08.

"There are only two things that are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein

by BeefMaster on Feb 7, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

In hindsight, not trading would have been better

One more year of an ace, plus two draft picks. But at the time, the trade looked like the better option, considering Gomez and Guerra looking for all the world like better than a couple of draft picks

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 7, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah

Santana would have pitched over 200 innings for us in 2008 and then would have signed a huge deal with the Yankees.

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
I would like to see Dallas vs the Giants on Thanksgiving, Make it happen NFL!

by Jessy S on Feb 7, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

You can relive the drama in real time...

The trade is on this page…

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/johan_santana/page/5/

and you can navigate the rumors back in time on subsequent pages

by DavidRF on Feb 7, 2012 11:20 AM EST reply actions

I never thought the Red Sox offers were genuine

Why would they want a pitcher who gives up so my fly balls to left field to pitch half his games in front of the Green Monster? Seemed like they were just playing games to bid up the Yankee offers (or to scare them off).

That said, some of those archived Red Sox rumor reports did look pretty serious is real time.

by DavidRF on Feb 7, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

The Green Monster

Would have helped Santana. You have to have major power to clear that beast, or at least good help from a favorable wind.

by Jessy S on Feb 7, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions

THT did an analysis based on hit tracker data...

and found LF and LCF in Fenway to have home run park factors of 105 and 106, respectively (relative to an average LF and LCF).

I have never heard any analysis of Fenway conclude that “major power” is required to clear the Green Monster and invite you to provide a link to any such analysis. While some low-trajectory crushed fliners certainly become doubles, plenty of high-trajectory routine fly balls that wouldn’t even get to many warning tracks become home runs – hardly the result of “major power.”

On the other hand, the very deep center field robs even the best power hitters (who hit a greater proportion of their home runs to center field than players with modest power, who hit almost all their home runs on pull shots) of a lot of home runs (which is why overall RHB home run factors are on the whole usually around average in Fenway), and the deep right field hurts LH batters’ home run production.

In any event, the monster’s tendency to convert flyball outs into doubles has been well-known since forever, which was probably the point of DavidRF’s post, which you typically failed to address.

by tobynotjason on Feb 7, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions

For one thing

That green monster is about 40 FT high. In any case, my info was implied that Santana would give up doubles and singles instead of home runs. You still need major pull to hit the home runs, and Fenway would have helped Santana’s numbers regardless of him being a strikeout pitcher.

by Jessy S on Feb 7, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with the Green Monster isn't home runs.

The problem is the high number of hits off the wall. A semi-deep fly ball out to left in every other park is a single or double in Fenway.

[#2 North Central] Minnesota RollerGirls (1-0) vs [#6 East] Montreal Roller Derby (0-0) - Sat 3/3/2012 in the Roy Wilkins Auditorium, St. Paul MN. mnrollergirls.com

by Flip27 on Feb 8, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

OK you knuckleheads, break it up!

Let’s let Wiki settle this…

The Green Monster is famous for preventing home runs on many line drives that would clear the walls of other ballparks. A side effect of this is to increase the prevalence of doubles, since this is the most common result when the ball is hit off the wall (often referred to as a “wallball double”). Some left fielders, predominantly those with vast Fenway experience, have become adept at fielding caroms off the wall to throw runners out at second base or hold the batter to a single. Compared with other current major league parks, the wall’s placement creates a comparatively shallow left field; the wall falls approximately 304 – 310 feet (94 m) from the plate along the left-field foul line. With this short distance, many deep fly balls that could be caught by the fielder in a deeper park rebound off the wall for base hits. And while the wall turns many would-be line-drive homers into doubles it also allows some high yet shallow fly balls to clear the field of play for a home run.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 8, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

So... You agree with me then?

[#2 North Central] Minnesota RollerGirls (1-0) vs [#6 East] Montreal Roller Derby (0-0) - Sat 3/3/2012 in the Roy Wilkins Auditorium, St. Paul MN. mnrollergirls.com

by Flip27 on Feb 8, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

So the bold text states pretty much exactly what I said, viz.

While some low-trajectory crushed fliners certainly become doubles, plenty of high-trajectory routine fly balls that wouldn’t even get to many warning tracks become home runs – hardly the result of "major power."

and

the monster’s tendency to convert flyball outs into doubles has been well-known since forever

OTOH, there is Jessy’s unassailable and wholly premise-conclusion complete argument “For one thing that Green Monster is about 40 feet high.”

One does not need “major” anything to clear the Green Monster, and Fenway Park would unequivocally hurt a pitcher who gives up tons of flyballs to left (both the weak fly balls on late swings oh LHB [which can become wall doubles] and crushed flies hit by RHB [which easily clear the super-short wall]). There’s just not a credible argument to be made. I expected a goal-post move from “Green Monster” to “Fenway as a whole”, but I expected too much.

by tobynotjason on Feb 8, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions

The Big Papi factor

He’s found that a lazy fly to left is a homer. All he has to do is lift pitches on the outside corner to left and he has at least a double.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 8, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

It was just a knee-jerk correlation on my part

The old what-if-Dimaggio-was-traded-for-Williams type of thing. Yankee Stadium had a huge LF, Fenway has a large RF (outside the corner). Yankees used to try to avoid pitching Whitey Ford in road trips.

Yankee Stadium was rebuilt twice (in the 70s in its old location and in the 00’s across the street) and its LF is not as large as it once was but its still roomy out there — a bit like the way the Metrodome was configured. Santana would have loved pitching in Yankee Stadium.

And this whole notion of the Monster being “comforting” to pitchers is nuts. Every read what pitchers actually say? They stay its scary pitching in Fenway because that wall is so close. I’m not old enough to remember Fisk or Dent but I more people would hear of those types of pop-fly-homers.

I guess the like it did before they installed the skyboxes behind home plate (messed with the wind currents) so like Yankee Stadium, the park isn’t as extreme as it used to be but I would think the Red Sox would be looking for either a RHP or a groundball pitcher. Santana is neither of those.

That said, the mlbtraderumor archives above are pretty fascinating and those Red Sox rumors seemed pretty serious in real time. Fascinating read those.

by DavidRF on Feb 9, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Same here

It seemed like the Yankees and Red Sox as division rivals were each hoping the other one would give up too much, thus helping ensure a weaker opponent in the coming years.

Unfortunately, as badly as this trade has worked out, it wasn’t anywhere near the worst trade Bill Smith made. He really had little choice with the absence of suitors for Santana. At the time, I was just glad he went to the NL so we wouldn’t have to face him.

The other teams could make trouble for us if they win. — Yogi Berra

by Twnzfan on Feb 7, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions

The trade was bad

But If I were the Twins, I would have called the Red Sox bluff and pulled off the trade. Yes he would have been in the same league, but we would be better off in the long run.

by Jessy S on Feb 7, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions