Twins 2012 PECOTA Comps via Baseball Prospectus

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 11:04 AM EST in Quick Hits

This is a fun time of year for nerdy baseball people. Fantasy baseball drafts start entering the watercooler conversations, speculation on the upcoming season is rampant, and the oracles of the baseball universe begin to unveil their fortunes for the coming season. Baseball Prospectus has unveiled their predictions for the 2012 season, and with them have listed player comparibles.

Here are a few of the more fun comps.

Joe Mauer: Mike Sweeney, Victor Martinez
Denard Span: Sam Fuld, Johnny Damon
Josh Willingham: Bob Allison
Justin Morneau: Paul Konerko, Eddie Murray, Kent Hrbek
Joe Benson: B.J. Upton, Grady Sizemore
Trevor Plouffe: Jeff Blauser, Cal Ripken Jr., Stephen Drew
Tsuyoshi Nishioka: Adam Everett, Jason Bartlett
Pedro Florimon Jr: Miguel Tejada
Eddie Rosario: Justin Upton
Miguel Sano: Robin Yount
Aaron Hicks: Grady Sizemore (again)
Max Kepler: Robin Yount (again)
Carl Pavano: Brett Saberhagen (that's for you, Bobomojo)
Jason Bulger: Brad Lidge, Lee Smith, Troy Percival
Scott Baker: Javier Vasquez
Glen Perkins: John Smiley
Anthony Slama: Jose Valverde
Terry Doyle: Brett Tomko
Manuel Soliman: Edwin Jackson

Check out the spreadsheet for the rest, but I advise you to stay away from the actual predictions themselves. They aren't pretty, friends.

Tweet Comment 19 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Can't be so bad to be Max Kepler (and Miguel Sano)

When your only comparison is a first ballot Hall of Famer.
Let’s hope Slama starts acting all funny on the mount too, now that would be entertaining.

by twinscrazy_german on Feb 9, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions

Everyone has three comps.

I just picked a few of the fun ones.

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Do you need some sort of membership over at BP?

Because I can’t access the spreadsheet.

by twinscrazy_german on Feb 9, 2012 11:28 AM EST reply actions

Yes, you do need a membership.

Tisn’t free.

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions

Trevor Plouffe as Cal Ripken Jr?

I mean, I like Plouffe and all, but seriously, Ripken? Comparable because they’re both white and Plouffe sometimes pretends to play shortstop and… ???

by ColossusOfRhode on Feb 9, 2012 12:09 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, I'm not even going to pretent to know where they got those comps from.

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

* pretend

by Jesse on Feb 9, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I thought these comparison tools were big on using age

Its one thing when Delmon Young got high comps because he was so young and tore up the minors, but Plouffe was 25 last year. Through age 25, Ripken had ROY, MVP and four silver sluggers.

On the flip-side it looks like they do want to compare every 18-year-old to Robin Yount. I know he’s a famous success story, but he can’t be the only guy who hit well in low-A ball at age 17.

I think BP wants to sell some subscriptions. :-)

by DavidRF on Feb 9, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions

Someone call Slama

and tell him to get to work on his moves, stat! Can you imagine a name like Slama and erratic dance moves like Valverde? Pssh. Call the fun Police.

by jtsanderson on Feb 9, 2012 2:45 PM EST reply actions

Bulger

How did I miss that signing? He was pretty good last year for Houston. He could be that other righty to go along with Zumaya.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 9, 2012 4:33 PM EST reply actions

You must be thinking of someone else

He’s been with the Angels the past few years.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bulgeja01.shtml

Should be in the battle for the last BP spot, though.

by John_Locke on Feb 9, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

I just clicked the link that Jesse posted

Good K rates. Though the numbers in your link don’t match the ones in Jesse’s link. Still, he’s the best pitcher in the group with Burnett, Waldrop and others.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 9, 2012 7:45 PM EST reply actions

The SBNation numbers more closely resemble his minor league lines

Looks like only the first team per year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bulger001jas

Quirky little bug there in the SBNation software. I’d be happier if they just forwarded us to another site then try to reinvent the wheel.

by DavidRF on Feb 9, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

That could be entertaining in a way too.

I’d be happier if they just forwarded us to another site then try to reinvent the wheel.

"Don't take life for granted, because tomorrow isn't promised to any one of us." -Kirby Puckett
"Tell Gardy there's nobody around to protect him now." Ozzie Guillen

by less cowbell, more 'neau on Feb 9, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

rimshot

I'm a proud fan of the Minnesota Twins and Dallas Cowboys!
"Life is precious and time is a key element. Let’s make every moment count and help those who have a greater need than our own." – Harmon Killebrew
I would like to see Dallas vs the Giants on Thanksgiving, Make it happen NFL!

by Jessy S on Feb 10, 2012 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

PECOTA's pretty high on Mauer and Morneau considering very bad 2011s

Mauer’s the #11 hitter in baseball, and Morneau’s #30. Span projects to have elite CF defense with respectable hitting. Willingham projects about 2 wins better than Cuddyer with significantly better hitting and fielding. Some of the depth pickups seem like they could be useful: Towles, Doumit, Burroughs, Carroll. Sort of hates on our younger guys though: Plouffe, Revere, Parmelee, Benson, Nishioka are all down around replacement level. Butera projects at a robust .215/.257/.304!

PItching’s a little scarier. Baker, Liriano, and Pavano all project decently, but none in the top 50.

by Luke in MN on Feb 10, 2012 8:50 AM EST reply actions

Injuries

I think you need to look at their whole track records rather than last years’ numbers.

"You're thinking too much. Just have fun." -- Bennie "The Jet" Rodriguez in Sandlot

by cmathewson on Feb 10, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

That is true

Historically, Mauer and Morneau have been lights out for the Twins, plus let’s not forget that Morneau was headed for an MVP type season in 2010 had he not had his concussion.

by Jessy S on Feb 10, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I think the projections are justified based on the track records.

Well, in Morneau’s case it’s probably justified to be a more pessimistic than PECOTA, since I don’t think PECOTA really gets how injured he is, but if he’s healthy, it’s probably a good forecast.

by Luke in MN on Feb 10, 2012 7:48 PM EST up reply actions