Twins Farm System in 2012: Middle of the Road?

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 9:50 AM EST in News

It doesn't take long for a farm system to turn around. A solid draft or a great trade can imbibe new blood into a system, just like a bad trade or graduating players can leave a system dry and underwhelming. For the Twins it seems they've always been a middle of the road minor league franchise, but over the last few years the trademark has changed.

For the longest time that trademark was pitching. Looking at the hurlers from the turn of the millenium, a vast majority of the staff not only came through the Minnesota farm system but they were good pitchers as well. A few years later another wave of pitchers came through. But we've seen very little since. Remnants of that last wave are still around, obviously: Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins.

That was a wave we were excited about six years ago, and things have changed. There is no "next wave" of pitching on the horizon, only a player here or there. And the calling card of the system certianly isn't pitching.

On the plus side, the system is more balanced. Where years ago there were no position players of note on the rise, now our best prospects play anywhere but on the mound.

SB Nation's John Sickels recently rated the farm systems of Major League Baseball, and pplaced the Twins in the middle of the pack at number 17

Another middle of the pack organization, fairly balanced between hitting and pitching, some potential regulars with several solid role players.

ESPN's Keith Law ranked the Twins a bit higher (Insider required):

I pick on these guys for taking low-ceiling college arms with great control, but they have quietly mixed in some interesting high school bats and added a few high-impact Latin American prospects.

What's interesting is that although Minnesota is clearly a middle-of-the-road system as far as a couple of the game's more respected minor league analysts are concerned, they actually have the consensus second-best system in the AL Central. Nobody likes the White Sox minor league system (ranking dead last on both lists). Cleveland isn't much better; Detroit ranks just a tad higher. The Royals are ranked fifth (Law) and sixth (Sickels) on the two lists, and with good reason.

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It seems like the Twins top prospects just haven't been panning out recently

Gibson and Wimmers both have their issues, Hicks is still a top prospect but his progress has been slow. The fact is, most of the top ranked prospects are still in the lower levels of the system.

However, I’m really excited about this years draft, and I think the Twins farm system could start looking like one of the best in the league in the next year or so. I think they need to land either Appel or Giolito, which would give them a legitimate #1 starter prospect. Then if they are able to sign a descent number of their supplementary picks we’ll be looking at even more depth in an already deep system.

We should have a long and exciting wave of prospects start coming up in 2013 and 2014.

by 2wins87 on Feb 9, 2012 10:37 AM EST reply actions

This is an important year.

So many picks in the top 100. A good draft will bolster the system for years.

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

But I’m also really excited to see
1) how Rosario does at 2B
2) If Wimmers can come back
3) How quickly Levi can move through the system
4) How Sano does in full season
5) Hicks at AA
6) Benson getting a little more coaching from Bruno before getting called up
7) How Boyd, Boer and Harrison fare.
8) If Arcia can continue to hit as he moves up

For a middle of the road system, lot of fun stuff to look forward to.

by Gunnarthor on Feb 9, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I want Sano, Michael and Rosario to advance together

That may require holding Sano back longer than necessary. I think it will be worth it if they can keep Sano at 3B and get those players some repetitions in the same infield.

It is less important to keep outfielders together and virtually useless to keep a pitching staff together as the advance levels.

by DJL44 on Feb 9, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

The system is going to rank a lot higher a year from now...

…Sano, Rosario and Arcia will all be ranked in BA’s Top 100. Bashore will be 100% back from his injury and Wimmers will have put his problems behind him (I look for him to end his season in Rochester). Add getting Morales back along with Benson, Parmelee and Dozier being major league ready and you finally have a lot of strength at the top of the system. Plus, the number 2 overall pick and all those guys coming for Cuddy and Kubel and this system should move up to the top third.

by roger13 on Feb 9, 2012 11:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

That's exciting.

I hope you’re right and those guys start panning out.

"I wanted to do it because it's fun, it's fun to do bad things and drive into a car."

by PurplePeopleEaters on Feb 9, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Top third is probably far enough

Wouldn’t want to get too far above average. That would be unMinnesotan.

by DJL44 on Feb 9, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

That seems right to me.

Aside from the picks, part of it is just that it’s a young system. It won’t lose much of significance to MLB this year. (which of course is also why it makes sense to call it a mediocre system this year)

by Luke in MN on Feb 10, 2012 8:19 AM EST up reply actions

Teams like the Whte Sox and Detroit don't rely on their farm systems.

Don’t have any MLB-ready bats on the horizon? Just go out and sign Prince Fielder for a million bazillion dollars.

Being #2 in the AL Central isn’t really much of an accomplishment. Hopefully after this draft (and as Sano gets closer to the MLB), we’ll see the Twins farm system break the top 10 in the next few years. For now, they’re average or maybe a little below average.

[#2 North Central] Minnesota RollerGirls (1-0) vs [#6 East] Montreal Roller Derby (0-0) - Sat 3/3/2012 in the Roy Wilkins Auditorium, St. Paul MN. mnrollergirls.com

by Flip27 on Feb 9, 2012 11:53 AM EST reply actions

Recent top prospect polls on twinkietown

and bucsdugout have given me a nice opportunity to gain perspective on the Twins depth: whereas outside of the Pirates top 10 “liking” a guy in their system quickly starts feeling like an exercise in ignoring known flaws and lack of overmuch development towards perceived ceiling, even players in the lower echelons of Twins Top 50 lists can easily inspire optimism that doesn’t feel foolish.

In short, the Twins really are pretty deep when it comes to fringey, you-never-know guys who have yet to do anything to get you too down on them, and in the end that DOES make a positive difference when evaluating the system as a whole.

It’s obvious that they currently want badly for high-end guys, though. Outside of Sano and maybe Rosario, not many people are going to slap 4 or 5 stars on ANYBODY in the Twins system, and that kind of sucks.

Conversely, I would consider everybody in the PIrates top 6 before anybody but Sano from the Twins system. While the Pirates system (consequently) rates better with most every professional evaluator, and definitely has the sexier guys at the top, the Twins system feels much meatier overall.

I guess that’s the difference between drafting for floor and drafting for ceiling. And it all could “feel” infinitely different by June 1 or so. Only 22 days until 1st pitch of spring training baseball!

by tobynotjason on Feb 9, 2012 2:27 PM EST reply actions

No 5 star guys

That comes from drafting at the bottom for so long. Sano is only there because they spent more than they ever had on an international free agent. They haven’t drafted higher than 14th (Aaron Hicks) since Mauer was picked #1. They’ve turned those lower picks into more talent (Garza, Perkins, Plouffe, Span, Parmelee, Revere) than they did when they were picking at the top of the draft in the late 1990s (Adam Johnson, BJ Garbe, Ryan Mills, Mark Redman, Travis Lee, Michael Cuddyer).

I think the Twins do better at #20. Historically #20ish picks include Hunter and Knoblauch. Top picks from that era were Johnny Ard, Dave McCarty and Willie Banks.

by DJL44 on Feb 9, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

To be fair...

4 of the those 6 do NOT come from drafting high: Heredia and Marte are international signees and the Twins could have selected Josh Bell this year but the Pohlads are WAY too cheap when it comes to the draft to so much as consider going that far over slot. Robbie Grossman was a 6th round pick.

by tobynotjason on Feb 10, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions

Ranking individuals is an inexact science...

Rating entire systems is therefore exponentially (?) more difficult. I certainly can’t disagree with the ranking, as I don’t closely follow any other organizations, other than I hear from time to time about KC’s vaunted system, or Tampa’s ability to find great pitching. Great years from Arcia, Wimmers, Hicks, whomever could certainly vault the system. Horrible years from Sano and Benson and Rosario could tank it.

Its still fun to talk about!

by Han Joelo on Feb 9, 2012 5:06 PM EST reply actions